Burkina Faso general election - 29 November 2015

[Simfan34]

Burkinabés voted today to elect a new president, as well as members of the National Assembly, in elections scheduled following the ouster of long-time strongman Blaise Compaoré last October. The elections were originally supposed to be held in October, but the coup attempt in September caused them to be postponed by a month, which by African standards is a quite minimal delay. Campaigning resumed on November 8th. Polls closed at 18:00 GMT/local time, and while long lines were seen at many polling stations, voting, by all reports, took place peacefully, a very positive sign. The provisional government appears to have stood by its pledge to hand over power to an elected government rather than linger around, as is often the case (Thailand...).

There are 14 candidates standing in the presidential election. It is expected that no candidate will achieve a first-round majority; the second-round would then take place 15 days after the official first-round results are released; provisional results are expected tomorrow so official results should come within the week. It appears likely that the race will come down to two candidates, both dissident (to varying degrees) former officials of the ancien régime-- Roch Marc Kabore and Zephirin Diabre, and possibly long-time opposition leader Benewende Sankara as well.

As an possible indicator of support (at least in the capital), a Kaboré rally held at the National Stadium last Friday (featuring many popular singers, including a Nigerian pop star) drew over 35,000 supporters, while a Diabre rally that same day, held at the Municipal Stadium, attracted just around 10,000 supporters.

[Simfan34]

The fourteen candidates are:

Roch Marc Kaboré (58) is the candidate of the People's Movement for Progress (MPP). Kaboré, a former banking executive, was a senior figure in the Compaoré regime; he was first appointed a minister in 1989, was Prime Minister from 1994 to 1996 and subsequently was made President of the National Assembly and President of Compaoré's Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) party in 2002 and 2003, respectively. He was widely seen as Compaoré's heir-apparent, but quit the government in January 2014 and founded the opposition MPP party, just 10 months before Compaoré's overthrow. Kaboré's motives in doing so were unclear; while he condemned Compare's "undemocratic" rule and "patrimonialisation of power", many have suggested his break was more cynically driven by Compaoré's bid to extend his term in office, which would have frustrated Kaboré's presidential ambitions. While being a strong and well-connected contender, then, Kaboré will likely face challenges in gaining the trust and support of the anti-Compaoré forces that he will need to win the second round.

Zephirin Diabre (56) is the candidate of the Union for Progress and Change (UPC); he also was a former member of Compaoré's government, amongst other things serving as finance minister from 1994 to 1996. He later worked for the UNDP, and then as an executive at Areva. In 2010 he returned to Burkina Faso and declared for the opposition, founding the UPC, which in the 2012 parliamentary and local elections emerged as the second largest party after the ruling CDP. Diabre was the primary figure behind the movement against Compaoré's term extension in 2013-14. While he has strong opposition credentials, and would likely be well-positioned to gain the support of other opposition parties, his relatively recent re-emergence on the political scene may place him at a disadvantage in the political network-building stakes needed to forge a winning coalition.

Bénéwendé Sankara (56) is the candidate of the Union for Rebirth-Sankarist Party (Unir-PS). Of no relation to his party's namesake, he has made two previous attempts at the presidency, placing second in 2005 and third in 2010 (but was in the single digits both times). While the long-time opposition leader has managed to rally the bevy of Sankarist parties under a common banner for this election, it remains uncertain as to whether he will be able to parlay a claim of succession to Sankara's "revolutionary" leadership into broader electoral success.

Ablassé Ouédraogo (62), economist and foreign minister from 1994 to 1999, is the candidate of the Faso Differently (AF) party. A former Deputy Director-General of the WTO and African Union offical in 2011, Ouédraogo founded his party in 2011, when he too split with the Compaoré government.

Saran Séré Sérémé (46) is the candidate of the Development and Change Party (PDC). One of two women candidates in the race, she was a member of the executive bureau of the CDP until she quit the ruling party in 2012 to found the PDC.

Ram Ouédraogo (64) is the candidate of the Burkina Faso Rally of Ecologists (RDEB). Born in Cote d'Ivoire to Burkinabe parents, he came to Burkina in 1984, and founded the country's first green party. Following a political crisis in 1999, he was appointed Minister of State for National Reconciliation, serving until 2002. He ran for president in 1998, placing second, and in 2005, placing fifth.

Jean-Baptiste Natama (51) is an independent candidate. He joined the army following Sankara's rise to power in 1983, and following his retirement in 1990 worked in a number of international organisations, most recently the director of the office of African Union Commission President  Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

Tahirou Barry, candidate of the Party of National Revival (Paren) and employee of the University of Ouagadougou.

Adama Kanazoé, candidate of the Alliance for Young People for Independence and the Republic (AJIR) and telecoms executive.

Salvador Yaméogo, candidate of the Rally of Democrats for Faso, and son of Maurice Yaméogo, first president of Upper Volta (as Burkina Faso was formerly known).

Victorien Tougouma, independent and logistics entrepreneur.

Françoise Toé, independent and director of an accountancy practice.

Issaka Zampaligré, independent and lawyer practicing in both Burkina Faso and France.

Boukaré Ouédraogo, independent and owner of a public-works contractor.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Would it be correct to say that Kabore is 'right' and Diabre is 'left' or would even those vague descriptors be incorrect?

[Simfan34]

Well Diabre does call himself a liberal, so that may be less wrong than it otherwise might be, but I don't think it is a particularly helpful distinction.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Thanks. Also

He who feeds you controls you

Thomas Sankara RIP Never forget

[Simfan34]

Despite the aforementioned predictions, Kaboré has won a majority of first-round votes, 53.49%, and will be elected without a runoff. Diabré placed second with 29.65%, and  Tahirou Barry placed third with 3.09%.

My interpretation of the result is that Kaboré was able to rally fellow former Compaoré associates and local bigwigs behind his candidacy, who, in the clientelist fashion typical of non-Western democracies, were able to deliver enough votes for him to win. This likely means that a many of the vested interests held under the Compaoré will go untouched and that any reforms will be limited in scope rather than sweeping. A Jeune Afrique article suggests much the same thing, describing Kaboré as a "networker" who as Prime Minister repaid favours with cabinet posts.

In terms of "democracy" this, then, is probably a less-than ideal outcome-- the silver lining is that I'd say it's unlikely that he'll seek to stay in office past his term limits. While a naïve return to Cold War-era revolutionary socialism (we can all agree that Sankara's rule would not have ended well had he not been overthrown, right?) would certainly be disastrous for the country's economy-- not that that was a particularly likely possibility- clientelistic politics (viz, corruption) tend to do little good for the economy, either.

But let's be honest-- who had much hope for the Burkinabé economy, anyway?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

In terms of "democracy" this, then, is probably a less-than ideal outcome

Hey it shows as the most pragmatic solution Burkina Faso could positively have after its revolution and coup attempt.

Actually, Burkina shows as a quite positive model for at least Francophone Subsaharian Africa, kinda like Tunisia for the Arab world.

That being said, the Tunisian experience shows that a wave can hardly be as efficient as in the country from where it originated.

In the case of Francophone Subsaharian Africa, Burundi, or PR Congo to a lesser extent, would already make the case.

But you also have new connections of new very young and very innovative democrative movements connecting and spreading all over that area.

One of the biggest one would be 'Y'en a marre' that came from last Sénégal presidential elections (born kinda in the same time than the Tunisian revolution), which would have latter spread, and still spreading/inspiring, notably in DR Congo, and maybe helped the Burkina revolution.

The most important is the long term democratic dynamic, rather than the short term electoral results.

And that one seems to be rather good so far in Burkina.