Chance the Next President is a Republican

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This board seems utterly convinced that Hillary has the edge on most Republicans, but I think it would take a spectacular failure for any Republican to lose to her.

85%

[ScottieF]

45%

[RFayette]

45%

[Asian Nazi]

45%

[Maxwell]

25%. Republicans had a perfect opportunity to take the White House, but on the way the party caught Three Stooges syndrome. Now the primary process is a mess, while the leading Democrat is getting perfect vetting.

[TDAS04]

What Max said.

[Ljube]

I think chances are zero that Republicans will nominate someone unelectable. Trump and Carson have better than 50% chances against Hillary, while Rubio and Christie have worse than 50% chances against Hillary.

About 50%.

[Vosem]

I think prior to Labor Day (at which point polling starts having a relationship with results) basically all elections are 49D/49R/2O. So 49%.

[Slander and/or Libel]

40%. If the election were held today, Hillary would beat any of these guys handily. Things will settle down, and I don't discount the possibility of some unforeseeable events changing the contours of the race over the next year, but I think it in general less than likely that a Republican will win in 2016.

[SillyAmerican]

If President Obama continues to ignore the foreign policy challenges being provided by ISIS, Asad, Russia, China, et. al. and continues to ignore/marginalize the Congress? And Republicans continue to make the case for sound budgeting, immigration, and trade policies? Yeah, I think Republicans might actually come away with a win of the White House.

[Talleyrand]

75% - The Democrats here have some very delusional ideas about the supposed strength of Hillary Clinton, and vice versa the supposed weakness of the Republicans (especially Rubio)...

[Reaganfan]

Likely high.

Despite this forum's opinions, Democrats are really in big trouble. They keep getting utterly wiped out and gutted in any off year election. It's been a horrible week for them politically.

First, it threw Obama off his Climate Change circle-jerk he was gonna discuss at the G20 Summit. Secondly, the badly timed interview about "ISIS being contained". Third, France, the ultimate appeasers, blowing the hell out of ISIS has many even in the mainstream press wondering why the hell we hadn't done that long before. I've even heard mainstream liberal news organizations discussing why we don't have a coalition like George Bush and Dan Quayle had during Operation Desert Storm back in '90 and '91.

Then finally America's correct paranoia has resulted in people I know who are single moms and don't even follow politics talking about how insane Obama is to want to let "these people" in our county.

Politically speaking, horrible week for the left. Election is still a year away, but if I were a Democrat I'd feel alot worse than a Republican.

[The Other Castro]

40%. I can only see Rubio having a shot at beating Clinton, and he has no better than a 50/50 chance of winning the nomination at this moment. Factoring in that time=uncertainty, and how 1 year is tons of time in politics, there is enough uncertainty to limit Dem's chances of winning down to 60% for now.

[/]

45 seems about right

[Illiniwek]

45 seems about right

[Volrath50]

45 is about what I'd say, in general.

Probably 55 if they manage to choose Rubio, Christie or maybe Kasich.

Probably around 33 with Trump, Carson or Cruz.

[Mehmentum]

50%.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

55-60%

[Likely Voter]

The GOP has won the popular vote once in the last 6 election and it did that by appealing to non-whites and moderates with an incumbent president who didn't have to run in a primary (and therefore didn't have to pander to nativist whites and conservatives). Because of that I think the GOP has a <50% chance. Not sure exactly how much less but probably 40-45%.

[TarHeelDem]

20%. Rubio's the only one running with a shot at beating her and he'll probably choke while trying.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

45 percent

[Pyro]

Precisely 44.284%. source: 538 /s

[Nyvin]

I think chances are zero that Republicans will nominate someone unelectable. Trump and Carson have better than 50% chances against Hillary, while Rubio and Christie have worse than 50% chances against Hillary.

About 50%.

Are you being serious here?   Lol?

Anyway....it's definitely less than 50% that the GOP will win.   The electoral college is against them first of all.   Second their primary process is a complete mess and whoever ends up winning will have gotten so bruised and attacked they'll be damaged goods.

Lastly, despite all the GOP's desperate spin...Hillary really is a fricking fantastic candidate for President.  

[Figueira]

45%, because I think there's a chance that Rubio could be an okay candidate.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

70% if they nominate trump, 30% if they nominate a different candidate. i think trump has about a 60% chance of winning the nomination, so the aggregate chance would be 54%.