ABC/WaPo national poll: Clinton 50% Trump 44%
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  ABC/WaPo national poll: Clinton 50% Trump 44%
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Author Topic: ABC/WaPo national poll: Clinton 50% Trump 44%  (Read 1567 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: December 15, 2015, 12:43:39 AM »

ABC/WaPo poll, conducted Dec. 10-13:

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-poll-dec-10-13-2015/1914/

among registered voters:

Clinton 50%
Trump 44%

among all adults:

Clinton 53%
Trump 40%
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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: December 15, 2015, 12:50:15 AM »

So Clinton's goal will be getting out as many people to the polls next fall, not for herself but for the downballot.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #2 on: December 15, 2015, 01:06:55 AM »

If Clinton's at 50% among registered voters, she's definitely below 50% with likely voters. I'd guess the likely vote is something like 49/48 Trump.
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King
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« Reply #3 on: December 15, 2015, 01:22:39 AM »

If Clinton's at 50% among registered voters, she's definitely below 50% with likely voters. I'd guess the likely vote is something like 49/48 Trump.

No such thing as likely voters a year out.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: December 15, 2015, 01:48:25 AM »

If Clinton's at 50% among registered voters, she's definitely below 50% with likely voters. I'd guess the likely vote is something like 49/48 Trump.

No such thing as likely voters a year out.

Indeed... like GE match-ups matter at this point.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2015, 03:28:44 PM »

Not too bad for Trump!
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EliteLX
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« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2015, 03:32:36 PM »


Down 6-10% nationwide before he even steps into a general campaign (especially for Trump..) is most definitely a horrible sign.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #7 on: December 16, 2015, 09:53:26 PM »


Down 6-10% nationwide before he even steps into a general campaign (especially for Trump..) is most definitely a horrible sign.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you stupidly and baselessly assume that his numbers would only go down, sure!
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EliteLX
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« Reply #8 on: December 16, 2015, 10:09:37 PM »
« Edited: December 16, 2015, 10:14:46 PM by EliteLX »


Down 6-10% nationwide before he even steps into a general campaign (especially for Trump..) is most definitely a horrible sign.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you stupidly and baselessly assume that his numbers would only go down, sure!

Trump's not going to benefit from being in a direct 1V1 with Hillary nationwide, Lief. She will shred him up and make him look like such a senseless fool with his comments he'll be permastuck with his go-to face. Hillary will establish a hate coalition of the youth, hispanics, blacks, and muslims like never before. He'll have no media on his side either. Tell you this Lief, his numbers aren't going up once he gets to the big boy stage.

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King
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« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2015, 01:45:08 PM »


Down 6-10% nationwide before he even steps into a general campaign (especially for Trump..) is most definitely a horrible sign.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you stupidly and baselessly assume that his numbers would only go down, sure!

Trump's not going to benefit from being in a direct 1V1 with Hillary nationwide, Lief. She will shred him up and make him look like such a senseless fool with his comments he'll be permastuck with his go-to face. Hillary will establish a hate coalition of the youth, hispanics, blacks, and muslims like never before. He'll have no media on his side either. Tell you this Lief, his numbers aren't going up once he gets to the big boy stage.



How exactly is this not going to happen with any other GOP candidate?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: December 17, 2015, 04:09:22 PM »
« Edited: December 17, 2015, 04:11:03 PM by OC »

Trump probably isnt down by this much. He will make it very close at the end. And inches within presidency. He is a Reformed GOPer.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #11 on: December 17, 2015, 04:48:48 PM »
« Edited: December 17, 2015, 05:11:52 PM by EliteLX »


Down 6-10% nationwide before he even steps into a general campaign (especially for Trump..) is most definitely a horrible sign.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you stupidly and baselessly assume that his numbers would only go down, sure!

Trump's not going to benefit from being in a direct 1V1 with Hillary nationwide, Lief. She will shred him up and make him look like such a senseless fool with his comments he'll be permastuck with his go-to face. Hillary will establish a hate coalition of the youth, hispanics, blacks, and muslims like never before. He'll have no media on his side either. Tell you this Lief, his numbers aren't going up once he gets to the big boy stage.



How exactly is this not going to happen with any other GOP candidate?

Because Hillary vs Trump is a big difference than Hillary vs Rubio. Trump can't make it five minutes without looking like an mentally incapable nimwit to everybody but his biggest fans, and Hillary has the charm to make it even worse. He also struggles immensely with discussing actual policy rather than rhetoric and when he's not in a GOP primary echo chamber Hillary will call him out for this big time and put him on the grill, and there will be no primary poll #'s to insult her with anymore, because this is no longer the Republican primary. The mechanics of Trump's strategy for success no longer works in the general election.

That's how.
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King
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« Reply #12 on: December 17, 2015, 05:22:51 PM »

Except Rubio has horribly out of touch positions that the Democrats can mock like they did with Romney AND still attach him to Trump AND he also has a very sketchy history in Florida.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #13 on: December 17, 2015, 05:28:34 PM »

Except Rubio has horribly out of touch positions that the Democrats can mock like they did with Romney AND still attach him to Trump AND he also has a very sketchy history in Florida.

Rubio's "out of touch" positions break back down into the simple left vs right political argument that empowers the elections and this very forum, so, can't comment such a broad subject here.

His character can't be attached to Trump and I'd argue a majority of national voters couldn't connect Donald and Marco. His history in Florida is for him to defend, whether that's sketchy or not is debatable.
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King
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« Reply #14 on: December 17, 2015, 07:37:42 PM »

Except Rubio has horribly out of touch positions that the Democrats can mock like they did with Romney AND still attach him to Trump AND he also has a very sketchy history in Florida.

Rubio's "out of touch" positions break back down into the simple left vs right political argument that empowers the elections and this very forum, so, can't comment such a broad subject here.

His character can't be attached to Trump and I'd argue a majority of national voters couldn't connect Donald and Marco. His history in Florida is for him to defend, whether that's sketchy or not is debatable.

Republicans are the ones on the losing streak in Presidential elections here. You can't just explain away issues where he holds positions opposite of a majority of voters as "well, political arguments." There's nothing about him that wasn't successfully used to scold Mitt Romney into defeat.

Rubio's character is also absolutely rotten to the core.  He has odd relationships in Florida to incredibly corrupt politicians, is completely bought and sold to the Florida for-profit education industry, is a generally lousy Senator of no accomplishment, and seems to have no real principles other than he wants to be President and will say whatever the donors want to make them happy. His campaign message is also bland, forgettable, and resonates with nobody under the age of 60. He looks good in pictures, so people think he must be a good guy, but Romney was photogenic as well.

The more people get to know Marco Rubio, the more they will not like what they find.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: December 21, 2015, 11:00:09 AM »

If Clinton's at 50% among registered voters, she's definitely below 50% with likely voters. I'd guess the likely vote is something like 49/48 Trump.

Count on a strong GOTV campaign intended to seek out new voters this time.

We can't say what a "likely voter" is. Someone who hasn't missed an election in sixty years might be less likely to vote (debility or death) then someone who turned 17 in October but has a strong interest in politics, someone who thinks of voting as a rite of passage.
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