CNN/ORC DEMS - Clinton 50/Sanders 34
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  CNN/ORC DEMS - Clinton 50/Sanders 34
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Author Topic: CNN/ORC DEMS - Clinton 50/Sanders 34  (Read 3334 times)
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darthebearnc
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« on: December 23, 2015, 04:10:01 PM »

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/23/politics/cnn-orc-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders/index.html

Clinton 50
Sanders 34
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2015, 04:33:34 PM »

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Sanders was within 8 points before the debate and then the gap went to 33 points after the debate? That seems far fetched. I guess that's why they poll over multiple days.
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Gallium
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« Reply #2 on: December 23, 2015, 04:36:45 PM »

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I don't get this at all.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #3 on: December 23, 2015, 04:38:26 PM »

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Sanders was within 8 points before the debate and then the gap went to 33 points after the debate? That seems far fetched. I guess that's why they poll over multiple days.

It's so they could get away with this headline: "CNN poll: Post-debate, voters move to Clinton"
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #4 on: December 23, 2015, 05:17:15 PM »

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Sanders was within 8 points before the debate and then the gap went to 33 points after the debate? That seems far fetched. I guess that's why they poll over multiple days.

It's so they could get away with this headline: "CNN poll: Post-debate, voters move to Clinton"
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #5 on: December 23, 2015, 05:25:38 PM »

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cxs018
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« Reply #6 on: December 23, 2015, 05:27:10 PM »

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #7 on: December 23, 2015, 05:30:37 PM »

By the way, the full numbers are:

Clinton: 50% (-8%)
Sanders: 34% (+4%)
O’Malley: 3% (+1%)

Interesting detail in the crosstabs: Clinton gets 50% of both whites and nonwhites.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #8 on: December 23, 2015, 05:59:28 PM »

This poll is junk no matter what way you look at it. Clinton is getting more like 70% of nonwhites.
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jfern
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« Reply #9 on: December 23, 2015, 06:30:34 PM »

This poll is junk no matter what way you look at it. Clinton is getting more like 70% of nonwhites.

You mad that Hillary is up only 18 points with minorities? Are you going to unskew the polls?
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #10 on: December 23, 2015, 06:33:40 PM »

After expertly unskewing the polls, I have concluded that Sanders is actually leading Clinton 61-29 and has a 78-13 lead among minorities.

pretty sure
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Oak Hills
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« Reply #11 on: December 23, 2015, 07:16:59 PM »

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Sanders was within 8 points before the debate and then the gap went to 33 points after the debate? That seems far fetched. I guess that's why they poll over multiple days.

I didn't see anything about the balance between how many were polled on each day in the article or the poll report. Maybe sample size had something to do with that result?
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #12 on: December 24, 2015, 12:10:27 AM »

This poll is junk no matter what way you look at it. Clinton is getting more like 70% of nonwhites.

Lol stop being a hack no one thinks that will be the end result with Clinton getting 70% of minorities go away.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #13 on: December 24, 2015, 01:23:30 AM »

This poll is junk no matter what way you look at it. Clinton is getting more like 70% of nonwhites.

Lol stop being a hack no one thinks that will be the end result with Clinton getting 70% of minorities go away.

You're right of course. Most people think she will get more.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #14 on: December 24, 2015, 03:00:04 AM »

This poll is junk no matter what way you look at it. Clinton is getting more like 70% of nonwhites.

Lol stop being a hack no one thinks that will be the end result with Clinton getting 70% of minorities go away.

You're right of course. Most people think she will get more.

Then most people are dumb because i can promise you when the exit polls come out for the demographics Clinton will not be winning 3/1 or even 2/1 with non whites.
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cxs018
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« Reply #15 on: December 24, 2015, 09:41:28 AM »

This poll is junk no matter what way you look at it. Clinton is getting more like 70% of nonwhites.

Lol stop being a hack no one thinks that will be the end result with Clinton getting 70% of minorities go away.

You're right of course. Most people think she will get more.

Then most people are dumb because i can promise you when the exit polls come out for the demographics Clinton will not be winning 3/1 or even 2/1 with non whites.

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #16 on: December 24, 2015, 09:59:07 AM »

Who even cares about national polls at this point? More Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada polls please.

Also lol @ CNN for thinking a debate that like three people watched altered the race in any meaningful way.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #17 on: December 24, 2015, 11:56:21 PM »

Sanders closing the gap hm?
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Brewer
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« Reply #18 on: December 25, 2015, 11:25:31 AM »

This poll is junk no matter what way you look at it. Clinton is getting more like 70% of nonwhites.

Lol stop being a hack no one thinks that will be the end result with Clinton getting 70% of minorities go away.

You're right of course. Most people think she will get more.

Then most people are dumb because i can promise you when the exit polls come out for the demographics Clinton will not be winning 3/1 or even 2/1 with non whites.

lol
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #19 on: December 25, 2015, 02:49:01 PM »

This poll is junk no matter what way you look at it. Clinton is getting more like 70% of nonwhites.

Lol stop being a hack no one thinks that will be the end result with Clinton getting 70% of minorities go away.

You're right of course. Most people think she will get more.

Then most people are dumb because i can promise you when the exit polls come out for the demographics Clinton will not be winning 3/1 or even 2/1 with non whites.

lol

Not much of a response or evidence that she will win 3/1 of non whites....oh Clinton supporters...
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Holmes
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« Reply #20 on: December 25, 2015, 03:23:14 PM »

Let's just say it won't be pretty for Bernie in the South, and some of those states are close to majority, if not more, black in the Democratic primary.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #21 on: December 25, 2015, 04:35:17 PM »

Looks like Killer Mike truly is the kingmaker for minority Democrats...
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #22 on: December 25, 2015, 04:46:48 PM »

Here's what the 2012 general election Obama electorate looked like for each state. In almost all cases, the Latino primary share of the vote will be significantly lower as a percentage of the electorate, which will increase both the white and black percentages of the primary vote by the same proportion of the discrepancy as each group constitutes in a two-way analysis of the 2012 Democratic electorate. In other words, if a state's Obama vote was 60% white, 30% black & 10% latino, then the primary will look something like 63% white, 32% black and 5% latino.  

Latinos in most states will not be much of a factor in the primaries, but I also tend to believe that latinos aren't going to be anywhere near as big of a shoe-in for Clinton as blacks, or even as big as some Atlas posters might think. She'll probably win them but I don't expect her share of their votes will be larger than her share of the national primary vote (nor much smaller) unless it is really close nationally in the PV.
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Holmes
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« Reply #23 on: December 25, 2015, 05:06:32 PM »

The latino vore will probably fall under normal age conventions. My husband and his sister (mid 20's) are for Bernie. Their mom is for Clinton and their dad is undecided. Their grandparents and all their older friends are for Clinton.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #24 on: December 27, 2015, 09:29:09 AM »

Looks like Killer Mike truly is the kingmaker for minority Democrats...
Most blacks don't even know who Killer Mike is. He's semi-famous in Atlanta and like nowhere else. People know the music he's worked on, but have no idea who he is.
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