Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

NHK called 大分(Ōita) for DP !! LDP is ahead 48.9 to 47.1 but I guess NHK knows what it is talking about.  NHK also called 愛媛(Ehime)  for LDP.
So far I projected every 1- member district correctly.  Only seat left is 青森(Aomori) which I projected for DP but it seems LDP should take it.

[jaichind]

NHK calls 青森(Aomori) for DP !!   My projection for the 1- seat district was a clean sweep of getting all 32 seats correctly !!! OK About 20 of the 32 were obvious but still I am pleased at this.

[jaichind]

About 4% of the vote in for PR it is

Still ultra early PR results

LDP      40.7%
DP        21.5%
KP        14.3%
JCP         9.0%
ORA        6.9%
SDP        2.7%
PLP         1.4%
PJK         0.8%
NPR        0.6%

LDP-KP will go down over time.

[jaichind]

In 東京(Tokyo) with 49% of the vote in it is

DP               19.6%
LDP             15.6%
KP               13.7%
JCP              11.3%
LDP             10.8%
DP                9.0%
ORA              8.1%
DP rebel        4.5% 
Ind (PLP)      3.3%
SDP              0.9%
PJK               0.9%
VPA              0.7%

Looks like DP should pull this out

[jaichind]

In 神奈川(Kanagawa) with 51% of the vote in it is

LDP             25.3%
KP               16.5%
DP               13.8%
Ind(LDP)      13.3%
DP               11.8%
JCP              11.7%
ORA               4.6%
SDP               1.4%
PJK                0.8%

Utter lack of tactical voting will most likely doom DP-JCP.  Unless the rest of the vote has a strong bias in favor of the DP or JCP the Ind(LDP) candidate will win the 4th seat.

[jaichind]

About 6% of the vote in for PR it is

LDP      40.3%
DP        21.7%
KP        14.4%
JCP         9.3%
ORA        7.0%
SDP        2.6%
PLP         1.4%
PJK         0.8%
NPR        0.6%

LDP-KP will go down over time.

[jaichind]

NHK calls the last seat for DP who beats back ORA.    Only 4th seat of  神奈川(Kanagawa)  left not called.

[jaichind]

NHK calls the 4th 神奈川(Kanagawa) seat for Ind (LDP).  All district seat called.

I got all of the district seat right except for

神奈川(Kanagawa)  -> I called for JCP to win the 4th seat instead of Ind(LDP)
大阪(Osaka) -> I called for JCP to win the 4th seat instead of ORA
兵庫(Hyōgo) -> I called the DP to win the 3rd seat instead of KP.

All of them went wrong due to poor tactical voting by DP-JCP which I overestimated.  They did a better job in 北海道(Hokkaido) but did a poor job in Tokyo where it did not hurt them although it could have.

[jaichind]

About 8% of the vote in for PR it is

LDP      40.1%
DP        21.8%
KP        14.0%
JCP         9.5%
ORA        6.9%
SDP        2.5%
PLP         1.4%
PJK         1.0%
NPB        0.9%
NPR        0.7%
HRP        0.7%
VPA        0.5%

LDP-KP will go down over time.

[jaichind]

In 神奈川(Kanagawa) with 72% of the vote in it is

LDP             24.5%
KP               16.0%
DP               13.9%
Ind(LDP)      13.2%
JCP              12.0%
DP               11.6%
ORA               4.9%
SDP               1.6%
PJK                1.0%

The DP-JCP vote share would make sense if their goal is to win 3 out of the 4 seats.  But the best they can do is 2 out of 4 so this vote distribution is disastrous

[jaichind]

About 11% of the vote in for PR it is

LDP      39.4%
DP        21.5%
KP        14.5%
JCP         9.7%
ORA        7.1%
SDP        2.5%
PLP         1.4%
PJK         1.0%
NPB        1.0%
NPR        0.7%
HRP        0.7%
VPA        0.5%

LDP-KP will go down over time.

[jaichind]

About 13% of the vote in for PR it is

LDP      38.9%
DP        21.0%
KP        14.4%
JCP         9.9%
ORA        7.8%
SDP        2.5%
PLP         1.5%
PJK         1.0%
NPB        1.0%
NPR        0.7%
HRP        0.7%
VPA        0.6%

LDP-KP will go down over time.

[jaichind]

About 15% of the vote in for PR it is

LDP      38.9%
DP        20.9%
KP        14.4%
JCP       10.1%
ORA        7.8%
SDP        2.5%
PLP         1.5%
PJK         1.1%
NPB        1.0%
NPR        0.7%
HRP        0.7%
VPA        0.6%

LDP-KP will go down over time.

[jaichind]

About 18% of the vote in for PR it is

LDP      38.6%
DP        20.9%
KP        14.4%
JCP       10.2%
ORA        7.7%
SDP        2.5%
PLP         1.6%
PJK         1.1%
NPB        1.0%
NPR        0.8%
HRP        0.7%
VPA        0.6%

[jaichind]

At this rate LDP-KP should be headed toward a PR vote share of around 49%, about the same as 2013.

[jaichind]

About 22% of the vote in for PR it is

LDP      38.1%
DP        20.9%
KP        14.6%
JCP       10.5%
ORA        7.8%
SDP        2.5%
PLP         1.6%
PJK         1.1%
NPB        1.0%
NPR        0.7%
HRP        0.7%
VPA        0.6%

[jaichind]

About 25% of the vote in for PR it is

LDP      37.8%
DP        20.8%
KP        14.4%
JCP       10.4%
ORA        8.2%
SDP        2.6%
PLP         1.6%
PJK         1.1%
NPB        1.0%
NPR        0.8%
HRP        0.7%
VPA        0.6%

[jaichind]

About 29% of the vote in for PR it is

LDP      37.9%
DP        21.0%
KP        14.2%
JCP       10.3%
ORA        8.1%
SDP        2.6%
PLP         1.6%
PJK         1.1%
NPB        1.0%
NPR        0.9%
HRP        0.7%
VPA        0.6%

[jaichind]

About 32% of the vote in for PR it is

LDP      37.8%
DP        21.0%
KP        14.1%
JCP       10.1%
ORA        8.3%
SDP        2.7%
PLP         1.6%
PJK         1.1%
NPB        1.1%
NPR        0.9%
HRP        0.7%
VPA        0.6%

At this rate LDP-KP might be headed toward 50% on the PR, exceeding 2013.  Amazing.

[jaichind]

About 59% of the vote in for PR it is

LDP      36.8%
DP        21.0%
KP        13.9%
JCP       10.3%
ORA        9.1%
SDP        2.7%
PLP         1.7%
PJK         1.2%
NPB        1.1%
NPR        0.9%
HRP        0.7%
VPA        0.7%

[Antonio the Sixth]

...this is bad, isn't it?

[jaichind]

About 62% of the vote in for PR it is

LDP      36.5%
DP        20.7%
KP        13.8%
JCP       10.2%
ORA        9.8%
SDP        2.6%
PLP         1.7%
PJK         1.2%
NPB        1.1%
NPR        0.9%
HRP        0.7%
VPA        0.7%

[jaichind]

LDP-KP most likely will fall below 50% especially when Tokyo start coming in.  JCP totally under performed.

[jaichind]

...this is bad, isn't it?

Well, most projections had LDP-KP-ORA getting to at least 78 to form a LDP-KP-ORA-PJK Constitutional revision bloc.  It seems that LDP-KP-ORA might get to 78 but not more.  So relative to most projections LDP-KP-ORA underperformed a bit.

[jaichind]

About 71% of the vote in for PR it is

LDP      36.3%
DP        20.6%
KP        13.9%
JCP       10.3%
ORA        9.9%
SDP        2.6%
PLP         1.7%
PJK         1.2%
NPB        1.1%
NPR        1.0%
VPA        0.7%
HRP        0.7%

Best guess right now is that LDP-KP will end up with 49.5%.