Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My question is, is Western Arctic truely competitive?

Depends if the NDP have picked Bevington again or not

[Hatman 🍁]

My question is, is Western Arctic truely competitive?

Depends if the NDP have picked Bevington again or not

They have. Western Artic will obviously be competitive. It was only won by like 40 votes last time.

[Siege40]

My question is, is Western Arctic truely competitive?

Depends if the NDP have picked Bevington again or not

Fifty-three, still, do the people of the North have a reason to switch to the NDP, or to stay Liberal, clearly their concerns aren't identical to someone's in Windsor.

Siege

They have. Western Artic will obviously be competitive. It was only won by like 40 votes last time.

[Hatman 🍁]

My question is, is Western Arctic truely competitive?

Depends if the NDP have picked Bevington again or not

They have. Western Artic will obviously be competitive. It was only won by like 40 votes last time.

Fifty-three, still, do the people of the North have a reason to switch to the NDP, or to stay Liberal, clearly their concerns aren't identical to someone's in Windsor.

Siege

No, but I wouldn't expect much of a change from 2004, but with the NDP polling slightly better, that will be enough to convince *at least* those 53 voters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Been a while since the NDP won Western Arctic (hasn't happen since the '70's) but then again, it's not as though they have no history there. With Bevington running again it should be pretty close.

Moving a lot further south, what effect do you all think the job cuts that GM announced for Oshawa and St Catherines will have?

[Hatman 🍁]

Been a while since the NDP won Western Arctic (hasn't happen since the '70's) but then again, it's not as though they have no history there. With Bevington running again it should be pretty close.

Moving a lot further south, what effect do you all think the job cuts that GM announced for Oshawa and St Catherines will have?

I was wondering that myself. I don't know about St. Catharines, but I for Oshawa, it will be short term success for the NDP, but long term won't be so good.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

but I for Oshawa, it will be short term success for the NDP, but long term won't be so good.

Unless o/c the lost jobs are replaced with newer manufacturing jobs; bearing in mind the location, skilled workforce and all that, that's what would probably happen over here (you'd also get money from the government/E.U structural funds to invest in the area most likely). Not sure what the economic development setup is like in Ontario though.

[Siege40]

I believe Sid Ryan (NDP) will win Oshawa, it was extremely close last time, and I believe that Jack Layton's policy on manufacturing may be enough to swing the riding.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Is there any chance whatsoever of a Conservative recovery in Quebec this election that could take away enough votes from the BQ to actually cause the Liberals to gain seats there?

[Harry Hayfield]

Current Canada Polls (averaged since the start of the campaign)

Liberals 35%
Conservatives 29.5%
New Democrats 16%
Bloc Quebecois 14%
Green 5%
Others 0.5%

[Hatman 🍁]

Is there any chance whatsoever of a Conservative recovery in Quebec this election that could take away enough votes from the BQ to actually cause the Liberals to gain seats there?

Not sure. The Conservatives *may* win one seat in Quebec, but I doubt it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there any chance whatsoever of a Conservative recovery in Quebec this election that could take away enough votes from the BQ to actually cause the Liberals to gain seats there?

I wouldn't have thought so (the Tories are polling below the NDP in Quebec right now) but then again I'm not at all sure what the hell is going on in Quebec right now anyway; I personally have a suspicion that (as usual) the polls are overstating the BQ's support. Who that benefits, what with the Liberal scandels, the perception of the Tories as a Western Canada party and the total lack of an NDP organisation in Quebec, I've really no idea at all.
Btw, the Tories are thought of (by some people) to have a chance in two ridings in Quebec; Pontiac (a rural riding in the Ottawa Valley) and Louis St. Laurent (affluent (IIRC) riding in Quebec City). If the 2004 results are anything to go by, Louis St. Laurent is far more likely, despite the riding's history. The Grit M.P for Pontiac is an Anglo (I think. His surname is Smith...) which hurts the Tories a lot there methinks.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting:

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2005/12/02/elxn-layton-sask.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Is there any chance whatsoever of a Conservative recovery in Quebec this election that could take away enough votes from the BQ to actually cause the Liberals to gain seats there?

I wouldn't have thought so (the Tories are polling below the NDP in Quebec right now) but then again I'm not at all sure what the hell is going on in Quebec right now anyway; I personally have a suspicion that (as usual) the polls are overstating the BQ's support. Who that benefits, what with the Liberal scandels, the perception of the Tories as a Western Canada party and the total lack of an NDP organisation in Quebec, I've really no idea at all.
Btw, the Tories are thought of (by some people) to have a chance in two ridings in Quebec; Pontiac (a rural riding in the Ottawa Valley) and Louis St. Laurent (affluent (IIRC) riding in Quebec City). If the 2004 results are anything to go by, Louis St. Laurent is far more likely, despite the riding's history. The Grit M.P for Pontiac is an Anglo (I think. His surname is Smith...) which hurts the Tories a lot there methinks.

Pontiac is an anglo area. I can see it going Conservative in the future, because it is kinda like Renfrew County across the border. However, the riding still has a lot of francophone pockets. I would imagine the western part of the riding to be where the Conservative support is.

[Emsworth]

Interesting:

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2005/12/02/elxn-layton-sask.html

Interesting indeed. Layton is probably right; in most ridings, the NDP and the Liberals combined outpolled the Conservatives. Of course, only a few of these (perhaps as few as two) were close enough for strategic voting to have hypothetically made a difference. Interestingly, in those two cases (Saskatoon-Humboldt and Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre), it would have been advantageous for the NDP to vote strategically for the Liberals, rather than vice versa.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting:

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2005/12/02/elxn-layton-sask.html

Interesting indeed. Layton is probably right; in most ridings, the NDP and the Liberals combined outpolled the Conservatives. Of course, only a few of these (perhaps as few as two) were close enough for strategic voting to have hypothetically made a difference. Interestingly, in those two cases (Saskatoon-Humboldt and Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre), it would have been advantageous for the NDP to vote strategically for the Liberals, rather than vice versa.

Hahaha! Awesome move, Layton. What goes around, comes around

[Siege40]

I've been looking at every seat's election in the last election. The Conservatives didn't beat the Liberals in any riding that I'm familiar with. If they did, it was a riding with the block receiving in excess of 40, or 50%, so winning is highly unlikely.

Layton's statements are largely true out West, particularly in the case of BC, and SK. Liberals were the third party in a lot of instances. Good old fashion pay back against the Liberals may be in order, and hopefully it'll be the NDP extracting the benefits.

Also, I believe that Alberta will likely be awash in a Blue Tide. The Liberals can't hold those Edmonton ridings if recent polls are accurate.

Siege

[Hatman 🍁]

I've been looking at every seat's election in the last election. The Conservatives didn't beat the Liberals in any riding that I'm familiar with. If they did, it was a riding with the block receiving in excess of 40, or 50%, so winning is highly unlikely.

Layton's statements are largely true out West, particularly in the case of BC, and SK. Liberals were the third party in a lot of instances. Good old fashion pay back against the Liberals may be in order, and hopefully it'll be the NDP extracting the benefits.

Also, I believe that Alberta will likely be awash in a Blue Tide. The Liberals can't hold those Edmonton ridings if recent polls are accurate.

Siege

You must have glanced over Louis-Saint-Laurent then:

        Bloc Québécois    Bernard Cleary    17,248    38.4    +1.4
        Conservative    Josée Verner    13,967    31.1    +7.6
        Liberal    Michel Fragasso    10,025    22.3    -15.6
        N.D.P.    Christopher Bojanowski    1,369    3.1    +1.3
        Green    Yonnel Bonaventure    1,243    2.8    +2.8
        Independent    Jean-Guy Carignan    563    1.3    +1.3
        Independent    Henri Gauvin    332    0.7    +0.7
        Communist    Dominique Théberge    119    0.3    +0.3

pwned!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

EKOS poll (released 3rd of December)... lot's and lot's of internals to poke at...

National Summary
Lib 34.1%
Con 27.4%
NDP 18.4%
BQ 14%
Grn 6%

B.C
Lib 35%
NDP 30%
Con 27%
Grn 10%

Alberta
Con 54%
Lib 21%
NDP 15%
Grn 10%

Prairies
NDP 34%
Lib 34%
Con 27%
Grn 4%

Ontario
Lib 43%
Con 31%
NDP 18%
Grn 8%

Quebec
BQ 58%
Lib 21%
Con 11%
NDP 9%
Grn 2%

Atlantic
Lib 50%
Con 30%
NDP 20%

DEMOGRAPHICS

Men
Lib 34%
Con 28%
NDP 17%
BQ 15%
Grn 6%

Women
Lib 34%
Con 27%
NDP 20%
BQ 13%
Grn 6%

Under 25's
Lib 28%
Con 25%
NDP 16%
BQ 19%
Grn 12%

25-44
Lib 31%
Con 25%
NDP 21%
BQ 17%
Grn 6%

45-64
Lib 35%
Con 31%
NDP 18%
BQ 11%
Grn 4%

Lib 44%
Con 30%
NDP 15%
BQ 8%
Grn 3%

Hschool
Lib 35%
Con 28%
NDP 17%
BQ 17%
Grn 4%

Coll
Con 30%
Lib 27%
NDP 20%
BQ 16%
Grn 8%

Univ
Lib 40%
Con 25%
NDP 19%
BQ 10%
Grn 6%

INCOME

<$20k
Lib 35%
Con 20%
NDP 19%
BQ 18%
Grn 9%

20-39k
Lib 27%
Con 26%
NDP 24%
BQ 18%
Grn 6%

40-59k
Lib 33%
Con 27%
NDP 17%
BQ 16%
Grn 7%

60-79k
Lib 31%
Con 28%
NDP 21%
BQ 15%
Grn 6%

80-99k
Lib 32%
Con 30%
NDP 22%
BQ 12%
Grn 4%

100k+
Lib 40%
Con 32%
NDP 17%
BQ 9%
Grn 2%

ISSUES

Most important issue: Heath & Education 53%, Economy 20%, Ethics 14%, Fiscal Issues 11%
Liberals strongest on the economy and fiscal issues, NDP on heath & education and the Tories on ethics.

FAVOURED OUTCOME

Liberal minority 49%, Conservative minority 42%. Over 62% of voters think that a new ruling party would be a good thing.

MOST UNPALTABLE PARTY

Con 32%, Lib 29%, NDP 24%, BQ 20%
Regionally the Liberals are especially unpalatable in Alberta (45%) and the Conservatives are especially unpalatable in the Prairies (44%).

Sample Size 1,308
MoE 2.7%
Weighted? Yes

[Siege40]

I've been looking at every seat's election in the last election. The Conservatives didn't beat the Liberals in any riding that I'm familiar with. If they did, it was a riding with the block receiving in excess of 40, or 50%, so winning is highly unlikely.

Layton's statements are largely true out West, particularly in the case of BC, and SK. Liberals were the third party in a lot of instances. Good old fashion pay back against the Liberals may be in order, and hopefully it'll be the NDP extracting the benefits.

Also, I believe that Alberta will likely be awash in a Blue Tide. The Liberals can't hold those Edmonton ridings if recent polls are accurate.

Siege

You must have glanced over Louis-Saint-Laurent then:

        Bloc Québécois    Bernard Cleary    17,248    38.4    +1.4
        Conservative    Josée Verner    13,967    31.1    +7.6
        Liberal    Michel Fragasso    10,025    22.3    -15.6
        N.D.P.    Christopher Bojanowski    1,369    3.1    +1.3
        Green    Yonnel Bonaventure    1,243    2.8    +2.8
        Independent    Jean-Guy Carignan    563    1.3    +1.3
        Independent    Henri Gauvin    332    0.7    +0.7
        Communist    Dominique Théberge    119    0.3    +0.3

pwned!

What's wrong with that riding...

Siege

[Hatman 🍁]

EKOS poll (released 3rd of December)... lot's and lot's of internals to poke at...

National Summary
Lib 34.1%
Con 27.4%
NDP 18.4%
BQ 14%
Grn 6%

B.C
Lib 35%
NDP 30%
Con 27%
Grn 10%

Alberta
Con 54%
Lib 21%
NDP 15%
Grn 10%

Prairies
NDP 34%
Lib 34%
Con 27%
Grn 4%

Ontario
Lib 43%
Con 31%
NDP 18%
Grn 8%

Quebec
BQ 58%
Lib 21%
Con 11%
NDP 9%
Grn 2%

Atlantic
Lib 50%
Con 30%
NDP 20%

DEMOGRAPHICS

Men
Lib 34%
Con 28%
NDP 17%
BQ 15%
Grn 6%

Women
Lib 34%
Con 27%
NDP 20%
BQ 13%
Grn 6%

Under 25's
Lib 28%
Con 25%
NDP 16%
BQ 19%
Grn 12%

25-44
Lib 31%
Con 25%
NDP 21%
BQ 17%
Grn 6%

45-64
Lib 35%
Con 31%
NDP 18%
BQ 11%
Grn 4%

Lib 44%
Con 30%
NDP 15%
BQ 8%
Grn 3%

Hschool
Lib 35%
Con 28%
NDP 17%
BQ 17%
Grn 4%

Coll
Con 30%
Lib 27%
NDP 20%
BQ 16%
Grn 8%

Univ
Lib 40%
Con 25%
NDP 19%
BQ 10%
Grn 6%

INCOME

<$20k
Lib 35%
Con 20%
NDP 19%
BQ 18%
Grn 9%

20-39k
Lib 27%
Con 26%
NDP 24%
BQ 18%
Grn 6%

40-59k
Lib 33%
Con 27%
NDP 17%
BQ 16%
Grn 7%

60-79k
Lib 31%
Con 28%
NDP 21%
BQ 15%
Grn 6%

80-99k
Lib 32%
Con 30%
NDP 22%
BQ 12%
Grn 4%

100k+
Lib 40%
Con 32%
NDP 17%
BQ 9%
Grn 2%

ISSUES

Most important issue: Heath & Education 53%, Economy 20%, Ethics 14%, Fiscal Issues 11%
Liberals strongest on the economy and fiscal issues, NDP on heath & education and the Tories on ethics.

FAVOURED OUTCOME

Liberal minority 49%, Conservative minority 42%. Over 62% of voters think that a new ruling party would be a good thing.

MOST UNPALTABLE PARTY

Con 32%, Lib 29%, NDP 24%, BQ 20%
Regionally the Liberals are especially unpalatable in Alberta (45%) and the Conservatives are especially unpalatable in the Prairies (44%).

Sample Size 1,308
MoE 2.7%
Weighted? Yes

Another poll I missed! Damn school work. Time to sign up for work

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Two new polls (one some outfit called "Strategic Counsel". Never heard of them before, no idea how good they are, and one by SES. Pretty average if last election is any indication)... both are trackers so be very careful:

Strategic Counsel

Lib 35%, Con 29%, NDP 16%, BQ 14%, Grn 6%

SES

Lib 38%, Con 30%, NDP 16%, BQ 12%, Grn 5%

There are regional stuff for both, but I don't see the point to post that here, partly because I'm sceptical enough about tracker polls to start with (and putting much or any faith in a breakdown from a tracker poll is kinda slow...) and partly because they're just showing a carbon copy of the 2004 results.
I will mention one though; SES has the BQ on 47% in Quebec, a notably lower figure than in most recent published polls.

C'mon, a proper poll has to be out soon...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Layton has switched his position on the Clarity Act; he now supports it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Martin is expected to call for a handgun ban

[Siege40]

I'm glad Layton flip-flopped, but wish he hadn't had to do it. I don't know why he, or Harper for that matter are bothering with Quebec, they should focus on British Columbia and Ontario respectively.

If polls are any indicatorwe aren't seeing any real change since the previous election.

Siege