The Delegate Fight: 2016
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Erc
Junior Chimp
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« on: January 18, 2016, 12:07:21 AM »
« edited: May 04, 2016, 11:30:23 AM by Erc »

Welcome once again to my quadrennial delegate-tracking thread (2012 R, 2008 D).

In this thread, I'll also give state-by-state summaries of the delegate allocation process, along with the derivation of the results for each state once they've voted.

I will be tracking both the Republican side (in this post) and the Democratic one (in the next post).

Delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention

StateTrumpCruzKasichOtherUnpledgedTotal
Iowa78114-30
New Hampshire    1130+4-523
South Carolina    50----50
Nevada    14619-30
Alabama    3613--150
Alaska    1112-5-28
Arkansas    1615-9-40
Georgia    4218-16-76
Massachusetts   22488-42
Minnesota   813+5--1238
Oklahoma   13+115+3--1243
Tennessee   3316-9-58
Texas   48104-3-155
Vermont   8---816
Virginia   178519-49
Kansas   92416-40
Kentucky   171577-46
Louisiana   1818+2--846
Maine   9122--23
Puerto Rico   ---23-23
Hawaii   117-1-19
Idaho   1220---32
Michigan   251717--59
Mississippi   2515---40
Virgin Islands*   ----99
D.C.   --910-19
Guam   -0+1--89
Wyoming   123+2--329
Florida   99----99
Illinois   5496--69
Missouri   3715---52
North Carolina   292797-72
Northern Marianas   9----9
Ohio   --66--66
American Samoa   0+20+1--69
Arizona   58----58
Utah   -40---40
Colorado  -30+4--337
North Dakota  0+10+17--1128
Wisconsin  636---42
New York  90-5--95
Connecticut  28----28
Delaware  16----16
Maryland  38----38
Pennsylvania  17+400+30+1-1071
Rhode Island  1225--19
Indiana  57----57
Hard Total10135451421461812027
Unpledged44385-93181
Soft Total1057583147146942027
Future States445

Notes

The Republicans have a small number of unpledged delegates who are free to change their vote on the first ballot; these are indicated in the above counts by the + figures.  The Hard Totals only include pledged delegates; the Soft Totals include both pledged and unpledged delegates.  These unpledged delegates are tracked in detail here (Unbound Delegates tab).

Other. The vast majority of these are Rubio delegates (tracked here), excepting:
  • Ben Carson: Has 3 delegates in both Iowa and Virginia, and 1 delegate in North Carolina, that are still bound to him.  He has 2 delegates in Nevada, which he can choose to keep, release, or reallocate to Trump and Rubio.
  • Other Dropouts: Paul, Bush, Fiorina, and Huckabee have a delegate each bound to them in Iowa.  Bush's 3 NH delegates are still bound.

Uncertainties
:
  • Georgia: Interpretation of the delegate rules is unclear; potentially, Trump could gain 1 delegate each from Rubio and Cruz. CNN agrees with my count.
  • *Virgin Islands: There's a credentials fight here, with the original slate 6 Uncommitted competing with a slate of 2 Uncommitted, 2 Rubio, 1 Trump, and 1 Cruz.  Separately, 3 delegates of the original slate are subject to a residency challenge in the courts, and could be replaced with 2 Uncommitted and 1 Rubio delegate.

Kasich will not qualify under Rule 40 as it currently stands; this releases his delegates in Vermont.  He has also now (5/4) suspended his campaign, releasing his MI delegates.

Cruz has suspended his campaign; see discussion here for the effect on pledged delegate counts.  It also obviously has an effect his unpledged count, as well.

Recent Updates

5/3: Indiana results added. [Final update of the season; see the spreadsheet for further updates.]
4/29: Rhode Island results updated.
4/27: CT/DE/MD/PA/RI results added.
4/19: New York results added.

Unpledged delegates last updated 4/29.

The Upcoming Calendar:
May 7: Minnesota District Conventions (from April 22).
May 10: Nebraska, West Virginia Primaries.
May 14: Oklahoma State Convention (from May 13).
May 15: Nevada State Convention (from May 14).
May 17: Oregon Primary
May 21: Minnesota State Convention (from May 20).  Vermont State Convention.
May 24: Washington Primary
June 7: California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota Primaries.
July 18: Republican National Convention begins.

Delegate Selection Calendar

Useful Links:
The Delegate Fight on tumblr
The Delegate Fight Spreadsheet
Rules of the RNC (there may be a newer version)
Call of the 2016 Republican Convention
Frontloading HQ Executive Summary
Mr. Morden's Calendar and Delegate Allocation Megathread
GOP Presidential Nominating Process Book
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Erc
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« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2016, 12:08:11 AM »
« Edited: May 04, 2016, 09:41:20 AM by Erc »

Delegates to the 2016 Democratic National Convention

StateClinton  Sanders  S-ClintonS-SandersUncommittedTotal
Iowa*23217-252
New Hampshire    9156-232
Nevada*    181741343
South Carolina    39145-143
Alabama    4494-360
American Samoa    4241-11
Arkansas    22105--37
Colorado    254110-278
Georgia    732912-3117
Massachusetts    46451816116
Minnesota    3146123193
Oklahoma    172111242
Tennessee    44236-275
Texas    1477521-8251
Vermont    -1646-26
Virginia    623313-1109
Kansas    10231-337
Louisiana    37147-159
Nebraska    10153-230
Maine*    91631130
Michigan    636711-6147
Mississippi    31532-41
Northern Marianas    425--11
Florida    141732327246
Illinois    79772312182
Missouri    363513--84
North Carolina    60471013121
Ohio    81621412160
Democrats Abroad    4921117
Arizona    423352385
Idaho*    51812127
Utah    62722-37
Alaska*    31311220
Hawaii    81761335
Washington    277410-7118
Wisconsin    384871296
Wyoming*    774--18
New York    13910840-4291
Connecticut    282715-171
Delaware    1297-331
Maryland    61341616118
Pennsylvania    1068321--210
Rhode Island    11139--33
Indiana   39447-292
Hard Subtotal1701141740233953648
Soft Subtotal21031450953648
Future States12589851118
Hard Total170114175274110804766
Soft Total2228145810804766

Notes:

The S-Clinton and S-Sanders columns denote superdelegates who have publicly agreed to support Clinton and Sanders, respectively.

* These are caucus/convention states that have not yet finished their processes, so the final delegate totals could still be subject to change.  Of special note:
  • Iowa: The race for statewide leader here is exceptionally close, with Clinton currently at 704 out of 1406.  If one state delegate flips (or two fail to show), or there's a credentials challenge for the Polk County delegation, one national delegate could flip from Clinton to Sanders.

Some results by CD in MD, PA, and IN are still preliminary.

Recent Updates

5/3: Indiana results added.  [Final update of the season; see the spreadsheet for further updates.]
4/27: CT/DE/MD/PA/RI results added.
4/19: New York results added.

Superdelegates last updated 4/29.

The Upcoming Calendar:
May 7: Guam Caucus.  Maine State Convention ends.
May 10: West Virginia Primary
May 15: Alaska, Nevada State Conventions end.
May 17: Kentucky, Oregon Primaries.
May 28: Wyoming State Convention.
June 4: Virgin Islands Caucus
June 5: Puerto Rico Primary
June 7: California, Montana*, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota* Primaries. North Dakota* Caucus.
June 14: District of Columbia Primary
June 18: Idaho, Iowa State Conventions.
July 25: Democratic National Convention begins.

* These states are part of a "regional cluster," and receive a 15% delegate bonus.

Useful Links
The Delegate Fight Spreadsheet
Charter of the Democratic Party
Call to the 2016 Convention (outdated)
The Green Papers
Frontloading HQ
DNC Table of Delegates
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Erc
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« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2016, 12:33:11 AM »
« Edited: March 16, 2016, 09:25:55 AM by Erc »

Iowa (R): February 1

Overview
30 Delegates (1.21% of Total)
Closed Caucus (Binding)
30 At-Large, Proportional (no threshold)

Voter Eligibility
Only registered Republicans may caucus, though one may register as a Republican at the caucus.  

Delegate Allocation


At each caucus, delegates are chosen to the County Convention.  A presidential preference vote is also held.  In previous years, the former was the key first stage for the selection of Iowa’s delegates to the National Convention, while the latter was what the media reported: the candidate who won the most votes in the presidential preference vote is who “won” the caucus.

In 2016, only the presidential preference vote matters (assuming the convention does not go beyond the first ballot).  The Iowa delegation will be bound by the results of the presidential preference vote taken at the caucus, with each candidate receiving a number of delegates proportional to their vote share.  There is no threshold at all; rounding is done to the nearest whole delegate, while rounding errors are compensated for by giving (or taking) a delegate from the candidates who were closest to (or furthest from) receiving an additional delegate.

It seems that Iowa’s 3 Party Leader delegates will also be bound by the results of the caucus, though The Green Papers disagrees on this point.

Example: 2012 Results

Santorum(24.61%)7 delegates
Romney (24.58%)7
Paul (21.47%)   7
Gingrich (13.33%)4
Perry (10.36%)   3
Bachmann (4.99%)2

Bachmann and Paul both gained a delegate from rounding errors.  Compare this to my initial projection in 2012 under the old system, which (out of a total of 25 delegates) gave 10 each to Santorum and Romney, 5 to Paul, and none to anyone else.  For a starker comparison (and the reason the system was changed), note that the floor vote at the convention gave 22 to Ron Paul and 6 to Mitt Romney due to Paulista shenanigans.

Delegate Selection

The delegates are chosen by the State Convention (May 21) and by Congressional District Caucuses (April 9); delegates to each of those are chosen at County Conventions on March 12, while delegates to County Conventions are chosen at the March 1 caucuses.

Deadlocked Convention / Withdrawn Candidates

Delegates whose candidates withdraw or are not placed in nomination are explicitly not reallocated among other candidates.  Neither are they released, it seems, so they would presumably have to abstain.

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There might be some wiggle room here (reading the provision as an anti-reallocation rather than an anti-releasing measure), but it doesn't seem like it.

All of Iowa’s delegates are bound only for the first ballot.  In the unlikely event of multiple ballots, they will be free to vote their conscience.  

Results

Candidate   Percent   Delegates
Cruz27.65%8
Trump24.31%7
Rubio23.09%7
Carson9.31%3
Paul4.54%1
Bush2.80%1
Fiorina1.86%1
Kasich1.86%1
Huckabee1.79%1
Christie1.75%0
Santorum0.95%0
Others0.07%0

Christie is denied a delegate due to rounding errors.  Huckabee, Paul, and Fiorina keep their delegates through the first ballot despite suspending their campaigns.

Useful Links

Iowa GOP Constitution
Frontloading HQ: Iowa
The Green Papers: Iowa
Republican Party of Iowa Bylaws
Rules of the RNC
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #3 on: January 20, 2016, 06:01:40 PM »

The following seems like a good article to mention in this thread, because it takes a stab at what several candidates should aim for in terms of delegate numbers:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/beware-a-gop-calendar-front-loaded-with-states-friendly-to-trump-and-cruz/
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cxs018
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« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2016, 06:11:39 PM »

For superdelegates:

3 Iowa superdelegates (Jan Bauer, Linda Langston, Dave Loebsack) are supporting Clinton.
6 New Hampshire superdelegates (Joanne Dowdell, Maggie Hassan, Ann Kuster, Billy Shaheen, Jeanne Shaheen, Kathy Sullivan) are supporting Clinton.
3 Nevada superdelegates (Ruben Kihuen, Andres Ramirez, Dina Titus) are supporting Clinton. One (Erin Bilbray) is supporting Sanders.
2 South Carolina superdelegates (Donald Fowler, Kaye Koonce) are supporting Clinton. One (Boyd Brown) is supporting O'Malley.
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Erc
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« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2016, 11:35:38 PM »
« Edited: January 20, 2016, 11:41:55 PM by Erc »

For superdelegates:

3 Iowa superdelegates (Jan Bauer, Linda Langston, Dave Loebsack) are supporting Clinton.
6 New Hampshire superdelegates (Joanne Dowdell, Maggie Hassan, Ann Kuster, Billy Shaheen, Jeanne Shaheen, Kathy Sullivan) are supporting Clinton.
3 Nevada superdelegates (Ruben Kihuen, Andres Ramirez, Dina Titus) are supporting Clinton. One (Erin Bilbray) is supporting Sanders.
2 South Carolina superdelegates (Donald Fowler, Kaye Koonce) are supporting Clinton. One (Boyd Brown) is supporting O'Malley.

Thanks for the heads up!

Organizationally, I'm not sure what to do with the Democratic superdelegates.  In 2008 I kept track of them state-by-state as they voted.  This was a bone of some contention, as it tended to understate Clinton's support due to her (initial) advantage in superdelegates.

Any thoughts this time around?  In the main post, should I keep track of the superdelegates by state, have a separate superdelegates row, or some sort of hybrid scheme (e.g. adding a row for superdelegates in states yet to vote)?

Right now, if Wikipedia is to be believed, Clinton has an unsurprisingly overwhelming lead in the superdelegates, 338 for her to 11 for Sanders (and 3 for O'Malley), with 363 uncommitted.  An AP survey of all the superdelegates in November found an even larger advantage, with 359 (of the 579 they were able to contact) supporting Clinton.

For comparison, Clinton in 2008 never had the support of more than 292.5 superdelegates, and that was after most of the states had voted.  Unlike in 2008, Clinton truly does have a safe (and huge!) buffer with superdelegates that Sanders is incredibly unlikely to make up in pledged delegates barring some catastrophe.
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Erc
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« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2016, 01:22:42 AM »
« Edited: February 04, 2016, 04:37:21 PM by Erc »

Iowa (D): February 1

Overview
52 Delegates (1.09% of Total)
Closed Caucus
15 At-Large (including 6 PLEO)
29 by CD
8 Superdelegates

At the Caucus


The Democratic Iowa caucus is a complicated beast.  Unlike on the Republican side, there's no straw poll, per se.  Each precinct caucus elects delegates to their local County Convention.  These delegates will be pledged to a particular candidate (or they can be officially Uncommitted, though this hasn't played a major role since the 70's).

Delegates to the county convention are allocated proportionally among the presidential candidates that meet a 15% threshold at the precinct (potentially higher for precincts entitled to fewer delegates).  Those attendees favoring candidates falling below the threshold may recaucus with another candidate instead; given the state of the race this is unlikely to have much of an effect beyond reallocating the few O'Malley voters.

What is reported to the media at the end of the night is the number of "state delegate equivalents" each candidate received.  Basically, this takes the number of County delegates each candidates receives and weights it by each county's representation at the State Convention.  It's unclear whether this takes into account the 15% viability threshold at the County Conventions, but this is unlikely to matter as O'Malley is unlikely to meet viability in many precincts in the first place.

County Conventions - March 12

The delegates elected at the caucuses now meet in each county.  Each county convention elects delegates to Congressional District and State Conventions, allocated proportionally among presidential candidates. The process is similar to the one at the caucus, including a 15% threshold.  Delegates are not bound to support who they supported at the precinct caucuses, so there may be room for some shenanigans here.  

District Conventions - April 30

Another round of conventions, same rules as before, in each Congressional District.  The more Democratic districts have more delegates, as follows:

CD 1 - 8 delegates
CD 2 - 8
CD 3 - 7
CD 4 - 6

State Convention - June 18

The State Convention chooses 9 At-Large and 6 Pledged PLEO delegates, in much the same fashion as the other conventions.

Superdelegates

Clinton (7):  Rep. David Loebsack,  Jan Bauer, Linda Langston, Mike Gronstal, Vice Chair Danny Homan, Sandy Opstvedt, Scott Brennan

Uncommitted (1): Chair Andy McGuire (Clinton 2008)

Results

Clinton 23 - Sanders 21

The closeness of the race means that Clinton and Sanders basically split the delegates.  The only two still up for grabs are 1 At-Large delegate and 1 delegate in CD 3.  CD 3 was Clinton's best district, so she wins the delegate there.  The remaining At-Large delegate I am also assigning for Clinton, though Sanders might be able to eke it out if he gets the support of 90% or more of the remaining O'Malley delegates.  A detailed discussion can be found here.

Useful Links
2016 Iowa Delegate Selection Plan
The Green Papers
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Erc
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« Reply #7 on: January 22, 2016, 04:03:45 AM »
« Edited: April 27, 2016, 09:40:01 AM by Erc »

Democratic Superdelegates

NOTE: This list is no longer being updated.


Clinton499 69.8%
Sanders415.7%
Uncommitted   17524.5%

Recent Updates

4/20: Valerie McCall (OH) for Clinton.
4/19: Rep. Dan Lipinski (IL) for Sanders.
4/17: David Paterson (NY), supported Clinton, no longer a superdelegate.
4/15: Debra Haaland (NM) from Clinton to Uncommitted; Joni Gutierrez, Fred Harris (NM) to Clinton.
4/14: Heather Mizeur (MD) from Clinton to Sanders.
4/13: Sen. Jeff Merkley (OR) for Sanders.
4/9: Johnnie Patton (MS), Doug Pyle (HI) for Sanders; Bel Leong-Hong (MD) for Clinton.  Rep. Rick Nolan (MN) from Clinton to Sanders.
4/8: Rep. Ron Kind (WI) for Clinton.  David Bowen (WI) for Sanders.

Notes

About 15% of the delegates at the Democratic National Convention are the so-called "superdelegates" or "unpledged PLEOs": Democratic National Committee members, Democratic Congressmen, Senators, and Representatives, and a few former high-ranking Democrats.  There are 715 votes of these in total, and they are completely free to support whoever they want to, though more than half have also endorsed a candidate.  Some have alternates, but most do not; if they fail to show at the convention, there are just fewer delegates at Philadelphia.

I will also provide the sources for these endorsements, whether primary or secondary.

My accounting will not be free of errors nor completely up to date, so if you catch anything I'm missing, please let me know!

For the purposes of this accounting, an "endorsement" can be one of many things.  These include an official, press release style endorsement, an explicit endorsement on Twitter (retweets don't count), results of the AP superdelegate surveys, inclusion on a Clinton Leadership Team, appearance at a fundraiser for Hillary (or Ready for Hillary), or donating money to Hillary (or Ready for Hillary). Endorsements made on behalf of an organization they are the chair of also count. Endorsements (implicit or explicit) may be retracted, and this has happened on two occasions so far.  Supporting Clinton in 2008 is of course indicative, but does not count for these purposes.

A list of the elected officials who have not endorsed can be found here, and may be of some use.

There's also a Pelosi Club (see 2008) that will back the pledged delegate leader, currently consisting of Pat Leahy, Christine Pelosi, and Becca Doten; I've kept the first two in the Clinton camp, for now, as does the AP.

Democratic Superdelegates by State

StateClinton    Sanders   Uncommitted
Iowa7-1
New Hampshire    6-2
Nevada413
South Carolina4-2
Alabama4-3
American Samoa41-
Arkansas5--
Colorado10-2
Georgia11-4
Massachusetts1717
Minnesota1231
Oklahoma112
Tennessee6-2
Texas18-11
Vermont46-
Virginia13-1
Kansas1-3
Louisiana7-1
Nebraska3-2
Maine311
Democrats Abroad   211
Michigan10-7
Mississippi32-
Northern Marianas5--
Florida2327
Illinois2213
Missouri12-1
North Carolina8-5
Ohio1412
Arizona523
Idaho121
Utah22-
Alaska112
Hawaii622
Washington10-7
Wisconsin613
Wyoming4--
New York39-5
Connecticut15-1
Delaware7-3
Maryland1616
Pennsylvania18-3
Rhode Island9--
Indiana7-2
Guam3-2
West Virginia512
Kentucky2-3
Oregon616
Virgin Islands212
Puerto Rico3-4
California51-22
Montana1-5
New Jersey925
New Mexico7-2
North Dakota113
South Dakota1-4
D.C.2024
Unassigned--2

Useful Links:
DNC List of Unpledged Delegates (as of 1/21: note also that it is not error-free)
Wikipedia
AP Delegate Tracker
Bloomberg Delegate Tracker
DNC Table of Delegates
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Erc
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« Reply #8 on: January 27, 2016, 03:18:19 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2016, 12:22:19 PM by Erc »

New Hampshire (R): February 9

Overview
23 Delegates (0.93% of total)
Half-Open Primary
23 At-Large, Proportional (10% threshold)

Voter Eligibility
Registered Republican and Independents may vote in the primary.

Delegate Allocation
20 delegates are allocated between among all candidates who receive at least 10% of the vote in the primary.  Each candidate receives a proportion of the delegates equal to the proportion of the statewide vote they received, with fractional delegates rounded to the nearest whole number.  Any remaining unallocated delegates are given to the winner of the primary.  Thus, if there are a large number of votes going to candidates who receive under 10% of the vote (as may happen early in the season with such a divided field), the winning candidate may receive a nice bonus to their delegate count.

Delegate Selection
By December 11, all candidates had to provide a list of delegates to the Secretary of State.  After the primary, the candidates choose which of these delegates they want to Cleveland, based on the results of the primary.


Deadlocked Convention / Withdrawn Candidates


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What "withdraws" means is not very clear, but the delegate candidates also sign a pledge form:

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As a result, I'm viewing this as another possible release trigger, and am releasing Bush's and Rubio's delegates accordingly.

Results

Candidate  Percent  Delegates  
Trump35.34%11
Kasich15.81%4
Cruz11.68%3
Bush11.02%3
Rubio10.57%2

All other candidates fell well below the threshold.  The Secretary of State apparently believes that the allocation should be 10 Trump - 3 Rubio, claiming there should be an intermediate rounding step of the percentages.  The state GOP uses the (in my view) correct procedure, getting the above answer.  It is possible Rubio may challenge this, though his suspension makes this much less likely.

Delegates

Bush (3)
Judd Gregg - Kasich
Jennifer Horn (RNC)
James H. Adams

Cruz (3)
William O'Brien
Robert Clinton Smith
Juliana Bergeron (RNC)

Kasich (4)
Gordon J. Humphrey
Thomas D. Rath
John E. Sununu
Stephen Duprey (RNC)

Rubio (2)
James F. Merrill
Gordon J. MacDonald

Trump (11)
Alfred Baldasaro
Judy Baldasaro
Robert Burns
Frederick Doucette
Louis Gargiulo
Paula Johnson
Corey R. Lewandowski
Stephen Stepanek
Ellen Suprunowicz
Daniel Tamburello
Joshua Whitehouse

Useful Links
New Hampshire Title LXIII Section 659:93
The Green Papers: NH
Frontloading HQ: NH
Results and Delegates
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Erc
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« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2016, 04:09:25 PM »
« Edited: January 27, 2016, 04:50:54 PM by Erc »

It should be noted that the process of nominating the Republican candidate for President has already started, apparently unnoticed by everyone.

On January 19, Republicans from eight Legislative Districts in Fargo (out of a total of 47 statewide) met and elected delegates to the State Convention (also to be held in Fargo, April 1-3).  We have no idea how they turned out.  The remaining 38 conventions will be held over the course of the next month, with the last no later than March 1.

North Dakota is having no straw poll this year, so the elections at the Legislative District Conventions are critical in the ultimate choice of North Dakota's delegation.  All 28 delegates from North Dakota will be officially unbound at Cleveland, though presumably presidential preference will be a major factor if the nomination is still contested as of early April.

As has been noted elsewhere, early voting has also begun for several of the early primary states, most notably South Carolina.
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« Reply #10 on: January 27, 2016, 05:08:17 PM »

Awesome thread, should this not be stickied?
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Erc
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« Reply #11 on: January 27, 2016, 05:09:50 PM »
« Edited: February 09, 2016, 11:50:03 PM by Erc »

New Hampshire (D): February 9

Overview
32 Delegates (0.67% of total)
Half-Open Primary
5 At-Large
3 PLEO At-Large
16 by CD
8 Superdelegates

Voter Eligibility
Both registered Democrats and Independents may vote in the primary.

Summary
Delegates are allocated proportionally in each congressional district (8 in each) and At-Large (5 At-Large and 3 PLEO) among all candidates meeting a 15% threshold in that jurisdiction. Rounding is not specified, but democrats usually follow the largest remainder method among all candidates meeting the threshold.

Results

Sanders broke 56.25% of the two-way vote in both districts, thus winning the largest feasible number of delegates.

JurisdictionClintonSanders
CD 135
CD 235
At Large23
PLEO12
Total915

Superdelegates

Clinton (6): Gov. Maggie Hassan, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, Rep. Ann Kuster, Joanne Dowdell, Kathy Sullivan, William Shaheen

Uncommitted (2): Chair Raymond Buckley, Vice Chair Martha Fuller Clark (Clinton 2008)

Useful Links
NH Delegate Selection Plan
The Green Papers: NH-D
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« Reply #12 on: January 27, 2016, 06:03:09 PM »

It should be noted that the process of nominating the Republican candidate for President has already started, apparently unnoticed by everyone.

On January 19, Republicans from eight Legislative Districts in Fargo (out of a total of 47 statewide) met and elected delegates to the State Convention (also to be held in Fargo, April 1-3).  We have no idea how they turned out.  The remaining 38 conventions will be held over the course of the next month, with the last no later than March 1.

North Dakota is having no straw poll this year, so the elections at the Legislative District Conventions are critical in the ultimate choice of North Dakota's delegation.  All 28 delegates from North Dakota will be officially unbound at Cleveland, though presumably presidential preference will be a major factor if the nomination is still contested as of early April.

As has been noted elsewhere, early voting has also begun for several of the early primary states, most notably South Carolina.

Do you think you could please provide a link to this info? Smiley
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« Reply #13 on: January 27, 2016, 07:39:54 PM »
« Edited: January 27, 2016, 07:44:17 PM by Erc »

It should be noted that the process of nominating the Republican candidate for President has already started, apparently unnoticed by everyone.

On January 19, Republicans from eight Legislative Districts in Fargo (out of a total of 47 statewide) met and elected delegates to the State Convention (also to be held in Fargo, April 1-3).  We have no idea how they turned out.  The remaining 38 conventions will be held over the course of the next month, with the last no later than March 1.

-snip-

Do you think you could please provide a link to this info? Smiley

I found a calendar, which had been eluding me earlier.

Since then there have been conventions in Wahpeton (January 23) and Mandan (January 26).  There are four conventions today in Bismarck; two of them are in progress as we speak, with two more starting within the hour.

18 of the conventions are going to be held before the Iowa caucuses.

2 are held between Iowa and New Hampshire.

22 are held between New Hampshire and South Carolina.

2 are held between South Carolina and Nevada.

5 are held between Nevada and Super Tuesday, with the final convention at 3PM on February 28 in Bottineau, ND.

A picture of the first convention can be found on NDGOP's Facebook page.
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« Reply #14 on: January 27, 2016, 09:15:03 PM »
« Edited: April 17, 2016, 04:33:15 PM by Erc »

(GOP Delegate Selection Calendar now tracked on the tumblr.)
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« Reply #15 on: January 29, 2016, 04:35:01 PM »
« Edited: April 15, 2016, 03:44:03 PM by Erc »

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« Reply #16 on: January 29, 2016, 05:51:23 PM »
« Edited: April 15, 2016, 09:50:24 PM by Erc »

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« Reply #17 on: February 01, 2016, 11:52:46 AM »
« Edited: March 03, 2016, 04:59:57 PM by Erc »

South Carolina (R): February 20

Overview

50 Delegates (2.02% of total)
Open Primary
29 At-Large (WTA)
21 District (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

All 29 At-Large delegates (including the three RNC members) will be bound to the winner of the statewide primary.

In each of South Carolina’s 7 Congressional Districts, 3 delegates will be bound to the winner of the primary in that district.

Delegate Selection


The delegates themselves are chosen by District Conventions in April and a State Convention in May.  Delegates to these are chosen at County Conventions in March.  Delegates to those County Conventions are generally chosen at Precinct meetings earlier in March.

Deadlocked Convention / Withdrawn Candidates

All delegates are bound only for the first ballot.  In the event the candidate to which any delegate is bound is not placed in nomination at the convention, they are instead bound to the second place (or, failing that, third place) candidate in their jurisdiction.  If none of the top three candidates in the jurisdiction are placed in nomination, the delegate is unbound.  These provisions are found in SC State GOP Rules; it is unclear whether the provision to award delegates to the second-place finisher, etc., conflict with national GOP rules, and, if so, whether the national GOP would enforce its supremacy.

Useful Links
SC GOP Rules
Frontloading HQ: SC
The Green Papers: SC
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« Reply #18 on: February 01, 2016, 12:48:10 PM »
« Edited: April 03, 2016, 12:13:50 AM by Erc »

Nevada (D): February 20

Overview
43 Delegates (0.90% of total)
Closed Caucus
7 At-Large
6 PLEO At-Large
23 by CD
8 Superdelegates

Voter Eligibility
Only registered Democrats may vote in the caucus, though voters may reaffiliate as Democrats on the day.

At the Caucus

Nevada is a caucus state, just like Iowa, and it works in much the same fashion (though one distinction is that those who voted for viable candidates are not allowed to recaucus; this diminishes the possibility of weird tactical voting for Uncommitted).  Each precinct elects some number of delegates to a County Convention.  These are allocated among the candidates receiving 15% support in each precinct (or higher in precincts with a small number of delegates).  As in Iowa, voters supporting a candidate which does not meet the threshold may recaucus to support a different candidate.

The numbers reported to the media at the end of the day will be quite literally the number of delegates to County Conventions won by each candidate.  The apportionment favors the smaller, rural counties over the larger ones--i.e. Clark, Washoe, Carson City, Douglas, Lyon, Nye, and Elko will be slightly underrepresented, though they will obviously still dominate proceedings.  Extremely small precincts are also favored.

UPDATE: The district level delegates are awarded based on the vote at the caucus (5 in CD 1, 6 each in CDs 2-4)

County Conventions - April 2

Each county holds its own Convention.  This operates quite similarly to the caucuses, with a 15% viability threshold.  Delegates are free to re-caucus with a candidate different from the one they were elected to support in February, so there is some potential for shenanigans here.  Each county elects delegates to the State Convention.

State Convention - May 14

Another round of re-caucusing may occur here. 7 At-Large and 5 PLEO At-Large delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates meeting a 15% threshold from State Convention delegates in that jurisdiction.

Results (2/21):

Clinton won the state and CD 1, as well as breaking 58.33% in CD 4 to win 4 of the 6 delegates there.  The last one is the closest, but her lead seems secure barring shenanigans, even after two additional rounds of conventions.  This means the pledged delegate count out of Nevada is:

Clinton: 20
Sanders: 15

Update (4/3): Shenanigans did indeed occur, and Sanders picks up two delegates from Clinton in the At-Large pools.  New result:

Clinton: 18
Sanders: 17

Superdelegates

Clinton (4): Rep. Dina Titus, Ruben Kihuen, Andres Ramirez, Sen. Harry Reid

Sanders (1): Erin Bilbray-Kohn

Uncommitted (3): Chair Roberta Lange, Vice Chair Chris Wicker, Artie Blanco

Useful Links
NV Delegate Selection Plan
NV Delegates by County
The Green Papers: NV-D
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« Reply #19 on: February 01, 2016, 03:26:57 PM »
« Edited: March 16, 2016, 09:31:29 AM by Erc »

Nevada (R): February 23

Overview
30 Delegates (1.21% of total)
Closed Caucus (Binding)
30 At-Large (Proportional, 3.33% threshold)

Delegate Allocation
Unlike at previous caucuses, all 30 delegates (including the RNC members) will be bound by the result of the Presidential Preference Poll taken at the Nevada caucuses.  Delegates are assigned proportionally, with rounding done to the nearest whole number, among those candidates who meet a 3.33% threshold.  Note that neither write-in nor “None of the Above” votes are considered valid, and thus will not affect the delegate allocation math.  Residual rounding errors are resolved by giving a delegate to (taking one from) the candidate closest to (furthest from) getting an additional delegate.


Delegate Selection

The delegates are chosen at a State Convention (probably in early May?); delegates at the State convention are chosen at County Conventions, whose delegates are chosen at the caucuses.  There are extensive rules for ensuring that the delegates elected at the state convention are allocated to their preferred candidate, as far as is possible.

Deadlocked Convention / Withdrawn Candidates
All delegates are bound only for the first ballot.  30 days prior to the state convention, the Secretary of the Nevada Republican Party contacts each candidate, asking them whether they want to keep their allotted delegates, release them, or reallocate them proportionally among the other candidates.  The candidates have until 10 days prior to the state convention to respond; if they fail to respond, they are considered to have released their delegates.  Any candidate who suspends or otherwise discontinues their campaign after the state convention will automatically release their delegates.

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There may be some wiggle room for Rubio and Carson to keep their delegates, as they discontinued their campaigns before the State Convention, but I will be treating them as Uncommitted for the time being.

Results

CandidatePercent*Delegates
Trump46.12%14
Rubio23.96%7
Cruz21.47%6
Carson4.83%2
Kasich3.62%1

*among threshold-meeting candidates.

Carson edges out Cruz for the final delegate by only 20 votes.

Now that Carson has dropped out, he can choose to release his delegates, or have them bound to other candidates proportionally.  This latter option means that Trump and Cruz would each gain a delegate.  The same applies to Rubio; 5 of his would go to Trump and 2 to Cruz.  The default option is releasing them.

Useful Links

NV GOP Standing Rules
The Green Papers: NV-R
Frontloading HQ: NV
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« Reply #20 on: February 01, 2016, 03:37:02 PM »
« Edited: February 27, 2016, 11:46:04 PM by Erc »

South Carolina (D): February 27

Overview
59 Delegates (1.24% of total)
Open Primary
11 At-Large
7 PLEO At-Large
35 by CD
6 Superdelegates

Voter Eligibility
Any registered voter may participate, provided they did not participate in the previous week's Republican Presidential Primary.

Summary
Delegates are allocated proportionally in each congressional district (3 in CD 3; 4 in CD 4; 5 in CDs 1,2,5,7; 8 in CD 6) and At-Large (11 At-Large and 7 PLEO) among all candidates meeting a 15% threshold in that jurisdiction.

Results (2/27)

Clinton 39 - Sanders 14

Clinton's 73.8% victory in the two-way race means she wins the At-Large and PLEO delegates 13-5.  

Sanders' anemic vote totals were good for only 1 delegate in each of the CDs, except in CDs 1 and 2, where he got 34.5% and 30.6% of the vote, respectively, breaking the 30% level necessary for 2 delegates in each.  In CD 6, he pulled in 16.4%, above the 15% threshold.

Superdelegates

Clinton (5): Donald Fowler, Vice-Chair Kaye Koonce, Boyd Brown, Rep. Jim Clyburn, Chair Jaime Harrison

Uncommitted (1): Gilda Cobb-Hunter

Useful Links
SC Delegate Selection Plan
The Green Papers: SC-D
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« Reply #21 on: February 01, 2016, 05:26:26 PM »
« Edited: April 03, 2016, 08:42:48 PM by Erc »

North Dakota (R): January 19 - April 3

Overview
28 Delegates (1.13% of total)
Closed Conventions (non-binding)
25 At-Large
3 RNC Members

Legislative District Conventions: January 19 - February 28

In each of North Dakota's 47 Legislative Districts, conventions are held to elect delegates to the State Convention.  These are being held over a span of several weeks, ranging from January 19 to February 28.  No form of straw poll is being held, and there has been little reporting on these conventions, so we have no idea which candidate is doing well at these conventions, or even if candidate preference has been a major factor in the selection of delegates.

State Convention: April 1 - 3

At some point before the State Convention in Fargo, the Committee on Permanent Organization will accept applicants for delegates to the National Convention.  They will consider these applicants, and from them draw up a slate of 25 delegates, including automatically Gov. Jack Dalrymple, Sen. John Hoeven, and Rep. Kevin Cramer.  There's a vague formula that the Committee is instructed to use to select its slate; it can be found here.

At the convention itself, additional delegate candidates may have their name placed in nomination from the floor, though they must have originally applied to the Committee on Permanent Organization in order to be eligible.  A vote is then held on the convention floor, with each State delegate present entitled to vote for 25 National delegate candidates.  The top 25 finishers will go on to Cleveland.  For a good example as to how this actually works, see The Green Papers' report on the 2012 convention.  Note the huge gap between #25 and #26, suggesting that the slate suggested by the Committee on Permanent organization was elected with little difficulty.

The preliminary agenda suggests the delegates to Cleveland will be chosen on April 2.

RNC Members (unbound)
Kelly Armstrong
Sandy Boehler
Curly Haugland

Delegates (elected April 3)

Rick Becker - Cruz
Jack Dalrymple (Governor)
Wayne Stenehjem (Attorney General) - staying neutral
Shane Goettle - Cruz
Jim Poolman   Cruz
Bette Grande   Cruz
Dick Dever    - on Cruz slate (unwillingly), prefers Kasich but undecided.
Wesley Belter   Cruz
David Hogue   Cruz
Jessica Unruh   Cruz
Betsy Dalrymple (First Lady)
Ben Koppelman   Cruz
Mark Owens   Cruz
Gary Emineth - leans Trump   
Janna Myrdal   Cruz
Roscoe Streyle   Cruz
John Trandem   Cruz
Clare Carlson   Cruz
Scott Louser   Cruz
John Olson   
Daniel Traynor   Cruz
James Kerian   Cruz
Judy Estenson   Cruz
Kelly Schmidt (State Treasurer) - leans Cruz
Bob Wefald   

Deadlocked Convention / Withdrawn Candidates

All delegates are entirely unbound, though they may well express a preference at the State Convention.

Useful Links
ND GOP Rules
Frontloading HQ: ND
The Green Papers: ND-R
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« Reply #22 on: February 02, 2016, 12:49:45 AM »
« Edited: February 04, 2016, 04:01:45 PM by Erc »

Republicans

Candidate   Percent   Delegates
Cruz27.64%8
Trump24.30%7
Rubio23.12%7
Carson9.30%3
Paul4.54%1
Bush2.80%1
Fiorina1.86%1
Kasich1.86%1
Huckabee1.79%1
Christie1.76%0
Santorum0.95%0
Other0.07%0

Bush, Fiorina, Kasich, and Huckabee all round up to 1 delegate.  Christie would as well, but his would be the 31st total delegate, so he is bumped.  Huckabee's leaving the race does not affect these results; his delegate officially remains bound to him through to Cleveland.

Results now certified by the Iowa GOP.

Democrats

Clinton 21 - Sanders 21 - Too Close to Call 2

This is an incredibly close race, and will require me digging through precinct-by-precinct results to make projections.  However, due to the closeness of the race, we expect Sanders and Clinton to split the delegates in any jurisdiction with an even number of delegates.  We can thus easily project 21 delegates for Clinton and 21 for Sanders, with the remaining 2 (1 statewide and 1 in CD 3) still up for grabs.  This will depend not only on the individual precinct results, but also on the dynamics of the County Conventions and the state conventions.  If some delegates don't show up to the next stage, that will make a difference.
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« Reply #23 on: February 02, 2016, 08:53:03 AM »

Shouldn't 3 of 30 GOP IA delegates be party leaders?
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« Reply #24 on: February 02, 2016, 11:47:01 AM »
« Edited: February 02, 2016, 11:53:02 AM by Erc »

Shouldn't 3 of 30 GOP IA delegates be party leaders?

It's unclear from both IA and National GOP rules whether those party leaders are also bound by the results of the caucuses.  This is a change from 2012 or other previous years, when they would clearly be unbound.

If only 27 delegates were bound by the caucus, then Cruz, Rubio, and Huckabee would each lose a delegate.

Frontloading HQ contacted the Iowa GOP, and they said they were allocating all 30.  (He gives another explanation on his Twitter).

The appropriate section in the Iowa bylaws is "The Iowa delegation to the Republican National Convention shall be bound on the first ballot to vote proportionally in accordance with the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses.... The Chairman of the Iowa delegation, or his or her designee, shall announce the vote of the delegation in accordance with this Article."  That does seem to imply that the whole delegation, including the 3 RNC members, are bound by the caucuses, though it's not ironclad.
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