German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[Middle-aged Europe]

I´ve modified the first post in this topic and tried to fill it with the most important informations on this election (mostly links). Just go to page 1.

If there´s something missing just say so.

[migrendel]

Does anyone know of a website that lists the constituency-by- constituency results for the 2002 election?

[minionofmidas]

In German.

[migrendel]

Trotz des Deutschs, ich werde das lesen. Danke schoen.

[Middle-aged Europe]

An rather odd rumour has come up now... allegedly, the SPD thinks about the possibility of cancelling the early election. The reason are the dropping personal sympathy numbers for Schröder. Instead, Schröder would resign and be replaced by SPD chair Franz Müntefering, who would then lead the party in the regular election next year.

At present, all of this should be considered as nothing more than a rumour.


News from the PDS/WASG: Apparently, the chances for an electoral alliance/merger have increased a bit. The main obstacle seems to be the name for the new alliance/party. The letters "PDS" have a good reputation in the eastern states, but a bad rep in the west. So, the PDS wants their old name to be a part of the new name (for example, something like "Democratic Left - PDS", according to some of the rumours), while the WASG wants a complete new name without the "PDS" in it.

[Huckleberry Finn]

Did turkish immigration play a role in the election?

No, but EU membership of Turkey will do.

[Huckleberry Finn]

I remember the New York Times saying within the past 2 years that Germany at the present time resembles Britain in the 1970's, and seems on the verge of a Thatcher-like revolution in politics.

It's the really reasonable analysis. I have myself thought in the same way. In France situation is similar. Situatution in Germany is more intelligible because of East Germany, but SPD and Greens have still made things worse.

I really hope CDU will win.

[Middle-aged Europe]

No, but EU membership of Turkey will do.

Yes, in the way that the CDU has recently announced that they´ll have to accept the EU´s decision to begin talks with Turkey about a membership of the country.

At least this was the only time Turkey was mentioned in the campaign so far.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I was bored, so I made up a list of the likelihood of some events...




Likelihood of parties being elected to the Bundestag

SPD: very high

CDU/CSU: very high

Greens: high

FDP: very high

PDS (running alone): medium

WASG (running alone): very low

PDS/WASG (running together): high

NPD: very low

Other parties: extremely low


You want to know why the Greens´ chances are only "high" , while the FDP´s are "very high"...? Well, assuming that PDS and WASG will run together in some form it will get pretty crowded on the left end of the political spectrum. Plus, people are expecting SPD and Greens to lose. So, it´s just a wild guess. I hope Lewis doesn´t kill me for that one. But in the case that their are signs that the FDP will f**ck it up again like they did in 2002 I´ll lower their chances to "high" too.




Likelihood of governments/coalitions


CDU/CSU alone: medium

CDU/CSU + FDP: very high

CDU/CSU + SPD: medium

CDU/CSU + Greens: very low


SPD alone: very low

SPD + Greens: low

SPD + FDP: very low

SPD + PDS: very low

SPD + Greens + FDP: very low

SPD + Greens + PDS: low

SPD + CDU/CSU (SPD as senior partner in a grand coalition): very low




Likelihood of candidates becoming Chancellor:

Gerhard Schröder: low

Angela Merkel: very high




Likelihood of Germany being hit by an asteroid untll election day: medium




That´s a pretty subjective list and personally I´m unsure about two or three of these predicitions. So feel free to debate.

[minionofmidas]

I hope Lewis doesn´t kill me for that one.

Only if you buy the weapon and pay me train fare.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Apparently, PDS and WASG came to an agreement over the issue of an electoral alliance.

The WASG won´t run, instead WASG candidates will run on the PDS´s list, with the PDS renaming itself before the election. As possible names were mentioned Demokratische Linke-PDS (Democratic Left-PDS) or Vereinigte Linke-PDS (United Left-PDS). PDS and WASG plan to formally merge within the next two years. In addition, former SPD chair Oskar Lafontaine again confirmed his intention to run for PDS/WASG in this election.

It seems Schröder will have to face a two-front-war in the next months...

[minionofmidas]

United Left. Sounds cool. Sounds Atlasian.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sounds Atlasian.

My thought exactly. Atlasia should sue the PDS for stealing the name.

[minionofmidas]

Unfortunately the Spanish commies have had it for longer...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Unfortunately the Spanish commies have had it for longer...

Not only the Spanish:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Left

[minionofmidas]

"Das angestrebte Linksbündnis aus PDS und WASG kann sich laut einer aktuellen Umfrage gute Chancen bei einer vorgezogenen Bundestagswahl ausrechnen.
Laut ZDF-Politbarometer könnten sich 18 Prozent der Wahlberechtigten vorstellen, ein solches Linksbündnis zu wählen. Für 79 Prozent käme dies nicht in Frage. Dabei ziehen 15 Prozent der SPD- und 21 Prozent der Grünen-Anhänger eine solche Wahlentscheidung in Betracht, im Vergleich zu sieben Prozent der Unions- und neun Prozent der FDP-Anhänger."

In English, in brief: 18% of voters consider it imaginable to ever vote for such a new far-left party (not at all the same thing as intend to vote for it): 21% of Green voters, 15% of SPD voters, 9% of FDP voters (), 7% of CDU/CSU voters. I'd like to see a regional breakdown on these last two.

[Middle-aged Europe]

... 9% of FDP voters () ...

Those hideous communist libertarians...


Frankly, I see the PDS/WASG in about the same range like the Greens or FDP, perhaps something between 5% and 10%, at best. But who knows what will happen the next months...

[Angel of Death]

This is at least as much bad news for Merkel as it is for Schroeder. With the Leftist combo party surpassing the 5% treshold, what are the chances that CDU/CSU+FDP won't get an absolute majority?

[Jake]

I believe the latest polls look something like this:

CDU/CSU   45%
SPD           30%
FDP             8%
Greens        7%
PDS             5%

Looks pretty good for the right if they can retain those numbers. Translates to around 330 seats for FDP/CDU/CSU and a solid majority.

[Middle-aged Europe]

This is at least as much bad news for Merkel as it is for Schroeder.

Not necessarily for Merkel, but for Westerwelle and the FDP.

With the Leftist combo party surpassing the 5% treshold, what are the chances that CDU/CSU+FDP won't get an absolute majority?

Well, it´s a possibility. Can´t say how likely this it. At the moment CDU/CSU and FDP seem so strong that even with the PDS/WASG in the Bundestag they would get a majority. IF it happens though, we´ll almost certainly see a grand coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD)... it´s always the last option when everything else fails.



But it also seems that not everyone in the WASG is very happy with the deal their leadership made with the PDS. At least there was some opposition to the electoral alliance in the few last days.

There´s also still disagreement between PDS and WASG over the name. The PDS leadership announced yesterday they´ll rename their party into "Democratic Left - PDS". The problem is that the WASG has always insisted on dropping the letters "PDS". We will have to see which of the two parties backs down.

The WASG leadership will meet today to discuss these problems and we´ll probably know more this evening.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The WASG leadership has just approved the outcome of the negotiations with the PDS and they will now proceed as planned. The main obstacle is still the name of the party. They oppose any name which contains the "PDS".

Personally, I would prefer "Gregor´s and Oskar´s Monster Raving Loony Party".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They could try DPS

[minionofmidas]

They could try DPS

That was the Saarland state FDP's name in the 50`s and 60's!

[jimrtex]

Where can I find a description of the German electoral system?

[minionofmidas]

How detailed do you want it?
Here's an overview of relevant law (in German)