Political Geography in a Clinton vs Trump election

[ElectionsGuy]

How do you think the political geography will change if we have the two front runners currently up against each other? What I think, based on Trump's demographic support, is that rural, below average to average income, less educates whites will support him even more than conventional Republican candidates, and he may even gain some among blacks who are more conservative and like his rhetoric on immigration and trade. However, what he gains by this is immediately retracted by huge losses among urban and suburban areas. Urban, liberal whites and minorities in big cities will bound together and vote Clinton in huge margins even beyond what was seen during the Obama years. Even traditionally Republican suburban areas should have a big drop in Republican support. The only areas I'm unsure of are exurban areas, which have the education and income of suburban areas but the culture of rural areas. If I had to guess, he'll lose a little ground there too. What do you think?

I did a little bit of guessing game with counties in the Midwest. I only filled in some states or metropolitan areas so far. Obviously the Midwest is not Trump's most favorable region, and in some places (WI, MN, MI) I expect Trump to do worse than Romney even in rural areas. But this gives you an idea of what I think will happen.



(non-Atlas colors, there are three tiers. One is under 60%, one is 60-70%, and one is >70%. Hopefully you can see them in both colors.)

The Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis suburbs are somewhat misleading. I expect them all to be low 60's for Trump instead of high 60's for traditional Republicans.

[Bismarck]

The big changes you predict in Indiana are Tippecanoe (Purdue University) flipping to the democrats and the rural agricultural counties around Fort Wayne trending to Trump. That seems fairly plausible.

[Devils30]

This seems plausible so far, looks like a 5% ish win for Clinton in Ohio.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I think that the southwest is likely to trend Democratic while Ohio, Wisconsin and PA trend Republican (though possibly not enough to flip any of them.)

[ElectionsGuy]

Did some more states.

[Mr. Illini]

Agree with his relatively weak performance in NH and relatively strong performance in upper ME.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

This was actually a pretty good prediction.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

This was actually a pretty good prediction.

Except for Clinton sweeping every county in New Hampshire and doing better than Obama in the Rust Belt, yeah.