Chilean municipal election- October 23, 2016

[seb_pard]

We have in Chile in October 23 the municipal election, the first since the presidential one in 2013. This election is very useful to measure the political climate in the country, especially with the current corruption scandals in both coalitions (Penta, Soquimich, Caval, etc.) which are leading to approval ratings of just 21% for the government (Nueva Mayoria) and 12% for the opposition (Chile Vamos).
 
Chile is divided into 346 communes (with 37 being part of Santiago). Every commune is ruled by a mayor and a council (the number of the council members depends on the commune population) elected in separate elections (but on the same day).

To analysis the political scenario is better to look the results of the council election, since in the mayoral candidate is more important the popularity of the candidate (and political machine behind him) than the political compass, which is the main reason there are Caudillos in many communes (some of them very corrupt, one example is Jorge Soria in Iquique).


The result of the 2012 council election was the following (by party with current coalitions)

New Majority
  Communist Party (PC) + Citizen Left (IC) 6.4% of popular vote (105 councilmembers)
  Party For Democracy (PPD) 9.9% (277)
  Social Democrat Radical Party (PRSD) 5.7% (126)
  Christian Democratic Party (DC) 15.07% (391)
  Socialist Party (PS) 12.24% (269)
  Broad Social Movement (MAS) 1.18% (12)

Chile Vamos
  National Renewal (RN) 15.72% (409)
  Independent Democratic Union (UDI) 17.15% (423).
  Independent Regional Party (PRI) 7.63% (136)

Others
  Independents 0.99% (5)
  Equality Party (PI) 0.81% (1)
  Progressive Party (PRO) 4.52% (45)
  Humanist Party (PH) 1.91% (20)
  Strength of the North (FN) 0.51% (6).

Things that might affect the results:
1) Corruption scandals.
2) The emergence of new political parties on the left and the right.
3) The low popularity of the reforms (educational, labor and tax).

Sources to read about chile (all in spanish):
http://www.emol.com (Largest chilean newspaper, right wing)
http://www.elmostrador.cl (online newspaper, left wing)
http://www.latercera.cl (second largest newspaper, right wing, although more moderate than emol).

[seb_pard]

In less than 20 minutos we are gonna to hear the first results. If you wanna see the counting process check some chilean channel.

Any question just ask. I'm gonna try to explain some scandals (The Servel one is very serious) later

[Lumine]

Astounding shocker in Valparaiso with the preliminary results, the Nueva Mayoria and Chile Vamos candidates hover around 20% each, with young independent Jorge Sharp (from IA, one of the new parties from the student movement) taking an astounding lead with more than 50% of the vote.

Also, abstention seems even higher than expected, and Chile Vamos seems to be doing very well across Santiago.

[Lumine]

Valparaiso aside, Chile Vamos scores major comebacks on several of the largest Mayoralties and is rather unexpectedly leading the Nueva Mayoria on the overall national vote on Mayors. Only a minor part of the Councilors vote has been counted, although that one has Nueva Mayoria ahead by 4-5%.

It's tough to declare a clear winner between both considering the actual party vote seems to favor Nueva Mayoria, but Chile Vamos will be helped enormously by winning most of the crucial mayoralties. Electoral analysis will take a while given the level of abstention, but regarding the Presidential race this likely bolsters Sebastian Piñera and hurts Ricardo Lagos a bit.

It seems electoral participation may be around 35%.

[aross]

Excellent to see more Chilean coverage here, massive thanks to both of you.

A more general question perhaps, but how would you currently classify the parties of Nueva Mayoría or the left in general in terms of a left-right scale (or whatever other one you feel is more relevant, naturally)?

How has the student movement developed since 2011? How has it participated in the political process so far, and is this likely to change?

[Lumine]

President Bachelet has conceded defeat and most analysts seem to agree that Chile Vamos has won the day against the odds. Considering how hopeless the Chilean right looked during 2014 and particularly 2015 it's quite a noteworthy accomplishment, and personally I'm quite encouraged by the results tonight. It seems 2017 might be winnable after all for the right!

Excellent to see more Chilean coverage here, massive thanks to both of you.

A more general question perhaps, but how would you currently classify the parties of Nueva Mayoría or the left in general in terms of a left-right scale (or whatever other one you feel is more relevant, naturally)?

How has the student movement developed since 2011? How has it participated in the political process so far, and is this likely to change?

It's not as easy as it sounds as many parties seem to differentiate each other more on basis of personalities and style rather than policy, but if you'd had to rate them from right to left I would say:

Partido Democrata Cristiano (PDC) --> Moderate vaguely center-left Christian Democrats
Partido por la Democracia (PPD) --> The most vague, seems to be center-left with a liberal touch
Partido Radical Social Democrata (PRSD) --> Social democrats
Partido Socialista (PS) --> Technically Socialist, although PS is surprisingly moderate at times   
Izquierda Ciudadana (IC) --> Sort of a Christian Left
Movimiento Amplio Social (MAS) --> Socialist, inspired in Bolivia and Venezuela among others
Partido Comunista (PC) --> The Chilean Communists, although again, more moderate than what one would expect

Although it should be noted MAS and IC are internally divided on whether to remain in the Nueva Mayoria. Likewise, the Communists and the Christian Democrats can't stand each other, so it remains to be seen whether they can find enough common ground to remain in the same coalition.

You can say the student movement has both won and lost influence. It has clearly won a niche in the political discourse with several student leaders elected to Congress in 2013, and Sharp's triumph in Valparaiso proves that while there are many different parties and movements that come from the student movement (including Giorgio Jackson's Revolution Democratica, Gabriel Boric's Autonomistas, and many who joined PC like Camila Vallejos and Karol Cariola) they are relevant in the public debate and stand a very good chance at forming a new political force aside from Nueva Mayoria.

On the other hand, the decision of many in the student movement to ally with Nueva Mayoria through Bachelet's second term has clearly divided the overall movement and led to significant strife, which I've seen myself running as a candidate in a university election. Indeed, the university students have led strikes through 2013, 2015 and more recently this year in a so called "student offensive", all of which who failed in a rather resounding way, with polling by this year showing a significant growth in the negative perception of the movement (it being viewed in a very, very positive light in 2011).

So you might say a lot depends on next year, and whether the non Nueva Mayoria left movements and parties can indeed unite in a bloc to take advantage of their new strengths. There has been some discussion in that sense, although it seems most of it was left until after the municipal election (in which you had several different lists for different parts of the left). So one has to wonder whether the Chilean old left and new left will more or less unite again as they partially did with Bachelet, or whether they'll finally compete against each other in an all out conflict.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

http://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/2016/10/24/827969/Conoce-cuantos-alcaldes-resultaron-electos-por-coaliciones-y-partidos.html

[aross]

President Bachelet has conceded defeat and most analysts seem to agree that Chile Vamos has won the day against the odds. Considering how hopeless the Chilean right looked during 2014 and particularly 2015 it's quite a noteworthy accomplishment, and personally I'm quite encouraged by the results tonight. It seems 2017 might be winnable after all for the right!

Excellent to see more Chilean coverage here, massive thanks to both of you.

A more general question perhaps, but how would you currently classify the parties of Nueva Mayoría or the left in general in terms of a left-right scale (or whatever other one you feel is more relevant, naturally)?

How has the student movement developed since 2011? How has it participated in the political process so far, and is this likely to change?

Partido Democrata Cristiano (PDC) --> Moderate vaguely center-left Christian Democrats
Partido por la Democracia (PPD) --> The most vague, seems to be center-left with a liberal touch
Partido Radical Social Democrata (PRSD) --> Social democrats
Partido Socialista (PS) --> Technically Socialist, although PS is surprisingly moderate at times   
Izquierda Ciudadana (IC) --> Sort of a Christian Left
Movimiento Amplio Social (MAS) --> Socialist, inspired in Bolivia and Venezuela among others
Partido Comunista (PC) --> The Chilean Communists, although again, more moderate than what one would expect

Thanks, I asked about that mainly because I'd been told the PS was these days well to the right of all but perhaps the PDC from a maybe less than reliable source. Brilliant post otherwise too.

So, right now, what does the likely line-up for 2017 look like? I suppose the new electoral system will make a difference.

[Lumine]

President Bachelet has conceded defeat and most analysts seem to agree that Chile Vamos has won the day against the odds. Considering how hopeless the Chilean right looked during 2014 and particularly 2015 it's quite a noteworthy accomplishment, and personally I'm quite encouraged by the results tonight. It seems 2017 might be winnable after all for the right!

Excellent to see more Chilean coverage here, massive thanks to both of you.

A more general question perhaps, but how would you currently classify the parties of Nueva Mayoría or the left in general in terms of a left-right scale (or whatever other one you feel is more relevant, naturally)?

How has the student movement developed since 2011? How has it participated in the political process so far, and is this likely to change?

Partido Democrata Cristiano (PDC) --> Moderate vaguely center-left Christian Democrats
Partido por la Democracia (PPD) --> The most vague, seems to be center-left with a liberal touch
Partido Radical Social Democrata (PRSD) --> Social democrats
Partido Socialista (PS) --> Technically Socialist, although PS is surprisingly moderate at times   
Izquierda Ciudadana (IC) --> Sort of a Christian Left
Movimiento Amplio Social (MAS) --> Socialist, inspired in Bolivia and Venezuela among others
Partido Comunista (PC) --> The Chilean Communists, although again, more moderate than what one would expect

Thanks, I asked about that mainly because I'd been told the PS was these days well to the right of all but perhaps the PDC from a maybe less than reliable source. Brilliant post otherwise too.

So, right now, what does the likely line-up for 2017 look like? I suppose the new electoral system will make a difference.

There is a tentative line-up of candidates indeed, I think I'll open a thread for the presidential election.

[Velasco]

Valparaiso aside, Chile Vamos scores major comebacks on several of the largest Mayoralties and is rather unexpectedly leading the Nueva Mayoria on the overall national vote on Mayors. Only a minor part of the Councilors vote has been counted, although that one has Nueva Mayoria ahead by 4-5%.

It's tough to declare a clear winner between both considering the actual party vote seems to favor Nueva Mayoria, but Chile Vamos will be helped enormously by winning most of the crucial mayoralties. Electoral analysis will take a while given the level of abstention, but regarding the Presidential race this likely bolsters Sebastian Piñera and hurts Ricardo Lagos a bit.

It seems electoral participation may be around 35%.

According to El País, it was a "dark day" for Nueva Mayoría.

http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2016/10/24/america/1477277021_252068.html

Anyway with those turnout figures one could say that it wasn't a good day for democracy. Nearly 2/3 abstained: it's impressive. Is there any discusion in media or among politicians on this level of disengagement?

[Lumine]

Valparaiso aside, Chile Vamos scores major comebacks on several of the largest Mayoralties and is rather unexpectedly leading the Nueva Mayoria on the overall national vote on Mayors. Only a minor part of the Councilors vote has been counted, although that one has Nueva Mayoria ahead by 4-5%.

It's tough to declare a clear winner between both considering the actual party vote seems to favor Nueva Mayoria, but Chile Vamos will be helped enormously by winning most of the crucial mayoralties. Electoral analysis will take a while given the level of abstention, but regarding the Presidential race this likely bolsters Sebastian Piñera and hurts Ricardo Lagos a bit.

It seems electoral participation may be around 35%.

According to El País, it was a "dark day" for Nueva Mayoría.

http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2016/10/24/america/1477277021_252068.html

Anyway with those turnout figures one could say that it wasn't a good day for democracy. Nearly 2/3 abstained: it's impressive. Is there any discusion in media or among politicians on this level of disengagement?

Yep, the narrative today seems to be that the Nueva Mayoria has taken a heavy blow. Chile Vamos won the Mayor's national vote, on elected Mayors, on overall people to be governed and on six of the eight main mayoralties. In contrast, Nueva Mayoria won the counciliors vote and on elected counciliors, but the outlook is grim considering they fully expected to defeat the right despite taking a few losses. Many of these results were simply out of the question for La Moneda, so there's rising bitterness between the parties and the government.

But yes, abstention has been the main protagonist here. On one side, most people didn't really expected turnout to be higher than 40%, but the numbers are still concerning and most politicians have expressed that, that participation is a problem. The main debate seems to be more focused on whether to restore mandatory voting instead of voluntary, though.