German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[minionofmidas]

This is indeed very un-German to not have something caught up in bureaucracy, but instead to push something ahead. I don't see how this will benefit Schroeder though. Does he want to use the CDU's momentum against himself? Most of the German economic problems were caused by Kohl's (CDU) rushing re-unification, but it took the voters eight years to realize that as well. Some sort of reform is obviously needed, but as an opposition party, the CDU hasn't done any opposing at all! In 2002, the CDU actually got a fraction of a percent more votes than the SPD, but it was their coalition that saved the SPD.

No...SPD was just barely ahead of CDU+CSU. Not that it matters, it wouldn't have been enough to govern on without the Greens' lead over the FDP.

There's all this talk about "seeking a decision", "breaking the Bundesrat deadlock by seeing whom the people really prefer" and such...ridiculous. The question was answered in 2002. It's irrelevant as long as you can't motivate people in the state elections as well.

As to the CDU being seen as more competent in questions of unemployment: statistical blip. 39% of voters say that. 18% say the SPD is. Remainder says noone is. Explanation: CDU supporters liespin. Half of SPD supporters liespin.

[minionofmidas]

I have just sent an email to the Federal President, urging him to refuse new elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Question: why do you think they'll calling the elections now?

[minionofmidas]

Question: why do you think they'll calling the elections now?

I do not know.
Well I have some ideas, and most of them have been mentioned here, but it doesn't make sense at all really.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some news:

--> The election will most likely be held on September 18.

--> Apparently some "renegade" MPs from the Greens and the SPD are trying to prevent early elections by appealing to the Constitutional Court (Schröder´s plan to "fake" a defeat in the vote of confidence in order to make early elections possible is controversial among constitutional experts). We will see... at the moment I would say that this attempt to prevent the election is doomed to fail.




Candidates for Chancellor

SPD: Gerhard Schröder, incumbent chancellor

CDU/CSU: Angela Merkel, chairwoman of the CDU and leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag


Top candidates of the minor parties

Greens: Joschka Fischer, vice chancellor and foreign minister

FDP: Guido Westerwelle, chairman of the FDP

PDS: no one yet, but it seems the party is trying to recruit the former PDS leader and former deputy mayor of Berlin Gregor Gysi as their candidate for this election. Gysi is probably the most known as well as the most popular PDS politician in Germany. The only problem is that Gysi´s health was often in a bad condition in recent months. So, we will have to see wether he´s going to run or not.


It´s noteworthy that except for the CDU/CSU and the PDS these are exactly the same candidates than in 2002.

[WMS]

Sounds like a good explanation to a very surprising development.
Schröder generally acts best, when he's under pressure...

I think he will try to make it a personality contest:
Schröder/Fischer vs. "GWB buddy" Merkel/"Political lightweight" Westerwelle (FDP chairman)

I fully expect the parties of the left to engage in anti-Americanism during the campaign like they did last time. Whether it will work this time...

[Middle-aged Europe]

I fully expect the parties of the left to engage in anti-Americanism during the campaign like they did last time.

No, not really. Not unless Bush decides to bomb Iran within the next four months or something like this.

Theoretically, the question whether German troops should be send to Iraq or not could play a role though. It would be wise for Merkel to rule this possibility out from day one of her campaign. No German politician does himself a favor by promising to send troops anywhere, no matter whether its Iraq, Afghanistan, Spain, or Luxembourg.
Instead I expect the SPD´s campaign to be based on something like "the CDU will completely destroy the welfare state, so vote for the lesser evil: us".

So again: Immigration (especially "turkish immigrants"), will only play a secondary role, if at all. Relations to the United States or foreign policy will only play a secondary role, if at all. "It´s the economy, stupid."

[Notre Dame rules!]

I fully expect the parties of the left to engage in anti-Americanism during the campaign like they did last time.

No, not really. Not unless Bush decides to bomb Iran within the next four months or something like this.

Theoretically, the question whether German troops should be send to Iraq or not could play a role though. It would be wise for Merkel to rule this possibility out from day one of her campaign. No German politician does himself a favor by promising to send troops anywhere, no matter whether its Iraq, Afghanistan, Spain, or Luxembourg.
Instead I expect the SPD´s campaign to be based on something like "the CDU will completely destroy the welfare state, so vote for the lesser evil: us".

So again: Immigration (especially "turkish immigrants"), will only play a secondary role, if at all. Relations to the United States or foreign policy will only play a secondary role, if at all. "It´s the economy, stupid."

well, if it's to be 'the economy stupid,' then it should guarantee another in a string CDU/CSU/FDP  victories.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, via low low low turnout. The left will probably need to keep turnout up at 80% to win...and I don't see it right now. I just don't. Plus of course they need to keep WASG down...they scored 2.2% in NRW without any sort of TV presence.

[Middle-aged Europe]

well, if it's to be 'the economy stupid,' then it should guarantee another in a string CDU/CSU/FDP  victories.

Schröder was originally elected in 1998 because of "It´s the economy, stupid". But you´re probably right...

In the end this election will be centered around the question who of the two major candidates has the better "managerial qualities" and how far reforms of the welfare state should go, with the CDU/CSU proposing a Thatcher-like policy and the SPD presenting itself as the "social alternative" (= the lesser evil). And it will certainly be fun to see how the labour wing of the CDU will react on Merkel´s reform proposals (especially AFTER the election).

It also seems that the SPD is now hoping to receive enough votes to enforce a grand coalition, after having stabbed the Greens in the back. On sunday the SPD didn´t inform the Greens about calling early elections. Today the SPD declared that they don´t want to run together with the Greens as a coalition this time. Considering that CDU/CSU and FDP already have agreed on a coalition it´s doubtful that the SPD´s plan will work.

Plus of course they need to keep WASG down...they scored 2.2% in NRW without any sort of TV presence.

Apparently, Oskar Lafontaine thinks about the possibilty to be a candidate for the WASG, if the WASG and the PDS agree to run together. A Gysi/Lafontaine ticket would a hard nut to crack for the SPD.

For those of you who are not familiar with every German splinter party:
The WASG is a left-wing split from the SPD, founded by SPD and labour union activists who disagreed with Schröder´s reforms. And Oskar Lafontaine is a former SPD chairman (and short-time finance minister in Schröder´s first cabinet) who often critizised these reforms as well.

And speaking about the unions... they have declared today not to support the SPD this time. It seems Schröder stands alone. IF Gysi and Lafontaine are really going to run we will almost certainly see a CDU/FDP victory as well as a very strong result for PDS/WASG.

[minionofmidas]

Federal election law has some weird things to say on parties running joint lists, though. Basically the easiest way to do that is for the PDS to run WASG candidates and WASG activists campaigning for the PDS - without the name WASG appearing anywhere on the ticket.
Problem with that is that WASG would then receive no government campaign money...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Federal election law has some weird things to say on parties running joint lists, though. Basically the easiest way to do that is for the PDS to run WASG candidates and WASG activists campaigning for the PDS - without the name WASG appearing anywhere on the ticket.
Problem with that is that WASG would then receive no government campaign money...

Yeah, that´s the same problem NPD and DVU were facing.

Perhaps the WASG will have to decide whether they run alone without the support from the PDS or Lafontaine, but receiving some campaign money or running together with the PDS, getting extra support from Lafontaine, and finally some of their members into the Bundestag.

But we will see... it´s too early too say what exactly will happen over the next four months. Maybe neither Gysi nor Lafontaine will be a candidate in the end. The only thing I can say that it will be certainly interesting.

[minionofmidas]

Federal election law has some weird things to say on parties running joint lists, though. Basically the easiest way to do that is for the PDS to run WASG candidates and WASG activists campaigning for the PDS - without the name WASG appearing anywhere on the ticket.
Problem with that is that WASG would then receive no government campaign money...

Yeah, that´s the same problem NPD and DVU were facing.

Perhaps the WASG will have to decide whether they run alone without the support from the PDS or Lafontaine, but receiving some campaign money or running together with the PDS, getting extra support from Lafontaine and finally some of their members into the Bundestag.

But we will see... it´s too early too say what exactly will happen over the next four years.

Or months.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Or months.

Yes, that´s what I meant. The recent events were certainly to confusing for me.

[Middle-aged Europe]

And Lafontaine has just announced his attention to leave the SPD.

[minionofmidas]

...and to run for WASG and/or PDS, if they want him to.

[WMS]

I fully expect the parties of the left to engage in anti-Americanism during the campaign like they did last time.

No, not really. Not unless Bush decides to bomb Iran within the next four months or something like this.

I don't think that's going to happen - NW Pakistan intervention is more likely than that - but the year isn't over yet, so who knows?

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What? You aren't going to send troops to Luxembourg? How disappointing...

And BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO to the PDS & WASG!

[CO-OWL]

If PDS/WASG could mobilize enough frustrated SPD voters who would stay home otherwise, this might be the only chance for the SPD to be at least the junior partner in a grand coalition...
But first let's see whether PDS and WASG can really cooperate. There's very little time for negotiations and building a joint organization.

[Middle-aged Europe]

But first let's see whether PDS and WASG can really cooperate. There's very little time for negotiations and building a joint organization.

Yes, the PDS has confirmed this too now.

We will see whether a) the PDS changes its mind, b) Lafontaine runs for the PDS, c) Lafontaine runs for the WASG, or d) Lafontaine doesn´t run at all in the end, because the alliance between PDS and WASG he aimed for didn´t came into existence.

Could still be possible that WASG candidates (including Lafontaine) are simply running on the PDS´s list.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Going by the old Reagan line "Are you better off today than you were four years ago,"   where is Germany today?  I know that unemployment is at or near postwar record highs, but what about inflation, rate of GDP growth, interest rates and the like, as compared to just prior to the last election?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This makes perfect sense for Schroeder, if not for the SPD.  If Schroeder tries to serve out a full term, he'll be giving internal opponents within the party a chance to kick him out before the elections.  Now they won't have that time and so if Schroeder can eke out a win he'll have the political capital to stay in charge.  If he loses the election, he probably doesn't go any sooner than he would have any way.

[skybridge]

What's up with all this talk about the PDS? It's very doubtful they'll make any difference. The grand coalition of extreme right-wing parties has better chances of benefitting from voter disillusionment.

[minionofmidas]

They did very badly in NRW...

[Middle-aged Europe]

What's up with all this talk about the PDS? It's very doubtful they'll make any difference. The grand coalition of extreme right-wing parties has better chances of benefitting from voter disillusionment.

Nope. NPD/DVU should be glad when they receive 1% of the vote. The PDS, on the other hand, has a real chance to get back into the Bundestag. Especially if they manage to get Gysi and/or Lafontaine on their ticket. Each man alone could mean a real boost for the party.

Going by the old Reagan line "Are you better off today than you were four years ago,"   where is Germany today?  I know that unemployment is at or near postwar record highs, but what about inflation, rate of GDP growth, interest rates and the like, as compared to just prior to the last election?

They´ve recently changed the statistical method of counting the number of umemployed people. Under the new method the number is generally higher than under the old one. As a result the unemployment rate has artificially climbed to a new record high. So, comparisons are hard to make. I don´t know if there´s a site where the current unemployment rate is converted into the old counting method, so that comparisons are possible.

http://www.destatis.de/e_home.htm has lots of official statistical data (in English). Perhaps you will find there what you want to know.

[minionofmidas]

What's up with all this talk about the PDS? It's very doubtful they'll make any difference. The grand coalition of extreme right-wing parties has better chances of benefitting from voter disillusionment.

Nope. NPD/DVU should be glad when they receive 1% of the vote. The PDS, on the other hand, has a real chance to get back into the Bundestag. Especially if they manage to get Gysi and/or Lafontaine on their ticket. Each man alone could mean a real boost for the party.

1%? You're being very optimistic (pessimistic for them). I don't see how they can crack 5%, but 1% should not be a problem.
As for the left...Gysi's said he doesn't believe in an alliance getting forged. He says there's not enough time. EMNID says such an alliance could poll up to 8%.