ABC/WaPo national poll: Clinton 50% Trump 44%

[pbrower2a]

If Clinton's at 50% among registered voters, she's definitely below 50% with likely voters. I'd guess the likely vote is something like 49/48 Trump.

Count on a strong GOTV campaign intended to seek out new voters this time.

We can't say what a "likely voter" is. Someone who hasn't missed an election in sixty years might be less likely to vote (debility or death) then someone who turned 17 in October but has a strong interest in politics, someone who thinks of voting as a rite of passage.