Are there any "Safe" Lib Dem Seats

[Rural Radical]

IMO most Lib Dem seats are won by large personal votes.

Any thoughts

[Peter]

There a couple these days:

In the SW, I think they can rely on St Ives and Yeovil for a while yet.

Oxford West and Abingdon doesn't really like Dr Harris, so I'd say he wins on a personal vote neutral perspective - so that seat is probably quite safe too.

I think we can start classifying a few of the North Scotland seats as Safe Lib Dem too, though there is certainly a personal vote involved.

[patrick1]

Having spent a good deal of time in Twickenham and Richmond area I would say those seats are safe LibDem

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously they're aren't many of them... it's also important to remember that most of the Liberal M.P's who win via a large personal vote lose eventually; people get sick of them in the end and they have no machine to fall back on (ala Godsiff or Hodge). Good examples include Thorpe and Freud. I tend to think that the same would have happend to Wainwright and Alton if they'd run again (I'm certain about Alton). That sort of thing is especially deadly if they're seat is a low turnout seat; if there's a sharp rise in turnout that sort of M.P (Simon Hughes is a good example) is almost always a gonner.

As for seats that are safe for the LibDems as a party...

Orkney & Shetland (easily the safest LibDem seat in the entire U.K... and has been since the '50's), St Ives (swung massivly Liberal as a backlash to incomers. George has a large personal vote, but it's still safe for the party methinks), Truro & St Austell (Liberal since the '70's and the current M.P is a grey blob and he wins by a lot...), Yeovil, Montgomery (Opik *does* have a large personal vote though), Oxwab (they've elected Evan Harris three times in a row. How many other places would do *that*?), Sheffield Hallam, Hazel Grove, Twickenham (I *think*).

Scotland is harder to workout; that Borders seat is pretty safe, as is Edinburgh West and I'm fairly sure about Fife NE... but it's harder to workout with some of the others... I suspect that Ross, Skye & Lochaber is a safe seat for the party, but there hasn't been an election without local boy made good Kennedy on the ballot for over 20 years. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross is (extremely) safe for Thurso but when he retires it'll be hard to tell (unless they pick another Sinclair). Mind you, that's a while off yet. Gordon is only safe for Bruce I think... although who'll be the main opposition when he retires is hard to figure out.

[patrick1]

Al, What are your thoughts about Twickenham/Richmond.  I've spent like a total of a month in that area.  It seems like a pretty cloistered yuppie area- of the brand that wold vote LD

[Bono]

Obviously they're aren't many of them... it's also important to remember that most of the Liberal M.P's who win via a large personal vote lose eventually; people get sick of them in the end and they have no machine to fall back on (ala Godsiff or Hodge). Good examples include Thorpe and Freud. I tend to think that the same would have happend to Wainwright and Alton if they'd run again (I'm certain about Alton). That sort of thing is especially deadly if they're seat is a low turnout seat; if there's a sharp rise in turnout that sort of M.P (Simon Hughes is a good example) is almost always a gonner.

As for seats that are safe for the LibDems as a party...

Orkney & Shetland (easily the safest LibDem seat in the entire U.K... and has been since the '50's), St Ives (swung massivly Liberal as a backlash to incomers. George has a large personal vote, but it's still safe for the party methinks), Truro & St Austell (Liberal since the '70's and the current M.P is a grey blob and he wins by a lot...), Yeovil, Montgomery (Opik *does* have a large personal vote though), Oxwab (they've elected Evan Harris three times in a row. How many other places would do *that*?), Sheffield Hallam, Hazel Grove, Twickenham (I *think*).

Scotland is harder to workout; that Borders seat is pretty safe, as is Edinburgh West and I'm fairly sure about Fife NE... but it's harder to workout with some of the others... I suspect that Ross, Skye & Lochaber is a safe seat for the party, but there hasn't been an election without local boy made good Kennedy on the ballot for over 20 years. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross is (extremely) safe for Thurso but when he retires it'll be hard to tell (unless they pick another Sinclair). Mind you, that's a while off yet. Gordon is only safe for Bruce I think... although who'll be the main opposition when he retires is hard to figure out.

What about Cornwall?
That seems about as LibDem as it can get.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah... that area is where all the media types that don't live in Crouch End et al live (all the tech. people live in Hammersmith though) If Richmond was just a seat on it's own again it would be a safe LibDems seat; it's got a fairly Tory-ish area from Kingston upon Thames in it though. I tend to think of it as more a safe-ish seat than anything else. Not sure whether Twickenham is safe or just safe-ish... Cable has a fairly large personal vote IIRC.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What about Cornwall?
That seems about as LibDem as it can get.

Truro & St Austell and St Ives are both in Cornwall. As for the other Cornish seats, North and South East are both LD leaning marginals by nature, while Falmouth & Camborne is kinda confused; it's a three way marginal due to the tiny Cornish tin field.

[Peter]

What about Cornwall?
That seems about as LibDem as it can get.

Truro & St Austell and St Ives are both in Cornwall. As for the other Cornish seats, North and South East are both LD leaning marginals by nature, while Falmouth & Camborne is kinda confused; it's a three way marginal due to the tiny Cornish tin field.

You realise also that Cornwall is getting six seats at the next election:

Camborne & Redruth
North Cornwall
SE Cornwall
St Austell & Newquay
St Ives
Truro & Falmouth

Quite what this will do to the the safeness of these seats, I'm not sure.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You realise also that Cornwall is getting six seats at the next election:

I wasn't until you mentioned it just then

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I'll have a looksee

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looking at the number of Labour councillers it seems that Camborne & Redruth looks like a better Labour prospect than the former Falmouth & Cambourne.

The LibDems don't seem to have been too happy about Truro and St Austell being split.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think that as far as Tories are anti-Scotland party Gordon and West Aberdeen will be LibDem (relatively strong  presence in local elections  too)

West Aberdeenshire might class as a safe seat now actually... Gordon doesn't (except for Bruce) but I seems to lean LibDem now.

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If the new guy does his constituency work properly it will. Without a personal vote it's a LibDem marginal; with one it's should be safe.

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True. A lot are pretty marginal though (in theory in some cases).

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Seems to have done. Could be a tight marginal for years now...

[Rural Radical]

MO lIB dEM gAINS FOLLOW 2 ROUTES. eITHER THEY DEVOLOP INTO A TEMPORARY SAFE SEAT (i.e. North Norfolk) or they fall by the wayside (i.e. Guildford).

With regards to Cornwall. Camborne and Redruth should be a Labour Pick up, especially when the Proteset vores come back.

[minionofmidas]

I think that as far as Tories are anti-Scotland party Gordon and West Aberdeen will be LibDem (relatively strong  presence in local elections  too)

West Aberdeenshire might class as a safe seat now actually... Gordon doesn't (except for Bruce) but I seems to lean LibDem now.

Of course the new Gordon is not that much like the old Gordon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course the new Gordon is not that much like the old Gordon.

Actually it's like the old (pre-97) Gordon but not the old (pre-05) Gordon.

[Rural Radical]

Opinion on current Lib Dem seats :

St Ives : Safe
Falmouth & Camborne : Marginal
Truro & St Austell : Safe
Cornwall North : Marginal
Cornwall South East : Marginal

[Rural Radical]

Opinion on current Lib Dem seats :

SOUTH WEST
St Ives : Safe
Falmouth & Camborne : Marginal
Truro & St Austell : Safe
Cornwall North : Marginal
Cornwall South East : Marginal
Devon North : Marginal
Teignbridge : Marginal
Torbay : Marginal
Dorset Mid : Marginal
Yeovil : Safe
Somerton & Frome :  Super Marginal
Taunton : Marginal
Bath : Safe
Bristol West : Marginal
Northavon : Safe
Cheltenham : Marginal

SOUTH EAST

Winchester : Safe
Eastleigh : Marginal
Romsey : Super Marginal
Lewes : Safe
Oxford West : Safe

LONDON

Kingston : Safe
Twickenham : Safe
Richmond : Safe
Sutton & Cheam : Marginal
Carshalton : Marginal
Brent East : Marginal
Hornsey & Wood Green : Marginal

EASTERN

Colchester : SAFE
Cambridge : SAFE
Norfolk North : SAFE

WEST MIDLANDS

Hereford : Super Marginal
Solihull : Super Marginal
Yardley : Marginal

EAST MIDLANDS

Chesterfield : Marginal

NORTH WEST

Southport : Safe
Hazel Grove : Safe
Cheadle : Marginal
Manchester Withington : Super Marginal
Rochdale : Marginal
Westmorland : Super Marginal

YORKSHIRE

Sheffield Hallam : Safe
Leeds North West : Marginal
Harrogate : Marginal

NORTH EAST

Berwick : SAFE

WALES

Cardiff Central : SAFE
Montgomery : SAFE
Brecon : Marginal
Ceredigion : Super Marginal

SCOTLAND

Berwickshire : Marginal
Aberdeenshire West : Safe
Gordon : Safe
Inverness : Marginal
Ross : Safe
Caithness : Safe
Argyl & Bute : SAFE
Dunbartonshire East : Marginal
Edinburgh West : Safe
Fife North East : Safe
Orkney : Safe

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think Rochdale is more a super marginal; only reason why the new M.P won is because of one of the dirtiest campaigns outside a seat that Disrespect where running in...