What happens to the GOP if Hillary wins 2016 and 2020?

[5280]

What happens to the GOP if Hillary wins in 2016 and 2020? That's 16 years of Democratic control in the WH. Are there going to be some radical changes in the Republican party and party platform, and what will they do? Will there be Democratic fatigue setting in?

[Devils30]

I think the 2024 nominee would be more moderate with a libertarian streak.

[Asian Nazi]

They will change nothing because most people will still buy into the traditional narrative that "voter fatigue" is a thing that exists and that their victory in 2024 is inevitable.

Also while it is possible for libertarian Republicans to get elected (usually by downplaying their libertarian views), running on libertarianism is not a viable electoral strategy at the national level and will likely continue to be so unless America becomes a nation of 18 year old white boys.

[RINO Tom]

I'd say it depends on how Democrats govern (obviously).  If they overestimate their dominance/control/popularity and try to push the country too far left (especially fiscally), then I'd imagine Republicans will feel pretty comfortable uniting behind a campaign idea of "getting back to normal."  If Hillary is somehow wildly popular after two terms (highly unlikely), then there will probably be the same infighting about what to do.

[tallguy23]

A GOP version of Bill Clinton would win in 2024. That's 16 years of old crazy white people dying off and replaced by minorities and millennials.

[5280]

A GOP version of Bill Clinton would win in 2024. That's 16 years of old crazy white people dying off and replaced by minorities and millennials.

What makes you think that will happen?

[Sir Mohamed]

Depends on other election successes. Currently the GOP controls almost everything except the White House and the deep blue states (even not all of them; IL and MA have a GOP governor, NY a GOP State Senate) as well as the big cities.

If they keep majorties in congress, the governorships and most state legislatures, they won't change much. The question therefore is: What happens if these dominances fade away? I guess they will moderate themselfes and try to find ways, to outreach to minorites.

[ScottieF]

A GOP version of Bill Clinton would win in 2024. That's 16 years of old crazy white people dying off and replaced by minorities and millennials.

[5280]

Once all the Silent Generation and Baby Boomers die off in 20-40 years, the GOP will have to find a way to appeal with Gen X and Millennials. That's why I think a radical change in party platform is needed.

[Asian Nazi]

Once all the Silent Generation and Baby Boomers die off in 20-40 years, the GOP will have to find a way to appeal with Gen X and Millennials. That's why I think a radical change in party platform is needed.

The GOP's problem is less a generational one and more a racial one.  The generation gap is only as wide as it is because Millennials are so much more diverse than the Silent Generation.  The gap between white Silent Generation and white Millennial isn't that big and is liable to close a bit, but the GOP has shown no signs of being able to win minority voters of any generation.

[Crumpets]

GOP analysis after Clinton/Kaine beat King/Gohmert in 2020:

"Missing whites! Not conservative enough! Clintonphones!"

And repeat.

[Orser67]

The GOP's problem is less a generational one and more a racial one.  The generation gap is only as wide as it is because Millennials are so much more diverse than the Silent Generation.  The gap between white Silent Generation and white Millennial isn't that big and is liable to close a bit, but the GOP has shown no signs of being able to win minority voters of any generation.

True, but your post downplays the GOP's problem with young white millenials at least a little more than I would. Pew shows a 2 point GOP advantage among white millenials, while the GOP has at least a 9 point advantage with whites among each of the three other generations.

http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/

[5280]

20 years is the longest a Democrat was in office, FDR's election and Harry Truman, 1932-1952?  That would mean the Democrat president after Hillary Clinton elected in 2024 would have to perform horribly for a Republican to win in 2028 if comparing the two.

[Kingpoleon]

Presumably, someone like Elise Stefanik, Adam Kinzinger, or Sean Duffy will win the nomination and sweep over a Representative Ellison or Vice President Castro.

[TarHeelDem]

They lose to Clinton's VP in 2024 and 2028. By 2032 maybe they have the sense to nominate a quality nominee the American people can trust with the office of President of the United States.

[5280]

They lose to Clinton's VP in 2024 and 2028. By 2032 maybe they have the sense to nominate a quality nominee the American people can trust with the office of President of the United States.

By your standards, the Republican party would have to adopt left wing politics?

[Sumner 1868]

The key for any Republican success in the future depends on how first-wavers of Generation Z/Homeland/Alpha vote when they reach adulthood in a few years. If they are Republican, then the party will have a long-term counterpoint against the Democratic Millennial advantage.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The key for any Republican success in the future depends on how first-wavers of Generation Z/Homeland/Alpha vote when they reach adulthood in a few years. If they are Republican, then the party will have a long-term counterpoint against the Democratic Millennial advantage.

The Democratic Millennial advantage isn't as big as you think.  Yes, it's real (especially with the current 25-29/34 group), but the 18-24 group is pretty much on the national average (maaaaybe even a bit more conservative, controlling for race).  Additionally, it's verifiably false that young people are always liberal and old people always conservative, but I could easily imagine seeing some moderation in the group born in the 1980s and early 1990s (accepting that the fact that they were swept up in "Hope and Change '08" will make them much more liberal for life).

Politically speaking, however, those born in the mid and late 1990s (up to 1998 will be voting in 2016- and up to 2002! in 2020) are essentially a different generation.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

We're more likely to be abducted by aliens.

[5280]

How is generation Z (born post 1996) more conservative than the Millennial generation?

[Sumner 1868]

How is generation Z (born post 1996) more conservative than the Millennial generation?

They largely have parents who are either the youngest Baby Boomers or the first wave Gen Xers-they grew up during Ford, Carter and Reagan, and vote far more Republican than the national average. Parental influence combined with the fact that they would come out of a lengthy Democratic era, I suspect they would be ripe for right-wing rhetoric.

[Frodo]

By 2024, much of the Silent Generation (by far the most conservative) will have died off, thus making it necessary for the GOP to moderate itself for the younger generations taking their place. 

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

By 2024, much of the Silent Generation (by far the most conservative) will have died off, thus making it necessary for the GOP to moderate itself for the younger generations taking their place. 

What are you talking about?

[5280]

I'm a Millennial myself (31), but do not identify with the left wing politics of my generation. Guess I'm an oddball.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

I'm a Millennial myself (31), but do not identify with the left wing politics of my generation. Guess I'm an oddball.

That's good. All smart people are voting against the Democrats by the age of 25.  How do you think Obama won by so much in 2008?