How Does Trump Win the IA Caucus?

[Badger]

An important question given a) if he wins there he'll probably be unstoppable; but b) it appears Cruz has overtaken him and is now the man to beat.

One's answer can address voter demographics/types to appeal to, counties/CDs to hit certain numbers in, types of attacks/campaign tactics, etc. Etc. To put Thhe Donald on top caucus night.

Please , however, leave the trollish "TRUMP is king, all others are lo-energy losers" spiels at the door. That's what we have AAD & Lief for.

[This account no longer in use.]

Cruz falls in the polls just as quickly as he surged; a candidate or two (Carson?) drop out and endorse Trump.

[Torie]

An important question given a) if he wins there he'll probably be unstoppable; but b) it appears Cruz has overtaken him and is now the man to beat.

One's answer can address voter demographics/types to appeal to, counties/CDs to hit certain numbers in, types of attacks/campaign tactics, etc. Etc. To put Thhe Donald on top caucus night.

Please , however, leave the trollish "TRUMP is king, all others are lo-energy losers" spiels at the door. That's what we have AAD & Lief for.

I think you might be inflating the influence of Iowa. It has next to no correlation with NH, and perhaps a negative one, as to influencing what NH does. Sure Cruz needs to win it, to keep going, as other than Trump's VP choice, or maybe to just get the silver medal, but I don't think Trump does. The fact that the turnout is so low in a caucus situation, really "impeaches" the significance of Iowa. If the Iowa Pubs had a brain, they would have a regular primary. That would cause the state to have more of an impact with respect to being first. But then, NH would not tolerate Iowa both being first, and having a regular primary. And so it goes.

Trump needs be stopped in NH. Period. That is what it is all about. The establishment Pubs can stop Cruz. What is uncomfortably not clear, is whether they can stop Trump. If they cannot, Hillary will be POTUS. Period - again.

Your thread is probably on the wrong board. This is an election question, not a poll question. Not that I care, but Morden might.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

An important question given a) if he wins there he'll probably be unstoppable; but b) it appears Cruz has overtaken him and is now the man to beat.

One's answer can address voter demographics/types to appeal to, counties/CDs to hit certain numbers in, types of attacks/campaign tactics, etc. Etc. To put Thhe Donald on top caucus night.

Please , however, leave the trollish "TRUMP is king, all others are lo-energy losers" spiels at the door. That's what we have AAD & Lief for.

I think you might be inflating the influence of Iowa. It has next to no correlation with NH, and perhaps a negative one, as to influencing what NH does. Sure Cruz needs to win it, to keep going, as other than Trump's VP choice, or maybe to just get the silver medal, but I don't think Trump does. The fact that the turnout is so low in a caucus situation, really "impeaches" the significance of Iowa. If the Iowa Pubs had a brain, they would have a regular primary. That would cause the state to have more of an impact with respect to being first. But then, NH would not tolerate Iowa both being first, and having a regular primary. And so it goes.

Trump needs be stopped in NH. Period. That is what it is all about. The establishment Pubs can stop Cruz. What is uncomfortably not clear, is whether they can stop Trump. If they cannot, Hillary will be POTUS. Period - again.

Your thread is probably not the wrong board. This is an election question, not a poll question. Not that I care, but Morden might.

Trump is already at 47% according to CNN. Combine that with the "shy Trump" effect and he probably already has a majority of likely voters in his pocket.

[Why]

One way Trump might win is to get more of his supporters to vote than Cruz.
However it is more than likely Cruz has the greater organisation in Iowa so there would have to be a huge enthusiasm gap for that to happen

Trump could start doing lots of TV ads and gain support

Trump could start attacking Cruz and that could remove support from Cruz

However I doubt whether Trump finishing second to Cruz either closely or way ahead of third is going to have much impact on the race overall.

If he loses to someone else surprisingly or just scraps to second or finishes worse than it could show Trump has problems getting his supporters to vote or the polls overestimated his support.

There is still time for any of the candidates to self-destruct or for something else to come to the fore in the race that exposes a candidates weakness on an issue.

[Badger]

An important question given a) if he wins there he'll probably be unstoppable; but b) it appears Cruz has overtaken him and is now the man to beat.

One's answer can address voter demographics/types to appeal to, counties/CDs to hit certain numbers in, types of attacks/campaign tactics, etc. Etc. To put Thhe Donald on top caucus night.

Please , however, leave the trollish "TRUMP is king, all others are lo-energy losers" spiels at the door. That's what we have AAD & Lief for.

I think you might be inflating the influence of Iowa. It has next to no correlation with NH, and perhaps a negative one, as to influencing what NH does. Sure Cruz needs to win it, to keep going, as other than Trump's VP choice, or maybe to just get the silver medal, but I don't think Trump does. The fact that the turnout is so low in a caucus situation, really "impeaches" the significance of Iowa. If the Iowa Pubs had a brain, they would have a regular primary. That would cause the state to have more of an impact with respect to being first. But then, NH would not tolerate Iowa both being first, and having a regular primary. And so it goes.

Trump needs be stopped in NH. Period. That is what it is all about. The establishment Pubs can stop Cruz. What is uncomfortably not clear, is whether they can stop Trump. If they cannot, Hillary will be POTUS. Period - again.

Your thread is probably on the wrong board. This is an election question, not a poll question. Not that I care, but Morden might.

Check my OP, Torie. I never implied Trump had to win IA. Rather , someone else needs to beat him there for him to have any realistic chance of losing. He is leading consistently and healthily in NH and NV, and leading in SC with Cruz closing in. Cruz needs the momentum of an Iowa win to have any chance of beating him in SC or afterwards. Trump is within striking distance of winning IA though, but hasn't been able to seal the deal with voters there. He had troubles with even Carson there before he crashed and burned .

Good point about the thread location 6though . my error. Mods please move this thread .

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Trump probably won't win IMO. He doesn't have a good GOTV especially in a caucus state like Iowa.

[President Johnson]

Trump's actual support his bigger than in the polls, because several people don't want to admit, that they like him.

[BlueSwan]

I strongly disagree with the notion that Iowa doesn't matter for Trump.

The reason why Iowa hasn't mattered much in recent elections is because Iowa, predictably, have gone for an evangelican christian, who noone thought could challenge the establishment candidate anyway.

But Trump is NOT the establishment candidate. Trumps whole image is that he is a "winner". He constantly talks about his poll numbers and about how he's always winning. Losing in Iowa could put a dent in that image and it will be REALLY interesting to see how he handles a defeat.

The way I see it, a Cruz win in Iowa, really opens the door, not so much for Cruz himself, but for an establishment candidate like Christie or Rubio. For this reason alone, the establishment might as well do whatever they can to get that Cruz win (or rather Trump defeat) in Iowa.

If Trump wins Iowa, it is almost game over. Iowa seems to be just about his weakest state in the entire country.

[President Johnson]

I strongly disagree with the notion that Iowa doesn't matter for Trump.

The reason why Iowa hasn't mattered much in recent elections is because Iowa, predictably, have gone for an evangelican christian, who noone thought could challenge the establishment candidate anyway.

But Trump is NOT the establishment candidate. Trumps whole image is that he is a "winner". He constantly talks about his poll numbers and about how he's always winning. Losing in Iowa could put a dent in that image and it will be REALLY interesting to see how he handles a defeat.

The way I see it, a Cruz win in Iowa, really opens the door, not so much for Cruz himself, but for an establishment candidate like Christie or Rubio. For this reason alone, the establishment might as well do whatever they can to get that Cruz win (or rather Trump defeat) in Iowa.

If Trump wins Iowa, it is almost game over. Iowa seems to be just about his weakest state in the entire country.

Utah is his weakest. But it doesn't matter to Trump to win it.

[Holmes]

Trump probably won't win it, and honestly, he doesn't need to. Coming in second is good enough, but a first place finish would probably seal the deal for his nomination.

Trump has a consistent 30-33% base in Iowa, at least lately, and he needs the evangelicals to not coalesce around a single candidate (like they are with Cruz). Santorum won Iowa in 2012 by racking up large margins in the northwest where all the fundies are. If evangelicals spread out their support, either by a late Carson, Huckabee or Santorum surge, Trump can squeeze through. But that's really out of his control. He doesn't seem too keen on attacking Cruz, probably because he wants him as his VP. I guess the only thing Trump's camp can do is make sure their supporters turn out to caucus.

[StatesPoll]

he need to takes tea party support. since december cruz has slightly more tea party support than trump

[StatesPoll]

Cruz falls in the polls just as quickly as he surged; a candidate or two (Carson?) drop out and endorse Trump.

I think he got damaged alot on 5th debate by rubio(revealed he is not very strict at immigration)

[Badger]

he need to takes tea party support. since december cruz has slightly more tea party support than trump

And how exactly does he do that? so far the only relevant answers seem to be hope for a late Huck or Santorum surge to weaken Cruz, which as noted he has little control over.

I'll offer my own 2 cents: Hit the airways hard and now. Trump's perfect TV awareness talking in his ultra-classy office to an off-screen interviewer, interposed with shots of YUGE enthusiastic rally crowds (minus shots of supporters beating up minority hecklers of course). The goal being to simultaneously convey "presidential" and "outsider".

Otherwise, it sounds like his chance to effectively end the nomination race with a IA win is effectively doomed.

[bedstuy]

I don't think Trump can win a Huckabee 2008 type victory.  He doesn't have the educated Republicans or the Christian right Republicans.  Cruz has NW Iowa and some rural areas on lock already.  Trump needs a coalition that wins a divided field. 

How does that happen?  Terrorist attack bigger than San Bernardino the week before the Iowa caucus?

[TJ in Oregon]

He needs Cruz to collapse and no one to be an especially strong flavor of the month at the time. Absent that, the Iowa caucus simply doesn't play into his wheelhouse. He needs the rest of the field to be split up enough he can win with 35% max.

A lot of people are claiming that Trump's support is underestimated in the polls; I disagree with respect to Iowa in particular. Iowa is a caucus, which means it will be lower turnout and the people there will be bargaining, discussing, and trying to persuade those who can possibly be persuaded. That environment means support from people who are less politically active and those who support a polarizing candidate are less likely to benefit.

[King]

He needs to spend some money on GOTV.

[Torie]

He needs Cruz to collapse and no one to be an especially strong flavor of the month at the time. Absent that, the Iowa caucus simply doesn't play into his wheelhouse. He needs the rest of the field to be split up enough he can win with 35% max.

A lot of people are claiming that Trump's support is underestimated in the polls; I disagree with respect to Iowa in particular. Iowa is a caucus, which means it will be lower turnout and the people there will be bargaining, discussing, and trying to persuade those who can possibly be persuaded. That environment means support from people who are less politically active and those who support a polarizing candidate are less likely to benefit.

You sure this happens in the Pub caucus as opposed to the Dem one? I ask because way back in Free Republic days, I knew a woman who as an Iowa Pub state representative, and she said in Pub caucuses folks just show up to vote and leave. There is no real meeting or discussion at all. It's kind of like a voting both open for a couple or few hours in the evening.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

He needs to spend some money on GOTV.

He has the money, too. Are his advisers this stupid? Surely the campaign manager (an AFP veteran-having worked for AFP, I can attest that they know a little something or two about ground game and organizing)  must know that they need to up the game there.

[Angel of Death]

Think up more outrageous insults to level at Iowans.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

He has to start appealing to evangelicals, peel them away from Cruz and encourage his supporters to come out and caucus for him.

[King]

He needs to spend some money on GOTV.

He has the money, too. Are his advisers this stupid? Surely the campaign manager (an AFP veteran-having worked for AFP, I can attest that they know a little something or two about ground game and organizing)  must know that they need to up the game there.

His Iowa manager worked for Santorum 2012, so surely there is a plan. We'll see more in January.

[Likely Voter]

It will be interesting to see how hard he tries to win IA. Will he go past the fly in and out big rallies and actually tour the state? Will he put more resources into ground game? Will he actually spend money on TV spots? Will he attack Cruz?  The problem is, the harder he goes after a win, the bigger of a deal it will be if he loses.

I think he will find a way to shoot for second place. The main thing is beating Rubio and the other 'establishment' types, but he can telegraph that Cruz winning is no big deal.

[pho]

Trump should funnel a bunch of money into an outside organization to fund pro Carson ads. Trump can't win Iowa by growing his own voter pool, but it's not implausible that enough of the ex Carson supporters could be talked into reversing themselves to split the field and let Trump sneak away with it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Evangelicals dominate Iowa caucuses, Romney went to Perry's right on immigration, but it cost him against Obama. He has to appear more conservative which will alienate voters in NH, who want a moderate.