Fox Biz Jan 14 Debate Criteria - Top 6 National or Top 5 in IA/NH

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Rand endorsing kasich or CHRISTIE? Keep dreaming. He'd probably endorse carson then cruz.

Cruz would probably be the most likely if he was going to endorse.

[Likely Voter]

With no new polls, still no changes, but there are six more days for new polls. 

There is one bit of news. FoxB announced they will not show empty podiums if someone is still peeing. http://www.politico.com/blogs/on-media/2016/01/fox-business-network-debates-podium-217380

[Senator Cris]

The candidates that qualify for each debate will be announced on FBN’s Lou Dobbs Tonight on Monday, January 11 at 7 p.m. ET.

Link

[Senator Cris]

Do you know if there are other polls coming before the deadline?
I think Fox News will have National/IA/NH polls, but I'm not sure.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Geez Rand, nobody cares if you skip the debate, do us all a favor and drop out already and worry about your senate seat.

He has zero chance at the nomination and i like Rand Paul but be realistic and drop out already.

[Likely Voter]

Do you know if there are other polls coming before the deadline?
I think Fox News will have National/IA/NH polls, but I'm not sure.

Haven't heard anything but there is bound to be some before deadline.

[Progressive]

So would this be the current standing?

Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Carson
Christie
Bush

[Likely Voter]

This is still latest ranking, again assuming ARG NH poll I included



If ARG is not included then Kasich drops down to 6th in NH and is out of main debate. Obviously Pataki is also not going to kiddie debate

[Progressive]

This is still latest ranking, again assuming ARG NH poll I included



If ARG is not included then Kasich drops down to 6th in NH and is out of main debate. Obviously Pataki is also not going to kiddie debate

What are the chances of Fiorina or Paul dropping out of the race altogether if they don't make the main debate? I just feel that, especially for Fiorina, she would want to pull a George Constanza and "leave on a high note" having made her way up from performing at the kiddie debate to the main debate.

[Likely Voter]

I seriously doubt anyone would quit the race this close to IA/NH just for being demoted to the kiddie table. Fiorina could join Paul in threatening to not attend the kiddie table.  But Fiorina and Chistie both give hope that you can go from Kiddie to main.

[defe07]

Maybe fiorina and paul get to agree on having one on one debates like the douglas-lincoln ones??

[Torie]

I seriously doubt anyone would quit the race this close to IA/NH just for being demoted to the kiddie table. Fiorina could join Paul in threatening to not attend the kiddie table.  But Fiorina and Chistie both give hope that you can go from Kiddie to main.

Perhaps Fiorina has some chance of passing Carson in the polls in NH. She's campaigning there hard now, and is getting some more folks at her events. I wonder if anybody times the release of polls, based on these little debate deadlines, to try to influence who is there. In this last 5 polls prior to the deadline metric, that gives one a fairly substantial impact. If 5 polls come out between now and the 11th, that basically leaves us with a clean slate for the moment.

[Likely Voter]

I seriously doubt anyone would quit the race this close to IA/NH just for being demoted to the kiddie table. Fiorina could join Paul in threatening to not attend the kiddie table.  But Fiorina and Chistie both give hope that you can go from Kiddie to main.

Perhaps Fiorina has some chance of passing Carson in the polls in NH. She's campaigning there hard now, and is getting some more folks at her events. I wonder if anybody times the release of polls, based on these little debate deadlines, to try to influence who is there. In this last 5 polls prior to the deadline metric, that gives one a fairly substantial impact. If 5 polls come out between now and the 11th, that basically leaves us with a clean slate for the moment.

I doubt we are going to see 5 polls in any state (or nationally) before the deadline. Fiorina may have passed Carson in NH but she has to get past Bush and Kasich too if she wants to get into 5th place, and that doesn't seem likely.

My bet is we see a couple of national polls and one state poll each for IA and NH before the deadline.

[Lyin' Steve]

Looking at the way the RCP average has been going, if Rand hangs around he may just take Bush's 6th place national spot.

Christie 4.7
Bush 3.3
Paul 3

[Likely Voter]

If two new national polls came out and Paul average 1% more than Bush in both, then yes Paul would get into 6th place nationally and get on the main stage. Bush would still qualify with his IA position.

[Torie]

I seriously doubt anyone would quit the race this close to IA/NH just for being demoted to the kiddie table. Fiorina could join Paul in threatening to not attend the kiddie table.  But Fiorina and Chistie both give hope that you can go from Kiddie to main.

Perhaps Fiorina has some chance of passing Carson in the polls in NH. She's campaigning there hard now, and is getting some more folks at her events. I wonder if anybody times the release of polls, based on these little debate deadlines, to try to influence who is there. In this last 5 polls prior to the deadline metric, that gives one a fairly substantial impact. If 5 polls come out between now and the 11th, that basically leaves us with a clean slate for the moment.

I doubt we are going to see 5 polls in any state (or nationally) before the deadline. Fiorina may have passed Carson in NH but she has to get past Bush and Kasich too if she wants to get into 5th place, and that doesn't seem likely.

My bet is we see a couple of national polls and one state poll each for IA and NH before the deadline.

Oh, yeah, right. Caron in the NH line is in white too. She isn't going to be in, then most probably.

[Senator Cris]

Fox polls coming at 6PM.

[/]

Fox polls coming at 6PM.

Yay! We've been without polls for a while.

[Likely Voter]

Updated with Fox polls for US, IA and NH.

No real change except Bush and Kasich are now tied for 5th in NH. And as before Kasich's 5th place position relies entirely on inclusion of the latest ARG poll.

[The Other Castro]

It seems pretty much impossible for Paul to make it in unless there's more debate rule change shenanigans. The only question now is whether FOX will banish or save Kasich with ARG. Also, if there is a new NH poll before the deadline, Kasich can be trailing Bush by 1 but still tie with him on average (assuming ARG is used).

[gf20202]

Updated with Fox polls for US, IA and NH.

No real change except Bush and Kasich are now tied for 5th in NH. And as before Kasich's 5th place position relies entirely on inclusion of the latest ARG poll.

I have the same numbers. Just curious, and this may become moot if another national poll is released this weekend or early Monday, do you think there's any chance that FOX uses both the Monmouth and ABC/WP Polls as polls five and six in the National Average since they were both out in the field at the exact same time? Insignificant except that would get Pataki into the kiddie table debate.

What's the consensus on whether FOX is going to allow ARG? I know it's less known and not very well regarded, but seems like it checks all of FOX's boxes.

[Likely Voter]

Updated with Fox polls for US, IA and NH.

No real change except Bush and Kasich are now tied for 5th in NH. And as before Kasich's 5th place position relies entirely on inclusion of the latest ARG poll.

I have the same numbers. Just curious, and this may become moot if another national poll is released this weekend or early Monday, do you think there's any chance that FOX uses both the Monmouth and ABC/WP Polls as polls five and six in the National Average since they were both out in the field at the exact same time? Insignificant except that would get Pataki into the kiddie table debate.

What's the consensus on whether FOX is going to allow ARG? I know it's less known and not very well regarded, but seems like it checks all of FOX's boxes.

Fair point on the ABC and Monmouth poll and they might include both in the average if no new polls come out, however it makes no difference to the top 6 (except that Christie and Bush end up tied for 5th). As for Pataki, he dropped out so that is a moot point.

As for ARG, I have no idea. They included the IBD/TIPP poll last time so I think they could include ARG, althoug if they want to pack the kiddie table they may ignore it to push Kasich into the early debate.

[Likely Voter]

Paul has again said he will refuse to attend the kiddie table debate, but he didn't stop there. He has lots of grievances...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/rand-paul-undercard-debate-217523

[The Other Castro]

This graphic from WSJ suggests that ARG will be used, though it's FOX's debate so who knows.
http://graphics.wsj.com/elections/2016/january-gop-debate-cutoff/

[gf20202]

New NBC polls in IA and NH don't change anything.

Paul is at 5 and Bush is at 4 in IA. Not nearly enough to make up the margin for fifth whether it is Loras or Quinnipiac dropped.

Both Kasich and Bush are at 9 in NH. It still comes down to whether ARG is counted. Politico doesn't seem to think it will be and the reporter mentioned that NBC wouldn't count it previously. I still think it muddies the waters enough that Kasich will be invited to the main debate.