The Delegate Fight: 2016

[Erc]

Northern Marianas (R): March 15

Overview
9 Delegates (0.36% of total)
Closed Caucus
9 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

The caucus first has a presidential preference poll; the winner of the poll receives all 9 delegates.  The caucus then elects 6 of the 9 delegates (the other 3 being the automatic RNC member delegates).

Results (3/15):

Trump won all 9 delegates.  This gives him his 8th Rule 40 state, and he is now eligible to have his name placed in for nomination at the National Convention.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot.  If the candidate withdraws before the convention, the delegation meets as a group to decide whom to support on the first ballot.  It is unclear whether such a provision is in conflict with any anti-unit-rule provisions of the RNC rules.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MP-R
FHQ: MP
CMNI Caucus Rules

[Erc]

Ohio (R): March 15

Overview
66 Delegates (2.67% of total)
Half-Open Primary
66 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary receives all 66 delegates.

Delegate Selection

Candidates pre-approve a slate of delegates; the winner has his slate sent to the National Convention.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

In the absence of any contrary information, we must assume Ohio's delegates are bound indefinitely.  FHQ claims this is still being determined by the OH GOP and the OH SoS.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: OH-R
FHQ: OH

[emailking]

The first post says the total number of Nevada delegates is 50 but I think it's 30?

[Erc]

American Samoa (R): March 22

Overview
9 Delegates (0.36% of total)
Open Caucus
6 At-Large (directly elected, unbound)
3 RNC members (unbound)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

"The delegates from American Samoa are chosen in such a way so that they best reflect the presidential preference of the Caucus/Convention participants."  This doesn't really mean anything in practice; note that there is no presidential preference poll, to my knowledge, so the delegates are not required to be bound by RNC rules.

The delegates "may be instructed by resolution of the body which elected them as to the disposition of their vote on any business before the National Convention." This presumably includes their vote for a nominee; whether such instruction is binding is unclear.

The American Samoa GOP has clarified on Facebook that the delegation will be unpledged (thanks to cinyc for the tip).

RNC Members (unbound)

Utu Abe Malae
Amata Radewagen
Su'a Schuster

Delegates

All are officially unbound, though some have endorsed.

John Raynar - Trump
Taulapapa William Sword
Charles Warren - Cruz
Tina Ioane
Ann Longnecker
Joan Galea'i Holland

Useful Links
The Green Papers: AS-R

[Erc]

Arizona (R): March 22

Overview
58 Delegates (2.35% of total)
Closed Primary
58 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary receives all 58 delegates.

Results

Trump won the primary and all 58 delegates.

Delegate Selection

The State Convention on April 30 chooses the delegates.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Candidates are bound for the first ballot, unless the candidate withdraws or releases them.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: AZ-R
Arizona Revised Statutes
FHQ: AZ

[Erc]

Utah (R): March 22

Overview
40 Delegates (1.62% of total)
Half-Open Caucus
40 At-Large (Proportional, 15% threshold; 0% threshold if 2 or fewer clear it; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate receives a majority of the vote, they receive all 40 delegates.  Otherwise, if 3 or more candidates clear a 15% threshold, candidates receive a share of delegates proportional to their vote share among all candidates meeting a 15% threshold.  Otherwise, candidates receive a share of delegates proportional to their vote share.  In both cases, delegates are given out, starting with the winner, with all fractional delegates rounded up, until all delegates are allocated.

Results

Cruz won a majority and all 40 delegates.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention on April 23.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot.  If a candidate is not a candidate before the National Convention, their delegates will be re-allocated proportionally.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: UT-R
FHQ: UT
UT GOP Bylaws

[Erc]

Wisconsin (R): April 5

Overview
42 Delegates (1.70% of total)
Open Primary
18 At-Large (WTA)
24 District (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The statewide winner receives 24 delegates.  The winner in each of Wisconsin's 8 CDs receives 3 delegates.

Delegate Selection

Before the primary, the District Executive Committee draws up a list of 20 delegate candidates.  After the primary presents this list to the winner of the district after the primary; that candidate recommends three from that list.  The District Executive Committed then chooses three delegates from that list, "giving due consideration" to the candidate's preference.

The winning candidate (Cruz), along with the State Executive Committee, chooses his At-Large delegates.  Cruz has final approval over the list of their delegates.

Results

Trump won CDs 3 and 7, picking up 6 delegates.  Cruz won the remaining 36 delegates.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound until released or until their candidate receives less than one-third of the votes on a ballot at the National Convention.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: WI-R
WI GOP Constitution
FHQ: WI

[Erc]

The first post says the total number of Nevada delegates is 50 but I think it's 30?

Fixed.  Thanks!

The state-by-state summaries are now complete until mid-April (next up would be New York's April 19 primary).  Considering the state of the race will presumably be quite different by then, I'm going to hold off on the remainder for a while, unless there's a high demand for them.

[Erc]

A Really Terrible Super Tuesday Forecast

Let's say, that in every CD voting on Super Tuesday, the result is

Trump	34.3%
Rubio	26.8%
Cruz	24.1%
Kasich	10.1%
Carson	4.7%

And let's say that in Texas we flip Trump and Cruz.  You may, of course, take issue with these numbers.  More importantly, the issue is uniformity; Cruz being in third *everywhere* costs him a lot of CD delegates (and similarly for Trump in Texas).

The corresponding delegate results would be (up to some uncertainty about OK's rules):

State	Trump	Rubio	Cruz
Alabama	26	16	8
Alaska	11	9	8
Arkansas	19	13	8
Georgia	45	23	8
Massachusetts	15	12	11
Minnesota	13	12	12
Oklahoma	16	14	13
Tennessee	31	19	8
Texas	13	51	91
Vermont	6	5	5
Virginia	17	13	12
Total	212	187	184

In addition, Kasich picks up 10 delegates (5 VA, 4 MA, 1 MN), and Carson picks up 2 in VA.

We see the importance here of Texas, which could be a huge haul for Cruz.  The fight for second in Texas' CDs is also quite important.

[Gass3268]

Based on polling in Texas, I think it would make sense to go 1. Cruz 2. Trump 3. Rubio there. This means Super Tuesday results would be:

Trump 250
Cruz 184
Rubio 149

Super Tuesday could be a very embarrassing delegate night for Rubio if he doesn't win a state like Alabama, Georgia, or Tennessee.

[Erc]

As another example, running the numbers with 538's polls-plus forecast (in the states where it's available) and splitting 2nd place in TX CDs evenly gives:

Trump 241
Rubio 173
Cruz 166
Kasich 11
Carson 4

Cruz misses viability (20%) in a number of southern states.

[socaldem]

I'm currently working on a Green Papers-based prediction for Super Tuesday.

In reviewing the delegate allocation rules for Minnesota, it seems highly likely that the state will have a nearly 3-way split of delegates...

Green Papers:

"24 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the caucus results in each congressional district. A mandatory 10% threshold (if no candidate receives 10%, the threshold is 0%) is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the congressional district level."

"For each candidate who has reached the threshold, starting with the candidate who received the highest number of votes, multiply 3 (delegates per CD) or 14 (delegates statewide) by the number of votes received by that candidate and divide by the total number of votes cast for all presidential candidates who also reached the threshold and round to the nearest whole number."

So if I'm reading this correctly, each candidate will likely start with an 8-8-8 split in congressional district delegates, unless some of the congressional districts are complete blow-outs. I would think that Cruz might be shut out of the Minneapolis district but that otherwise the candidates would have relatively even strength. So, we're likely looking at 8-8-8 or 8-9-7 (T-R-C).

Statewide, with only 14 delegates to allocate, my prediction is 5-4-5 (T-R-C), with Trump edging out Cruz for a win but all three major candidates clustered in high 20s to low 30s.

So that would result in a final delegate allocation of 13-13-12 (T-R-C).

[Mr. Morden]

Erc, what is the %age of all Republican delegates who will go into the convention unbound?  According to Upshot here:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/27/upshot/republican-delegate-calculator-how-trump-can-win.html

it's 7%.  Does that sound right to you?  I assume that that consists of the delegates from states that don't hold preference votes like CO/ND/WY, plus the 3 party leaders from each state?  What about the delegates in states that directly elect their delegates, like Illinois?  Are they bound by the presidential preference they list on the ballot?

[Swedge]

Fair play to Trump

[RI]

So, I'm confused about the Wyoming GOP caucus. Green Papers indicates that there is in fact a straw poll associated with the caucus, and this page has results for a straw poll of some sort. Seven counties are meeting today, so if they are holding a straw poll, it should be updated today.

[Erc]

Erc, what is the %age of all Republican delegates who will go into the convention unbound?  According to Upshot here:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/27/upshot/republican-delegate-calculator-how-trump-can-win.html

it's 7%.  Does that sound right to you?  I assume that that consists of the delegates from states that don't hold preference votes like CO/ND/WY, plus the 3 party leaders from each state?  What about the delegates in states that directly elect their delegates, like Illinois?  Are they bound by the presidential preference they list on the ballot?

Going through this state by state:

• Colorado:  Potentially all 37 delegates could be unbound, though delegate candidates may announce a pledge to a particular candidate, in which case they are bound for the first ballot.  Presumably the 3 RNC members will be unbound.
• North Dakota: All 28 delegates will be unbound.
• Wyoming: Presumably, all 29 delegates will be unbound, though FHQ thinks otherwise, and if they are holding a straw poll as realisticidealist suggests, that will change.
• Louisiana: There's going to be a substantial number (on the order of 6) delegates that are unbound here, due to Louisiana's sneaky rules.
• Virgin Islands: the 3 RNC members are unbound; due to incomplete delegate slates, it's also likely that 3 or more Uncommitted delegates may be elected, as well.
• Guam: All 9 delegates will be unbound.
• American Samoa: Presumably, all 9 delegates will be unbound.
• Illinois: All 54 CD delegates are officially unbound; a preference is listed on the ballot but is not binding.
• Pennsylvania: All 54 CD delegates, being directly elected, are officially unbound; no preference is listed on the ballot.
• West Virginia: Also directly elects its delegates, but their commitments are apparently binding.

That's around 8-10%, depending on what happens in Colorado.

[Erc]

So, I'm confused about the Wyoming GOP caucus. Green Papers indicates that there is in fact a straw poll associated with the caucus, and this page has results for a straw poll of some sort. Seven counties are meeting today, so if they are holding a straw poll, it should be updated today.

Note how Christie has a substantial result in that straw poll, despite dropping out before the first County Caucus (Niobrara, on 2/16).

I believe this was a straw poll more in the manner of the late Ames' straw poll; see a link from December promoting it here on WY GOP's Facebook feed.

If Wyoming does end up reporting some (different) straw poll results from its caucuses, they will have to bind their delegation accordingly.

[Erc]

Major update on the Democratic superdelegates front, taking into account information from the Bloomberg delegate tracker (which presumably gets its information from the AP).

This means Hillary now has the support of over two-thirds of the superdelegates.

[Erc]

SC-D Delegate Targets

Assuming Clinton places between 50 and 75% of the two-way vote in all CDs:

2-1 split is guaranteed in CD 3.
If Clinton breaks 62.5% in CD 4, she wins 3/4 delegates there.
Clinton would have to break 70% in CDs 1,2,5,7 in order to win 4/5 delegates there.
In CD 6, 56.25% gives her 5/8 delegates, 68.75% gives her 6/8 delegates.

At-Large PLEO: 64.3% would give her 5/7 delegates.
At-Large: 59.1% would give her 7/11, 68.2% would give her 8/11.

Regardless, tonight is the night Clinton takes the pledged delegate lead, permanently.

[Erc]

March 5 Democratic Primaries

Kansas (D)

Overview
37 Delegates (0.78% of total)
Closed Caucus (though registration may be changed at the caucus)
7 At-Large
4 PLEO At-Large
22 by CD
4 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 7 and 4 delegates are allocated based on the statewide caucus vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 7 for CD 2; 6 for CD 3; 5 for CD 4; 4 for CD 1.

Superdelegates

Clinton (1): Teresa Garcia Krusor

Uncommitted (3): Chair Lee Kinch, Vice Chair Melody McCray-Miller, Bill Roy Jr.

The Green Papers: KS-D

Louisiana (D)

Overview
59 Delegates (1.24% of total)
Closed Primary
11 At-Large
7 PLEO At-Large
33 by CD
8 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 11 and 7 delegates are allocated based on the statewide caucus vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 8 for CD 2; 6 for CD 5; 5 for CDs 3,4,6; 4 for CD 1.

Superdelegates

Clinton (7): Rep. Cedric Richmond, Chair Karen Carter Peterson, Vice Chair Shane Riddle, Deborah Langhoff, Arthur Morrell, Arlanda Williams, Gov. Jon Bel Edwards

Other (1): Ben Jeffers

The Green Papers: LA-D

Nebraska (D)

Overview
30 Delegates (0.63% of total)
Closed Caucus (you may change registration at the Caucus)
5 At-Large
3 PLEO At-Large
17 by CD
5 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 5 and 3 delegates are allocated based on the statewide caucus vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 6 for CDs 1,2; 5 for CD 3.

The caucus vote is binding, although there is the possibility that rounding errors may affect results in the County (May 19-29) and State (June 18) Conventions.

Superdelegates

Clinton (3): Rep. Brad Ashford, Patricia Zieg, Ronald Kaminski

Uncommitted (2): Chair Vincent Powers, Vice Chair Maureen Monahan

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NE-D
NE Delegate Selection Plan

[dax00]

SC-D Delegate Targets
Regardless, tonight is the night Clinton takes the pledged delegate lead, permanently.

I wouldn't be so hasty to say "permanently". She's obviously expected to do better in the more conservative Southern states, many of which are at stake on Super Tuesday. After that, however, the clear edge goes to Sanders. They're basically tied in the national polls. It's a guessing game as to how discouraged Sanders supporters will be after Tuesday. Hopefully not much.

[Erc]

SC-D Delegate Targets
Regardless, tonight is the night Clinton takes the pledged delegate lead, permanently.

I wouldn't be so hasty to say "permanently". She's obviously expected to do better in the more conservative Southern states, many of which are at stake on Super Tuesday. After that, however, the clear edge goes to Sanders. They're basically tied in the national polls. It's a guessing game as to how discouraged Sanders supporters will be after Tuesday. Hopefully not much.

Sorry, I should refrain from the editorializing in this thread.

[Erc]

New York (R): April 19

Overview
95 Delegates (3.84% of total)
Closed Primary
14 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)
81 District (Winner-Takes-Most; WTA if Majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, they receive all 14 at-large delegates.  Otherwise, the delegates are allocated proportional to each candidate's share of the vote among all candidates meeting a threshold of 20%.  Round all fractions to the nearest number; any rounding errors are resolved by giving delegates to the winner or taking them away from the lowest-placed candidate.

In each of New York's 27 congressional districts, if a candidate receives a majority or is the only candidate to clear 20%, they receive all three delegates.  Otherwise, the winner receives 2 and the runner-up receives 1.

Delegate Selection

11 At-Large delegates are chosen by the state committee on May 18; CD delegates are chosen by each CD's subset of the state committee.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless released.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NY-R
FHQ: NY

[Erc]

Connecticut (R): April 26

Overview
28 Delegates (1.13% of total)
Closed Primary
13 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)
15 District (WTA; WTA statewide if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate receives a majority of the vote, they receive all 28 delegates.  Otherwise, the 13 At-Large delegates are allocated among the candidates proportional to their share of the vote among all candidates meeting a 20% threshold.  Fractions are rounded to the nearest whole number; I believe rounding errors are resolved by awarding delegates to the winner or taking them away from the loser, as appropriate.

If no candidate receives a majority statewide, the winner of each of Connecticut's 5 CDs will receive 3 delegates each.

Delegate Selection

Presidential candidates submit slates of delegates, which are approved by the State Committee.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless released.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: CT-R
CT GOP Bylaws
FHQ: CT

[Erc]

Delaware (R): April 26

Overview
16 Delegates (0.65% of total)
Closed Primary
16 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary receives all 16 delegates.

Delegate Selection

The State Convention (April 29-30) chooses the delegates.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate dies, withdraws, or releases them.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: DE-R
DE GOP Rules
FHQ: DE