German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[Middle-aged Europe]

I can't see Lafontaine's party going into a coalition with the SPD, there is simply too much bad blood there. If anything, a Grand Coalition seems more and more likely, though I wonder if Merkel would give a cabinet seat to Muentefehring - after all, another SPD party leader, Brandt, was a pivotal figure in Kiesinger's cabinet during the late 60s.

Rumour is (and there are a lot of rumours going around here right now ) that the former minister-president/prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, Peer Steinbrück (SPD), is supposed to become vice-chancellor in a grand coalition under Merkel.

Despite having lost the NRW state election in May, which led to this early election on national level in the first place, he's still considered as one of the "rising stars" in the SPD. That's probably because his defeat in NRW wasn't really his fault... at least not primarily. The people were tired after 40 years of SPD rule and Steinbrück never had much chance to solve the state's problems because he had become PM only two and a half years earlier, when then-PM Wolfgang Clement moved to Berlin in order to join Schröder´s cabinet.

Being kind of a centrist, Steinbrück would perhaps be a logical choice for the position of the vice-chancellor in a coalition with the CDU/CSU.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Uh, I'm so stupid... I totally messed up the numbers in my summary of the opinion polls. At least I noticed it before someone else did.   I removed the numbers in the brackets now... the rest of the info is correct.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll (from Forsa, released today):

CDU/CSU 42%
SPD 35%
Left Party 7%
Greens 7%
FDP 6%

CDU/CSU + FDP = 48%
SPD + Left Party + Greens (hypothetically speaking ) = 49%

It still seems like a 50/50 chance for either a CDU/FDP or a CDU/SPD coalition.

[Huckleberry Finn]

Intresting thread but I have no time to post anything. Work takes currently almost all my time. Literally.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New poll (from GMS, released yesterday):

CDU/CSU 42%
SPD 33%
Greens 8%
FDP 7%
Left Party 7%

CDU/CSU + FDP = 49%
SPD + Greens + Left Party = 48%

[Middle-aged Europe]

And here is a new Emnid poll, released today:

CDU/CSU 42%
SPD 33.5%
Left Party 8%
Greens 7%
FDP 6.5%

CDU/CSU + FDP = 48.5%
SPD + Left Party + Greens = 48.5%

[CO-OWL]

Some people in the SPD seem to be really desperate...



The text says: "She [Angela Merkel] would have sent soldiers [to Iraq]".
Rolf Schwanitz is an SPD MP from Saxony.

[afleitch]

Exactly, the SDP are using the Iraq War a SECOND time in order to try to win the election. Germany needs Merkel and you know what, so do the SDP. It would allow them to weed out their own corruption and rebalance their policies.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A tasteless poster, but wasn't there this CDU MP (from Saxony too) who used a campaign slogan, which was taken from the NPD (who had taken it from a slogan used by the Vichy regime in France during WWII)?

Moral:
1) Individual candidates do stupid things.
2) The parties as a whole are not responsible for the actions of individual candidates.
3) Those MP's in Saxony certainly know how they got their votes.



Anyway, here's a new Allensbach poll:
CDU/CSU 41.7%
SPD 32.9%
Left Party 8.5%
Greens 7.2%
FDP 7.0%

CDU/CSU + FDP = 48.7%
SPD + Left Party + Greens = 48.6%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Exactly, the SDP are using the Iraq War a SECOND time in order to try to win the election.

Actually, this time they're using Kirchhof and the flat tax.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, let's see...

the CDU has ruled out a coalition with the SPD,

the FDP has ruled out a coalition with the SPD and the Greens,

the SPD and the Greens have ruled out a coalition with the Left Party,

the Left Party has ruled out a coalition with the SPD and the Greens.
 

So, in the case that CDU/CSU and FDP won't have a majority this sunday anarchy will either become our new official form of government or someone will have to break his/her promise concerning possible coalitions in order to maintain a working government. So, who's gonna be the "liar"?

[Bono]

 

So, in the case that CDU/CSU and FDP won't have a majority this sunday anarchy will either become our new official form of government

pweese

[Angel of Death]

Hmmm, if the 3 smaller parties manage to regularly reach the requirements for proportional seats and a subsequent necessary grand coalition becomes a regular necessity, this could start a new discussion about the whole election system.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hmmm, if the 3 smaller parties manage to regularly reach the requirements for proportional seats and a subsequent necessary grand coalition becomes a regular necessity, this could start a new discussion about the whole election system.

I'm not so sure... the smaller parties are getting seats by proportional representation since 1949 and this would be the first (and perhaps only) time that it would force CDU/CSU and SPD to enter a coalition. And the current electoral system is very well established and only questioned by a few people.


Btw, a really odd rumour has come up now... according to a newspaper report Merkel allegedly plans to hold another election in the case that CDU/CSU and FDP won't win a majority on this sunday. Either some journalists are taking some really good drugs or Merkel is starting to lose her mind. I'll wait for a confirmation or denial from the CDU. Boy, is this election f***ed up.

Of course, from a certain point of view it makes sense... when you're failing to win a majority you want to repeat the election so many times until you have your majority. If true this could Merkel break her neck. But for now I'll assume it's just the product of a overeager journalist.

[Angel of Death]

How could Merkel have the power to hold another election if she doesn't have a majority in the first place?

[Middle-aged Europe]

How could Merkel have the power to hold another election if she doesn't have a majority in the first place?

By using some loopholes in the constitution.

The Chancellor is formally elected by the members of the Bundestag. If a chancellor candidate fails to win an absolute majority (+ 50%) of the MP's votes in the Bundestag in the first two attempts, only a relative majority is sufficient in the third ballot. In this case (which never happened so far btw) the President may appoint the winner of this third ballot Chancellor or dissolve the Bundestag and call for early elections.

This is the way the scenario would take place:
1) CDU/CSU and FDP fail to win a majority on election night.
2) Merkel refuses to enter a coalition with the SPD under any circumstances.
3) Merkel tries to get elected in the Bundestag, but fails to reach a majority in the first two ballots, because she only has the support of CDU/CSU and FDP.
4) In the third ballot she gets only the relative majority and President Köhler dissolves the Bundestag again and calls for early elections.

Of course, this would be highly unpopular und wouldn't make much sense anyway. Aside from the fact that it would remind everyone of the unpleasent times of the Weimar Republic, what if CDU/CSU and FDP fail to reach a majority in this election too? Will the be the election repeated so many times until Merkel has the majority she wants?


Anyway, it seems that this scenario was actually discussed within the CDU, but it is only an option... an option, which will most likely not be used. I say either CDU/CSU and FDP will win a majority on sunday or the CDU/CSU will reluctantly enter a coalition with the SPD. Merkel won't have a other choice. When the voters don't want a majority for CDU/CSU and FDP, then the voters don't want a majority for CDU/CSU and FDP, period.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Forsa poll released... shows a slight advantage for CDU/FDP.

CDU/CSU 41%-43%
SPD 32%-34%
FDP 7%-8%
Left Party 7%-8%
Greens 6%-7%

CDU/CSU + FDP = 48%-51%
SPD + Left Party + Greens = 45%-49%

[CO-OWL]

New Allensbach poll released... also shows a slight advantage for CDU/FDP.

CDU/CSU 41.5%
SPD 32.5%
FDP 8%
Left Party.PDS 8.5%
Greens 7%

CDU/CSU + FDP = 49.5%
SPD + Left Party + Greens = 48%


I think that's the last poll released before the election.

[minionofmidas]

Hmmm, if the 3 smaller parties manage to regularly reach the requirements for proportional seats and a subsequent necessary grand coalition becomes a regular necessity, this could start a new discussion about the whole election system.

Btw, a really odd rumour has come up now... according to a newspaper report Merkel allegedly plans to hold another election in the case that CDU/CSU and FDP won't win a majority on this sunday. Either some journalists are taking some really good drugs or Merkel is starting to lose her mind. I'll wait for a confirmation or denial from the CDU. Boy, is this election f***ed up.

"Starting"?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hmmm, if the 3 smaller parties manage to regularly reach the requirements for proportional seats and a subsequent necessary grand coalition becomes a regular necessity, this could start a new discussion about the whole election system.

Btw, a really odd rumour has come up now... according to a newspaper report Merkel allegedly plans to hold another election in the case that CDU/CSU and FDP won't win a majority on this sunday. Either some journalists are taking some really good drugs or Merkel is starting to lose her mind. I'll wait for a confirmation or denial from the CDU. Boy, is this election f***ed up.

"Starting"?

LOL

[minionofmidas]

Anyway, it seems that this scenario was actually discussed within the CDU, but it is only an option... an option, which will most likely not be used. I say either CDU/CSU and FDP will win a majority on sunday or the CDU/CSU will reluctantly enter a coalition with the SPD. Merkel won't have a other choice. When the voters don't want a majority for CDU/CSU and FDP, then the voters don't want a majority for CDU/CSU and FDP, period.

Basically, the way it sounded on the radio was, CDU politicians were asked to deny they'd been discussing this and instead denied they'd actually do it. In other words, they discussed it and noticed it's a stupid idea.
(Btw - if the CDU and FDP really were to try that, they wouldn't force new elections. In all likelihood, they'd force a red-red-green coalition instead.)

[WMS]

Well, let's see...

the CDU has ruled out a coalition with the SPD,

the FDP has ruled out a coalition with the SPD and the Greens,

the SPD and the Greens have ruled out a coalition with the Left Party,

the Left Party has ruled out a coalition with the SPD and the Greens.
 

So, in the case that CDU/CSU and FDP won't have a majority this sunday anarchy will either become our new official form of government or someone will have to break his/her promise concerning possible coalitions in order to maintain a working government. So, who's gonna be the "liar"?

You forgot the one possible combination not ruled out above...

...CDU/CSU + FDP + Left Party...
*ducks*

[ThePrezMex]

Lewis, Old Europe and other Germans: why?? why is the German people about to create a mess for themselves??

I can't believe how Merkel was able to throw down the drain the advantage she had just a month ago. I do need to recognize Schroeder's impressive campaign skills, just one more time.
I do hope that the CDU/CSU/FDP are finally able to get a majority, although I find Merkel both unimpressive and uninspiring - seems like most Germans do find her that way as well.

I think that Germans are going to wake up on Sunday and realize that they cannot waste more time and not willing to create such uncertainty (which would be pretty un-German) and give the majority to someone. So, I predict a small majority for CDU/CSU/FDP.

My alternative scenario is that, everybody just trying to create a majority government, splits to CDU/CSU and SPD, just abandoning Greens, FDP and Left Party (maybe just one of them entering the Bundestag). That would be interesting.

[Cubby]

Why is Schroeder so insistant about not forming a coalition with the Greens again? Have there been problems over the past four years within the Red-Green government?

[minionofmidas]

Well, let's see...

the CDU has ruled out a coalition with the SPD,

the FDP has ruled out a coalition with the SPD and the Greens,

the SPD and the Greens have ruled out a coalition with the Left Party,

the Left Party has ruled out a coalition with the SPD and the Greens.
 

So, in the case that CDU/CSU and FDP won't have a majority this sunday anarchy will either become our new official form of government or someone will have to break his/her promise concerning possible coalitions in order to maintain a working government. So, who's gonna be the "liar"?

You forgot the one possible combination not ruled out above...

...CDU/CSU + FDP + Left Party...
*ducks*

Or how about CDU and CSU splitting ways, as in an SPD-Greens-CSU coalition?