The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Erc]

Kentucky Results

Trump 17 - Cruz 15 - Rubio 7 - Kasich 7

Trump had a rally in the final 10% of precincts or so, taking a delegate from Rubio.

[Erc]

Louisiana Results

At-Large:

Trump 12 - Cruz 11 - Uncommitted 5

The delegates are chosen next Saturday at the State Convention.

CD:

These are a mess.  Results are still preliminary and we don't know how to handle the rounding rules here.  State convention has some leeway (it just has to be "proportional").

I'm going to assume they follow the fairest method of rounding: to the nearest delegate and if the totals don't add up, give a delegate to the candidate closest to getting an additional delegate.  The breakdowns are then (Trump-Cruz-Rubio):

CD 1: 1-1-1
CD 2: 1-1-1
CD 3: 1-1-1
CD 4: 1-2-0
CD 5: 1-1-1
CD 6: 1-1-1

CDs 1,2, and 6 are still slow on reporting; the above counts are from digging through precinct results.  Note that this misses a lot of early votes in CDs 1, 2, and 6; I don't expect these to affect the totals, even given Trump's strength in the early voting (Rubio also did disproportionately well in early voting).

Update: Miles appears to have found complete CD results that verify these numbers.

Cruz won where Rubio did abysmally, so Cruz is looking like he ties Trump here in total.  

[Erc]

March 5 Results

Cruz 69 - Trump 53 - Rubio 18 - Kasich 10 - Uncommitted 5

Overall, a good day for Cruz, a mediocre day for Trump, and a bad day for Rubio.

Cruz won delegate majorities in KS & ME, tied (and may eventually win) in Louisiana, and lost KY by two delegates.

Clinton 59 - Sanders 50

Clinton again continues to get larger margins in the states she wins than Sanders, meaning she comes out ahead again on pledged delegates.

[Erc]

Puerto Rico results

Rubio seems to be on course for a majority of the vote and all 23 delegates.

[ElectionsGuy]

According to my count Rubio has 155. Nonetheless, the total delegate percentages so far stand at...

Trump: 42.8%
Cruz: 33.4%
Rubio: 17.1%
Kasich: 4.1%
Other: 2.5%

[Erc]

According to my count Rubio has 155. Nonetheless, the total delegate percentages so far stand at...

Trump: 42.8%
Cruz: 33.4%
Rubio: 17.1%
Kasich: 4.1%
Other: 2.5%

Late returns in KY switched a delegate from Rubio to Trump; forgot to update the Kentucky entry but did update the totals.

[ElectionsGuy]

Okay, but now Trump has 389 by my count

[Erc]

Okay, but now Trump has 389 by my count

That's my mistake.  Fixed!

[ElectionsGuy]

Okay, but now Trump has 389 by my count

That's my mistake.  Fixed!

No problem. Thanks.

[Erc]

Updated Delegate Map:



and Trump Tetris.



Red dotted line is what a majority of the delegates from the states that have already voted would be.

[Ebsy]

TRUMP Tetris is grand. I'm going to guess that if he is going to get a majority of delegates, it will be California that puts him over the top.

[Erc]

TRUMP Tetris is grand. I'm going to guess that if he is going to get a majority of delegates, it will be California that puts him over the top.

Yeah, Trump clinching before June 7 seems difficult, barring highly consistent Trump landslides or a Cruz dropout.

[Erc]

The Louisiana GOP has clarified the delegate count there; as we had been assuming, Trump, Cruz, and Rubio split the CD delegates except in CD 4, where a particularly poor showing by Rubio in a strong Cruz district meant Cruz won 2 to Trump's 1.

Final delegate counts out of Louisiana are then:

Trump 18 - Cruz 18 - Rubio 5 - Uncommitted 5

With Cruz likely to pick up the (non-binding) support of those Uncommitted delegates this Saturday, seems like Cruz may end up being the delegate winner out of Louisiana after all, despite his loss in the popular vote.

[Erc]

FHQ today did a piece on all the various delegate discrepancies among various media sources and each other.  I'm going to present my take here, state-by-state.  I'm ignoring states where CBS is the only dissenter, as they're just generally terrible.

Arkansas: Only issue here is 2nd place in CD 3. CNN, The Green Papers, and I have called it for Cruz; FHQ and the AP have yet to make a call.

Georgia: A couple of issues here.  First, there's a question of who took second place in CDs 4 and 13; CNN, the Green Papers, and I have called them for Cruz, whereas the AP and FHQ still seem to have them too close to call.  Second, there's the question of how the RNC members are allocated.  This is honestly ambiguous in the rules; CNN and I appear to put them as part of the At-Large pool, whereas FHQ disagrees and gives them to Trump separately.  The Green Papers has its own weird system for the At-Large pool which seems to be just wrong.

Tennessee: Again, a CD results issue for CD 9.  The Green Papers, and I give Trump 2 and Cruz 1; FHQ and the AP leave it uncalled entirely.  CNN apparently gives Trump 2 and Rubio 1 here.  Until earlier today I agreed with CNN's count, due to a mistake in my reading of the rules for the At-Large delegates.

Texas: The issue here is CD 33.  The AP count has Rubio winning a majority here (and thus all 3 delegates), while the TX SoS results would indicate Cruz winning 2 to Trump's 1.  CNN, FHQ, The Green Papers and I all side with the SoS here; the AP apparently realizes something is up with their count and hasn't called those three delegates yet.  Honestly, this looks like an AP data entry error: compare AP and SoS returns.

So, the discrepancies are really the GA rules issue and CD breakdowns in AR CD 3, GA CD 4 & 13, TN CD 9, and TX CD 33.

Our resident CD vote tracker, Miles, has counts for AR and GA CDs; my delegate counts agree with his results.  TX 33 is likely an error on the part of the AP; TN 9 is in principle still open, though our resident Memphis experts may know the answer already.  A Cruz second place finish seems highly likely based on the overall result and the geographical distribution of Rubio's vote.

[Erc]

If Rubio were to suspend his campaign...

What happens to his delegates?

Remain Bound Regardless

In Iowa, they would apparently remain bound to him on the first ballot, regardless.

Released Automatically

In New Hampshire, they would be released.

In Nevada, they would be released.  Alternatively, Rubio could choose to reallocate them, in which case 5 would go to Trump and 2 to Cruz.  Rubio's dropout would also mean that if Carson chose to reallocate his delegates, the one that would have gone to Rubio would go to Cruz instead.

In Oklahoma, they are released if he is "for any reason no longer a candidate."  I'm assuming this includes if he doesn't get placed into nomination at Cleveland, which would almost certainly be the case unless he decides to resurrect his campaign and Rule 40 is changed.

In Louisiana, his delegates are released automatically.

In Wyoming, it's unclear, but the Wyoming GOP Chair has said his 1 delegate would be released if he "isn't in the race by July."

Reallocated Automatically

In Alaska, if he is considered to have "dropped out," his delegates are reapportioned, 3 for Cruz to 2 for Trump.  What "dropped out" means is unclear, but the standard is probably "maintaining an active campaign," which he would not be doing if he suspended it.  Note that this would give Cruz a majority in Alaska, and thus another Rule 40 state.

Released If He "Withdraws"

In Georgia, his delegates become unpledged if he withdraws; suspending his campaign is presumably not enough to trigger that.

In Tennessee, they are released if he "withdraws."

In Hawaii, his 1 delegate is released if he candidate has "withdrawn."

In D.C., they are released if he "withdraws."

May Release Them

In Alabama, he has the option to release his 1 delegate.

In Arkansas, he may release his 9 delegates.

In Massachusetts, he may release his 8 delegates.

In Minnesota, he may release his At-Large delegates; it's unclear about his district delegates.

In Texas, he may release his 3 delegates.

In Kansas, he may release his 6 delegates.

In Kentucky, he may release his 7 delegates.

Unclear

In Virginia, they appear to be still bound to him, regardless.  FHQ thinks (from similar discussions re: Carson's delegates there) that they likely would be released.

In Puerto Rico, it's unclear.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Thank you for that delegate re-allocation.  I had been wondering what would or will happen when Rubio suspends.

[Beet]

Louisiana Dem should be 37-14 Clinton, not 38-13.

[Erc]

Louisiana Dem should be 37-14 Clinton, not 38-13.

Thanks for the catch!

[jimrtex]

Texas: The issue here is CD 33.  The AP count has Rubio winning a majority here (and thus all 3 delegates), while the TX SoS results would indicate Cruz winning 2 to Trump's 1.  CNN, FHQ, The Green Papers and I all side with the SoS here; the AP apparently realizes something is up with their count and hasn't called those three delegates yet.  Honestly, this looks like an AP data entry error: compare AP and SoS returns.

On election night, Rubio had been credited with 12,085 votes from the Tarrant County portion of TX-33, which pushed Rubio over 50% in the district. I looked at the results, and saw that the early voting and election day counts were way out of whack, and that there were lots more votes cast in the presidential preference primary compared to the congressional nomination race (you aren't going to have a 50%+ undervote in a contested race).

Fortunately, Tarrant County had precinct results, and I was able to figure out the precincts in the congressional district, and calculate the presidential results, which showed that Rubio had received 1285 votes. I pointed this out to the Republican Party of Tarrant County, who forwarded it to the elections administrator for Tarrant County, who acknowledged the mistake, and also corrected the results reported to the SOS.

The AP may have got their number from the SOS and not checked for updates, or got them from Tarrant County on election night. I got confirmation of the correction early on Thursday morning.

[Erc]

Texas: The issue here is CD 33.  The AP count has Rubio winning a majority here (and thus all 3 delegates), while the TX SoS results would indicate Cruz winning 2 to Trump's 1.  CNN, FHQ, The Green Papers and I all side with the SoS here; the AP apparently realizes something is up with their count and hasn't called those three delegates yet.  Honestly, this looks like an AP data entry error: compare AP and SoS returns.

On election night, Rubio had been credited with 12,085 votes from the Tarrant County portion of TX-33, which pushed Rubio over 50% in the district. I looked at the results, and saw that the early voting and election day counts were way out of whack, and that there were lots more votes cast in the presidential preference primary compared to the congressional nomination race (you aren't going to have a 50%+ undervote in a contested race).

Fortunately, Tarrant County had precinct results, and I was able to figure out the precincts in the congressional district, and calculate the presidential results, which showed that Rubio had received 1285 votes. I pointed this out to the Republican Party of Tarrant County, who forwarded it to the elections administrator for Tarrant County, who acknowledged the mistake, and also corrected the results reported to the SOS.

The AP may have got their number from the SOS and not checked for updates, or got them from Tarrant County on election night. I got confirmation of the correction early on Thursday morning.

Yeah, the congressional race vote was what tipped me off this was likely a typo.  Thanks for making sure of it, and for making sure democracy works!

[Erc]

March 22 Democratic Primaries

On the fourth Tuesday in March (March 22), the DNC "regional cluster" rules come into effect.  These give sets of three or more neighboring states a 15% delegate bonus, to encourage such regional primaries without frontloading the calendar.  Arizona, Utah, and Idaho qualify as such a cluster, and get the delegate bonus.

Arizona (D)

Overview
85 Delegates (1.78% of total)
Closed Primary
50 District
16 At-Large
9 PLEO At-Large
10 Superdelegates

Details

16 At-Large and 9 PLEO At-Large delegates are awarded based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 8 for CD 2; 6 for CDs 1,6,9; 5 for CDs 3,5,7,8; 4 for CD 4.

Superdelegates

Clinton (5): Rep. Ruben Gallego, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, Kate Gallego, Carolyn Warner, Luis Heredia

Sanders (2): Rep. Raúl Grijalva, Danica Oparnica

Uncommitted (3): Rep. Krysten Sinema, Chair Alexis Tameron, Vice Chair Bill Roe

Useful Links
The Green Papers: AZ
AZ Delegate Selection Plan

Idaho (D)

Overview
27 Delegates (0.57% of total)
Open Caucus
5 At-Large
3 PLEO At-Large
15 by CD
4 Superdelegates

Details

Caucuses are held in each county, with the usual 15% threshold and re-caucusing procedure.  The county caucuses elect delegates to the State Convention based on Presidential Preference.  The State Convention (June 18) elects the 5 At-Large and the 3 PLEO At-Large delegates based on the preferences of convention attendees.

The CD delegates, however, are bound based on the results at the county caucuses themselves: 8 in CD 1 and 7 in CD 2.  Ada County, which is split between CDs, will either have two caucuses or will appropriately split themselves at their own caucus.

Superdelegates

Clinton (1): Carolyn Boyce

Sanders (2): Pete Gertonson, Chair Bert Marley

Uncommitted (1): Vice Chair Van Beechler

Useful Links
The Green Papers: ID-D
ID Delegate Selection Plan

Utah (D)

Overview
37 Delegates (0.78% of total)
Open Caucus
7 At-Large
4 PLEO At-Large
22 by CD
4 Superdelegates

Details

7 At-Large and 4 PLEO At-Large delegates are allocated on the basis of the statewide caucus vote.  The CD delegates are allocated based on the caucus vote in each CD: 5 in CDs 1,3; 6 in CDs 2,4.

Superdelegates

Clinton (2): Vice Chair Breanne Miller, Patrice Arent

Sanders (2): Chair Peter Corroon, Wayne Holland

Useful Links
The Green Papers: UT-D
UT Delegate Selection Plan (DRAFT)

[Erc]

March 8 Preliminary Results

Michigan: Trump 25 - Kasich 17 - Cruz 17
Mississippi: Trump 25 - Cruz 15

Trump just barely below the 50% WTA threshold in MS CDs 3 and 4.

In other news, TN GOP has certified Trump won CD 9, with Cruz in 2nd, confirming the count we had.

[Ebsy]

So TRUMP has another state where he has over 50% of delegates?

[Erc]

So TRUMP has another state where he has over 50% of delegates?

Yep, this is his 6th Rule 40 state out of the 8 he would need to have his name placed into nomination.

In Idaho, Cruz wins a majority of delegates and gets his 4th Rule 40 state.

Idaho: Cruz 20 - Trump 12

Nominating Committee has some leeway in the rounding rules here, it could be Cruz 19 - Trump 13.

[Erc]

Hawaii results appear to be:

Trump 10 - Cruz 7 - Rubio 2

Kasich is denied delegates due to Hawaii's rounding rules.  This Trump's 7th Rule 40 state; he will presumably win the last needed state on the 15th.

Rubio wins a grand total of 2 delegates on the night.