Warner vs. Allen

[Frodo]

Here is the scenario:

Virginia Gov. Mark Warner is nominated as the 2008 presidential candidate by the Democratic Party, and he picks Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln as his vice-presidential nominee.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party chooses Virginia Sen. George Allen as their presidential nominee, and he in turn picks South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford as his running mate.

They are both southern tickets, with Democrats as the populist-leaning moderates, and Republicans as libertarian-leaning conservatives. 

Who will win? By how much?  And what would the map look like? 

[CARLHAYDEN]

The key here is the 'other' candidatea.

If a third party lefty candidate can pull 2% or more nationally, Allen will win.

If the Republicans fail to handle illegal immigration, there may be a Perot type candidate, and the Democrats would win.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Warner wins. Allen wins VA though.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

[Democratic Hawk]

If a third party lefty candidate can pull 2% or more nationally, Allen will win.

That's my worry should the Demcrats select a moderate like Warner. Hopefully, left-liberals won't cut their nose off to spite their face

Dave

[AuH2O]

That race would definitely bring about 3rd party interest.

Allen is more likeable than Warner and would win, because  if Warner ran left in the primary, which he will have to, he will be another flip flopper, whereas Allen doesn't have that problem.

[Moooooo]

It would be close race... Thats for sure.

Warner/Lincoln would win by making solid gains in the midwest.  Also, Warner has taken a pretty strong stance on illegal immigration, which may help him make in-roads to border states such as Arizona, New Mexico, Louisiana, and Florida.  Plus, Warner does'nt have that deadly voting record that comes with any Senator.

I vote Warner/Warner.

[MissCatholic]

It would be incredibly close. So my map isnt totally what i think. I do suspect though that the public will find it very difficult to tell who is a democrat, who is a republican. So alot of states will need to be won with around 48% or above. But here it is.

[MODU]

The VP selection is going to be key.  With the two you've selected, it will be a close race.  Put on a more popular/successful VP on either ticket, and the race with flip to one or the other.  I highly doubt Allen would choose Sanford and Warner probably wouldn't choose Blanche.  I see Warner with Richardson more, and could use the platform to easily campaign on border reform and progressive initiatives.  Allen would choose someone like Romney to show tollerance and reform while holding most of the conservative core together against a possible third-party candidate.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Warner/Lincoln:  50.0% (+/- 0.5%)
Allen/Sanford:  49.0% (-/+ 0.5%)
Other:  1.0%



Let Republicans say what they may about Arkansas, but I'd say that it's been "misunderestimated" (especially by the Dems.).  Two Dem. Senators (one who unseated an incumbent in 2002), 3-1 Dem. caucus in the House, and a place where reg. Dems. outnumber Reps.  Bush, while he swept the South (OK by 32pts., AL by 25pts., TX by 23pts., etc.), failed to carry Arkansas by more than 10pts.  This state itches to vote Dem., but we've failed to put up a decent candidate in two elections (Gore, of course, represented DC more than TN).

I'd concede Florida before Arkansas.

A few simple questions to my Rep. friends:  Is there any Democrat who could beat Allen?  Frist?  Keyes?
What I believe is that Republicans are more likely to trounce on Warner's prospects before Hillary's b/c they know who the real winners would be in each match-up against an Allen or a Frist...or a Keyes

BTW, Warner's accent (a little twang every now and then) is much more believable than Allen's (he actually sounds more like a Yankee to me)...I'm pointing this out b/c Kilgore seems to want to pull a Mary Beth Cahill (my new synonym for "whine") about accents.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Warner wins. Allen wins VA though.

[WalterMitty]

easy choice.

i choose the normal person over the silly populist.