TRUMP has a chance to win California with 20~30% possibility(vs Hillary)

[StatesPoll]

Normally, California is considered as an obvious ‘Blue state’. And the image like almost 0% chance for the GOP. But it’s not the true. I’d estimate there is around 20~30% winning possibilities, if TRUMP becomes nominated by GOP. I gonna to explain why. Keep read.

1. Let’s take the look of Demographic in California.
Latinos in the 2012 Election: California

Population numbers of the races in 2016 would be like below.
WHITE 38% HISPANIC 39% ASIAN 15% BLACK 6.5% INDIAN 1.5%

1) Eligible Voters in California, by Race, 2010
Reference: Latinos in the 2012 Election: California

TOTAL 23 Millions Eligible Voters in California.

White 52%(=11.94millions/ 23milions) Hispanic 25.6%(=5.9 million / 23 millions)
Asian 12.2%(=2.82millions / 23millions) Black 7%(=1.6 million / 23 millions)
Native American 2% Else(mixed,etc) 1%

2) Thinking about actual voting rates it was something likes that in 2012
WHITE 58% Hispanic 21% Asian 10% Black 8%(was higher than usual with Black candidate obama effect) Native American 2% Else 1%

During 4 years, May be Hisapanics gained more numbers. But I’d predict Voting Rate of White going to be rise in 2016 with Terrorism& Immigration Issue. So I guess if TRUMP becomes nomniated of GOP race.Actual White influences it could be even more than 2012, for almost sure.

3) I guess at 2012, many white voters didn’t go to the vote with below reasons,
1) Romney was a mormon
2) Romney wasn’t very conservative candidate. kind of moderate. (Which was not very attractive for conservatives)
3) Conservative people gave up to vote with saying “oh… here is an obvious blue state. It’s useless to vote”

In my opinion, Only TRUMP is available to make this mircale of the GOP candidates.He can attract people. Look his last rallies, It’s like rock star’s concert. Always alot of people chasing him with enthusiasm. (several thousands~12k+ PPL)
Other candidates of GOP which are makes just few hundreds attendants per rally, I don’t think they can raise White turn out much.

Anyway it would be Something Like(suppose TRUMP vs Hillary match),
White 60.5% Hispanic 21% Asian 10% Black 7% Native American 1.5%

2. So let’s put GOP’s average racial number %(end of 2015) of Whole US to california.(White 60%, Hispanic 30% Asian 50% Black 10% Native American 0.5%)

White(California) 60.5% x 60% = 36.3%
Hispanic(California) 21% x 30% = 6.3%
Asian(California) 10% x 50% = 5 %
Black(California) 7% x 10% = 0.7%
Native American(California) 1.5% x 50% = 1.25%

Total 49.55%. Which able to win number in Cali.
GOP needs 48.7%+ to Win.(Because in 2012 3rd candidates gathed 2.4%)

well little bit good news for GOP is, Asian voter’s tendacy is changed a lot compare to 2012.
In 2012, Romney made 23% of Asian, when Obama made 76%.
But, In 2014 mid term election, Asian voted for GOP 48%. and nowadays on the general election poll, it makes 5:5 when vs Hillary. So it’s little bit fightable for GOP in California.

3. For the TRUMP, to win California, There should be satisfying with two conditions
1. GOP needs 60% White Supports(similar as romney got 59% from the national whites) with High Turnout of White.
2. 50% Asian Supports.

Then GOP can win the California in 2016.
White(California) 58% x 62.5% = 36.25%
Hispanic(California) 20% x 30% = 6%
Asian(California) 10% x 50% = 5 %
Black(California) 11% x 10% = 1.15%
Native American(California) 1% x 50% = 0.5%

Total 48.9% Which number is able to win the California.

GOP made 53% white support in California(2012). They can raise it +7% more with higher turnout? I think it is quite attainable for TRUMP. he shouldn’t be give up.

Well, Donald TRUMP. if he becomes nominated.In my opinion for TRUMP, he should not abandon California with saying ‘bah~ it is blue state’.Because it would be worth to make some effort on California, something like make 1-2 weeks rally.

Look, it is low risk / Jack pot High returns gamble. If he capture california (which is 55 electoral votes) He can win 2016 election with 99.9% odds. even he lose california there is nothing much to lose.

[Holmes]

ya

[Skye]

[Likely Voter]

Making your entire post in bold does not make it bolder

[Ebsy]

Jesus.

[The Free North]

You're forgetting about the possibility that the San Andreas fault dumps the coast into the Pacific Ocean sometime between now and next fall.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I never expected to quote TNvolunteer but...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You're forgetting about the possibility that the San Andreas fault dumps the coast into the Pacific Ocean sometime between now and next fall.

Most of the bay area is east of that fault, so even that wouldn't do it.

[Blair]

Dick Morris?

[Torie]

What is the posited national percentage vote for Trump in this little arithmetic excursion? CA probably has a lower percentage of working class whites of almost any state in the union, and probably one of the higher percentages of more bourgeoisie whites, of anywhere in the US, but I digress. And of those bourgeoisie whites, aside from a very few places, a higher percentage of those bourgeoisie whites, are white gentry liberals, and fewer are red meat conservatives, who prefer to consume it almost raw. And how will all those bourgeoisie whites get their lawns cut, and their kids looked after, and their pools cleaned, if their Hispanic hired help are all deported? Their restaurant bills will go up too.

And then there are the farmers in the Central Valley, whose hired help is ... well you get the drift.

Let me help our thread host here. Perhaps he might like to write this down. The white bourgeoise in CA in general like Hispanics. They don't want them to leave. Rather what they would prefer is that Trump leave, leave the United States, permanently. Thank you.

[Virginiá]

StatesPoll, I like how you conveniently upped the white vote turnout by 2% and left the Hispanic vote share the same, as if Trump's rhetoric will only increase turnout among whites, despite a large part of his support coming from his call to deport 11 million Hispanics and end birthright citizenship.

Also interesting is how you base your Asian vote share on 2014 midterms, despite the fact that all demographics tend to vote differently in midterms. The electorate skews older who have different patterns entirely when it comes to local candidates. Local politicians do not have to run on the same platform as a presidential candidate and are less polarizing this way. So no, Trump's Asian vote share will not be 50%. Sorry. Once again, you have no idea how to understand political trends.

And he'll win 60%+ of whites in Cali? You realize that in 2012, in California, only 53%~ of white voters went for Romney, right? And so now Trump is going to gain 7%+ among whites in California, a very liberal state? What, you assume he won't alienate any whites? Please.

You have no idea what you are talking about. Just stop.

[Torie]

StatesPoll, I like how you conveniently upped the white vote turnout by 2% and left the Hispanic vote share the same, as if Trump's rhetoric will only increase turnout among whites, despite a large part of his support coming from his call to deport 11 million Hispanics and end birthright citizenship.

Also interesting is how you base your Asian vote share on 2014 midterms, despite the fact that all demographics tend to vote differently in midterms. The electorate skews older who have different patterns entirely when it comes to local candidates. Local politicians do not have to run on the same platform as a presidential candidate and are less polarizing this way. So no, Trump's Asian vote share will not be 50%. Sorry. Once again, you have no idea how to understand political trends.

And he'll win 60% of whites in Cali? You realize that in 2012, in California, only 53%~ of white voters went for Romney, right? You realize that his white vote share was not the same in every state, right? You realize that his massive gains among white voters in the South pumped up his national average of the white electorate, right? And so now Trump is going to gain 7% among whites in California, a very liberal state? What, you assume he won't alienate any whites? Please.

You have no idea what you are talking about. Just stop.

Actually Romney's biggest gains tended to be among white bourgeoisie types in upscale suburbs in the North. You know folks like me, who voted for Obama in 2008 and Mittens in 2012 - precisely the type of voters who will never, ever, vote for Trump. And in those years I lived in Orange County, CA. My burb trended about 5 points to Mittens, or something like that, vis a vis McCain, meaning the swing was about 7 points.

[Virginiá]

Actually Romney's biggest gains tended to be among white bourgeoisie types in upscale suburbs in the North. You know folks like me, who voted for Obama in 2008 and Mittens in 2012 - precisely the type of voters who will never, ever, vote for Trump. And in those years I lived in Orange County, CA. My burb trended about 5 points to Mittens, or something like that, vis a vis McCain, meaning the swing was about 7 points.

I can't speak for Romney's gains on a regional basis for specific groups of whites, but in California there is no way Trump is going to score out of the park among whites like Mr StatesPoll said.

This guy has the most biased outlook I've seen. He just randomly pumps up Trump's numbers to ridiculous levels because he thinks him getting crowds translates to unrealistic gains everywhere while not alienating any white people at all. Trump is never going to get close to 60% among whites in a general election. Not with the white no-college share of the electorate dropping heavily every 4 years.

[Torie]

Actually Romney's biggest gains tended to be among white bourgeoisie types in upscale suburbs in the North. You know folks like me, who voted for Obama in 2008 and Mittens in 2012 - precisely the type of voters who will never, ever, vote for Trump. And in those years I lived in Orange County, CA. My burb trended about 5 points to Mittens, or something like that, vis a vis McCain, meaning the swing was about 7 points.

I can't speak for Romney's gains on a regional basis for specific groups of whites, but in California there is no way Trump is going to score out of the park among whites like Mr StatesPoll said.

This guy has the most biased outlook I've seen. He just randomly pumps up Trump's numbers to ridiculous levels because he thinks him getting crowds translates to unrealistic gains everywhere while not alienating any white people at all. Trump is never going to get close to 60% among whites in a general election. Not with the white no-college share of the electorate dropping heavily every 4 years.

Yes, a Trump on the ballot will cause a trend in CA versus the nation, and that trend will not be favorable to Trump. Trump's base of support is anemic in CA. Those kind of folks have left the state in droves in the last 25 years.

[ProudModerate2]

Why are we all posting in this ridiculous thread ?
I feel foolish.
These Trump yes-men will say anything to get attention ("the apples don't fall far from the Tree").

[Ljube]

California is, probably, one of the worst Trump states, in terms of white vote.

[Torie]

Why are we all posting in this ridiculous thread ?
I feel foolish.
These Trump yes-men will say anything to get attention ("the apples don't fall far from the Tree").

Because it was just such a fascinating case of statistical GIGO. This thread should be linked in the dictionary next to that term.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Joke of the year goes to....

[Broken System]

Statespoll, I believe the section you are looking for is "Election What-ifs?," a place where your wild imagination can flourish.

[Ebsy]

I don't see why we are allowing this guy to advertise his site in his username.

[RI]

On the extremely slight chance Trump wins a ridiculous upset in a hardcore Dem state, California is nowhere near the most likely. Probably MA, CT, or NJ would top that list.

[Trapsy]

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Meanwhile, in reality land:

CA:

Clinton 57.9
Trump 36
Webb 4.1
Others 2

[Adam Griffin]

StatesPoll, I like how you conveniently upped the white vote turnout by 2% and left the Hispanic vote share the same, as if Trump's rhetoric will only increase turnout among whites, despite a large part of his support coming from his call to deport 11 million Hispanics and end birthright citizenship.

Also interesting is how you base your Asian vote share on 2014 midterms, despite the fact that all demographics tend to vote differently in midterms. The electorate skews older who have different patterns entirely when it comes to local candidates. Local politicians do not have to run on the same platform as a presidential candidate and are less polarizing this way. So no, Trump's Asian vote share will not be 50%. Sorry. Once again, you have no idea how to understand political trends.

And he'll win 60%+ of whites in Cali? You realize that in 2012, in California, only 53%~ of white voters went for Romney, right? And so now Trump is going to gain 7%+ among whites in California, a very liberal state? What, you assume he won't alienate any whites? Please.

You have no idea what you are talking about. Just stop.

Weirdly enough, my 2012 Obama white vote by county election project actually pegged Obama's share of the vote at around 49% in CA, and the formulas used - while adjusted for individual states and in particular, states with large populations of Latinos - tended to under-estimate white Obama support by my observations. Of course, both exit polls and my project have margins of error that in this case would partially overlap with one another.

But yeah, Trump ain't winning California. At best, the GOP candidate loses by 15 points or so, and the best-case scenario ain't one with Trump.

[andrew_c]

White Democrats have a high floor in California.  Trump won't be able to get those votes.