WBUR/MassINC poll of NH Independents: Sanders and Trump lead

[Mr. Morden]

WBUR/MassINC Polling Group poll of New Hampshire, conducted Jan. 16-19:

http://s3.amazonaws.com/media.wbur.org/wordpress/1/files/2016/01/Topline-WBUR-NH-Primary-6-Independents.pdf

This poll is unique in that, because they find a large bloc of voters who haven’t firmly committed to which party’s primary they’re going to vote in, they consider a wide range of possible turnout models, depending on whether the Independent turnout is heavy or light in each party.

Here’s the scenario of how things would turn out if everyone voted in the primary that they’re currently leaning towards:

Dems

Sanders 60%
Clinton 33%
O’Malley 3%

GOP

Trump 26%
Kasich 15%
Cruz 15%
Bush 10%
Rubio 7%
Paul 5%
Carson 5%
Fiorina 4%
Christie 4%
Huckabee 1%
Gilmore, Santorum 0%

lightest possible Independent turnout in the Dem. primary:

Sanders 59%
Clinton 33%
O’Malley 4%

heaviest possible Independent turnout in the Dem. primary:

Sanders 59%
Clinton 28%
O’Malley 5%

On the GOP side, Trump leads in all scenarios, with either Cruz or Kasich second.  The size of Trump’s lead heavily depends on Independent turnout, since the Indies love Kasich.

lightest possible Independent turnout in the GOP primary:

Trump 29%
Cruz 16%
Kasich 14%
Bush 8%
Rubio 6%
Paul 6%
Carson 4%
Fiorina 4%
Christie 4%
Huckabee 1%
Gilmore, Santorum 0%

heaviest possible Independent turnout in the GOP primary:

Trump 20%
Kasich 19%
Bush 13%
Cruz 12%
Rubio 7%
Paul 7%
Carson 4%
Fiorina 4%
Christie 4%
Huckabee 1%
Gilmore, Santorum 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Favorability of the candidates among Independents:



Here's how they currently break down in terms of which party's primary they're leaning towards voting in:

[Phony Moderate]

How will the Sandernistas react when Clinton wins in NH?

Their attention, along with everyone else, will turn to other battleground states like Ohio and Virginia where the exit polls show Clinton neck and neck with TRUMP.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

2nd poll to have Sanders at 60% HE GONNA WIN NH BIG

[Mr. Morden]

Crosstabs:

http://s3.amazonaws.com/media.wbur.org/wordpress/1/files/2016/01/Crosstabs-2016-01-WBUR-NH-6-Independents.pdf

As usual, the education gap is massive.

High school or less:
Trump 38%
Cruz 23%
Kasich 11%
Bush 6%
Rubio 3%

Advanced degree:
Rubio 18%
Cruz 17%
Kasich 16%
Bush 10%
Trump 8%

By region…
Hillsborough: Trump +6 over Kasich
Rockingham: Trump +12 over Cruz
Central/South: Trump +10 over Cruz
West/North: Trump +10 over Kasich

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Sanders Country!! He is strong in New England!

[Eraserhead]

How will the Sandernistas react when Clinton wins in NH?

How would you react if the Clinton campaign pulls out of NH before primary day?

[This account no longer in use.]

So both Bernie and wacky-wavy-inflatable-arm-flailing-tube-man confirmed to have momentum?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So both Bernie and wacky-wavy-inflatable-arm-flailing-tube-man confirmed to have momentum?

Kasich may be the establishments only hope to defeat Trump in NH

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What's the difference between this one and the other one?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

What's the difference between this one and the other one?

Dem side? It's literally the same numbers

[Eraserhead]

What's the difference between this one and the other one?

They're two different polls that apparently found the exact same result on the Democratic side (Sanders +27).

[Boston Bread]

What's the difference between this one and the other one?

O'Malley is doing 50% percent better in this poll.

[/]

How reliable is the pollster?

[Tender Branson]

Morden, this poll is only of Independents.

It's not a real primary poll.

[/]

Morden, this poll is only of Independents.

It's not a real primary poll.

lol

[Eraserhead]

Weird.

[Mr. Morden]

Morden, this poll is only of Independents.

It's not a real primary poll.

Ah, OK, I just read the writeup twice more to see if I understood.  Looks like you're right.  This is Independents only.  I was led astray by the wording in the opening, when it asks which party's primary you are likely to vote in.  Later in the poll, it incorporates that whole sample.  But I guess that sample was only Independent voters to begin with?  That's how I understand it now.  Though it is worded strangely.

EDIT: Actually, on closer inspection, it looks like the poll consists of people who are not formally registered as Dems or Republicans, though some of those people do self-identify as Democrats or Republicans.  They're just not formally registered as such.  10% of the total sample self-identifies as Democrats, while an additional 10% of the sample self-identifies as Republicans.

[Tender Branson]

Morden, this poll is only of Independents.

It's not a real primary poll.

Ah, OK, I just read the writeup twice more to see if I understood.  Looks like you're right.  This is Independents only.  I was led astray by the wording in the opening, when it asks which party's primary you are likely to vote in.  Later in the poll, it incorporates that whole sample.  But I guess that sample was only Independent voters to begin with?  That's how I understand it now.  Though it is worded strangely.

Yes:

[Eraserhead]

Plus, wasn't there supposed to be a normal WBUR poll released today?

[Torie]

So those voters who have some degree of indecision as to which primary they will vote in hate Trump and love Kasich. That is about the only logical and expected outcome I have seen in polling this year it seems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Oh my, Bernie momentum.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, it's interesting at least. Not sure how useful it is.

[Zanas]

For a poll of only Independents, it seems awfully similar to a poll of all likely voters, especially on the GOP side.

[Classic Conservative]

Well, it's interesting at least. Not sure how useful it is.