Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[Holmes]

There's already a thread for this trash.

[Lief 🗽]

Ugh, are we really adding Overtime polls to the database? Dave Leip would be rolling over in his grave.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, probably not a good idea to add these even if they're showing what most others are showing.

[RI]

Yeah, probably not a good idea to add these even if they're showing what most others are showing.

They've been getting added for several weeks now. Worst case they turn out to be fraudulent, and we delete them.

[bigedlb]

Overtime Politics New Hampshire Released just now



Donald Trump 30%
John Kasich 15%
Marco Rubio 13%
Chris Christie 9%
Ted Cruz 9%
Jeb Bush 6%
Carly Fiorina 5%
Ben Carson 4%
Rand Paul 2%
Other 1%
Undecided 6%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yeah, probably not a good idea to add these even if they're showing what most others are showing.

They've been getting added for several weeks now. Worst case they turn out to be fraudulent, and we delete them.

Even if they're fraudulent, they're probably still closer closer to the mark than Gravis.

[Alcon]

This is coming from someone with no emotional attachment to the results of this primary:

These polls are incredibly sketchy.  The releases look like someone who's looking at polling releases and trying to duplicate their appearance, but missing nuances like age distribution on a caucus sample.  For someone who produces so many polls in so many jurisdictions, he acts like someone with very limited experience in the industry...or any political industry, for that matter.  He sounds like a guy with limited experience operating out of his basement, and that's not commensurate with the scale of operation he claims to be running.

I hate to malign someone over "bad vibes," but man there are a lot of things that just seem "off" here.  Even if there's not fraud going on, he's produced enough dubious subsample results to make me skeptical of the firm's competence.

Ockham's razor says fraud; nearly every other remotely plausible explanation says either fraud or substandard practices.

[Holmes]

This is coming from someone with no emotional attachment to the results of this primary:

These polls are incredibly sketchy.  The releases look like someone who's looking at polling releases and trying to duplicate their appearance, but missing nuances like age distribution on a caucus sample.  For someone who produces so many polls in so many jurisdictions, he acts like someone with very limited experience in the industry...or any political industry, for that matter.  He sounds like a guy with limited experience operating out of his basement, and that's not commensurate with the scale of operation he claims to be running.

I hate to malign someone over "bad vibes," but man there are a lot of things that just seem "off" here.  Even if there's not fraud going on, he's produced enough dubious subsample results to make me skeptical of the firm's competence.

Ockham's razor says fraud; nearly every other remotely plausible explanation says either fraud or substandard practices.

But it's more accurate than Gravis!

[bigedlb]

Overtime Politics schedule
1/17 IL
1/19 MN
1/22 NV
1/25 NC
1/28 OH
1/31 IA

[weixiaobao]

i am starting to see other sites referencing Overtime, like
https://johnkasich.com/blog-posts/overtime-politics-john-kasichs-new-hampshire-strength-reinforced-again/

But I doubt all those guys verified with the people on Overtime.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-in-illinois-by-11-points-51-40/

Hillary Clinton – 51%
Bernie Sanders – 40%
Martin O’Malley – 5%
Undecided – 3%

[bigedlb]

http://overtimepolitics.com/donald-trump-leads-marco-rubio-by-20-points-in-illinois-36-16/

Donald Trump – 36%
Marco Rubio  – 16%
Ted Cruz – 15%
Jeb Bush – 5%
Ben Carson – 5%
John Kasich – 5%
Carly Fiorina – 5%
Chris Christie – 3%
Rand Paul – 3%
Other – 2%
Undecided – 6%

[Lief 🗽]

http://overtimepolitics.com/donald-trump-leads-marco-rubio-by-20-points-in-illinois-36-16/

Donald Trump – 36%
Marco Rubio  – 16%
Ted Cruz – 15%
Jeb Bush – 5%
Ben Carson – 5%
John Kasich – 5%
Carly Fiorina – 5%
Chris Christie – 3%
Rand Paul – 3%
Other – 2%
Undecided – 6%

Damn, if this is true (big if), then it looks like TRUMP really did Cruz in on Thursday.

[Ljube]

http://overtimepolitics.com/donald-trump-leads-marco-rubio-by-20-points-in-illinois-36-16/

Donald Trump – 36%
Marco Rubio  – 16%
Ted Cruz – 15%
Jeb Bush – 5%
Ben Carson – 5%
John Kasich – 5%
Carly Fiorina – 5%
Chris Christie – 3%
Rand Paul – 3%
Other – 2%
Undecided – 6%

Damn, if this is true (big if), then it looks like TRUMP really did Cruz in on Thursday.

Yeah. I think Cruz is in freefall. Similar to what happened to Carson a while ago when TRUMP decided to deal with him.

[bigedlb]

Overtime Politics has Minnesota on Tuesday, and Nevada next Friday...

[Eraserhead]

http://overtimepolitics.com/donald-trump-leads-marco-rubio-by-20-points-in-illinois-36-16/

Donald Trump – 36%
Marco Rubio  – 16%
Ted Cruz – 15%
Jeb Bush – 5%
Ben Carson – 5%
John Kasich – 5%
Carly Fiorina – 5%
Chris Christie – 3%
Rand Paul – 3%
Other – 2%
Undecided – 6%

Damn, if this is true (big if), then it looks like TRUMP really did Cruz in on Thursday.

Yeah. I think Cruz is in freefall. Similar to what happened to Carson a while ago when TRUMP decided to deal with him.

We're gonna need some new Iowa polls to know for sure (and not ones from Overtime).

[Eraserhead]

Overtime Politics has Minnesota on Tuesday, and Nevada next Friday...

Damn, if I thought these were real polls, that would be exciting news!

[Holmes]

if this is true

[Lief 🗽]

if this is true

let me dream tho

[Ebsy]

According to the NYT exit polls, the Illinois Democratic Primary was:

Male: 42
Female: 58

White: 58
Black: 23
Latino: 16

According to Overtime Politics, it will be:

Male: 51(+9)
Female: 49(-9)

White: 71(+13)
Black: 15(-8)
Latino: 11(-5)

Guys, these polls are absolute junk.

[Broken System]

if this is true

let me dream tho

This is quite the low energy response. It lacks the normal Lief confidence. I expected something along the lines of "TRUMP is dominating over these low energy losers" or "The poll might not be real but TRUMP's domination is!"

[muon2]

http://overtimepolitics.com/donald-trump-leads-marco-rubio-by-20-points-in-illinois-36-16/

Donald Trump – 36%
Marco Rubio  – 16%
Ted Cruz – 15%
Jeb Bush – 5%
Ben Carson – 5%
John Kasich – 5%
Carly Fiorina – 5%
Chris Christie – 3%
Rand Paul – 3%
Other – 2%
Undecided – 6%

The analysis in the link is a bit junky, too. It reads like IL is a winner-takes-all primary for all 69 delegates. The statewide vote doesn't apply to the 54 delegates who are elected individually, three for each congressional district.

[Former Democrat]

naturally the black&hispanic primary voters will go down without Obama on the ballot

[Alcon]

naturally the black&hispanic primary voters will go down without Obama on the ballot

Why Hispanic voters?  Clinton pretty decisively won Hispanics in 2008.  It's not like there is some unified brown vote, or many Hispanic voters showed up just to vote against a black guy.

[This account no longer in use.]

Overtime? More like OverHYPE.