Rank the swing states in a Clinton vs Trump election...
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 11:32:36 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Rank the swing states in a Clinton vs Trump election...
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Rank the swing states in a Clinton vs Trump election...  (Read 2892 times)
madelka
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 328
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 05, 2015, 03:29:18 PM »

... from most Republican to most Democratic.

Swing states: NV, CO, IA, PA, NH, WI, FL, NC, VA, OH

NC (D+3, meaning Trump loses the state by 3 points)
IA (D+4)
OH (D+4.5)
FL (D+5)
NH (D+6)
CO (D+7.5)
NV (D+7.5)
VA (D+9.5)
WI (D+11)
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,761
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2015, 03:45:49 PM »
« Edited: December 05, 2015, 04:20:44 PM by smilo »

NC: Trump by 7
FL: Trump by 5
CO: Trump by 4
NH: Trump by 2
OH: Trump by 2
IA: Trump Clinton by .5
VA: Trump Clinton by 1
UT: Clinton by 1
NV: Clinton by 7
WI: Clinton by 10

Trump could also lose Arizona in this scenario. I don't feel comfortable making a pick there right now.
Logged
RFayette
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,958
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2015, 03:56:03 PM »

NC: Trump by 7
FL: Trump by 5
CO: Trump by 4
NH: Trump by 2
OH: Trump by 2
IA: Trump by .5
VA: Trump by .5
UT: Clinton by 1
NV: Clinton by 7
WI: Clinton by 10

OK troll....
Logged
Orthogonian Society Treasurer
CommanderClash
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,561
Bermuda


Political Matrix
E: 0.32, S: 4.78

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2015, 04:04:47 PM »
« Edited: December 05, 2015, 04:06:18 PM by clash »

NC: Trump +7
FL: Trump +5
CO: Trump +5
OH: Trump +4
PA: Trump + 2.5
VA: Trump +2

IA: Trump +2
NH: Clinton +1

NV: Clinton +3
WI: Clinton +5.5
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,761
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2015, 04:11:46 PM »

NC: Trump by 7
FL: Trump by 5
CO: Trump by 4
NH: Trump by 2
OH: Trump by 2
IA: Trump by .5
VA: Trump by .5
UT: Clinton by 1
NV: Clinton by 7
WI: Clinton by 10

OK troll....

"It"'s coming. And the Mormen will not like it. Smiley
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,742


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2015, 04:48:45 PM »

NC (R+4)
IA (R+3)
OH (R+3)
CO (R+2.5)
FL (R+2)
NH (R+2)
WI (R+0.5)
VA (D+1)
NV (D+2)
Logged
Broken System
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 429


Political Matrix
E: 0.26, S: 4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2015, 06:56:25 PM »
« Edited: December 05, 2015, 06:59:35 PM by Broken System »

NC (R+8)
FL (R+6)
OH (R+2)

NV (R+0)
VA (R+0)
PA (R+0)

IA (D+2)
CO (D+2)
NH (D+4)
WI (D+5)
MN (D+6)
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2015, 07:01:17 PM »

NC: Toss-Up
IA: Tilt D
OH: Tilt D
FL: Tilt D
NH: Lean D
CO: Tilt D
NV: Lean D
VA: Tilt D
WI: Likely D
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2015, 08:15:58 PM »

GA: Trump +5
AZ: Trump +4
NC: Trump +0.5
FL: Clinton +5
OH: Clinton +7
CO: Clinton +8
PA: Clinton +8
VA: Clinton +9
IA: Clinton +10
NH: Clinton +15
WI: Clinton +15
MN: Clinton +16
NV: Clinton +16
MI: Clinton +18
NM: Clinton +22
Logged
Panhandle Progressive
politicaljunkie
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 855
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2015, 04:06:59 PM »

CO, IA, NH, NV, PA, VA, WI are safe D this election cycle thanks to Trump being the nominee. Clinton has a winning margin of at least 6% in each.

Swing States:
IN: R+3
GA: R+3
AZ: R+2
MO: D+0.05
NC: D+2
FL: D+5
OH: D+5.5

Clinton is elected president with at least 357 electoral votes.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,016
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2015, 10:09:12 PM »

NC: Clinton +1.1
FL: Clinton +4
OH: Clinton +4
IA: Clinton +4.9
CO: Clinton +6.9
NV: Clinton +7.4
PA: Clinton +7.6
VA: Clinton +7.9
WI: Clinton +12
NH: Clinton +13.5
(and that's being very generous to Trump)[/b]

No.  It's not.  As usual, the mention of NH has caused you to dive into a spat of retardation.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,987
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2015, 10:40:57 PM »

NC: Clinton +5.5
OH: Clinton +7
IA: Clinton +8
CO: Clinton +9
FL: Clinton +9
PA: Clinton +11
VA: Clinton +11
WI: Clinton +13
NV: Clinton +16
MN: Clinton +16
MI: Clinton +17

Logged
F_S_USATN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 07, 2015, 12:00:31 AM »

GA- Trump +5
AZ- Trump +3
NC- Trump  +1
FL- Clinton +5
OH- Clinton +5
IA- Clinton +6
CO-Clinton +9
VA- Clinton +9.5
PA- Clinton +10
NH- Clinton +11
WI-Clinton +13
NV- Clinton +13



Logged
Zioneer
PioneerProgress
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,451
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 07, 2015, 12:13:08 AM »

NC: Trump by 7
FL: Trump by 5
CO: Trump by 4
NH: Trump by 2
OH: Trump by 2
IA: Trump by .5
VA: Trump by .5
UT: Clinton by 1
NV: Clinton by 7
WI: Clinton by 10

OK troll....

"It"'s coming. And the Mormen will not like it. Smiley

I'm a Mormon, and I laughed. In all seriousness, the last poll to have a Clinton-Trump head-to-head in Utah did give Trump a 9% edge, which is still impressive, considering that it's Utah. It'd probably be closer if Trump insulted Mormons like he does every other group. Probably something like "Ha, these Mormons, they've got more wives than I do" or a similar crack. Even Utah would see Clinton as acceptable at that point.
Logged
Mallow
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 737
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 07, 2015, 12:37:40 AM »

NC (R+2.0)
FL (R+0.5)

OH (R+0.0)
VA (D+0.0)

NH (D+1.0)
CO (D+1.5)
IA (D+1.5)
WI (D+2.0)
NV (D+3.0)
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,703
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 07, 2015, 06:40:41 AM »

I just made a projection of all states:


Alabama: 57-37% Trump
Alaska: 55-44% Trump
Arizona: 50-48% Trump
Arkansas: 55-43% Trump

California: 63-35% Clinton
Colorado: 52-47% Clinton
Connecticut: 58-41% Clinton
Delaware: 61-38% Clinton
Florida: 51-48% Clinton

Georgia: 50-46% Trump
Hawaii: 72-25% Clinton
Idaho: 60-39% Trump
Illinois: 59-39% Clinton
Indiana: 51-46% Trump
Iowa: 52-46% Clinton
Kansas: 57-41% Trump
Kentucky: 53-45% Trump
Louisiana: 54-44% Trump

Maine: 56-41% Clinton
Maryland: 58-40% Clinton
Massachusetts: 58-40% Clinton
Michigan: 54-43% Clinton
Minnesota: 55-42% Clinton
Mississippi: 56-40% Trump
Missouri: 50-47% Trump
Montana: 49-47% Trump
Nebraska: 55-42% Trump

Nevada: 53-45% Clinton
New Hampshire: 52-46% Clinton
New Jersey: 58-40% Clinton
New Mexico: 53-46% Clinton
New York: 63-35% Clinton
North Carolina: 50-48% Clinton
North Dakota: 54-45% Trump
Ohio: 51-47% Clinton
Oklahoma: 59-38% Trump
Oregon: 53-45% Clinton
Pennsylvania: 53-46% Clinton
Rhode Island: 59-38% Clinton

South Carolina: 53-45% Trump
South Dakota: 54-44% Trump
Tennessee: 55-44% Trump
Texas: 56-43% Trump
Utah: 62-36% Trump
Vermont: 69-29% Clinton
Virginia: 52-47% Clinton
Washington: 55-44% Clinton
West Virginia: 57-41% Trump
Wisconsin: 52-46% Clinton
Wyoming: 65-33% Trump
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 07, 2015, 12:03:37 PM »

MO: Trump+5
IN: Trump +3
AZ: Trump +1.5
GA: Trump+0.5
NC: Clinton+1.5
FL: Clinton+4
OH: Clinton+5
National: Clinton+5.8
IA: Clinton+6
VA: Clinton+6.5
CO: Clinton+8
PA: Clinton+8
NH: Clinton+8.5
WI: Clinton+10
MN: Clinton+10.5
NV: Clinton+11.5
MI: Clinton+12.5
NM: Clinton+16.5
OR: Clinton+18 (because Oregon is totally a swing state, lol)
Logged
Oldiesfreak1854
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,674
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 07, 2015, 10:53:17 PM »

Alabama: Trump +15
Alaska: Trump +5

Arizona: Clinton +3
Arkansas: Trump +4
California: Clinton +28
Colorado: Clinton +8
Connecticut: Clinton +20
Delaware: Clinton +20
District of Columbia: Clinton +90
Florida: Clinton +6
Georgia: Clinton +2
Hawaii: Clinton +45

Idaho: Trump +13
Illinois: Clinton +18
Indiana: Clinton +2
Iowa: Clinton +7

Kansas: Trump +11
Kentucky: Trump +8
Louisiana: Trump +7

Maine: Clinton +19
Maryland: Clinton +21
Massachusetts: Clinton +30
Michigan: Clinton +18
Minnesota: Clinton +20

Mississippi: Trump +10
Missouri: Clinton +4
Montana: Trump +1
Nebraska: Trump +8 (1 of 5 for Clinton)
Nevada: Clinton +10
New Hampshire: Clinton +10
New Jersey: Clinton +20
New Mexico: Clinton +19
New York: Clinton +26
North Carolina: Clinton +5

North Dakota: Trump +4
Ohio: Clinton +6
Oklahoma: Trump +14
Oregon: Clinton +18
Pennsylvania: Clinton +13
Rhode Island: Clinton +30

South Carolina: Trump +11
South Dakota: Trump +6
Tennessee: Trump +9
Texas: Trump +8
Utah: Trump +13

Vermont: Clinton +40
Virginia: Clinton +8
Washington: Clinton +20

West Virginia: Trump +9
Wisconsin: Clinton +17
Wyoming: Trump +13
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.068 seconds with 14 queries.