1948: Dewey vs. not Truman

[President Johnson]

Could Tom Dewey have won against any another Democrat in 1948 (someone who defeats President Truman for the nomination). Did he only lose because Truman was a great campaigner?

[Sir Mohamed]

Depends on who gets the nomination. A southern racist who opposed the president? Unlikely that someone like Dick Russell or Strom Thurmond would have been acceptable for the party’s liberal wing. They would have lost to Dewey in a landslide in the general election. A potential dark horse/compromise candidate in the event of a deadlocked convention could be James Byrnes or Alben Barkley. Those two would likely have lost also, but by smaller margin. So yep, I think that Truman was the only Democrat (if Ike stays out of the race) who could have won that election, because he proved to be a very high-energy and fearless campaigner.

With Alben Barkley as compromise candidate (so, no southern third party run, while Wallace remains in the race):

Governor Thomas E. Dewey (R-NY)/Governor Earl Warren (R-CA): 333 EV. (49.8%)
Senator Alben W. Barkley (D-KY)/Senator Richard B. Russell (D-GA): 198 EV. (44.7%)
Former Vice President Henry A. Wallace (P-IA)/Senator Glenn Taylor (P-ID): 0 EV. (5.2%)

In the unlikely event, that a southern racist capturues the nomination, Dewey sweeps the country. Only the southern states plus WV remain in the Dem column.

Governor Thomas E. Dewey (R-NY)/Governor Earl Warren (R-CA): 396 EV. (52.6%)
Senator Strom Thurmond (D-SC)/Senator Alben Barkley (D-KY): 135 EV. (36.5%)
Former Vice President Henry A. Wallace (P-IA)/Senator Glenn Taylor (P-ID): 0 EV. (10.1%)

[Kingpoleon]

286: Gov. Thomas Dewey(R-NY)/Gov. Earl Warren(R-CA) - 48.8%
245: Gov. Coke Stevenson(D-TX)/Fmr. Gov. Maurice Tobin(D-MA) - 47.3%

[Mr. Smith]

Dewey wins...unless it's Ike or Barkley. Barkley was arguably even higher-energy than Truman

And if Truman switched to slot 2 and still campaigned, Dewey would still be screwed.

[RR]

Dewey would have trounced any other Dem

[President Johnson]

Dewey wins...unless it's Ike or Barkley. Barkley was arguably even higher-energy than Truman

And if Truman switched to slot 2 and still campaigned, Dewey would still be screwed.

I doubt that Barkley would have defeated Dewey.

[Del Tachi]

What about the scenario in which Dwight Eisenhower is successfully courted by the Democrats to be their nominee in 1948?

[Sir Mohamed]

What about the scenario in which Dwight Eisenhower is successfully courted by the Democrats to be their nominee in 1948?

Ike wins a decesively; but he's not acceptable for the south.

General Dwight D. Eisenhower (D-PA)/Senator Alben W. Barkley (D-KY): 429 EV. (53.2%)
Governor Thomas E. Dewey (R-NY)/Governor Earl Warren (R-CA): 64 EV. (43.1%)
Senator Strom Thurmond (SR-SC)/Governor Fielding Wright (SR-MS): 38 EV. (2.5%)

[RogueBeaver]

No way Truman's denied the nomination, but Barkley would beat Dewey because he's acceptable to both wings and a great campaigner.

[Rockefeller GOP]

This idea that Ike had no affiliation and was up for grabs is a truly bizarre revision on history.  Sure, the Dems (who enjoyed the natural electoral advantage at the time) courted him, but he shut them down hard.

He was a Republican through and through.

[Kingpoleon]

This idea that Ike had no affiliation and was up for grabs is a truly bizarre revision on history.  Sure, the Dems (who enjoyed the natural electoral advantage at the time) courted him, but he shut them down hard.

He was a Republican through and through.

At the very least, he'd never run against Dewey. He might run if MacArthur somehow became the GOP nominee.