Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

About 73% of the vote in for PR it is

LDP      36.2%
DP        20.7%
KP        13.8%
JCP       10.4%
ORA        9.8%
SDP        2.6%
PLP         1.7%
PJK         1.2%
NPB        1.1%
NPR        1.0%
VPA        0.7%
HRP        0.7%

LDP-KP at exactly 50%.

[jaichind]

About 79% of the vote in for PR it is

            Vote       Projected seats
LDP      36.1%            19
DP        20.7%           11
KP        13.8%             7
JCP       10.5%             5
ORA        9.6%             5
SDP        2.7%             1
PLP         1.8%
PJK         1.3%
NPB        1.1%
NPR        1.0%
VPA        0.8%
HRP        0.7%

LDP-KP below 50%

[jaichind]

Map of district results

They labeled the Ind(LDP) winner in 神奈川(Kanagawa) as LDP

[jaichind]

About 81% of the vote in for PR it is

        My predicted
          Vote Share    Vote       Projected seats  
LDP       31.00%      36.1%            19
DP         24.50%      20.7%           11
KP         13.50%      13.8%             7
JCP        13.50%      10.5%             5
ORA         9.50%       9.6%             5
SDP         2.50%       2.7%             1
PLP         1.50%        1.8%
PJK         1.00%        1.3%
NPB        1.00%        1.1%
NPR        0.50%        1.0%
VPA        1.00%        0.8%
HRP        0.50%        0.7%

I underestimated LDP and overestimated DP and JCP

[jaichind]

If the PR vote does not change, and it will to the disadvantage of LDP, LDP (including Ind(LDP))+KP+ORA will get exactly 78 seats which is exactly what is need for LDP+KP+ORA-PJK to be 162 seats.  If the Ind(LDP) does not caucus with LDP then the LDP+KP+ORA+PJK bloc will be at 161 seats, just short of 2/3 majority.

[jaichind]

Under the rule of "If you win you are LDP."  The ex-YP incumbent Ind(LDP) winner of 神奈川(Kanagawa) has been retroactively nominated by the LDP as opposed to a candidate that LDP recommended.  I guess he will join the LDP caucus. 

[jaichind]

About 86% of the vote in for PR it is

        My predicted
          Vote Share    Vote       Projected seats   
LDP       31.00%      36.1%            19
DP         24.50%      20.8%           11
KP         13.50%      13.8%             7
JCP        13.50%      10.4%             5
ORA         9.50%       9.5%             5
SDP         2.50%       2.7%             1
PLP         1.50%        1.8%
PJK         1.00%        1.3%
NPB        1.00%        1.1%
NPR        0.50%        1.0%
VPA        1.00%        0.8%
HRP        0.50%        0.7%

[jaichind]

In 鹿児島(Kagoshima) where the LDP easily beat the opposition backed independent, the LDP backed incumbent was defeated by a DP-PLP-SDP-JCP backed candidate running on an anti-nuclear platform.  The anti-nuclear sections of the local Kagoshima LDP also defected and help to bring about the defeat of the LDP backed incumbant.

[jaichind]

About 89% of the vote in for PR it is

        My predicted
          Vote Share    Vote       Projected seats  
LDP       31.00%      36.1%            19
DP         24.50%      20.8%           11
KP         13.50%      13.6%             7
JCP        13.50%      10.6%             5
ORA         9.50%       9.4%             5
SDP         2.50%       2.7%             1
PLP         1.50%        1.8%
PJK         1.00%        1.3%
NPB        1.00%        1.1%
NPR        0.50%        1.0%
VPA        1.00%        0.8%
HRP        0.50%        0.7%

It is a battle between JCP and ORA for the final seat.  JCP has to gain enough relative votes over ORA to make it 6-4 instead of 5-5.  PLP also has a chance to squeeze in to win a seat from ORA.  Rest of the seats are a lock.

[jaichind]

Even with retroactively nominating a winning independent LDP will win 56 seats, one short of a majority by itself in the Upper House.   

[jaichind]

HRP did pretty well in many district seats by winning above 2% on at least a dozen of them.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

1. Even if LDP-KP-ORA did slightly underperform, this is still a disaster.
2. Northern Japan best Japan.

[jaichind]

-> Now that elections are over Abe reveals that he does desire Constitutional revision.   It seems his main obstacle would be to get past KP.

Abe hints at eagerness for Constitution amendment following election
TOKYO, July 11 Kyodo
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Sunday indicated his eagerness to accelerate parliamentary discussions toward revising Japan's pacifist Constitution, building on the gains of the ruling coalition and other pro-amendment forces in the upper house election.
"We hope to question the public on an amendment in a national referendum after a convergence of views in discussions (at the Diet constitution commissions)," Abe, who is also head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, said on a television program.
But Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of the LDP's coalition ally Komeito, known for its dovish stance on defense issues, seemed less eager than the LDP on the issue, saying in a press conference, "I don't expect the issue of constitutional amendments to suddenly make progress."
He also expressed reluctance to touch on the war-renouncing Article 9 for the time being, apparently concerned that it could trigger a backlash from the public.
The upper house election provided a golden opportunity for Abe to push for constitutional amendments, which require two-thirds majorities in the two Diet chambers before being put to a national referendum. The ruling coalition already has such a majority in the lower house.
While the LDP largely refrained from putting the issue at the forefront of its election campaign, the main opposition Democratic Party and other opposition parties sought to warn voters that allowing the pro-revision bloc to reach the two-thirds mark could lead to the rewriting of Article 9, which is believed to be Abe's ultimate goal.
But as election results became clear, Democratic Party leader Katsuya Okada suggested that his party may not refuse to join the Diet discussions once they start, saying, "I don't have any objections to activating the commissions."
Meanwhile, Japanese Communist Party leader Kazuo Shii said in a radio program, "We shouldn't say this election outcome shows that the public gave a mandate for constitutional revisions."

[jaichind]

About 92% of the vote in for PR it is

        My predicted
          Vote Share    Vote       Projected seats  
LDP       31.00%      36.0%            19
DP         24.50%      20.9%           11
KP         13.50%      13.6%             7
JCP        13.50%      10.6%             5
ORA         9.50%       9.4%             4
SDP         2.50%       2.7%             1
PLP         1.50%        1.9%             1
PJK         1.00%        1.3%
NPB        1.00%        1.1%
NPR        0.50%        1.0%
VPA        1.00%        0.8%
HRP        0.50%        0.7%

PLP surges to 1.9% and captures a seat from ORA.  We will need to see if this can be kept up.  If so the number of seats Ozawa has capture this election (3) would be greater than any reasonable hope even he would have bad.

[jaichind]

About 95% of the vote in for PR it is

        My predicted
          Vote Share    Vote       Projected seats   
LDP       31.00%      36.0%            19
DP         24.50%      20.9%           11
KP         13.50%      13.6%             7
JCP        13.50%      10.7%             5
ORA         9.50%       9.3%             4
SDP         2.50%       2.7%             1
PLP         1.50%        1.9%             1
PJK         1.00%        1.3%
NPB        1.00%        1.1%
NPR        0.50%        1.0%
VPA        1.00%        0.8%
HRP        0.50%        0.7%

Tiny chance of LDP losing its 19th seat to either DP or ORA but unlikely.  Most likely this seat distribution is it.   If so then LDP-KP-ORA will be at 77 seats, one short of 162 for the LDP-KP-ORA-PJK bloc.  Of course there are 6 pro-Constitutional change independents as well so if Abe insist on getting Constitutional change regardless of political cost he could do it. 

[jaichind]

About 97.5% of the vote in for PR it is

        My predicted
          Vote Share    Vote       Projected seats  
LDP       31.00%      35.94%         19
DP         24.50%      20.95%         11
KP         13.50%      13.58%           7
JCP        13.50%      10.71%          5
ORA         9.50%       9.22%           4
SDP         2.50%       2.74%           1
PLP         1.50%        1.89%           1
PJK         1.00%        1.30%
NPB        1.00%        1.15%
NPR        0.50%        1.02%
VPA        1.00%        0.82%
HRP        0.50%        0.66%

LDP-KP down to around 49.5%.  Might go a bit lower but that is it.

[jaichind]

About 99.8% of the vote in for PR it is

        My predicted
          Vote Share    Vote       Projected seats   
LDP       31.00%      35.91%         19
DP         24.50%      20.98%         11
KP         13.50%      13.52%           7
JCP        13.50%      10.75%          5
ORA         9.50%       9.20%           4
SDP         2.50%       2.74%           1
PLP         1.50%        1.91%           1
PJK         1.00%        1.31%
NPB        1.00%        1.15%
NPR        0.50%        1.03%
VPA        1.00%        0.83%
HRP        0.50%        0.65%

LDP-KP down to around 49.4%.   It is 0.5% higher than in 2013.

[jaichind]

So the final result is

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 21-11

                       PR          PR vote share          District              Total                                     
LDP                19                 35.9%                36                     55
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     1                       1 (retroactively nominated by LDP)
KP                    7                 13.5%                  7                     14
ORA                 4                    9.2%                 3                       7
DP                 11                  21.0%                21                    32
SDP                 1                    2.7%                 0                       1
PLP                  1                    1.9%                 0                       1
JCP                  5                  10.7%                 1                       6
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 161, 1 less than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 167, 5 more than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.

[jaichind]

Asahi exit poll on single member districts based on party ID and vote for LDP/opposition



LDP voters voted 86/11 for LDP as expected
It shows a high level of defection from KP voters which voted 66/24 LDP/opposition
It also shows that ORA voted 34/46 in favor of opposition.
DP, JCP, SDP, PLP all only voted LDP in single or near single digits
Non-aligned also lean opposition 34/56

[jaichind]

Someone posted a chart of seat count projection for each party based on turnout.   OPP is opposition bloc of SDP+PLP+anti-LDP independents.  While I do not agree with exact number it does give a good sense of the relative strengths of each party with different ranges of turnout.

        DP JCP ORA LDP KP OPP LDP+  Constitution change
45% 21  10  *6  65  15  *4    80               86
46% 22  *9  *7  64  15  *4    79               86
47% 23  *9  *7  63  15  *4    78               85
48% 25  *8  *8  61  14  *4    75               83
49% 26  *8  *8  60  14  *5    74               82
50% 27  *8  *8  58  14  *6    72               80
51% 28  *8  *8  57  14  *6    71               79
52% 30  *7  *8  56  14  *6    70               78
53% 31  *7  *8  55  14  *6    69               77
54% 32  *7  *9  54  13  *6    67               76
55% 34  *6  *9  53  13  *6    66               75
56% 35  *6  10  52  12  *6    64               74
57% 36  *6  10  51  12  *6    63               73
58% 37  *7  *9  50  12  *6    62               71
59% 37  *7  10  49  12  *6    61               71
60% 38  *7  *9  49  12  *6    61               70           

Turnout ended up being 54.7%, which if we do a lookup on this chart, shows that this chart is relatively accurate.  54.7% turnout means we should take the average of the 54% and 55% projection which gives us.

LDP -> 53.5 -> actual result is 56
KP -> 13 -> actual result is 14
ORA -> 9 -> actual result is 7
DP -> 33 -> actual result if 32
JCP -> 6.5 -> actual result is 6
OPPN -> 6 -> actual result is 6 (4 opposition backed independents, 1 SDP, 1 PLP)

This projection is even closer then at first inspection.  LDP PR seat count of 19 is very marginal. A shift of 0.1% from LDP to ORA or even DP would have led LDP to lose a PR seat to ORA.  So the election could have easily been LDP 55 ORA 8.

One way or another the increase in turnout from 2013 seems to have a greater relative tilt toward LDP than CW.  For the the opposition benefited from greater turnout but less than expected.  This is most likely because of the fiasco two weeks before the election the JCP policy chief draws fire for saying Japan’s defense budget is money to ‘kill people’. He had to resign but the damage was done.  JCP underperformed and the entire opposition benefited less then it could from greater turnout. 

[jaichind]

Final PR vote result is which I also include my vote share prediction along with what I computed to the consensus CW medium vote share prediction

        My predicted  CW Predicted
          Vote Share     Vote Share   Vote           Seats  
LDP       31.00%       36.00%     35.91%        19
DP         24.50%       21.50%     20.98%        11
KP         13.50%       14.00%    13.52%           7
JCP        13.50%       13.00%    10.75%           5
ORA         9.50%        7.75%       9.20%           4
SDP         2.50%        2.00%       2.74%           1
PLP         1.50%         1.25%       1.91%           1
PJK         1.00%         1.25%       1.31%
NPB        1.00%         1.25%       1.15%
NPR        0.50%         0.50%       1.03%
VPA        1.00%         1.00%       0.83%
HRP        0.50%         0.50%       0.65%

The CW prediction pretty much nailed LDP and DP vote shares whereas I was wildly off overestimating DP and underestimating LDP.  I pretty much got the KP vote share exactly although CW was pretty close too.  Both CW and myself overestimated JCP but more so me.   I was much closer on ORA SDP and PLP.  CW was more correct in making the call the PJK would be the largest of the micro-parties and both of us underestimated NPR.  

I guess it is back to the drawing board for me in my method of adding 1%-2% to the NHK poll to derive the LDP-KP vote share.  The exit polls did indicate that in this election the independents broke for the opposition in the district vote (especially the 1- seaters) but voted LDP in the PR section. Of course my methodology is predicated on the independents mostly voting for opposition parties.  So it is easy to see why my method failed.  We will have to see if this is an one off or a trend.   

[jaichind]

In this election there are 45 separate election districts (32 1- seats, 4 2- seats, 5 3- seats, 3 4- seats, 1 6- seats).  Out of these 45, looking at the many dozen of different projections from media outfits, political analysts, and various posters in political discussion boards, 21 of them there is near unanimous view what the result would be.  24 of them had enough different projections to make them somewhat unknown what the result might be.  Out of the 24, 14 district projection were close enough to 50/50 as to make it quite volatile while in 10 districts a solid majority of the projections were in one direction even if a minority went some other way.

Out of my district projections, I made 3 mistakes: namely in 神奈川(Kanagawa), 兵庫(Hyōgo) and 大阪   (Osaka).

Looking through all the different projections I could not find one equaled or had fewer mistakes than what I had.  This is mainly because I called all 32 1- district results correctly.  The CW medium guess of all these projections had 5 mistakes: 北海道(Hokkaido), 青森(Aomori), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 山梨(Yamanashi) and 大分(Ōita).  If you take a momentum version of the CW where one weighs more recent projections greater,  北海道(Hokkaido) and 青森(Aomori) projections would filt to be correct but the same methodology would also flip 愛知(Aichi), 大阪(Osaka) and 東京(Tokyo) which would produce 6 mistakes overall.  Looking at the media projections they all pretty much have 6-7 mistakes.  The closest projection I could find that came to beating me is a political analyst which had 4 mistakes: 山形   (Yamagata), 新潟(Niigata), 愛知(Aichi), and 大分(Ōita).  He actually got 神奈川(Kanagawa) correct which was impressive.  His PR seat distribution was also almost spot on.  All in all his projection overall was superior to my given my flop in the PR section but my district projection seems to top all the others.  In fact, my projection even manage to beat the NHK exit poll.  The NHK exit poll in the end managed to make 5 mistakes: 北海道(Hokkaido), 福島(Fukushima), 新潟(Niigata), 愛媛(Ehime) and 大分(Ōita).

 

[FredLindq]

What about the four indpendets? Who are they? 2 PLP why are they put as independents? A DP why put as independent? And what is OA? Okinawa social masses??
The LDP ind. Is a former YP member now member off the LDP group? Mr. Nakanishi?! Will be caucus with LDP again?!

[jaichind]

A look at the way KP PR vote is distributed gives you an idea of the organizational power of KP.  Just to set the stage, it is useful to give a reminder of how the Upper House PR vote works.  A voter could vote for a party or by writing in the name of the candidate (or even writing in the name of the party.)  All of them will accrue to the party which will determine how many seats a party will get.  But which members of a party are elected are based on how many personal votes a candidate on the party list receives.

Now let's take a look at KP: 
1) 7,572,961 accrued to KP which was good for 13.52%

Of which

2) 3,881,290 votes were cast for KP as a party
3) 3,691,671 votes were cast for a candidate of the KP party list

What is interesting is to look at the vote distribution of the votes cast for a party candidate.  Ranked in order of number of votes they are:

942,266
612,066
606,889
605,225
478,175
388,474
  18,571
    7,489
    5,878
    5,666
    4,334
    3,497
    3,377
    3,227
    2,560
    2,444
    1,533

Note that after the 6th candidate the vote completely drops off to close to zero right away.  It is clear what is going on here. When KP was forming its election strategy months ago, they came up with a target number of seats they want to target to win on the PR section.  It was 6.  Then the orders went out to each township in Japan giving orders to each voter that is directly controlled by the KP machine on which exact candidate each person will vote for with a goal that all the votes are targeted should be for one of the 6 candidates. 

About half of the KP votes (around 3.7 million) were cast this way which are usually those who are very active in the  Soka Gakkai.  About the other half (another 3.9 million) are cast by friends and familiy of these hardcare Soka Gakkai members or just some floating voters that might agree with the KP agenda. 

The purpose of doing this is for KP to show its power to the LDP.  The message is: We control down the each voter at least 3.7 million such votes.  They can then influence their friends and family.  Do not cross us. You need us to win.

[jaichind]

What about the four indpendets? Who are they? 2 PLP why are they put as independents? A DP why put as independent? And what is OA? Okinawa social masses??
The LDP ind. Is a former YP member now member off the LDP group? Mr. Nakanishi?! Will be caucus with LDP again?!

Sure.  The 5 independents elected were 4 for the opposition camp and 1 for the LDP camp.  This election DP-PLP-SDP-JCP decide to unite and nominate one candidate in all 32 1- member districts.  To make it easier for the supporters from these disparate parties to back a common candidate, in 16 of these seats the common candidate would run as an independent.  This is mostly done if the strongest candidate is a non-DP member.  Running as an independent would make it easier for DP voter to vote for the common candidate.  Or the LDP is so strong that the common candidate is someone that is not from DP to keep the net at wide as possible.  4 such independents won.  2 with PLP background, 1 with AO (All Okinawa which is a new pro-Okinawa Governor bloc that is dedicated to getting rid of the US base there) and an independent with a DP (or DPJ background), 舟山 康江 (Funayama Yasue).  She left the DPJ back in 2012 to form GW but folded the party. She is pretty much de facto DP these days.

The one pro-LDP independent winner  is 中西健治(Nakanishi Kenji) who won on the YP ticket in 2010.  He ran with LDP "recommendation" this election.  After he won due to ORA tactical voting and lack of DP-JCP tactical voting he was retroactively nominated by LDP and will be part of the LDP and LDP caucus.  This is part of the logic "If you win you are LDP."  If he had lost he would be another nobody as far as LDP is concerned.