Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's my contribution towards making a fool of myself:

Ridings that are safe to be held by their current party I'll be omitting to save space.

strong = reasonably certain, but a combination of local and national factors could cause it to fall to another party
prob = I think it'll go this way, but either local or national factors could cause it to change by themselves
slight =  A toss-up that won't surprise me at all if it goes the other way

Seats that represent a change will get a color marking as well

Newfoundland and Labrador
Lib 4 (-1) Con 3 (+1) NDP 0 (+0)
Bonavista—Exploits slight Con gain from Lib
Random—Burin—St. George's prob Lib hold over NDP

If the Bonavista—Exploits switch occurs it will be due more to NDP gains than Conservative gains.  The 2004 results indicate that every NDP leaning tactical voter in the riding went Liberal then to avoid a Conservative win.  I don't think NDP tacticals will mind that as much this time.

Prince Edward Island
Lib 4

Nova Scotia
Lib 5 (-0) Con 4 (+0) NDP 2 (+0)
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour prob Lib hold over NDP
West Nova prob Lib hold over Con

New Brunswick
Lib 7 (-0) Con 2 (+0)  NDP 1 (+0)
Saint John prob Lib hold over Con
Tobique—Mactaquac slight Lib hold over Con

Quebec
BQ 59 (+5) Lib 16 (-5) Con 0 (+0)
Ahuntsic prob BQ gain from Lib
Beauce prob Lib hold over BQ
Brome—Missisquoi prob BQ gain from Lib
Brossard—La Prairie slight Lib hold over BQ
Gatineau prob BQ gain from Lib
Honoré-Mercier  prob Lib hold over BQ
Hull—Aylmer  strong Lib hold over BQ
Jeanne-Le Ber strong BQ gain from Lib
Laval—Les Îles strong Lib hold over BQ
Louis-Saint-Laurent  prob BQ hold over Con
Nunavik—Eeyou  strong BQ hold over Lib
Outremont  prob Lib hold over BQ
Papineau slight BQ gain from Lib

Ontario
Lib 62 (-13) Con 33 (+9) NDP 11 (+4)
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing strong Lib over NDP
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale slight Con gain from Lib
Barrie prob Con gain from Lib
Brampton West slight Con gain from Lib
Brant slight Con gain from Lib
Burlington slight Lib hold over Con
Chatham-Kent—Essex strong Con gain from Lib
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP prob gain from Lib
Hamilton Mountain NDP prob gain from Lib
Kenora  Lab slight hold over NDP
Kitchener—Conestoga slight Lib hold over Con
London—Fanshawe prob Lib hold over NDP
Middlesex—Kent—Lambton strong Con gain from Lib
Nickel Belt prob Lib hold over NDP
Nipissing—Timiskaming  slight Con gain from Lib
Northumberland—Quinte West safe Con gain
Oshawa prob NDP gain from Con
Ottawa—Orléans prob Con gain from Lib
Ottawa South strong Lib hold over Con
Ottawa West—Nepeanprob Con gain from Lib
Parkdale—High Park prob Lib hold over NDP
Parry Sound—Muskoka  prob Lib hold over Con
St. Catharines slight Lib hold over Con
Simcoe North slight Lib hold over Con
Thunder Bay—Rainy River strong Lib hold over NDP
Trinity—Spadina strong NDP gain from Lib
Whitby—Oshawa strong Lib hold over Con

If the Libs hold onto  Middlesex—Kent—Lambton  it'll only be because of tactical voting by NDP-ites.

Manitoba
Con 7 NDP 4 Lib 3

Saskatchewan
Con 12(-1) NDP 1 (+1) Lib 1
Palliser slight NDP gain from Con

The potential NDP gain will depend on how disaffected 2004 Liberals go.  I think we'll see some tactical voting from Libs since they have no chance of improving from their strong third place showing in this election in the riding, but I'm not certain which tactics they'll prefer.

Alberta
Con 28 (+2) Lib 0 (-2)
Edmonton—Beaumont strong Con gain from Lib
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre strong Con gain from Lib

In Crowfoot the NDP will go from number four party to number three as it switches places with the Liberals while the Condervatives will remain the number one and number two parties in the riding. Heck, they could have a three way party split and still win Crowfoot as there are third world dictators who win with less impressive margins than the Tories did in 2004 in Crowfoot

Edmonton—Strathcona  will remain a safe Con riding but the NDP will replace the Libs as the number two party there.

British Columbia
Con 22 (+0) NDP 10 (+5) Lib 4 (-4) Ind 0 (-1)
Dewdney—Alouette  strong Con hold over NDP
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca slight NDP gain from Lib
Fleetwood—Port Kells strong Con hold over NDP (Libs fall from second to third)
Nanaimo—Alberni strong Con hold over NDP
Newton—North Delta slight Con hold over NDP (unless the Greens do some tacical voting for the NDP)
New Westminster—Coquitlam slight NDP gain from [color-navy]Con[/color]
North Vancouver slight Con gain from Lib
Richmond prob Lib hold over Con
Southern Interior slight Con hold over NDP (unless the Greens do some tacical voting for the NDP)
Surrey North safe Con gain
Vancouver Centre prob Lib hold over NDP
Vancouver Island North slight NDP gain from Con
Vancouver Kingsway prob NDP gain from Lib
Victoria slight NDP gain from Lib

With Chuck Cadman out of the picture, Surrey North should return to being a safe Conservative riding.

Territories
Lib 2 (-1) NDP 1 (+1)
Western Arctic strong NDP gain from Lib
Canada
Con 110 (+11)
Lib 109 (-26)
BQ 59 (+5)
NDP 30 (+11)
Ind 0 (-1)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here's my contribution towards making a fool of myself:

Ah, don't be so hard on yourself
Only one prediction looks... odd...

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Surrey North was never a safe Conservative riding; it's a mix of docks and blue collar suburbs. A sort of Canadian Thurrock (without the more average outer suburbs in a couple of places). Traditionally a strong NDP area and IIRC they got some of their best margins in B.C in the area in the last provincial election.
As an aside, there's a lot of ironic place names in Canada isn't there? Not just this one... Cambridge and Windsor are both blue collar Union towns for example...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's my contribution towards making a fool of myself:

Ah, don't be so hard on yourself
Only one prediction looks... odd...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Surrey North was never a safe Conservative riding; it's a mix of docks and blue collar suburbs. A sort of Canadian Thurrock (without the more average outer suburbs in a couple of places). Traditionally a strong NDP area and IIRC they got some of their best margins in B.C in the area in the last provincial election.

At the provincial level the area is more friendly to the dippers, but in BC politics is two party between the left wing NDP and the right wing BC Liberal party (no relation to the federal Liberals).  In '93, '97, 2000, and 2004 the main right-wing candidate won easily, thanks in part to the left-wing vote being split between the federal Liberals and the NDP.  I see no reason for that trend to be any different for 2006 in Surrey North.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP candidate in Surrey North was endorsed by Cadman's wife. Plus, all the pundits are predicting NDP victory there.

As for my area, which I know best, I can tell you Ottawa-Orleans will stay Liberal. Also, Ottawa Centre (which you did not mention) will probably flip back to the Grits. Another thing you missed is Selkirk-Interlake, which has Ed Schreyer running. And You missed Churchill too. The NDP candidate is running as an independent.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

A few minor changes after considering the Governor's remarks:

Ridings that are safe to be held by their current party I'll be omitting to save space.

strong = reasonably certain, but a combination of local and national factors could cause it to fall to another party
prob = I think it'll go this way, but either local or national factors could cause it to change by themselves
slight =  A toss-up that won't surprise me at all if it goes the other way

Seats that represent a change will get a color marking as well

Newfoundland and Labrador
Lib 4 (-1) Con 3 (+1) NDP 0 (+0)
Bonavista—Exploits slight Con gain from Lib
Random—Burin—St. George's prob Lib hold over NDP

Prince Edward Island
Lib 4

Nova Scotia
Lib 5 (-0) Con 4 (+0) NDP 2 (+0)
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour prob Lib hold over NDP
West Nova prob Lib hold over Con

New Brunswick
Lib 7 (-0) Con 2 (+0)  NDP 1 (+0)
Saint John prob Lib hold over Con
Tobique—Mactaquac slight Lib hold over Con

Quebec
BQ 59 (+5) Lib 16 (-5) Con 0 (+0)
Ahuntsic prob BQ gain from Lib
Beauce prob Lib hold over BQ
Brome—Missisquoi prob BQ gain from Lib
Brossard—La Prairie slight Lib hold over BQ
Gatineau prob BQ gain from Lib
Honoré-Mercier  prob Lib hold over BQ
Hull—Aylmer  strong Lib hold over BQ
Jeanne-Le Ber strong BQ gain from Lib
Laval—Les Îles strong Lib hold over BQ
Louis-Saint-Laurent  prob BQ hold over Con
Nunavik—Eeyou  strong BQ hold over Lib
Outremont  prob Lib hold over BQ
Papineau slight BQ gain from Lib

Ontario
Lib 62 (-13) Con 33 (+9) NDP 11 (+4)
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing strong Lib over NDP
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale slight Con gain from Lib
Barrie prob Con gain from Lib
Brampton West slight Con gain from Lib
Brant slight Con gain from Lib
Burlington slight Lib hold over Con
Chatham-Kent—Essex strong Con gain from Lib
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP prob gain from Lib
Hamilton Mountain NDP prob gain from Lib
Kenora  Lab slight hold over NDP
Kitchener—Conestoga slight Lib hold over Con
London—Fanshawe prob Lib hold over NDP
Middlesex—Kent—Lambton strong Con gain from Lib
Nickel Belt prob Lib hold over NDP
Nipissing—Timiskaming  slight Con gain from Lib
Northumberland—Quinte West safe Con gain
Oshawa prob NDP gain from Con
Ottawa—Orléans slight Con gain from Lib
Ottawa South strong Lib hold over Con
Ottawa West—Nepeanprob Con gain from Lib
Parkdale—High Park prob Lib hold over NDP
Parry Sound—Muskoka  prob Lib hold over Con
St. Catharines slight Lib hold over Con
Simcoe North slight Lib hold over Con
Thunder Bay—Rainy River strong Lib hold over NDP
Trinity—Spadina strong NDP gain from Lib
Whitby—Oshawa strong Lib hold over Con

With the misstep by M. Galipeau, I'll reduce the Con chances in Ottawa—Orléans fron prob to slight, but I still favor them.

As for Ottawa Centre, Mahoney already showed in 2004 that he's no Harb, and I think that the NDP made the right choice given the general mood of this election to go with a relative newcomer instead of a oldtimer who lost to Harb.  Maybe if there was a general pro-Liberal sentiment I could see them retaking the seat, but not this election.

Manitoba
Con 7 NDP 3(-1) Lib 4(+1) Ind 0(+0)
Churchill slight Lib gain over Ind from NDP

As for Churchill, now that I've been made aware of that brou-ha-ha, it's clear that the NDP will lose the riding, the only question is will Bev be able to keep the seat.  Mr. Ahmad ran in Churchill before and doesn't have any better chance now than he did then, so I can see socially conservative Tories choosing to vote for Bev to give the NDP a black eye and to attempt to keep the seat from the Libs. Is there any chance that Bev might join the Greens or even the CAP after the election if she wins?  I can't see any chance of her rejoining the NDP, and if she'd wanted to join the Libs she already had ample opportunity.

Selkirk—Interlake will see the NDP do better with the former Gov. Gen., but I don't think it will be enough to defeat the Tories without a massive tactical vote by the Libs, and I don't see that happening.

Saskatchewan
Con 12(-1) NDP 1 (+1) Lib 1
Palliser slight NDP gain from Con.

Alberta
Con 28 (+2) Lib 0 (-2)
Edmonton—Beaumont strong Con gain from Lib
Edmonton Centre strong Con gain from Lib

British Columbia
Con 22 (+0) NDP 10 (+5) Lib 4 (-4) Ind 0 (-1)
Dewdney—Alouette  strong Con hold over NDP
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca slight NDP gain from Lib
Fleetwood—Port Kells strong Con hold over NDP (Libs fall from second to third)
Nanaimo—Alberni strong Con hold over NDP
Newton—North Delta slight Con hold over NDP (unless the Greens do some tacical voting for the NDP)
New Westminster—Coquitlam slight NDP gain from Con
North Vancouver slight Con gain from Lib
Richmond prob Lib hold over Con
Southern Interior slight Con hold over NDP (unless the Greens do some tacical voting for the NDP)
Surrey North prob Con gain from Ind over NDP
Vancouver Centre prob Lib hold over NDP
Vancouver Island North slight NDP gain from Con
Vancouver Kingsway prob NDP gain from Lib
Victoria slight NDP gain from Lib

I've lessened my sureness in Surrey North, but I can't so easily dismiss the strong results of the last four federal elections as to not see that seat favoring the Conservatives.  Maybe if the election had been called just after Cadman's death, but not after half a year.

Territories
Lib 2 (-1) NDP 1 (+1)
Western Arctic strong NDP gain from Lib
Canada
Con 110 (+11)
Lib 110 (-25)
BQ 59 (+5)
NDP 29 (+10)
Ind 0 (-1)

And as long as I'm now predicting a tie, is there any protocol as to who gets to try first to form a government if the top two parties are tied?

[Hatman 🍁]

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Yes, the governing party does, in this case the Liberals.

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She's still in the NDP IIRC. She's only running as an indy because he lost the nomination race.

I also want to address Newmarket-Aurora with you. Are you predicting a Conservative or Liberal victory there?

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm going to post my predictions here, because they didn't get any response in the other thread:

My predictions for notable ridings:

Atlantic Canada

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour:       Liberal hold
Kings-Hants:            Liberal hold
South Shore-St. Margaret's:      Conservative hold
West Nova:            Liberal hold
Fredericton:            Liberal hold
Madawaska-Restigouche:         Liberal hold
Saint John:            Liberal hold
Tobique-Mactaquac:         Liberal hold
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe:      Liberal hold

Result: No change

Quebec
Saint-Maurice-Champlain:       BQ hold
Beauce:               BQ pick-up
Brome-Missisquoi:         BQ pick-up
Beauharnois-Salaberry:         BQ hold
Brossard-La Prairie:         Liberal hold
Chateauguay-Saint-Constant:      BQ hold
Vercheres-Les Patriotes:      BQ hold
Honore-Mercier:            Liberal hold
Ahuntsic:            BQ pick-up
Jeanne-Le Ber:            BQ pick-up
Laval-Les Iles:            Liberal hold
Outremont:            Liberal hold
Papineau:            BQ pick-up
Gatineau:            Liberal hold
Louis-Saint-Laurent:         BQ hold
Pontiac:            Liberal hold
Vaudreuil-Soulanges:         BQ hold
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord:         BQ hold

Result:
BQ - 59
Liberals - 16

Ontario
Ottawa Centre:            Liberal pick-up
Ottawa West-Nepean:         Conservative pick-up
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell:      Liberal hold
Peterborough:             Liberal hold
Simcoe North:            Conservative pick-up
Etobicoke-Lakeshore:         Liberal hold
Mississauga-Erindale:         Liberal hold
Hamilton Mountain:         NDP pick-up
Chatham-Kent-Essex:         Conservative pick-up
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex:         Conservative pick-up
London-Fanshawe:         Liberal hold
Beaches-East York:         Liberal hold
Parkdale-High Park:         Liberal hold
Trinity-Spadina:         NDP pick-up
Ancaster-Dundas-Flaborough-Westdale:    Liberal hold
Burlington:            Liberal hold
Halton:               Liberal hold
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek:      NDP pick-up
Hamilton Mountain:         NDP pick-up
Niagara Falls:            Conservative hold
Newmarket-Aurora:         Liberal pick-up (from last election)
Niagara West-Glanbrook:         Conservative hold
Oshawa:               NDP pick-up
St. Catharines:            Liberal hold
Whitby-Oshawa:            Liberal hold
Northumberland-Quinte West      Conservative pick-up
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry      Conservative hold
Kenora:               Liberal hold
Nickel Belt:            Liberal hold
Nipissing-Timiskaming:         Liberal hold
Parry Sound-Muskoka:         Liberal hold
Timmins-James Bay:         NDP hold
Brant:               Liberal hold
Haldimand-Norfolk:         Conservative hold
Cambridge:            Conservative hold   
Essex:               Conservative hold
Kitchener-Conestoaga:         Liberal hold
London West:            Liberal hold
Sarnia-Lambton:            Liberal hold
Barrie:               Liberal hold

Results:
Liberal 67
NDP 11
Cons 28

Prairies:
Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia:   Conservative hold
Selkirk-Interlake: Conservative hold
Churchill:            Liberal pick-up
Kildonan-St. Paul:         Conservative hold
Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River:   Conservative hold
Palliser:            Conservative hold
Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre:       Conservative hold
Regina-Qu'Appelle:         NDP pick-up
Saskatoon-Humboldt:         Conservative hold
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar: Conservative hold
Peace River:            Conservative hold
Westlock-St. Paul:         Conservative hold
Wetaskiwin:            Conservative hold
Edmonton-Millwoods-Beaumont:      Conservative pick-up
Edmonton Centre:         Liberal hold
Edmonton-Strathcona:         Conservative hold

Result: no change

British Columbia & the North
Richmond:            Liberal hold
British Columbia Southern Interior:   NDP pick-up
Kelowna-Lake Country:         Conservative hold
Okanagan-Shuswap:         Conservative hold
Abbotsford:             Conservative hold
Newton-North Delta:         NDP pick-up
Surrey North:            NDP pick-up
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country: Conservative hold
Victoria:            NDP pick-up
Vancouver Centre:         NDP pick-up
Vancouver-Kingsway:         Liberal hold
Burnaby-New Westminster:      NDP hold
Burnaby-Douglas: NDP hold
Fleetwood-Port Kells:         Conservative hold
New Westminster-Coquitlam:      NDP pick-up
North Vancouver:         Liberal hold
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale: Conservative hold
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission: Conservative hold
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam:   Conservative hold
Skeena-Bulkley Valley:         NDP hold
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca:         Liberal hold
Nanaimo-Alberni:         Conservative hold
Saanich-Gulf Islands:         Conservative hold
Vancouver Island North:         NDP pick-up
Northwest Territories:         NDP pick-up

Results:
NDP 13
Cons 18
Liberal 8

TOTAL:
Liberal: 119
Cons: 99
NDP: 31
BQ: 59

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

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She's still in the NDP IIRC. She's only running as an indy because he lost the nomination race.

According to Wikipedia, she resigned from the NDP caucus when she lost the nomination.  Unless that was purely a formal requirement for her to run as an independent, I'd say she's gone and not going to look back.

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The Conservatives should regain the seat that was lost due to the floor defection.  If it were an election in which the Libs would hold steady or even gain, Stronach would probably keep the seat, but with the Libs losing ground and the Tories gaining, I don't see it.  The Liberal stronghold of the old Vaughan—King—Aurora riding clearly was Vaughan and not Aurora based on the 2004 results.

[bullmoose88]

Where is Stronach running this time?

[Gabu]

Where is Stronach running this time?

Newmarket-Aurora.

[bullmoose88]

she's gonna run in a tory seat (granted, one she won?)

Wouldn't the liberals move her to a safe riding?

[Gabu]

she's gonna run in a tory seat (granted, one she won?)

Wouldn't the liberals move her to a safe riding?

Well, her re-election website displays Newmarket-Aurora as the riding in question.  That's all I know.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New poll (Ipsos-Reid)...

Con 33% (+1), Lib 32% (-1), NDP 18% (+2)

When I can find regional stuff I'll post it

[Hatman 🍁]

she's gonna run in a tory seat (granted, one she won?)

Wouldn't the liberals move her to a safe riding?

Newmarket-Aurora is a safe Liberal riding. Her personal popularity won it for her last time as a tory. Well, it's not "safe" but she should win it pretty easily.

As for Desjerlais, resigning from caucus and leaving the party are two different things. She could be and probably still is registered as a New Democrat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some new polls out today. First SES...

Con 36%, Lib 33%, NDP 15%, BQ 13%

That's a lead just about outside the MoE.

Tories lead in West and Ontario (!), BQ in Quebec and Liberals in the Atlantic. NDP strongest in the West and the Atlantic.

SES has consistently shown better Liberal numbers than almost any other pollster.

...and then EKOS...

Con 36.2%, Lib 30.4%, NDP 17.9%, BQ 10.4%, Grn 4.7%

A clear lead, no?

*If* this poll is correct, the Tories are basically tied with the Liberals in *Quebec* and have surged in B.C.

Oh... and 58% of voters think that Goodale should resign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regional highlights from the recent Ipsos-Reid poll...

*A tight three-way race in BC (with the NDP ahead of the Liberals by 1pt)

*Tories on 63% in Alberta... with the Liberals in *third* place with just 11%...

*Tories and NDP both doing better in Prairies than last election. Always have to be careful with Prairie breakdowns though.

*Tories LEAD IN ONTARIO by 5pts

*Standard-issue Quebec numbers

*Standard-issue Atlantic numbers

[minionofmidas]

Tell me again, what date is the election on? Maybe edit it into the thread title or sumpin.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tell me again, what date is the election on? Maybe edit it into the thread title or sumpin.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm working tonight. Hopefuly it will be a poll

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A Leger poll has the BQ on 45% in Quebec

[Lincoln Republican]

Canadian general election January 23, 2006

Total seats in Canadian Parliament 308

Newfoundland and Labrador               7
Prince Edward Island                           4
Nova Scotia                                        11
New Brunswick                                   10
Quebec                                               75
Ontario                                              106
Manitoba                                             14
Saskatchewan                                     14
Alberta                                                 28
British Columbia                                   36
Nunavut                                                 1
Northwest Territories                             1
Yukon Territory                                       1

Parties
Conservative Party
Liberal Party
New Democratic Party
Bloc Quebecois (candidates only in Quebec)
Green Party

My Prediction

Conservatives      138 seats
Liberals                  94 seats
Bloc Quebecois       58 seats
New Democrats      18 seats

Anyone, please post your predictions, then we can see how close everyone comes to the actual results.

[The Vorlon]

Quick summary...

Torys barely ahead nationally, right at the margin of error.

Fundementals moving very strongly to Harper and away from Martin.

I expect very soon "soft" support indicators such as "who do you trust most", "who represents your values best" etc will see Harper either tie or overtake Martin.

Tory gains in Quebec are quite real.  Torys will likely get 3 seats in Quebec, big impact is the Torys take more votes from the Grits than the Bloq, so Bloq totals will rise, 63 maybe 65.

Torys rebounding nicely in BC, will not match their 2004, but may come close.

Liberals still up in Ontario, best guess is about 5-7%% or so.

Liberals are very scared internally.

I will make two predictions.

1)  The Grits will try to paint Harper as the Anti-christ - it will get very negative, ugly, and personal. - The Grits are desperate.

2) Either voters run away from Harper in fear, or away from the Grits in revulsion.... time will tell

We are at an inflection point, in the next week we will know if we get a razon thin Grit minority, or a Tory minority almost but not quite nudging up to Majoritty status.

Watch al the "trust" indicators in the polls - ie who Canadians think is more honest, etc..

If these indicators hold or move toward Harper, its Tory time, if they drift back towards Martin, it Grit re-election time.

Ignore the daily horse race nunbers, things are waaaay to choppy right now to make any sense of them.

~~The Vorlon~~

[Hatman 🍁]

New Democrats      18 seats

Why do you think the NDP will lose seats?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

A few more minor changes:

Ridings that are safe to be held by the party elected there in 2004 I'll be omitting to save space.

strong = reasonably certain, but a combination of local and national factors could cause it to fall to another party
prob = I think it'll go this way, but either local or national factors could cause it to change by themselves
slight =  A toss-up that won't surprise me at all if it goes the other way

Seats that represent a change will get a color marking as well

Newfoundland and Labrador
Lib 4 (-1) Con 3 (+1) NDP 0 (+0)
Bonavista—Exploits slight Con gain from Lib
Random—Burin—St. George's prob Lib hold over NDP

Prince Edward Island
Lib 4

Nova Scotia
Lib 5 (-0) Con 4 (+0) NDP 2 (+0)
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour prob Lib hold over NDP
West Nova strong Lib hold over Con (was prob)

New Brunswick
Lib 7 (-0) Con 2 (+0)  NDP 1 (+0)
Saint John prob Lib hold over Con
Tobique—Mactaquac slight Lib hold over Con

Quebec
BQ 59 (+5) Lib 16 (-5) Con 0 (+0)
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou strong BQ hold over Lib
Ahuntsic slight BQ gain from Lib (was prob)
Beauce strong Lib hold over BQ (was prob)
Brome—Missisquoi slight BQ gain from Lib (was prob)
Brossard—La Prairie prob Lib hold over BQ (was slight)
Gatineau slight BQ gain from Lib (was prob)
Honoré-Mercier strong Lib hold over BQ (was prob)
Hull—Aylmer safe Lib hold over BQ (was strong)
Jeanne-Le Ber prob BQ gain from Lib (was strong)
Laval—Les Îles safe Lib hold over BQ (was strong)
Louis-Saint-Laurent  prob BQ hold over Con
Outremont  prob Lib hold over BQ
Papineau slight BQ gain from Lib

The changes here are more a reflection that I'm less certain of BQ strength than I was when I last looked at these than anything else.

Ontario
Lib 60 (-15) Con 34 (+10) NDP 12 (+5)
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing prob Lib over NDP (was strong)
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale slight Con gain from Lib
Barrie prob Con gain from Lib
Brampton West slight Con gain from Lib
Brant slight Con gain from Lib
Burlington slight Lib hold over Con
Chatham-Kent—Essex strong Con gain from Lib
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek prob NDP gain from Lib
Hamilton Mountain prob NDP gain from Lib
Kenora slight NDP gain from Lab (was slight Lib hold)
Kitchener—Conestoga slight Lib hold over Con
London—Fanshawe prob Lib hold over NDP
Middlesex—Kent—Lambton strong Con gain from Lib
Newmarket—Aurora prob Con hold over Lib (from safe)
Nickel Belt prob Lib hold over NDP
Nipissing—Timiskaming prob Con gain from Lib (was slight)
Northumberland—Quinte West safe Con gain
Oshawa prob NDP gain from Con
Ottawa—Orléans slight Con gain from Lib
Ottawa South strong Lib hold over Con
Ottawa West—Nepean prob Con gain from Lib
Parkdale—High Park prob Lib hold over NDP
Parry Sound—Muskoka  slight Lib hold over Con (was prob)
St. Catharines slight Lib hold over Con
Simcoe North slight Con gain from Lib (was slight Lib hold)
Thunder Bay—Rainy River prob Lib hold over NDP (was strong)
Thunder Bay—Superior North strong Lib hold over NDP (was safe)
Trinity—Spadina strong NDP gain from Lib
Whitby—Oshawa strong Lib hold over Con
Welland strong Lib hold over NDP (was safe)

Before the right wing split the Newmarket—Aurora area was safely Conservative and with that breach healed, I see no reason for it not to be safe now save for the incumbent.  Still, with this being a down election for the Libs, I can't see Stronach keeping her seat.

The change in Welland is due to the fact that with the Tories firmly in third place there in 2004, I think the NDP is likely to post better than average gains there as NDP leaning voters who voted tactically for the Libs in 2004 are likely to come home.  Doubtful that it will be enough for the dipper to gain the riding, but it's enough that I'm taking it out of my safe seat list.

The other change are due to my adjusting the NDP chances in Northern Ontario upwards

Manitoba
Con 7 NDP 3(-1) Lib 4(+1) Ind 0(+0)
Churchill slight Lib gain over Ind from NDP

Saskatchewan
Con 12(-1) NDP 1 (+1) Lib 1
Palliser slight NDP gain from Con.

Alberta
Con 28 (+2) Lib 0 (-2)
Edmonton—Beaumont strong Con gain from Lib
Edmonton Centre strong Con gain from Lib

British Columbia
Con 22 (+0) NDP 10 (+5) Lib 4 (-4) Ind 0 (-1)
Dewdney—Alouette  strong Con hold over NDP
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca slight NDP gain from Lib
Fleetwood—Port Kells strong Con hold over NDP (Libs fall from second to third)
Nanaimo—Alberni strong Con hold over NDP
Newton—North Delta slight Con hold over NDP (Libs fall from second to third)
New Westminster—Coquitlam slight NDP gain from Con
North Vancouver slight Con gain from Lib
Richmond prob Lib hold over Con
Skeena—Bulkley Valley strong NDP hold over Con (was safe)
Southern Interior slight Con hold over NDP
Surrey North prob Con gain from Ind over NDP
Vancouver Centre prob Lib hold over NDP
Vancouver Island North slight NDP gain from Con
Vancouver Kingsway prob NDP gain from Lib
Victoria slight NDP gain from Lib

Territories
Lib 2 (-1) NDP 1 (+1)
Western Arctic strong NDP gain from Lib
Canada
Con 111 (+12)
Lib 108 (-27)
BQ 59 (+5)
NDP 30 (+11)
Ind 0 (-1)

Net change from my last prediction is I have the Dippers and the Torries both getting one more seat from the Grits.  If my result is correct, we may end up having a second 2006 Canadian election unless the Grits and Torries are willing to try a Grand Coalition ala Angela Merkel.

[Hatman 🍁]

Newmarket-Aurora is Belinda territory!!!