Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

ANN exit poll

LDP  52-63
DP    24-33
KP    11-15
JCP    5-11
ORA   7-9

[jaichind]

Is is that only half the seats are up for election, or that polls have only closed in some areas? Sorry for the dumb n00b question.

Only half are up for election

[jaichind]

One miss for me already.  NHK projects that in 大阪(Osaka) it will be LDP KP ORA ORA with the JCP losing out from winning the 4th and last seat.  I guess the DP tactical voting for JCP did not materialize.

[jaichind]

In 愛知(Aichi) both NHK and Asahi project LDP KP DP DP.  JCP and ORA/TCJ plans to capture the 4th seat failed.

[jaichind]

Looking at 大阪(Osaka)  exit polls



It seems what took place was swing from LDP-KP (red and pink) to ORA (yellow) plus ineffective JCP-DP (purple and blue) tactical voting gives ORA 2 seats.

[jaichind]

東京(Tokyo) exit polls show DP LDP KP JCP LDP with DP with a slight lead over ORA for the last seat (I got this one right if it holds.)  神奈川(Kanagawa) exit polls show LDP KP DP with LDP-backed independent with a slight lead over JCP (I got this one wrong if this holds)

[jaichind]

Looks like 秋田(Akita) got called for LDP pretty quickly.  I had LDP winning but thought it would be close.  Looks like it is not.  Other than opposition winning 3 1- member seats.  All the know battleground states are not called yet.  Some of the early exit polls does seem to give the opposition the edge in most of them.  奈良(Nara) is not called yet which is a surprise.  Seems that one would be closer than expected.

[jaichind]

Chart of various exit polls



LDP-KP at around 71-73

[jaichind]

兵庫(Hyōgo) exit poll


 
Show that it will most likely be LDP (red) ORA (yellow) KP (pink)  with DP (blue) missing beating KP like I predicted.  It seems some but not enough tactical voting by JCP took place.

[jaichind]

As far as party support exit poll seems to give LDP-KP a similar figure as 2013 with DP and JCP growing from 2013



LDP   42  -> 41
KP      6   ->  6
DP    12   -> 16 (in 2013 DPJ)
JCP     5   ->  6
ORA    6   -> 5   (in 2013 JRP)

[jaichind]

If you go with NHK exit polls for 1- seat districts it will be LDP 23 opposition 9

Opposition will win 青森(Aomori) 岩手(Iwate) 宮城(Miyagi) 山形(Yamagata) 山梨(Yamanashi) 長野(Nagano) 三重(Mie) 愛媛(Ehime) !!! and 沖縄(Okinawa)

[jaichind]

On reason for the apparent victory for LDP-KP-ORA



Is Constitution revision issue was mostly a wash versus something that would hurt LDP.  NHK exit poll shows support/oppose for Constitutional revision to be 33/32.

[jaichind]

PR section exit poll



LDP     39
KP       11
ORA     10
DP       23
JCP      10
SDP       2
PLP        1
PJK        1
NPR       1

18-19 year olds lean LDP more with 42 vote for LDP versus 39 overall.   I guess on this we can call LDP-KP to be around 50% although I suspect it will be more like 48% once we take into account that JCP tends to overperform exit polls and LDP underperform.

[jaichind]

If LDP-KP PR is around 50% then I feel NHK's exit poll of 23-9 for single district seats would be too optimistic for opposition bloc.

[jaichind]

For 福島(Fukushima) with 13% in it is DP 48.9% LDP 48.8%
For 宮城(Miyagi) with 9% in it is DP 49.4% LDP 48.6%
For 三重(Mie) with 6% in it is LDP 49.2% DP 46.7%

[jaichind]

For 北海道(Hokkaido) with 5% in it is

LDP       24.8%
LDP       23.7%
DP         21.8%
DP         20.8%
JCP          7.0%
LDP rebel 0.6%

LDP will win 2-1 contrary to my projection.  My projection was based on 1) LDP vote not evenly distributed and 2) LDP rebel taking 4%-5% of the vote.

Looks like neither is true.

[jaichind]

NHK calls 滋賀(Shiga) for LDP.  I had this down as LDP victory but felt it will be close.  It looks like it is not.

[jaichind]

For 長野(Nagano) 5% in DP 51% LDP 47.4%
For 宮城(Miyagi) with 11% in it is DP 49.6% LDP 48.3%
For 福島(Fukushima) with 23% in it is DP 49.6% LDP 48.1% -> if true then contradicts NHK exit poll
For 三重(Mie) with 8% in it is LDP 51.2% DP 45.2%  -> looks bad for DP leader Okada
For 大分(Ōita) with 8% in it is LDP 50.0% DP 45.6%

[jaichind]

Asahi calls 長野(Nagano) for DP

[jaichind]

For 山梨(Yamanashi) with 5% in it is LDP 40.3% DP 35.6% DP rebel 21.4%
For 青森(Aomori) with 5% in it is LDP 50.3% DP 46.9%
For 三重(Mie) with 11% in it is LDP 51.0% DP 45.7%

[jaichind]

For 福島(Fukushima) with 42% in it is LDP 50.3% LDP 47.5 -> LDP pulls ahead.

[jaichind]

NHK called 三重(Mie) for DP in a relief for DP leader Okada.  LDP is actually ahead in the count 51 to 45.7 but NHK must know what it is doing.

[jaichind]

For 山梨(Yamanashi) with 19% in it is LDP 38.3% DP 36.9% DP rebel 22.1% -> DP rebel is taking some LDP votes like I expected.  
For 福島(Fukushima) with 49% in it is LDP 49.8% LDP 47.9%
For 新潟(Niigata) with 5% in it is LDP 49.7% Ind (PLP) 49.0%
For 大分(Ōita) with 13% in it is LDP 51.3% DP 44.3% -> LDP should get this.

[jaichind]

For 山梨(Yamanashi) with 46% in it is DP 41.8% LDP 39.5% DP rebel 16.8% -> DP takes the lead
For 青森(Aomori) with 17% in it is LDP 52.0% DP 45.5% -> TPP effect not there
For 福島(Fukushima) with 52% in it is LDP 49.8% LDP 48.0%
For 新潟(Niigata) with 25% in it is LDP 49.1% Ind (PLP) 48.3%

[jaichind]

Ultra early PR results

LDP      44.2%
DP        26.1%
KP        10.9%
JCP         9.2%
ORA        3.4%
SDP        2.1%

This will change a lot.