ARG-NH: TRUMP surging since December poll!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Didn't we used to have a rule that ARG polls were not counted?

[Pandaguineapig]

The party registration gap is interesting in this:

Primary Voters — Republicans (57%), Undeclared (43%)
Trump 19% 34%
Rubio 14% 14%
Kasich 13% 15%
Christie 13% 7%
Cruz 10% 8%
Bush   12%   3%
Paul 2% 6%
Fiorina 3% 4%
Carson 3% 1%
Huckabee 1% 0%
Santourm 1% 0%
Other 1% 1%
Undecided 8% 7%

These figures really ask the question whether Trump's undeclared and nonpartisan supporters will actually show up to indeed vote for him, and I would answer that by a mild negative.

I've been saying for a while that Trump will underperforming by at least 5% I will beat my words if I'm wrong but it looks like Trump is relying on a poor ground game to get the people who are the least involved to show up

[Phony Moderate]

The party registration gap is interesting in this:

Primary Voters — Republicans (57%), Undeclared (43%)
Trump 19% 34%
Rubio 14% 14%
Kasich 13% 15%
Christie 13% 7%
Cruz 10% 8%
Bush   12%   3%
Paul 2% 6%
Fiorina 3% 4%
Carson 3% 1%
Huckabee 1% 0%
Santourm 1% 0%
Other 1% 1%
Undecided 8% 7%

These figures really ask the question whether Trump's undeclared and nonpartisan supporters will actually show up to indeed vote for him, and I would answer that by a mild negative.

I've been saying for a while that Trump will underperforming by at least 5%

Indeed, the polls are showing him lower than he should be/is.

[Pandaguineapig]

The party registration gap is interesting in this:

Primary Voters — Republicans (57%), Undeclared (43%)
Trump 19% 34%
Rubio 14% 14%
Kasich 13% 15%
Christie 13% 7%
Cruz 10% 8%
Bush   12%   3%
Paul 2% 6%
Fiorina 3% 4%
Carson 3% 1%
Huckabee 1% 0%
Santourm 1% 0%
Other 1% 1%
Undecided 8% 7%

These figures really ask the question whether Trump's undeclared and nonpartisan supporters will actually show up to indeed vote for him, and I would answer that by a mild negative.

I've been saying for a while that Trump will underperforming by at least 5%

Indeed, the polls are showing him lower than he should be/is.

No, Trump will not get any higher than 28 on primary night

[Mr. Morden]

Didn't we used to have a rule that ARG polls were not counted?

We all basically ignored them because they were terrible, but they still got included in the database.  There was debate about that however:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=70670.0

[Kingpoleon]

Kasich up three since December? Impossible!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Thank you! Mr. TRUMP prefers that his name be written in all caps, to properly convey the energy and strength with which he says it.

To me ALL CAPS conveys trollery, so I agree it's appropriate for TRUMP.