Top 5 states that Reps/Dems will target in 08.

[MissCatholic]

Notice the shift from MO,FL to the southwest and not one state in the south.

[Soup18]

The Dems will never take Colorado

[Joe Republic]

The Dems will never take Colorado

Never?  I doubt that.

[No more McShame]

Never say never

[Alcon]

The Dems will never take Colorado

Considering that it was very close compared to the national average this year, and isn't historically all that Republican, I can't imagine why not...

[TheresNoMoney]

The Dems will never take Colorado

Come back in 4-8 years and we'll see. Colorado is definitely trending Democrat and could be up for grabs in 2008 with the right candidate.

[Soup18]

The Dems will never take Colorado

Considering that it was very close compared to the national average this year, and isn't historically all that Republican, I can't imagine why not...

1) Florida was close in 2000, what now? 2) No Democrat has won more than half the vote in Colorado in 40 years. 3) Coors was a TERRIBLE senate candidate

[Moooooo]

1) Florida was close in 2000, what now? 2) No Democrat has won more than half the vote in Colorado in 40 years. 3) Coors was a TERRIBLE senate candidate

What about the gains made at the state level?

[No more McShame]

In fairness, nick, I don't think you can compare the state level to the federal level.  Democrats still have many state legislatures in the South.  Politics works on a different level at the state than federally.

That said the right Democratic candidate could take Colorado from a weak Republican one. 

[WalterMitty]

im sure the democrats will piss away money in states that they pissed away money in in 2004.

virginia
arkansas
louisiana
west virginia

[Smash255]

The Dems will never take Colorado

Considering that it was very close compared to the national average this year, and isn't historically all that Republican, I can't imagine why not...

1) Florida was close in 2000, what now? 2) No Democrat has won more than half the vote in Colorado in 40 years. 3) Coors was a TERRIBLE senate candidate

1.  Popular Govenor as the President's brother just after a disaster with the hurricanes in many parts of the state...


CO is trending Democrat, in 2004 it was 2% more GOP than the NatL average.  It was closer to the National average than states like PA, MN, MI, WI, NH, FL.  When you look at the battleground states, you have to look at how the state compares to the Natl average.  COmpared to the Natl Average CO was the 5th closest state with only, NV, OH, IA & NM being closer.  To say the Dems don't havce a chance at CO in 08 is silly at best.  The state is trending Dem, & was pretty close to the Natl average in 04, its basically a tossup in 08

[tinman64]

The map looks good, I would throw in perhaps OR for the GOP.

[Smash255]

The map looks good, I would throw in perhaps OR for the GOP.

OR could be tough it was something like 6.75 pts more Dem than the Natl average, all the other states listed were within 5 of the Natl Average (with MI & MN being just about 5)

[opebo]

The Dems will never take Colorado

The map looks good, I would throw in perhaps OR for the GOP.

In future the Democrats are a lot more likely to take Colorado than the Republicans are to take Oregon - even in 2008.

[Blue Rectangle]

Bush's PV percentage in CO increased almost a full point from 2000 (50.75%) to 2004 (51.69%).  The reason why the margin decreased was due largely to Nader voters from 2000 shifting to Kerry.

It should be noted that Kerry spent quite a lot of time and effort in CO (probably way too much--a strategic error that hurt him in other states).  He was campaigning in Pueblo, CO the day before election day, IIRC.  Kerry's turnout was also helped by Ken Salazar's successful senate run, which undoubtedly brought many Hispanic Democrats to the polls.

It should also be noted that although Ken Salazar won, his margin of victory over Pete Coors was quite small (3%, I think).  Given that Salazar was a popular moderate and the current AG as well as a Hispanic, he didn't do all that well against late-arrival to the race and political novice Pete Coors.

The Democratic victory in the statehouse was a result of strictly local issues.  The key issue was the budget deficit and the conflict between a tax and spending limiting amendment and an amendment requiring education spending to increase a rate above inflation.  One shouldn't read to much into this result when it comes to predicting the presidential race in 2008.

[zorkpolitics]

For once I'm in complete agreement, those will be the top targets!

A depressing map for Democrats, since a Republican can win with no new Blue target states and losing up to 3 of the red states.

It really all comess down to OH, Democrats can't win without it.

[A18]

It's not going to come down to swing states in 2008.

[MissCatholic]

I just feel with immigration/trade/foreign affairs the Republican party is dividing.

Due to these positions the Republicans become more electable in MN,IA and WI. But the consequences are that they will lose out in OH and CO.

CO is a state that doesnt like republicans getting to involved in foreign affairs. Bushs policy will have divided traditional republicans from revelutionary republicans. Ohio is a point where the republican trade policy has totally alienated the typical republican voter. Yes the reps won the state. but how many bible bashers came out to vote. Virtually every swing county Franklin, Stark all went Kerrys way.

In 2008, if the republicans pick another candidate like Bush then they will not be able to hold of the new democrats from taking Ohio.

[The Vorlon]

Notice the shift from MO,FL to the southwest and not one state in the south.

Darn Darn close IMHO

Maybe toss Virginia and Oregon onto the list. too...

[MissCatholic]

Teton County, WY shows that rich white typically voting Republicans are now favouring democrats. This could also happen in the colorado counties where they call $100 bills Aspens.

Teton County is a curious case of why the dems penetrated the area. Howard Dean whatever his faults has broken typical republican ground of white rich people. I`ll be interested to see how the dems fair in rich colrado counties in 08. Will they vote like Teton county or will they stay with republicans.

[Akno21]

The Dems will never take Colorado

Clinton won it in 1992.

[PBrunsel]

The Dems will never take Colorado

Clinton won it in 1992.

Enter the Perot.

[Ben Meyers]

Iowa is trending toward the GOP, not the Dems.  Other than that, I really like the map

[Rococo4]

Repblicans will try to win back NH, win Oregon, and win Michigan, and not let the Democrats steal Wisconsin.

Democrats will try and target Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and try again for Ohio but come up short.

[danwxman]

I just feel with immigration/trade/foreign affairs the Republican party is dividing.

Due to these positions the Republicans become more electable in MN,IA and WI. But the consequences are that they will lose out in OH and CO.

CO is a state that doesnt like republicans getting to involved in foreign affairs. Bushs policy will have divided traditional republicans from revelutionary republicans. Ohio is a point where the republican trade policy has totally alienated the typical republican voter. Yes the reps won the state. but how many bible bashers came out to vote. Virtually every swing county Franklin, Stark all went Kerrys way.

In 2008, if the republicans pick another candidate like Bush then they will not be able to hold of the new democrats from taking Ohio.

Ohio just didn't vote on economic issues like everyone thought they would.

The best example is Franklin county, which saw a strong trend for Kerry over Gore. The economy is great in Franklin county!