Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

毎日新聞(Mainichi) Tokyo poll.

Abe cabinet approval 42/37.  Right before 2013 Upper House elections it was 51/28
Constitutional change support 32/51.   Right before 2013 Upper House elections it was 40/42

 

[jaichind]

RealpoliticsJapan has a chart to summarize each media projection of the 32 1- seat districts



Which is

毎日新聞(Mainichi)  LDP 26 Tossup 3 Opposition 3
読売新聞(Yomiuri) LDP 16 Tossup 13 Opposition 3
日経新聞(Nikkei)  LDP 16 Tossup 14 Opposition 2
朝日 (Asahi) LDP 20 Tossup 3 Opposition 8 (something is missing this is 31 and not 32)
産経新聞 (Sankei) LDP 22 Tossup 2 Opposition 8
共同通信社 (Kyodo) LDP 22 Opposition 10

Asahi and Kyodo are more anti-LDP whereas Yomiuri, Nikkei and Sankei are more pro-LDP.

Opposition stated goal is to win at least 10 out of the 32 seats.  It seems they might be on the verge of doing so or will be close.  My current projection has them winning 11 out of 32 which is slightly more optimistic than the most pro-opposition projection.   

[jaichind]

There is some growing concern that DP will get hurt on the PR vote due to the party name change.  On the PR vote, the voter WRITES the name of the party or the name of a candidate from the party list.  Commonly known abbreviations are ok.  So for example LDP is officially called 自由民主党.  But 自民 (Liberal Democrat) or even 自(Liberal) would be acceptable for a vote for LDP on the PR slate since people refer to them as  自民 (Liberal Democrat)  or 自(Liberal) all the time.  Back when DP was DPJ the official name was 民主党, a vote for 民主(Democratic) or 民(Democrat) would be acceptable as a vote for DPJ.  Now that DPJ is now DP or 民進党, a vote for 民進(Democrat Progressive) or 民 (Democrat) would be ok but now 民主(Democratic) would not.  The reason is LDP in theory has 民主(Democratic) in its name and now  民主(Democratic)  is not in DP's name of 民進党.  So  traditional DPJ voters who are used to writing   民主(Democratic) on their ballot might not get counted under DP.  DP is making the argument that mass media still refers to DP often as 民主(Democratic)  so a vote for 民主(Democratic)  should be a vote for DP.  Each prefecture will make its own call how to handle this but this issue is causing concentration at DP headquarters.  I guess that is the cost of changing party names.

[jaichind]

Yahoo came out with an astounding projection.

At an high level it has
 

                   PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                 PR vote share
LDP            16                 31.0%                41                     57
KP                8                 15.5%                  3                     11
ORA             6                 11.5%                  4                     10
DP             11                 21.5%                13                      24
JCP              7                 13.5%                  9                     16
Pro-DP Ind.                                                 3                       3

Total Seats


District seats


PR seats


It seems to have a KP PR vote share holding up but massive KP -> JCP tactical voting in various multi member districts leading JCP to win 9!!! district seats.  It has DP PR vote share holding up but massive defection of the DP vote in single member districts to LDP leading the LDP to sweep the single member districts 27-5 over the opposition alliance with LDP actually winning 沖縄(Okinawa).   The ORA  vote which is very high also voted heavily for LDP in single member districts.  It seems SDP and PLP vote completely fell apart and went wholesale to DP or JCP.  PJK and NPR got a good bloc of votes but not enough to get a seat but their votes went to either LDP or ORA helping ORA to capture a seat in 東京   (Tokyo) and 神奈川(Kanagawa) where the DP vote was split between two DP candidates.

LDP-KP vote share is 46.5% which is low when compared to other media projections but this projection sees a lot of potential LDP votes going to ORA on the PR section.  Net net this projection seems a major polarization with LDP and ORA on one side and JCP on the other with KP defecting to JCP in some places and DP defecting to LDP in other places.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

On the PR vote, the voter WRITES the name of the party or the name of a candidate from the party list.

Good God, that's almost as asinine as Australian Senate ballots.

[Zanas]

It seems to have a KP PR vote share holding up but massive KP -> JCP tactical voting in various multi member districts leading JCP to win 9!!! district seats. 

What would be the profile of a KP -> JCP swing tactical voter ? O_o

[jaichind]

On the PR vote, the voter WRITES the name of the party or the name of a candidate from the party list.

Good God, that's almost as asinine as Australian Senate ballots.

Both systems are similar.  Japan is a bit harder since unlike Australia the names of the PR party list candidates do not appear on the ballot.   You have to remember his/her name and write it down.  This leads to fractional results.  Say there are two candidates with last names of Tanaka in the running.  A voter who writes down Tanaka without the first name will still have that vote counted but it gets prorated between the two Tanakas in ration of the valid votes they received.  So if Tanaka A and Tanaka B got vote shares of 4 to 1 then that vote counts Tanaka A 0.8 votes and Tanaka B 0.2 votes.  The ballot paper does list the names of the parties but a voter has the option of writing down the party he or she want to vote for in addition to the name of the candidate leading to the problem I point out above.

[jaichind]

It seems to have a KP PR vote share holding up but massive KP -> JCP tactical voting in various multi member districts leading JCP to win 9!!! district seats. 

What would be the profile of a KP -> JCP swing tactical voter ? O_o

It turns out such a situation is quite possible in theory.  The typical JCP and KP voter and working class and lower middle class in terms of class profile.  The KP vote base is actually fairly pacifist and could be turned off by Abe's subtle attempts to move toward the hawkish Right.  It is said that during the anti-Abe protest of Summer 2015 over the new security legislation there were KP supporters involved without KP party support.   The KP leadership wants power and social respectively which justifies the LDP alliance. 

Just a few days ago, a JCP MP had to step down due to comments he made that the Japanese military budget is a "budget to kill people."  ORA also just announced backing of LDP candidate in Okinawa to try to capture the hawk vote from LDP.  In Yahoo scenario this leads to Dove/Hawk polarization where the ultra-dove KP voter votes for KP on the PR slate but then votes for ultra dovish JCP in the district vote.   LDP voter who are angry over this also vote ORA in the PR vote even as they vote LDP in the district vote. Hawkish DP votes still vote DP in the PR vote but defect to LDP in the district vote.  PLP SDP and VPA voters vote JCP in the PR section or tactically for DP.

[jaichind]

Japan election website go2senkyo.com was able to collate and show detailed versions of the updated media proejctions of 4 of the 6 media houses that came out with projections on a seat by seat basis.  They are  朝日(Asahi) 毎日(Mainichi) 日経(Nikkei) and 読売(Yomiuri).





There seems to be a bug in this chart for 朝日(Asahi) where in 岩手(Iwate) they labeled it DP when it should be pro-PLP independent.  

We also have from before 共同(Kyodo)

 
With this I can construct projection charts for all of them to compare

For 朝日(Asahi)  (I am going to fix the bug in the chart) it would be

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 23-9

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                19                 37.5%                38                     57
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     1                       1
KP                    7                 14.0%                  6                     13
ORA                 4                    8.0%                  4                       8
DP                 11                  21.5%                17                     28
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  6                  12.0%                 3                       9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)


For 毎日(Mainichi)   it would be

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 27-5

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                19                 37.5%                43                     62
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  6                     13
ORA                 4                    8.0%                  3                       7
DP                 11                  21.5%                15                     26
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  6                  12.0%                 3                       9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     3                       3    (1 DP, 1 PLP, 1 AO)



For  日経(Nikkei)   it would be

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 23-9

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 35.0%                38                     56
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    8                 15.5%                  7                     15
ORA                 3                    6.0%                  3                       6
DP                 12                  23.5%                20                     32
SDP                 0                   1.5%                   0                       0
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  7                  13.5%                 1                       8
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)


For 読売(Yomiuri)   it would be

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 22-10

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                16                 31.5%                37                     53
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 5                  10.0%                  3                       8
DP                 12                  23.5%                19                     31
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  7                  14.0%                 3                     10
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)


For  共同(Kyodo)  it would be

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 22-10

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                21                 41.5%                38                     59
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     1                       1
KP                    7                 14.0%                  6                     13
ORA                 3                    6.0%                  2                       5
DP                 10                  19.5%                18                     28
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  6                  12.0%                 3                       9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     5                       5    (2 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)


My projection which I will post soon is very similar to the 読売(Yomiuri) projection which in turn is the most negative on LDP.   The  毎日(Mainichi) projection is the most pro-LDP.  It is interesting that the two most pro-LDP media outfits  読売(Yomiuri) and 日経(Nikkei)  came out with the most pro-DP projections.  We also have the 共同(Kyodo) with the most extreme PR vote share projection for LDP-KP yet at the same time having pretty conservative district seat share projections for LDP-KP given that large vote share.

[jaichind]

If we take the average of the 4 media projections it comes out to LDP-KP 71, DP-PLP-SDP-Independents 33, ORA 7, and JCP 10.

If we do a comparison of Japan Upper House elections since 2001 it would be interesting.  First we should use the Japanese term 第三極  or Third Pole which refers to various non-LDP center right forces (they might be LDP rebels, hawks, populists, libertarians) that often take votes away from the main center-left anti-LDP opposition bloc.   In this election the Third Pole parties are ORA, NPR, and PJK although only ORA is relevant.   A chart of Upper House election results which lumps pro-LDP independents as part of LDP has and Center-Left bloc include parties like DPJ PLP SDP DP etc etc.

                LDP+              Third Pole            Center-Left          JCP
2001          80                       6                       30                    5
2004          60                                                57                    4
2007          46                       3                       69                    3
2010          60                     12                       46                    3
2013          76                     17                       20                    8
2016          71                       7                       34                    9

In 2001 Third Pole was Ozawa's LP which back then was an anti-LDP conservative party which split the anti-LDP vote and gave the LDP+ a massive landslide.  For 2004 LP merged into DPJ which evened the odds.  In 2007 Third Pole are LDP populist splinters NPN and PNP which worked with DPJ to trounce LDP+.  In 2010 Third Pole are LDP libertarian and hawk splinter YP SPJ and NPR which took some LDP votes but also took a bunch of anti-LDP votes.  2013 Third pole are YP and JRP which took enough anti-LDP vote to lead to a collapse of the Center-Left Bloc.  2016 on these projections would be the continued recovery of the Center-Left bloc as well as the rise of JCP as the Third Pole declines.

[jaichind]

三重(Mie) poll



It has

Abe Approval 39/37
District seat   DP 39 LDP 36
PR vote LDP 33 DP 29 KP 11 JCP 7

This the first poll I have seen that actually has KP PR vote above 10% anywhere.  Of course KP will get 13%-15% they never poll at this level.

My current model has DP winning this seat DP 51 LDP 48.5 so this poll fits with that narrative. 

[jaichind]

時事通信(Jiji) projection  



which if you read their article you can construct

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 23-9

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                17                 33.5%                38                     55
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 4                    8.0%                  3                       7
DP                 13                  25.5%                19                     32
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  6                  12.0%                 2                       8
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection has a last minute surge for DP from LDP and JCP on the PR section even as the district results are not affected.  LDP-KP PR vote share at 47.5% which is low by media projection standards.

[jaichind]

Latest 朝日 (Asahi) poll

Abe approval 41/36 from 45/36 last poll
Want LDP-KP to continue their majority 44/35
Want LDP-KP-ORA-PJK to gain 2/3 majority for Constitutional change 36/41

PR vote

LDP   35  (-3)
KP       7  (--)
ORA     7 (+3)
DP     16 (+1)
JCP      6  (--)

Given historical house effects of Asahi poll this seems to imply a LDP-KP PR vote share of around 45%-47% range.

[jaichind]

Latest JNN poll



PR vote

LDP     32 (-4)
KP        6  (+2)
ORA      4 (+2)
DP      11 (---)
PLP       1 (+1)
SDP      1 (---)
JCP       7 (+1)

Similar to other recent polls.  LDP-KP on the decline to the benefit of ORA.

[jaichind]

Gendai or Modern magazine which published a secret DP report a few weeks ago now claims they got their hands on the internal LDP polls in critical battleground prefectures.  The results seems to match various media polls makes me suspicious this is just a made up report and there is no top secret LDP internal poll.



Reading the report on gets.

1) In 北海道(Hokkaido), just like media polls, LDP has greater vote share but due to maldistribution of the LDP vote, DP is likely to win 2 seats to 1 LDP.  There is the additional factor of the LDP rebel and possible JCP tactical voting.  
2) In 青森(Aomori) and 山梨(Yamanashi) it is neck-to-neck between LDP and the opposition candidate.  For Aomori it must be related to the impact of TPP.
3) In Northern prefectures 岩手(Iwate), 宮城(Miyagi), 山形(Yamagata), and 福島(Fukushima) the LDP is being blown away.  If true the affect of TPP must be strong.  
4) In 千葉(Chiba) where LDP should be in a good position to win 2 out of 3 seats has LDP winning 1 and a 4 way tie between the 2 DP, second LDP, and the JCP candidate for the last 2 seats.  Danger for LDP to not winning the second seat.
5) In 東京(Tokyo) LDP's second candidate has lost ground to the ORA candidate and it is ORA vs DP for the sixth and last seat.  Main problem for DP here is that the other DP candidate Renho, is pulling in a lot of DP votes.  So even though ORA grew at the expense of LDP it is DP that is in danger of losing its second seat.  It also shows that SDP and NPR candidates pulling in some support but the other minor party candidates like PJK, VPA, NW, and other center-left independents  does not seem to be having much impact.
6) In 神奈川(Kanagawa) the LDP will win 1 of 4 seats.  It is a 4 way tie between KP DP JCP and LDP backed independent for the remaining 3 seats.  ORA and the second DP are out of the running.  DP will need tactical voting to keep out the LDP backed independent.  The ORA seems to be having no real impact.
7) In 新潟(Niigata), 長野(Nagano), and 三重(Mie) the LDP is well behind and will most likely lose.  If true then DP-JCP cooperation which was in suspect in Nagano and Mie must be working there.
8 ) In 滋賀(Shiga), LDP is well ahead.  This is confusing.  If the LDP is being beating badly in other battleground prefectures, then LDP should be at best neck-to-neck in Shiga.  My model has Shiga as a win for the opposition.   The DP incumbent is actually married to a LDP MP.
9) In 愛知(Aichi) DP in danger of losing the 4th and final seat to JCP.  Here it seems ORA is not having much of an impact.
10) In 大阪(Osaka), JCP is behind but within striking distance the second ORA candidate for the 4th seat.  DP tactical voting for JCP will be needed for JCP to beat the second ORA candidate.
11) In 兵庫(Hyōgo), DP behind but within striking distance to KP and ORA to capture the third and final seat.  JCP tactical voting for DP will be necessary for DP to win.
12) In 愛媛(Ehime) where some media outlets suggested that the opposition could win over LDP in this LDP stronghold it seems that LDP as re-taken the upper hand.
13) In 大分(Ōita) LDP has the upper hand but DP within striking distance.  
14) In 沖縄(Okinawa) it is a blowout landslide for opposition over LDP which is not a surprise except perhaps the margin.  

Overall these results seems merely just match what the media polls imply.  I wonder why they do not have 埼玉(Saitama) where there is recent talk that JCP might overtake KP and capture the third and final seat.  Same for 秋田(Akita) where it they are going to claim these massive defeat for LDP in the North then it makes sense to poll Akita where LDP then would have a solid chance of losing as well.

[jaichind]

Final NHK poll

Abe Approval 46/37


4 party opposition approval 42/49 which is a swing of -2 from last week


Abenomics 44/48


Party support
LDP                 35.5
KP                     5.9
PJK                    0.2
ORA                   2.1
DP                     8.8
PLP                   0.2
SDP                  0.7
JCP                   4.3


On these numbers the projected vote share for LDP-KP which is the last NHK support for LDP-KP plus 2%-3% yields 43.5%-44.5%.  Main risk of this projection is that unaligned seems very high in this poll.  DP would need a higher turnout (around 55% or higher) to hold LDP-KP to these levels.

Certain to vote on election day is 55% plus another 9% that claimed to have voted early (the real number is around 6.5%) which if true is bad news for LDP-KP and JCP.

[jaichind]

Early voting has reached 6.5 million votes, 43% increase from 2013 for the same period.  This mainly because they expanded the number of voting stations that will take early votes.  Still, overall good news for opposition.  If turnout stays at around 50%-52% then LDP-KP and to some extent JCP will benefit.  DP and to some extent ORA benefit from higher turnout.

[jaichind]

It seems that if Abe is determined to push through Constitutional change after the 2016 Upper House election he should be in position to do so as long as he is willing to pay political capital for it and LDP-KP does not experience a disastrous result 7/10.

The Composition of the Upper House which are not for re-election are

90 for Constitutional change    
 65 LDP
 11 KP
   5 ORA
   3 PJK
   1 AEJ
   1 NPR
   3 ex-YP
   1 ex-PFG

31 against Constitutional change    
 18 DP
   1 SDP
   8 JCP
   1 PLP
   1 AEJ
   1 ex-YP
   1 OSMP

This comes from the following migration pattern of those elected in 2013
 65 LDP -> 65 LDP
 11 KP -> 11 KP
 17 DPJ -> 17 DP
  8 JCP -> 8 JCP
  8 JRP -> 5 JIP->ORA, 2 PFG->PJK, 1 PFG->anti Constitutional change AEJ
  8 YP -> 3 pro Constitutional change ex-YP, 1 pro Constitutional change AEJ, 1 PFG->PJK,
              1 UP->JIP->DP, 1 PFG->ex-PFG, 1 anti Constitutional change ex-YP
  1 OSMP -> 1 OSMP
  1 SDP -> 1 SDP
  1 Far Left Independent -> 1 PLP
  1 PLP rebel -> 1 NPR
 
So this upcoming election the pro-Constitutional change bloc (LDP, KP, ORA, PJK) has to win 72 to get 2/3 majority.  The medium projection for LDP-KP right now is around 71-72 while the medium projection for ORA is around 6-7.  Even my pessimistic projection for LDP-KP has them winning 66 and ORA winning 7 which puts them one above 162.  So as long as Abe can pay off KP to go along with Constitutional change  and manage the volatile ORA and the various center-right independents on paper he can get Constitutional change passed.  

If we just limit ourselves to just the 4 parties for Constitutional change (LDP, KP, ORA PJK) then they currently hold 84 seats in the part of the Upper House that is not up for re-election.  For this same bloc to get to 162 they have to get 78 seats this upcoming election.   The medium projections for LDP-KP and ORA shows they are very close and would either barely make it or barely miss it.

The referendum is another story.  My sense is that unless Abe wins an unexpected large victory he will not have the political capital to pay off so many actors.

[jaichind]

TV Asahi (ANN) poll

Abe Cabinet Approval 42.2/38.9

PR vote (change from a month ago)


 
LDP          31.4  (-1.2 )
KP             5.5   (-0.9)
ORA           2.9  (+0.9)
PJK            0.1  (+0.1)
NPR           0.1  (-----)
DP           14.6  (+1.2)
PLP           0.4  (-----)
SDP          1.0  (-0.1)
JCP           7.5  (+1.1)

LDP-KP losing ground to DP, ORA and JCP.  Using TV Asahi 2014 polls as calibration this poll implies a LDP-KP PR vote share of around 44.0%  Again the main risk is that the level of unaligned seems fairly large and is not polarized as one would expect at the end of an election campaign.

[jaichind]

July 10th would also see an election for governor of 鹿児島(Kagoshima).  Back in 2012, as is standard practice, LDP, KP, and DPJ backed the pro-LDP incumbent against the JCP backed candidate with the incumbent winning 66-34.  This time DP-PLP-SDP-JCP will back a common opposition candidate running on the anti-nuclear power platform against the LDP-KP backed incumbent.   The incumbent should win but with a reduced margin. 

[jaichind]

産経 (Sankei) (FNN) projection.  It does not break it out into PR and non PR seats



LDP           59
KP             12
ORA            7
DP            28
SDP            1
PLP             0
JCP           10
Ind.            4

Trying to read the FNN article one can sort of construct the entire projection

which if you read their article you can construct

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 24-8

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                19                 37.5%                40                     59
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  5                     12
ORA                 5                  10.0%                  2                      7
DP                 10                  19.5%                18                    28
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  6                  12.0%                 4                     10
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

Here KP PR vote is keeping up but losing ground district areas  but LDP is making it up with a strong performance in the single member districts.

[jaichind]

With a week to go it is time for a projection update from me.    Abe's ratings has gone down recently with the center-left opposition as well as ORA gaining from this.  I give LDP-KP 44% in terms of PR vote and 67 seats overall.  For multi-member districts I put the result in vote share rank and will show runner up in brackets.  

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP DP DP  (LDP)
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP backed independent          
宮城   Miyagi               1            DP      
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             DP backed independent                          
福島   Fukushima       1             DP                            
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DP (JCP)                          
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP DP KP (JCP)                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DP (DP)                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP KP DP JCP  (LDP backed independent)            
山梨   Yamanashi       1             DP          
東京   Tokyo              6             DP LDP JCP KP LDP DP (ORA)    
新潟   Niigata             1             PLP backed independent                    
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DP  (JCP)                          
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP DP KP DP (JCP)                
三重   Mie                   1             DP                              
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP      
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP DP (JCP)    
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP ORA JCP (ORA)            
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP ORA KP (DP)
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DP (ORA)
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP DP KP (JCP)                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1             DP          
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1             AO backed independent    

This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 22-10

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                16                 30.50%               37                     53
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 13.50%                7                     14
ORA                 5                   9.75%                 2                      7
PJK                  0                   1.00%                 0                      0
NRP                 0                   0.50%                 0                      0
NPB                 0                   1.00%                 0                      0
HRP                 0                    0.50%                0                      0
DP                 12                  24.00%               20                    32
SDP                 1                    2.50%                0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.50%                0                       0
VPA                 0                     1.25%               0                       0
JCP                  7                  14.00%               3                      10
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 158, 4 less than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 164, 2 more than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.

As for the CW projections I took the medium projection of media outfits, Japanese political discussion boards, and various political analysts.  

The main difference with my projection are

1) In 北海道(Hokkaido) the CW projection has LDP winning 2 seats out of 3 seats  Here the issue is how LDP will divide it votes among its 2 candidates relative to DP.  I also had LDP winning 2 out of 3 but ground reports I read say that DP will do a better job and win 2 seats despite a lower vote share.
2) In 山梨(Yamanashi) the CW projection has LDP winning because of the effect of the DP rebel in the race.  My projection says that DP will still win.
3) In 大阪(Osaka) the CW projection has ORA winning the last of 4 seats over my prediction of JCP.  I view JCP victory as the result of DP tactical voting for JCP.
4) In 大分(Ōita) the CW projection has LDP winning versus my projection of DP.  

In all these 5 differences other than Shiga all had significant minority of projections going my way.

Of course in terms of PR vote the CW projection has LDP-KP at 49.75% versus my 44%.  Part of it is I have ORA at 9.75% while the CW projection has ORA at 7.5%.  My model has ORA keeping its original pro-Hashimoto JRP center-right bloc intact while CW has some of them defecting over to LDP.

The medium CW projection:

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 24-8

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 35.75%               40                     58
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.00%                7                     14
ORA                 4                   7.50%                 3                      7
PJK                  0                   1.25%                 0                      0
NRP                 0                   0.50%                 0                      0
NPB                 0                   1.25%                 0                      0
HRP                 0                    0.50%                0                      0
DP                 11                  22.00%               17                    28
SDP                 1                    2.00%                0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.25%                0                       0
VPA                 0                     1.00%               0                       0
JCP                  7                  13.00%               2                        9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                        4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

There some prefectures where it is pretty close for CW to flip even though for now CW matches that of my projections.

1) In 青森(Aomori) both my and CW projections has it for LDP, but most media projections has DP winning it due to TPP.  Many as well myself are not buying it given prefecture partisan fundamentals. My model has DP coming pretty close but LDP will win.
2) In 愛知(Aichi) both my and CW projections has it for DP for the fourth and last seat.  But a large minority of CW projections has JCP winning the last seat.  I and many others do not buy it based on basic prefectural partisan fundamentals as well as DP's ability for tactical voting.   On the flip side there might be LDP to JCP tactical voting to bloc DP.  DPJ was strong in Aichi and it has provoked de facto LDP-JCP tactical alliances in the past.  It does seem that everyone agrees that the ORA-TCJ candidate is not doing well.
3) In 神奈川(Kanagawa) CW and my projections has it as LDP KP DP JCP with the LDP backed incumbent coming in 5th.  But looking at the various projections they are all over the place with a even 5 way race for the last three positions between 2 DP candidates, KP, JCP and the LDP backed independent.   This one will be wild.
4) In 埼玉(Saitama) a significant minority of the CW projections has JCP winning the third seat over KP.  KP has a large base here and traditionally wins around 19%-20% in the district seat.  JCP will need a large swing plus DP tactical voting to get over 19%.  Most likely will not take place.
5) In 兵庫(Hyōgo) a significant minority of the CW projections has DP winning the third seat over KP on the basis of JCP tactical voting.  KP does not have a base here so this is more likely than Saitama.  My projection has it very close but still gives it to KP.
6) In 東京(Tokyo) a significant minority of the CW projections has ORA winning the sixth seat over the second DP candidate.  Vote distribution issues of LDP and DP plus smaller parties all running a candidate here (PJK NRP NW SDP VPA and a PLP-backed independent) complicates the distribution of votes.  
7) In 滋賀(Shiga) I have it as neck-to-neck but with LDP with a slight edge and a significant minority of the CW projections also have it for DP.  This could go either way.
8 ) In various battleground 1- seat prefectures where the CW projection and myself have the opposition winning there are significant number of projections that has LDP winning.  They are 宮城(Miyagi), 新潟(Niigata), 長野(Nagano) and 三重(Mie).  In various other Northern battleground prefectures most CW projections agree that the opposition has them locked up.  They are 岩手(Iwate), 山形(Yamagata), and 福島(Fukushima).  Of course almost everyone agrees that opposition will take 沖縄(Okinawa).

[jaichind]

History of turnout in Japanese elections since 1989



Black line is Lower House elections and Red line is Upper House elections.   LDP got beat beaten badly in 1989 1998 and 2007 and was held to a marginal victory in 2004 and 2010.  All of them had high turnout and election with large LDP victories (1992 and 2013) had low turnout.  Exception was the LDP landslide of 2001 under Koizumi.

[jaichind]

Latest サンデー毎日 (Mainichi Weekly magazine) projection

Which is a much more pro-LDP projection, especially at the 1- seat district level.  They had LDP-KP at 68 seats back in early June.  Now they expect LDP-KP at 74.



1 seat districts LDP-opposition 26-6

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 35.5%                42                     60
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 4                   8.0%                  4                       8
DP                 11                  21.5%                15                    26
SDP                 1                    2.0%                 0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  7                  14.0%                 2                       9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     3                       3    (1 DP, 1 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 168, 6 more than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 174.

Seat-by-seat projections are:

[jaichind]

日経(Nikkei) Final projection



1 seat districts LDP-opposition 23-9 (no change from its projection from a couple of weeks ago)
LDP-KP went from 71 to 70 while ORA went up to 6.  So no net change for pro-Constitutional change bloc.   It does seem everyone is converging toward LDP 18 KP 7 ORA 4 DP 11 SDP 1 JCP 7 for the PR vote.

                       PR           My estimated          District              Total
                                     PR vote share
LDP                18                 35.5%                38                     56
Pro-LDP Ind                                                     0                       0
KP                    7                 14.0%                  7                     14
ORA                 4                    8.0%                  3                       7
DP                 11                  21.5%                19                     30
SDP                 1                   2.0%                   0                       1
PLP                  0                    1.0%                 0                       0
JCP                  7                  14.0%                 2                       9
Pro-DP Ind.                                                     4                       4    (1 DP, 2 PLP, 1 AO)

This projection means LDP+KP+ORA+PJK would be at 161, 1 less than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.  Add 6 for the pro-Constitutional change independents they will have 167, 5 more than necessary to get to 2/3 majority.