Chilean Parliamentary Election -1973

[Lumine]

Jorge Alessandri, Second Term (I)

Despite his misgivings at being President again, Jorge Alessandri threw itself to work as hard as possible to ensure the mistakes of his first term and the polarization that had occurred under the Christian Democrats was corrected. Alas, Alessandri began his term with nothing but 7 Senators (out of 50) and 38 Deputies (out of 150), meaning not even presidential vetos could be sustained. It was a hard task, and after two and a half years of Government a new parliamentary election has to take place, crucial for both Opposition and Government.

Alessandri's greatest headache has come on the economic front, as a team of economists led by Pablo Barahona took over the Finance and Economy Ministers to enact the liberalization reforms promoted from PN. Often critized from within the more interventionist/protectionist sectors of PN and loathed by the left and much of he center, the reforms have been unable to roll back on much of Frei's regulations, and despite the continued protection and promotion of private enterprise the Chilean economy has growth levels that are mediocre at best, while inflation grows with no end in sight. Forced to restore international confidence on investment, Alessandri has suspended attempts at copper nationalization, taking a popularity hit.

Domestically, however, Alessandri has found much needed success in securing internal stability. Seconded by apolitical Army Chief Rene Schneider, and backed in Congress by the Radicals and Christian Democrats when it comes to sustaining Presidential's states of emergency, Alessandri has cracked down on extremist movements from the left and from the right alike, curtailing violence in the cities and across the fields despite his inability to get legislation on land reform passed. This, however, has made Alessandri a target by the militant left and the extremist right, which has arisen on a nationalist movement rejecting Alessandri's economic liberalism. Likewise Foreign policy has been mostly stable, the Government managing to inspire confidence on its economic proposals to promote some degree of investment and closer economic ties in both Europe and with the US.

In Congress, the President has often been undermined by his lack of support, very occasionally gaining lukewarm support from PDC and PR with very key legislation, meaning Alessandri's projected Constitutional Reform is still stalled. Independent figures saw major protagonism in Alessandri's first year, until a scandal involving Agriculture Minister Jorge Prat's handling of the agrarian reform caused a crisis with the nationalist groups and forced ministerial resignations, throwing Alessandri into the arms of the National Party and the smaller Radical Democracy and the new ally PADENA, forming the Alianza Civica (Civic Alliance) to contest the elections. Still personally popular due to his own austerity and lack of scandals, Alessandri's political base is more than uneasy after his rejection of an "Alessandrist movement" to be formed.

All in all, Alessandri has suceeded in restoring some much needed order to the nation despite a lack of political support, but his policy initiatives remain stalled, and the economy is slugglish and weak. Due to that, the President has been forced to depend on the National Party rather than his much boasted independent government, forced to use domestic stability and increased foreign confidence as his battleships in the political battle to emerge, as opposed to economic misgivings.

[Lumine]

Parties and Leaders:

Unidad Popular:

Socialist Party (PS): Increasingly radical after Allende’s loss and determined to move away from his democratic way to Socialism, PS is now led by Senator Carlos Altamirano, who has pledged to make the Socialist Party a revolutionary vanguard, committed to marxist-leninism and to revolutionary violence if necessary (OTL). PS is highly critical of social-democrats and PR’s occasional aid to Alessandri on law and order, branding itself as the best bet to bring the center-right Government to its knees.

Communist Party (PC): Ironically more pragmatic than PS under the leadership of Luis Corvalan, PC argues that socialism has to be implemented without violence, seeking party alliances when necessary. The more conciliatory approach aside, PC has made a large part of its campaign on strengthening labour unions to resist economic liberalization, stressing the workers’ movement to be crucial to both win and retain a government.

MAPU/IC: MAPU and the Christian Left (IC) used to be much of the left of the Christian Democrats, and left the PDC in 1969 and 1970 in order to join Unidad Popular. Both are strong followers of liberation theology, aiming to be Christian and humanist revolutionary movements to bring socialism to Chile. Nominally led by Rafael Gumucio and Luis Maira, the main difference between both, as of now, is that MAPU embraces Marxism Leninism, whereas IC renounces it.

SD/USOPO: USOPO (Popular Socialist Union) and SD (Social Democratic Party) represent the social-democrat wing of Unidad Popular, believing in democratic socialism and often being critical of the Socialist Party’s radical stance. Led by moderate Senators Fernando Luengo and Raul Ampuero, a string of past bad results has left them heavily damaged, meaning a bad result could end up in their dissolution.

Radical Party (PR): The largest party of Chile once, the Radicals are deeply divided now, a whole wing of their party currently supporting Alessandri and aiming to replace them. Led by moderate leftist Anselmo Sule, Radicals strongly reject foreign influences and fully back the democratic way of the communists, and for this election they aim to continue to represent the vote of the middle class interests of the center and left (despite a growing faction calling for PR to declare itself Marxist).

API: API, or Independent Popular Action, is a left-wing populist party led by Senator Rafael Tarud, a moderate supporter of Allende. Stressing the need for what they call “left-wing nationalism”, API runs on a platform of deepening the land reform and building up the armed forces as a potential bulwark to support a Unidad Popular government.

Alianza Civica:

National Party (PN): The main party supporting the Government and the sole mainstream party of the center-right, PN is a curious mixture of liberals, conservatives and nationalists, united in their belief of a strong presidential system, law and order, the protection of capitalism (although there is a neoliberal and an interventionist wing), constitutional reform and the creation of the Social and Economic Council to take economic powers away from the Government. Led by influential conservative Sergio Onofre Jarpa, PN is casting itself as the law and order (and anti-marxist) party to support Alessandri’s government.

Radical Democracy (DR)/PADENA: DR and PADENA are the smaller Government partners, currently threatened by their low voting shares. DR is the right-wing of the Radical Party, taking up the mantle of social and economic liberalism mixed with anti-communism, led by former presidential candidate Julio Duran. PADENA, a social-liberal and populist party that used to back PDC, has surprisingly joined Alessandri on his promises of an independent government, stressing the need for greater social spending and the rejection of the obstructionist position of the Socialists.

Other:

Christian Democratic Party (PDC): While it used to be Chile’s largest party, the PDC remains shellshocked after the abrupt end of its time in power. Purging Tomic’s wing as swiftly as possible (minus a few respected figures), Senator Patricio Aylwin has taken PDC back to the center, posing as the middle ground alternative to UP and Alessandri (despite backing his law and order proposals at times). Still committed to a third-way brand of politics, PDC is running on the broad platform that social changes need to be deepened not only through spending, but with increased government regulation against the policies now promoted in La Moneda.

Nationalist Movement (MN): The biggest novelty of the election, the Movimiento Nacionalista has been born amongst the far-right elements that reject economic liberalization and believe in the need for a “nationalist revolution” to fight Marxist-Leninism and Socialism. Led by former General Roberto Viaux (who almost led a military coup against Frei and PDC), they aim to be the surprise in the election and brand itself as the right’s response to PS.

[Goldwater]

PN, I suppose.

[Intell]

MAPU/IC.

[VPH]

MAPU/IC

[Maxwell]

Communist Party, I guess.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Communist Party, I guess.

[seb_pard]

Communist party

Fun fact: My dad was a MAPU member

[Lumine]

Fascinating results so far! Especially the PDC collapse and the MN/PC/PN surge.

Communist party

Fun fact: My dad was a MAPU member

Seb_pard, I think I might have a hard time explaining the Christian Democratic utter collapse even with Tomic leading the party to disaster in 1970'. Do you have any potential ideas to explain the results if they continue to do as badly?

[PJ]

The Communists. I'd be fine with SD/USOPO if they weren't apparently floundering, API is too nationalist, half of the Radicals are backing Alessandri, I'm not a Christian, so MAPU/IC doesn't appeal to me, and I'm obviously not going to vote for a party apparently okay with violent revolution (the Socialists). Anyone outside of Unidad Popular is out of the question.

[tpfkaw]

Seb_pard, I think I might have a hard time explaining the Christian Democratic utter collapse even with Tomic leading the party to disaster in 1970'. Do you have any potential ideas to explain the results if they continue to do as badly?

Doesn't help with explaining this election, but hiding the results from voters helps prevent tactical voting.

[Lumine]

Seb_pard, I think I might have a hard time explaining the Christian Democratic utter collapse even with Tomic leading the party to disaster in 1970'. Do you have any potential ideas to explain the results if they continue to do as badly?

Doesn't help with explaining this election, but hiding the results from voters helps prevent tactical voting.

I agree, next election will certainly be hidden until it's over.

[Lumine]

Campaign and Results:

It was only three years ago that Eduardo Frei left office, leaving his party the largest political for in Chile. And now...

The history of the 1973 campaign will forever be a subject for debate among politicians and analysts, many still struggling to make sense of some of the most surprising results. A history of triumph for the right and the democratic wing of the left, the history leading to those results was the total, unmitigated, utter collapse of the party that had dominated Chilean politics since 1964, after taking the country by surprise. In retrospect, both PDC and the other parties thought it would be business as usual after the Tomic disaster, dismissing it as fluke. It never occurred to anyone the same thing that had happened to the right before could happen to PDC a few years later, and it was exactly that. Yet a lack of confidence in politics can mean disaster...

First it was the businessmen and funding sources for the party, disgusted with Tomic and strongly receptive to the Barahona reforms despite their lack of progress. Then the left, purged by Aylwin in a move which only crushed internal cohesion. Then the battles with the right led by Juan de Dios Carmona, who was insistent in the need to back up Alessandri against Unidad Popular, and little by little the party found itself with no clear plan and no clear direction. The Nationalist Movement dealt a crucial yet unforeseen blow, by removing a lot of the lukewarm PDC bases in rural areas distrustful of the Frei land reform, and more importantly, because the nationalist elements within PN left the party to join General Viaux. Left behind there was a party far more moderated, and poised to seize not only on PDC dissolution, but on Alessandri's significant yet untested popularity. Among many others, the party lost historical leaders Bernardo Leighton and Renan Fuentealba, Party Chairman Patricio Aylwin and, the biggest humiliation of all, former President Eduardo Frei.

Shockwaves were felt immediately afterwards. Dissolution was imminent for both PADENA and API, their space taken up by their larger partners. MAPU and IC did not had an excellent result per se, but with the Christian Democrats turned into a shell they decided to continue on their current incarnation. Humiliated by the Communists overcoming his party by three-to-one, Carlos Altamirano and his revolutionary faction were ousted from the leadership by late 73', an Allendist group led by Orlando Letelier and Jose Tohá taking over (mockingly referred as "the Junta") by the disappointed far left brigades. USOPO and SD, fresh from vindicating results from the 1969 disappointment, expressed their desire to merge into a social democratic force, to be tested in 1976.

On the winning side, the Movimiento Nacionalista made history by achieving a breakthrough not seen since 1952 and the return of General Ibañez to power. With their mentor Jorge Prat not around to lead them General Viaux's leadership (who never got to plot to kill General Schneider as in OTL) was particularly invigorating, his eloquence leading to the Movimiento scoring major hits through Southern Chile, making Viaux a likely presidential contender and the man holding the balance of parliamentary power. The Communists and Corvalan's approach were finally rewarded, rising to the second largest party and becoming undisputed leaders of Unidad Popular against the Government.

But the most shocking result of all, beyond all expectation, was the National Party. Benefiting the most from the PDC's utter collapse and desertions, the party captured the key middle-class elements it needed to rise to a position of preeminence, and it's share of the vote almost matched PDC's unbelievable rise in 65'. Indeed, while DR and PADENA proved to be weak allies, PN's smooth and well financed campaign, coupled with Alessandri's popularity, almost gave the Government a majority in the Chamber of Deputies and the necessary Senate third to sustain presidential vetoes.

Playing a ludicrously strong hand this time, President Alessandri met with Sergio Onofre Jarpa and the entire PN/DR leadership in La Moneda. The time to change the Constitution was here.

Incoming 1973-1977 Congress:

Senate: (50)
(Half of it renewed, the other half from 1969)

Unidad Popular: 22
9 PC, 5 PR, 4 PS, 2 USOPO/SD, 2 IC/MAPU

Alianza Civica: 16
16 PN

Other: 12
9 PDC, 3 MN

Chamber of Deputies: (150)
(All elected in 1973)

Alianza Civica: 71
68 PN (+34), 3 DR/PADENA (-1)

Unidad Popular: 65
34 PC (+12), 10 PS (-5), 6 PR (-14), MAPU/IC 8 (New), 6 SD/USOPO (+6)

Other: 12
3 PDC (-52), 12 MN (New)