"Swing the election": the 538 Election Tool

[DavidB.]

I thought this was a funny tool. You can play with turnout and vote percentage for both parties for different electorates, and the tool then calculates which party would win the election.

I remain really skeptical of a GOP win in 2016.

[Nyvin]

I thought this was a funny tool. You can play with turnout and vote percentage for both parties for different electorates, and the tool then calculates which party would win the election.

I remain really skeptical of a GOP win in 2016.

I thought it was funny how if you put all five groups at 50%-50%....the Democrats win 285-253

[Sorenroy]

I thought this was a funny tool. You can play with turnout and vote percentage for both parties for different electorates, and the tool then calculates which party would win the election.

I remain really skeptical of a GOP win in 2016.

I thought it was funny how if you put all five groups at 50%-50%....the Democrats win 285-253

Even if you turn the turnout for white college educated (56% R) and college educated (62% R) to 100% turnout you get a 272-266 win for the democrats (popular vote won by 50.4% R, 47.8% D).

[muon2]

If you shift each group 2% towards the Pubs and get about a 49.5 to 48.8% Pub win, then they also carry the EC with 272. To win the EC the Pubs must win the popular vote. A two per cent swing is not unusual for a presidential election.

[Virginiá]

If you shift each group 2% towards the Pubs

A two per cent swing is not unusual for a presidential election.

I agree, however it seems unlikely to me that the current white vote numbers are the new ceiling for Democrats. I'm more inclined to think that their numbers will go back up at least 1% - 2%, based on historical shares since the 70s. Mondale lost the white vote big, but everything eventually rebounded. So with that in mind, if they got their 2% swing but with the Democrats normal average share of the white vote, they mostly end up right back where they were in 2012.

So if 2012 was just a really good election for Republicans in terms of their share of the white vote, then that is not good for them going into 2016. As for non-white voters, I can see that swing.

[This account no longer in use.]

Made a few maps using this tool and recent polling:

Clinton vs. Trump:

Clinton vs. Cruz:

Clinton vs. Rubio:

[Mike Thick]

When you alternate between 100% R and 100% D with 100% turnout, you get a really weird map.

49.5%, 335 EVs
48.4%, 203 EVs

The general shape of it kind of reminds me of 1976, +/- some states.

[TarHeelDem]

Ha! It's a wonder more Republicans don't support mandatory voting.