German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[minionofmidas]

With the SPD slowly rising hopefully they can take back enough from the CDU/CSU and have an SPD/Left Party/Greens coalition.

No way. SPD themselves would rather go for the grand coalition than deal with the left.  You'd see CDU/FDP/Green or SDP/Green/FDP before you see anything with the left. Though in case of CDU/CSU/FDP government being impossible I would be betting on the grand coalition (with or without FDP and Greens).

Without.
The question is...will it last four years?

[ag]

With the SPD slowly rising hopefully they can take back enough from the CDU/CSU and have an SPD/Left Party/Greens coalition.

No way. SPD themselves would rather go for the grand coalition than deal with the left.  You'd see CDU/FDP/Green or SDP/Green/FDP before you see anything with the left. Though in case of CDU/CSU/FDP government being impossible I would be betting on the grand coalition (with or without FDP and Greens).

Without.
The question is...will it last four years?

No. But it will last llong enough either for the Left to retreat to the East, where it belongs as a regionalist party, or a major new realignment to start emerging.  For SPD to ever join with the Left would mean to sign its own death warrant - it would split up like a ripe banana, losing much of its electorate in the process.

[minionofmidas]

With the SPD slowly rising hopefully they can take back enough from the CDU/CSU and have an SPD/Left Party/Greens coalition.

No way. SPD themselves would rather go for the grand coalition than deal with the left.  You'd see CDU/FDP/Green or SDP/Green/FDP before you see anything with the left. Though in case of CDU/CSU/FDP government being impossible I would be betting on the grand coalition (with or without FDP and Greens).

Without.
The question is...will it last four years?

No. But it will last llong enough either for the Left to retreat to the East, where it belongs as a regionalist party, or a major new realignment to start emerging.  For SPD to ever join with the Left would mean to sign its own death warrant - it would split up like a ripe banana, losing much of its electorate in the process.

That's actually doubtful. State governments in Berlin and MV certainly didn't cause much of a problem. There is a very good reason why there won't be an SPD-Green-Left government, or even an SPD-Green government tolerated by the Left, this time around, but it's nothing to do with the SPD's voters and all to do with its leaders, and the Left's. After all that's happened, you can't really expect Gerhard Schröder (or Wolfgang Clement etc) to be in the same cabinet with Oskar Lafontaine again. At least not right now.

[ag]

In the East it is a slightly different story - PDS has developed in a regional party, not simply the far leftist one, nor merely the heir to the SED of inglorious memory.

But that's not the case in the West. There are enough voters in the West for whom such a coalition would be unacceptable, and enough people would be pushed to the FDP and the Greens to weaken SPD.  However, the big drain would be in the other direction: once the alliance is sanctified and the stigma is gone, many on the SPD's left would loose inhibitions and consider voting Left.

Of course, it so happens that the SPD leadership detests Lafontaine (the feeling is mutual, of course), so the theory is not likely to be tested in practice.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The question is - why is the shrewd old beast doing that? Has he given up all hope of Merkel becoming chancellor and is trying to ensure she loses worse than he did? Or does he merely fear that the CSU result of four years ago can't be maintained (no Bavarian is running for chancellor after all) and is trying to boost the CSU's relative strength compared to the CDU?

I assume the latter. Bashing the East Germans is apparently popular among the Bavarian electorate. However, Stoiber didn´t take into account that the national media could acutally notice what he´s doing there, which, in hindsight, was rather naive of him. Either this or he simply doesn´t care how much damage he´s doing to the CDU as long as the CSU´s election result will be very good.


Stoiber´s remarks that the east shouldn´t be allowed to decide the outcome of the election again are wrong/illogical for several reasons.

First, "every vote counts", no matter from what region they come from. A vote from the east is as much worth than a vote from the west. We don´t have a "the winner-takes-all" rule here. From this point of view, it would be even more accurate to claim that elections are decided by "the west", because nearly four fifths of the voters are living there. East Germans are only a minortiy.

Second, would he have taken a look on the regional distribution of the votes for the last two elections, he would have noticed that we don´t have a east/west split, but more a north/south split. The southern states in the west (Bavaria/Baden-Württemberg) as well as the east (Saxony) voted for CDU/CSU, while the northern states in the west and the east voted SPD. The outcome of the 1998 and 2002 elections were decided by the north and not the east. So, why isn´t he bashing "North Germans" then? Because the term "North German" wouldn´t rise so many emotions (= votes for the CSU) among Bavarian voters than the term "East German".

Third, Stoiber´s remarks are alienating many potential CDU voters in the east and drive them right into the arms of the Left Party. So, it´s hypocritical to claim that he tries to fight the Left Party with his speeches, because the Left Party is made even stronger by his remarks. Expect the poll numbers of the Left Party to rise even further in the east. But like I already mentioned, Stoiber doesn´t seem to care what happens to the CDU.


Other "collateral damage" caused by Stoiber´s speeches:
1) CDU/CSU are now more concerned with fighting themselves than fighting against the SPD.
2) Schröder tries to present himself as a "uniter", while the CDU/CSU is depicted as the "divider" of Germany.

[WMS]

You can tell there's an election soon in Germany when...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

I believe Lincoln was right, but better check the weather forecast for Eastern Germany

Election time is getting closer...should be fun to follow.

[jaichind]

With the SPD slowly rising hopefully they can take back enough from the CDU/CSU and have an SPD/Left Party/Greens coalition.

No way. SPD themselves would rather go for the grand coalition than deal with the left.  You'd see CDU/FDP/Green or SDP/Green/FDP before you see anything with the left. Though in case of CDU/CSU/FDP government being impossible I would be betting on the grand coalition (with or without FDP and Greens).

But a Grand Coaltion would mean gridlock.  All protest floating voters will surge to the Left Party and they will be stronger than ever and even get some roots into the West.  Of course a SPD/Green/Left government is not possible even if it could command a majority (it is only a couple percentage points away now) since SPD burned its bridges to both parties in how it called this election and how it campaigned so far. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's the Political Compass graph on the current German parties:



I have to really chuckle. You never know what Political Compass are thinking when they make their charts, going by this, my mom is probably significantly to the left of both the Left/PDS and Greens, even though "Christian democrat" would sum up her ideology fairly accurately (even though I'm sure she has no clue what it means). And don't even get me started on where SPD is. Not to mention this puts SPD on a whole to the right of where Schroeder is on the world leaders list.

Old Europe posted his estimations of where the parties would be awhile earlier but I'm too lazy to find it, if anyone can please post it, and if anyone could graph it that'd be cool.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The charts the political compass people do are so bad they're laughable

[Middle-aged Europe]

You can tell there's an election soon in Germany when...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

I believe Lincoln was right, but better check the weather forecast for Eastern Germany

Election time is getting closer...should be fun to follow.

Merkel has now ruled out an military option too. I think she said literally, that there´s no difference between her and Schröder´s stance on the issue.

Politically, this was perhaps the best move, because it doesn´t give Schröder the opportunity to attack Merkel on Iran anymore. The question is if the voters will believe her.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Here's the Political Compass graph on the current German parties:



I have to really chuckle. You never know what Political Compass are thinking when they make their charts, going by this, my mom is probably significantly to the left of both the Left/PDS and Greens, even though "Christian democrat" would sum up her ideology fairly accurately (even though I'm sure she has no clue what it means). And don't even get me started on where SPD is. Not to mention this puts SPD on a whole to the right of where Schroeder is on the world leaders list.

Funny that CDU, SPD, and FDP are all supposed to be in the same quadrant. And there´s no way that the Greens are more leftist on economic issues than the NPD. The opposite is probably the case.

Old Europe posted his estimations of where the parties would be awhile earlier but I'm too lazy to find it, if anyone can please post it, and if anyone could graph it that'd be cool.

Well, I tried to answer the Political Compass as if I were the party´s main candidates.


Schröder (SPD)
Economic Left/Right: -2.25
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -2.82

Merkel (CDU)
Economic Left/Right: 1.50
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.92

Fischer (Greens)
Economic Left/Right: -3.63
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.90

Westerwelle (FDP)
Economic Left/Right: 4.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -4.87

Gysi (Left Party)
Economic Left/Right: -8.13
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.38

Lafontaine (Left Party)
Economic Left/Right: -8.63
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.38

Voigt (NPD)
Economic Left/Right: -7.13
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 3.69


I found the NPD´s social score to be extremely flawed... you should actually double their number. And Lafontaine has also moved towards the "Authoritarian" side of the spectrum since the start of his campaign (though he´s still much more liberal than the NPD ).

And please note that both Schröder and Merkel are perhaps more moderate than the mainstream of their respective parties (Schröder particularly on economic issues, with the same applying to Merkel on social issues).

[Middle-aged Europe]

And now I tried to put the party´s stances on economic, social, and foreign policy issues in different categories (Right, Center-Right, Centrist, Center-Left and Left).


CDU/CSU
--> Economic issues: Center-Right
--> Social issues: Center-Right
--> Foreign policy issues: Center-Right

SPD
--> Economic issues: Center-Left
--> Social issues: Center-Left
--> Foreign policy issues: Center-Left

FDP
--> Economic issues: Right
--> Social issues: Center-Left
--> Foreign policy issues: Centrist

Greens
--> Economic issues: Center-Left
--> Social issues: Left
--> Foreign policy issues: Center-Left

Left Party
--> Economic issues: Left
--> Social issues: Left/Right... or "Centrist", if you like (this is actually hard to tell, Lafontaine´s remarks about immigration and other things are indicating a much more conservative agenda than SPD and Greens or even the CDU have, but on the other hand is Lafontaine´s stance wholeheartedly opposed by many within the Left Party. So, the party is neither Left nor Right on social issues, but a bit of both. Sounds schizophrenic? Yes, it is.)
--> Foreign policy issues: Left (well, mostly, Lafontaine also spoke out against a EU membership of Turkey)

NPD
--> Economic issues: Left
--> Social issues: Right
--> Foreign policy issues: Left/Right (Depends... they generally oppose any kind of German participation in military interventions, be it in Kosovo, Afghanistan, or Iraq. But this isn´t a sign for pacifism, but mainly derived from their anti-American/anti-Semitic/"pro-Islamist" stance. They wouldn´t actually oppose invading Poland or bombing Israel.)



My measure for foreign policy issues was mainly the party´s stance on different military interventions. Opposition to all kind of military actions is "Left", opposition to the Iraq war, but not to the wars in Afghanistan and Kosovo is "Center-Left", a neutral stance on the Iraq war is "Centrist" and being in favor of the invasion of Iraq is "Center-Right" (with being in favor of a invasion of Poland is "Right" *lol*). Other possible indicators are the stances on the EU constitution and the admittance of Turkey into the Union.

Primary measure for the economic stance was the kind of approval of (or the opposition to) Schröder´s "Agenda 2010" and "Hartz IV" reforms and whether further and more radical reforms are needed. "Left" means "reverse all of Schröder´s reforms immediately" and "Right" means "reduce the welfare state significantly or scrap it altogether".

The social issues were a bit harder, because most of them play only a secondary role, if at all. Immigration is one possible indicator.


As you could see, aside from their economic stance the Left Party is sort of hard to localize. The average card-carrying party member is probably "Left" on economic, social, as well as foreign policy issues. But Lafontaine, who isn´t actually a member of the party, is taking a much more "populist" stance... and I think the term "populist" could be applied to Lafontaine both in the American and the European meaning.

[CO-OWL]

Well, I tried to answer the Political Compass as if I were the party´s main candidates.


Schröder (SPD)
Economic Left/Right: -2.25
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -2.82

Merkel (CDU)
Economic Left/Right: 1.50
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -0.92

Fischer (Greens)
Economic Left/Right: -3.63
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.90

Westerwelle (FDP)
Economic Left/Right: 4.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -4.87

Gysi (Left Party)
Economic Left/Right: -8.13
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.38

Lafontaine (Left Party)
Economic Left/Right: -8.63
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.38

Voigt (NPD)
Economic Left/Right: -7.13
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 3.69

Playing with the Political Compass I got results quite similar to those of Old Europe: (including Edmund Stoiber)

Schröder (SPD)
Economic Left/Right: -2.63
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -2.41

Merkel (CDU)
Economic Left/Right: 1.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -1.20

Fischer (Greens)
Economic Left/Right: -5.13
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.64

Westerwelle (FDP)
Economic Left/Right: 4.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.78

Stoiber (CSU)
Economic Left/Right: 0.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 3.08

I agree that the Left Party (PDS) should be around -8/-7, with Lafontaine heading for the populist direction.
The NPD will end up with around 2% of the vote and that's it.

[WMS]

You can tell there's an election soon in Germany when...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

I believe Lincoln was right, but better check the weather forecast for Eastern Germany

Election time is getting closer...should be fun to follow.

Merkel has now ruled out an military option too. I think she said literally, that there´s no difference between her and Schröder´s stance on the issue.

Politically, this was perhaps the best move, because it doesn´t give Schröder the opportunity to attack Merkel on Iran anymore. The question is if the voters will believe her.

Clever. Seriously, the U.S. isn't expecting Germany to help with any military operations whatsoever, so why this is even an issue over there is beyond me.

[CO-OWL]

The question is - why is the shrewd old beast doing that? Has he given up all hope of Merkel becoming chancellor and is trying to ensure she loses worse than he did? Or does he merely fear that the CSU result of four years ago can't be maintained (no Bavarian is running for chancellor after all) and is trying to boost the CSU's relative strength compared to the CDU?

I assume the latter. Bashing the East Germans is apparently popular among the Bavarian electorate. However, Stoiber didn´t take into account that the national media could acutally notice what he´s doing there, which, in hindsight, was rather naive of him. Either this or he simply doesn´t care how much damage he´s doing to the CDU as long as the CSU´s election result will be very good.

I think bashing the "ungrateful" East Germans might attract voters in other West German states as well. Sadly there's still a large gap between "Wessis" and "Ossis".
Since around 80% of the votes are cast in West Germany and the CDU has not much to lose in East Germany, Stoiber's strategy (if there really is one) might in fact benefit the CDU/CSU. Or it might backfire and boost turnout (and Left Party results) in Eastern Germany.

I'm sure Stoiber hasn't digested the 2002 election results yet. After all in 2002 CDU/CSU/FDP won a tight majority in West Germany, which was offset by massive SPD gains in East Germany...
Hence he can blame the "stupid" East Germans for his defeat.


And again we do not talk about the really important issues...

[CO-OWL]

You can tell there's an election soon in Germany when...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

I believe Lincoln was right, but better check the weather forecast for Eastern Germany

Election time is getting closer...should be fun to follow.

Merkel has now ruled out an military option too. I think she said literally, that there´s no difference between her and Schröder´s stance on the issue.

Politically, this was perhaps the best move, because it doesn´t give Schröder the opportunity to attack Merkel on Iran anymore. The question is if the voters will believe her.

Clever. Seriously, the U.S. isn't expecting Germany to help with any military operations whatsoever, so why this is even an issue over there is beyond me.

Because to be perceived as a Bush supporter kills your electoral prospects at once and for all times.

[WMS]

You can tell there's an election soon in Germany when...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

I believe Lincoln was right, but better check the weather forecast for Eastern Germany

Election time is getting closer...should be fun to follow.

Merkel has now ruled out an military option too. I think she said literally, that there´s no difference between her and Schröder´s stance on the issue.

Politically, this was perhaps the best move, because it doesn´t give Schröder the opportunity to attack Merkel on Iran anymore. The question is if the voters will believe her.

Clever. Seriously, the U.S. isn't expecting Germany to help with any military operations whatsoever, so why this is even an issue over there is beyond me.

Because to be perceived as a Bush supporter kills your electoral prospects at once and for all times.

Oh, yes, that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, yes, that.

Didn't hurt the U.K's German MP (Gisela Stuart, Lab, Brum Edgbaston)... and that wasn't just percieved support

[Middle-aged Europe]

The question is - why is the shrewd old beast doing that? Has he given up all hope of Merkel becoming chancellor and is trying to ensure she loses worse than he did? Or does he merely fear that the CSU result of four years ago can't be maintained (no Bavarian is running for chancellor after all) and is trying to boost the CSU's relative strength compared to the CDU?

I assume the latter. Bashing the East Germans is apparently popular among the Bavarian electorate. However, Stoiber didn´t take into account that the national media could acutally notice what he´s doing there, which, in hindsight, was rather naive of him. Either this or he simply doesn´t care how much damage he´s doing to the CDU as long as the CSU´s election result will be very good.

I think bashing the "ungrateful" East Germans might attract voters in other West German states as well. Sadly there's still a large gap between "Wessis" and "Ossis".
Since around 80% of the votes are cast in West Germany and the CDU has not much to lose in East Germany, Stoiber's strategy (if there really is one) might in fact benefit the CDU/CSU. Or it might backfire and boost turnout (and Left Party results) in Eastern Germany.

I'm sure Stoiber hasn't digested the 2002 election results yet. After all in 2002 CDU/CSU/FDP won a tight majority in West Germany, which was offset by massive SPD gains in East Germany...
Hence he can blame the "stupid" East Germans for his defeat.


And again we do not talk about the really important issues...

Just to point out how illogical Stoiber´s remarks about the east are:

All eastern states PLUS Berlin (where not all voters could be counted as "East German" btw) have a total population of 16.9 million people (my numbers are from late 2003).

The western state of Northrhine-Westphalia has a population of about 18.1 million people. Like in the eastern states a majority of the voters there (51.9%... compared to the 44.5% in the east) voted for SPD and Greens.

So, why doesn´t Stoiber blame the Northrhine-Westphalians for his 2002 defeat? This single state has a larger population than the entire east and they voted for SPD/Greens too (and the voter turnout in western states like NRW is usually higher than in the east anyway). Answer: Bashing Northrhine-Westphalians doesn´t help your party at the polls.

(But it´s a funny picture to imagine Stoiber saying: "I do not accept that Norththine-Westphalia will again decide who will be Germany's chancellor." )

[WMS]

Oh, yes, that.

Didn't hurt the U.K's German MP (Gisela Stuart, Lab, Brum Edgbaston)... and that wasn't just percieved support

Well, that's the U.K. after all.

[CO-OWL]

Just to point out how illogical Stoiber´s remarks about the east are:

All eastern states PLUS Berlin (where not all voters could be counted as "East German" btw) have a total population of 16.9 million people (my numbers are from late 2003).

The western state of Northrhine-Westphalia has a population of about 18.1 million people. Like in the eastern states a majority of the voters there (51.9%... compared to the 44.5% in the east) voted for SPD and Greens.

So, why doesn´t Stoiber blame the Northrhine-Westphalians for his 2002 defeat? This single state has a larger population than the complete east and they voted for SPD/Greens too (and the voter turnout in western states like NRW is usually higher than in the east anyway). Answer: Bashing Northrhine-Westphalians doesn´t help your party at the polls.

I agree. You run for Chancellor of a united Germany, you have to get votes everywhere. If it wanted to the West could easily outvote the East. One vote is one vote, whether it's cast in Brandenburg, Lower Saxony or Bavaria. (except for overhang seats, of course)


It would be interesting to see Stoiber's reactions if overhang seats from, say Saxony and Thuringia would create a CDU/CSU/FDP majority.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Because to be perceived as a Bush supporter kills your electoral prospects at once and for all times.

Oh, yes, that.

Yes, that one. Considering how extremely close the 2002 election here was, it isn´t too far-fetched to assume that Stoiber could have actually won... had Al Gore (and not Bush) been in the White House!

You may blame the East Germans, you may blame North Rhine-Westphalia... or you simply may blame Florida.

[skybridge]

Because to be perceived as a Bush supporter kills your electoral prospects at once and for all times.

Oh, yes, that.

Yes, that one. Considering how extremely close the 2002 election here was, it isn´t too far-fetched to assume that Stoiber could have actually won... had Al Gore (and not Bush) been in the White House!

You may blame the East Germans, you may blame North Rhine-Westphalia... or you simply may blame Florida.

Had Al Gore won, the economic situation would be completely different.

[WMS]

Because to be perceived as a Bush supporter kills your electoral prospects at once and for all times.

Oh, yes, that.

Yes, that one. Considering how extremely close the 2002 election here was, it isn´t too far-fetched to assume that Stoiber could have actually won... had Al Gore (and not Bush) been in the White House!

You may blame the East Germans, you may blame North Rhine-Westphalia... or you simply may blame Florida.

I'll just blame knee-jerk anti-Americanism as usual.

[minionofmidas]

You can tell there's an election soon in Germany when...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

I believe Lincoln was right, but better check the weather forecast for Eastern Germany

Election time is getting closer...should be fun to follow.

Merkel has now ruled out an military option too. I think she said literally, that there´s no difference between her and Schröder´s stance on the issue.

Politically, this was perhaps the best move, because it doesn´t give Schröder the opportunity to attack Merkel on Iran anymore. The question is if the voters will believe her.

Clever. Seriously, the U.S. isn't expecting Germany to help with any military operations whatsoever, so why this is even an issue over there is beyond me.

Because to be perceived as a Bush supporter kills your electoral prospects at once and for all times.

It isn't really an issue. The fact that it might become an issue is an issue.