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Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,088
Political Matrix E: -7.35, S: -6.26
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« Reply #22 on: December 25, 2015, 04:46:48 PM » |
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Here's what the 2012 general election Obama electorate looked like for each state. In almost all cases, the Latino primary share of the vote will be significantly lower as a percentage of the electorate, which will increase both the white and black percentages of the primary vote by the same proportion of the discrepancy as each group constitutes in a two-way analysis of the 2012 Democratic electorate. In other words, if a state's Obama vote was 60% white, 30% black & 10% latino, then the primary will look something like 63% white, 32% black and 5% latino. Latinos in most states will not be much of a factor in the primaries, but I also tend to believe that latinos aren't going to be anywhere near as big of a shoe-in for Clinton as blacks, or even as big as some Atlas posters might think. She'll probably win them but I don't expect her share of their votes will be larger than her share of the national primary vote (nor much smaller) unless it is really close nationally in the PV.
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