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  Talk Elections
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  IA PrimD: Iowa State University: Clinton up 2 in IA according to ISU
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Author Topic: IA PrimD: Iowa State University: Clinton up 2 in IA according to ISU  (Read 1284 times)
Flake
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« on: January 25, 2016, 11:01:41 pm »
« edited: January 25, 2016, 11:04:17 pm by Flo »

New Poll: Iowa President by Iowa State University on 2016-01-21

Hillary: 47% (-2)
Bernie: 45% (+17)
O'Malley: 1% (-2)
Undecided: 7%

This is also with a sample that only had 3% of all respondents under 30 years of age.

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2016, 11:40:47 pm »

Looks like a trash poll but that swing is hilarious.

How could they find Cruz with such a big lead?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2016, 11:41:49 pm »

Weird poll.
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Ted Bessell
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« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2016, 11:44:21 pm »

Rand at 6.9%? Junk poll... or a miracle in the making? #RandMentum #StandWithRand obviously kidding
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cxs018
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« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2016, 11:45:46 pm »

Republicans:

Cruz 26%
Trump 19%
Carson 13%
Rubio 12%
Paul 7%
Bush 4%
Huckabee 4%
Fiorina 1%
Santorum <1%
Christie <1%
Kasich <1%
Gilmore 0%
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Ronnie
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« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2016, 11:47:12 pm »

Call me crazy, but I would not be surprised to see Cruz win Iowa by a similar margin on caucus night.  They might be on to something.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2016, 11:47:50 pm »

Rand at 6.9%? Junk poll... or a miracle in the making? #RandMentum #StandWithRand obviously kidding

If he really surges in these final days, maybe he can come close to getting a third of the percentage that his old man did!
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2016, 11:49:51 pm »

Poll was in the field from Jan. 5-22, so any recent momentum from any of the candidates is going to be washed out by the fact that it's being averaged with responses from early/mid-January.
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Ted Bessell
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« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2016, 11:51:12 pm »

Rand at 6.9%? Junk poll... or a miracle in the making? #RandMentum #StandWithRand obviously kidding

If he really surges in these final days, maybe he can come close to getting a third of the percentage that his old man did!

Well, at least he'd be better positioned for 2020, because that's all the hope I can hold on to Tongue
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2016, 11:52:14 pm »

Poll was in the field from Jan. 5-22, so any recent momentum from any of the candidates is going to be washed out by the fact that it's being averaged with responses from early/mid-January.

This basically means that this poll is junk. You can't stay in the field that long and get a scientific result.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2016, 11:55:41 pm »

Poll was in the field from Jan. 5-22, so any recent momentum from any of the candidates is going to be washed out by the fact that it's being averaged with responses from early/mid-January.

This basically means that this poll is junk. You can't stay in the field that long and get a scientific result.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: January 26, 2016, 02:16:18 am »


Junk poll!
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2016, 04:14:17 am »

According to FOX' criteria it counts IIRC
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #13 on: January 26, 2016, 06:09:08 am »

The Rand numbers are probably the most accurate part of these polls
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #14 on: January 26, 2016, 06:22:35 am »

Sandersmentum!
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bigedlb
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« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2016, 09:01:56 am »

Poll was in the field from Jan. 5-22, so any recent momentum from any of the candidates is going to be washed out by the fact that it's being averaged with responses from early/mid-January.

. Yeah.  Too long a period,  but Cruz supporters will tout this..The midpoint of the survey is about 1/13.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2016, 09:11:34 am »

Uni polls aren't always the greatest.
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emailking
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« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2016, 11:05:15 am »

Poll was in the field from Jan. 5-22, so any recent momentum from any of the candidates is going to be washed out by the fact that it's being averaged with responses from early/mid-January.

This basically means that this poll is junk. You can't stay in the field that long and get a scientific result.
It might not produce a data point that you're interested in, but it's still a scientific result, (or at least can be if done properly). It would represent the average support for each candidate over the time period in question.
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bigedlb
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« Reply #18 on: January 26, 2016, 12:33:42 pm »

Poll was in the field from Jan. 5-22, so any recent momentum from any of the candidates is going to be washed out by the fact that it's being averaged with responses from early/mid-January.

This basically means that this poll is junk. You can't stay in the field that long and get a scientific result.
It might not produce a data point that you're interested in, but it's still a scientific result, (or at least can be if done properly). It would represent the average support for each candidate over the time period in question.
this poll is fine if you put a data point at the midpoint of the survey period as I do a graph.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #19 on: January 26, 2016, 12:49:14 pm »

Paul has been showing up in 5th in a lot of IA polls in the last week, probably getting him into the debate. He is having a mini resurgence in Iowa.
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cxs018
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« Reply #20 on: January 26, 2016, 01:04:47 pm »


The poll was conducted for 2.5 weeks. Please stop being so hackish.
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #21 on: January 27, 2016, 04:56:40 am »

http://whotv.com/2016/01/25/clinton-cruz-lead-among-iowa-caucusgoers-in-who-hd-iowa-state-university-poll/

This one look different than a lot of polls.

Clinton 47
Sanders 45



"Jeb Bush (3.8 percent), Mike Huckabee (3.7 percent) and Carly Fiorina (1.1 percent). Rick Santorum, Chris Christie and John Kasich registered less than 1 percent"

The new ISU/WHO-HD poll was compiled through phone interviews with 722 registered voters Jan. 5-22

And looking at the day, I guess this is why.  Cruz was leading in early January.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #22 on: January 27, 2016, 05:09:59 am »

Yeah, this poll was discussed in this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=227333.0

As noted in that thread, the time baseline is remarkably long.
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jfern
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« Reply #23 on: January 27, 2016, 05:21:57 am »

The Democratic side isn't too weird, though.
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #24 on: January 27, 2016, 05:24:57 am »

I guess you can delete the thread.
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