The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Gass3268]

MSNBC had on Ben Ginsberg (famous Republican consultant lawyer) and he said that the Rule 40 is based off the 2012 convention rules. He said that the number of states that you woul need a majority of the delegates in order to be on the first ballot will be determined by this years rules committee. He said it could be any number they wanted.

[Vosem]

Your grand total for Cruz's delegates is correct, but in the state totals you have him earning just 10 in Mississippi, instead of 15

[Erc]

MSNBC had on Ben Ginsberg (famous Republican consultant lawyer) and he said that the Rule 40 is based off the 2012 convention rules. He said that the number of states that you woul need a majority of the delegates in order to be on the first ballot will be determined by this years rules committee. He said it could be any number they wanted.

The impression I've gotten is that any rules change that would effect the balloting at this years convention would need to be approved by the convention as a whole.  In any other year, that might be a formality, but if it were to make a difference such a vote would be contested.

Your grand total for Cruz's delegates is correct, but in the state totals you have him earning just 10 in Mississippi, instead of 15

Thanks for the catch!

In other news, I had the rules in Hawaii wrong; the 3 RNC members are indeed allocated separately from the other At-Large delegates.  This switches a delegate from Rubio to Trump; Rubio now only won 1 delegate in last night's contests.

[Erc]

Next contest up is the Virgin Islands GOP caucus, tomorrow (March 10); polls close at 5PM EST.

Apparently, some ex-Rand Paul guys are trying to use the Virgin Islands as their personal rotten borough, according to this Washington Examiner article.

[Gass3268]

Do you know how the 3 different components split for the Democrats in MI?

[Erc]

Do you know how the 3 different components split for the Democrats in MI?

At-Large: Sanders 15 - Clinton 13
PLEO At-Large: Sanders 9 - Clinton 8

Michigan has a large number of CDs with an odd number of delegates, which Sanders won the vast majority of, giving him a nice delegate haul despite the close result.  In particular, Sanders got a +1 delegate advantage from all odd-delegate CDs and split all even delegate CDs, except:

CD 1 (UP/northern LP): Sanders won big here, resulting in a 4-2 split.
CD 5 (Bay City/Saginaw/Flint): Clinton won here, giving her a 4-3 split.
CD 13 (Detroit area): Clinton won here, giving her a 5-4 split.
CD 14 (Detroit area): Clinton won big here, giving her a 6-3 split.

Total in the CDs: Sanders 45 - Clinton 40.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Atlas' numbers suggest that the at-large tally should split 14-14, and CD13 6-3. Do you have different ones, or is the formula different than what I assumed?

[Erc]

Atlas' numbers suggest that the at-large tally should split 14-14, and CD13 6-3. Do you have different ones, or is the formula different than what I assumed?

You're absolutely right with the At-Large tally, and I've changed the main page numbers accordingly.

I don't have good numbers for CD 13; I'm relying off of the Green Papers' count, which is quite incomplete.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dave's Atlas has it as 64.76% Hillary vs. 33.90% Bernie. That rounds to 5.91 delegates for her.

[Erc]

Dave's Atlas has it as 64.76% Hillary vs. 33.90% Bernie. That rounds to 5.91 delegates for her.

I'll go with that, then.  I assume the vote total is higher than 46k?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dave's Atlas has it as 64.76% Hillary vs. 33.90% Bernie. That rounds to 5.91 delegates for her.

I'll go with that, then.  I assume the vote total is higher than 46k?

Yup, 108K.

Too bad.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do we know for sure how MS delegates break down, BTW?

[Erc]

Do we know for sure how MS delegates break down, BTW?

CD breakdowns are still tentative.  On the Republican side, it seems that Trump only hit the 50% WTA threshold in 1 CD.  On the Democratic side, Sanders only fell below the 15% viability threshold in 2 CDs.

This could potentially change as better CD breakdowns come in.  The main uncertainties are in CDs 2 and 3, which split Hinds and Madison counties between them.

On the GOP side in CD 3, where Trump is at 49.1% of the vote with 84% of precincts reporting.  Trump underperformed in Hinds and Madison relative to his statewide average, so I'm pretty confident in my call there.  In CD 2, Trump is at 54% of the vote with 76% reporting.  Here, it's going to come down to the precincts, but I am going to switch my call here and project that Trump comes down to below a majority here and loses a delegate to Cruz.

On the Dem side, Sanders is below threshold in both CDs (11.4% and 13.9%, respectively).  Sanders is pulling above 15% in both Hinds and Madison, but only just (15.3% and 16.1%); it doesn't seem like it's going to be enough to pull him above threshold.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, crap.

How many delegates are awarded in each CD?

[Erc]

Well, crap.

How many delegates are awarded in each CD?

3 per CD on the GOP side.  On the Democratic side, it varies based on Democratic strength in the district (9 in CD 2, 5 in CD 3).  If Sanders reaches viability in a district, he'd only pick up 1 delegate.

[Erc]

If anyone can find results by Precinct in Mississippi (Hinds and Madison counties, specifically), I would be much obliged.

[cinyc]

Next contest up is the Virgin Islands GOP caucus, tomorrow (March 10); polls close at 5PM EST.

Apparently, some ex-Rand Paul guys are trying to use the Virgin Islands as their personal rotten borough, according to this Washington Examiner article.

More on the not-yet-validly registered voters (according to the voter registration authorities) potential USVI delegates here:
http://stthomassource.com/content/news/local-news/2016/03/09/new-gop-arrivals-removed-voter-lists-over-residency

[Ljube]

What happens with Carson's delegates when he endorses TRUMP? Do they go to TRUMP?

[Erc]

What happens with Carson's delegates when he endorses TRUMP? Do they go to TRUMP?

Nope. Candidates do not have control over their delegates in that fashion.

At the moment, it seems that his 6 delegates in Iowa and Virginia will be bound to him on the first ballot (Virginia is far less certain than Iowa).

In Nevada, he has two delegates, which he can choose to release entirely, or reallocate them 1 to Trump and 1 to Rubio.

None of these delegates are actually chosen by the Carson camp, so Carson will presumably have very little influence over any delegates he releases.

[Erc]

Virgin Islands Results



via Phil Kerpen and Decision Desk.

John Yob, Erica Yob and Lindsey Eilon are part of the Yobs' rotten borough slate, and their eligibility to delegates may be contested.

Gwendolyn Brady, Warren Cole, and George Logan are well established in the Virgin Islands, and will certainly not have their credentials contested.  Cole and Brady were Uncommitted delegates to the RNC in 2012, as well; they eventually both supported Romney.  Cole donated to Fred Thompson in 2008.

If the Yobs are thrown out, the top three Alternates would be seated instead; Rubio would gain a delegate here.

Regardless, a disappointment for the Cruz camp here; the Cruz effort was led by the same folks who spearheaded the Paul effort here in 2012.

[Slander and/or Libel]

I have a two part question about states where a candidate has the option to release his delegates to be reallocated among the other candidates.

a) If the candidate decides not to release his delegates, do they remain bound to him on the first ballot (understanding of course that rules may vary on this from state to state)?

b) If the candidate does release his delegates and they are reallocated, are the delegates then bound to their reallocated candidate on the first ballot?

[Erc]

I have a two part question about states where a candidate has the option to release his delegates to be reallocated among the other candidates.

a) If the candidate decides not to release his delegates, do they remain bound to him on the first ballot (understanding of course that rules may vary on this from state to state)?

b) If the candidate does release his delegates and they are reallocated, are the delegates then bound to their reallocated candidate on the first ballot?

There are only three states that allow for automatic reallocation as far as I recall, so let's go through them on a case-by-case basis:

South Carolina: If the candidate (in this case Donald Trump) is not placed in nomination at the convention, his delegates are instead bound to the 2nd place winner (Marco Rubio statewide, and Rubio or Cruz depending on the CD), or 3rd place if the 2nd place winner has also dropped out.  Regardless, the binding is only valid on the first ballot.

Nevada: Candidates may, before the State Convention in May, choose to keep, release, or reallocate their delegates based on the results of the caucus vote.  (The default is release).  If they are released, they are free to vote their conscience.  If they are reallocated, they are bound to their new candidates on the first ballot.

Alaska: If a candidate "drops out" (I think this includes suspending their campaign), all of Alaska's delegates are reallocated as if that candidate had received 0 votes in the caucus.  This binding  holds for the first ballot, and also for the second if the new candidate does not place last on the first ballot.

[Erc]

March 12 Contests

Clinton team reports a Clinton win in the Northern Marianas, with a 61% vote share, good enough for a 4-2 delegate split.

Also today are the Iowa County Conventions, where Sanders will be trying to court the support of the few O'Malley delegates to pull off a statewide win.  Counties to keep an eye on are listed here.

On the GOP side, Cruz picks up one officially unpledged delegate in Guam.  Some were reporting 4 Cruz - 2 Trump, but that may just be a rumor.

Also today is the DC Caucus, as well as the Louisiana State Convention, which will pick Louisiana's delegates (including the 5 Uncommitted ones).

[The Other Castro]

At long last, the mystery of the final Iowa delegate will be settled.

[Erc]

At long last, the mystery of the final Iowa delegate will be settled.

Hopefully! Tracking down some of these results may be problematic.