Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Platypus]

Are we going to lose Landslide Annie?

[Emsworth]

Is there a real chance that any party will obtain a majority? Or is it pretty much certain that we will have another minority government?

[Hatman 🍁]

Are the Conservatives ahead in any provinces? (since they're up 1 point nationally, and down 7 in the praries, they should be up somehere[?])

You mean are they ahead in the polls in any provinces? Of course, AB, SK and MB I am pretty sure about. Not sure about BC, it flips between the three parties. Ontario is close (1 point separation)

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Yes, the two seats they won were Jean Charest's in Sherbrooke and Elsie Wayne's in Saint John. Oddly enough, neither are held by the tories today.

Are we going to lose Landslide Annie?

Who knows with her. Perhaps.

Is there a real chance that any party will obtain a majority? Or is it pretty much certain that we will have another minority government?

Not unless the Liberals make inroads in Quebec (need a complete meltdown of the BQ) or win back seats in Ontario. The Conservatives have to clean up in Ontario as well. A majority is very unlikey. But then again, what's the fun in a majority government?

[Kevinstat]

Are the Conservatives ahead in any provinces? (since they're up 1 point nationally, and down 7 in the praries, they should be up somehere[?])

They could be behind the Grits in some provinces, and behind the Dippers in others, but still have the largest support overall according to the same poll because they are close enough to each of the other parties (not counting the BQ, which will only be the second largest party when the federalist opposition parties are badly divided, and then only likely in terms of seats rather than % support) in the provinces where they are behind that party and far enough ahead of each party in the provinces where the tories are ahead of that other party that they are actually in the lead nationwide.  That could theoretically happen in a general election, but is very unlikely.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gurmant Grewel (one reason why the Tories are polling badly in BC) won't be seeking re-election http://www.cbc.ca/story/canadavotes2006/national/2005/11/29/grewal051129.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some interesting articles:

Tory "hit list"

Interesting to see that they think they'll lose seats in Saskatchewan

Big drop in Liberal support among minorities

Trouble in Etobicoke

Bellwether Ridings

[Hatman 🍁]

Some interesting articles:

Tory "hit list"

Interesting to see that they think they'll lose seats in Saskatchewan

Big drop in Liberal support among minorities

Trouble in Etobicoke

Bellwether Ridings

My riding has been targeted! OH NOES!!

Can the NDP win in Saskatchewan? I hope so, but I have my doubts. They would if the ridings weren't so damn gerrymandered.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My riding has been targeted! OH NOES!!

On that subject, has a sign war started yet or is it too early?

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They should be able to; the NDP are certainly polling a lot better out there than they were in 2004 and so many ridings were so close.
Regina-Qu'Appelle is the most likely to flip back; Nystrom is running again and the Tory incumbent hasn't been the most impressive of the 2004 intake to put it mildly...

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True, but's it's also important to remember that the electorate in Saskatchewan is unusually fickle even for Canada...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Key for the demographic maps (first set will be up pretty soon)...



About two seconds after uploading the image I spotted a typo. Damn.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hey! maps are my job!

(yes yes, I know I created a thread, and only made one map, but I have been busy! Classes are almost over though )

My riding has been targeted! OH NOES!!

On that subject, has a sign war started yet or is it too early?

Not here, but I would imagine there are in other parts of the country. I believe Ottawa has a by-law that states that signs can only go up within 50 days of the election. That means we'll start seeing them next week. I'll send pics though when they do come, and I might even venture into Gatineau to find some Bloc signs!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hey! maps are my job!

And very nice one's you make as well

I believe Ottawa has a by-law that states that signs can only go up within 50 days of the election.

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Until the whole Sponsorship mess broke out I could have made a joke about that...

[Hatman 🍁]

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Until the whole Sponsorship mess broke out I could have made a joke about that...
[/quote]

I bet, but it's not funny any more. Well, I'd expect to find some in the Gatineau riding, but in Hull-Aylmer, not as likely.

[Siege40]

I don't know if it's just me, and my area, but it doesn't feel like an election season to me. It feels very business as usual, very much unlike the last election. It seemed that last time the Canadian public wanted one and were tuned in. Perhaps the public hasn't tuned in yet, leaving this perception on my end.

Siege

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't know if it's just me, and my area, but it doesn't feel like an election season to me. It feels very business as usual, very much unlike the last election. It seemed that last time the Canadian public wanted one and were tuned in. Perhaps the public hasn't tuned in yet, leaving this perception on my end.

Siege

The Canadian public never wants an election. Last time it was in the summer, and people wanted to go on vacation.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hey! maps are my job!

(yes yes, I know I created a thread, and only made one map, but I have been busy! Classes are almost over though )

My riding has been targeted! OH NOES!!

On that subject, has a sign war started yet or is it too early?

Not here, but I would imagine there are in other parts of the country. I believe Ottawa has a by-law that states that signs can only go up within 50 days of the election. That means we'll start seeing them next week. I'll send pics though when they do come, and I might even venture into Gatineau to find some Bloc signs!

My dad has just told me he saw some signs out in Nepean-Carleton of Pierre Pollievre. He is either breaking the law or I am wrong. There have been laws broken in the past in this regard, so that may just be the case.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What punishments are there for breaking by-laws in the area?

[Hatman 🍁]

What punishments are there for breaking by-laws in the area?

I don't know. Probably a fine or they'll make him take it down. This is assuming I am correct.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What punishments are there for breaking by-laws in the area?

I don't know. Probably a fine or they'll make him take it down. This is assuming I am correct.

Can't be a big fine if they're putting the signs up

[Hatman 🍁]

What punishments are there for breaking by-laws in the area?

I don't know. Probably a fine or they'll make him take it down. This is assuming I am correct.

Can't be a big fine if they're putting the signs up

Well, I just got an email from the Ottawa Centre NDP asking if I wanted to help them put up signs Thusday, Friday and Saturday. I will deffinately give it a shot for a Saturday.

[Max Power]

Can the NDP win in Saskatchewan? I hope so, but I have my doubts. They would if the ridings weren't so damn gerrymandered.

Well, Sask is to the NDP as Kansas is to the Democrats....they can be elected there, just not on the national level.

[Hatman 🍁]

Can the NDP win in Saskatchewan? I hope so, but I have my doubts. They would if the ridings weren't so damn gerrymandered.

Well, Sask is to the NDP as Kansas is to the Democrats....they can be elected there, just not on the national level.

What are you smoking Casey? Saskatchewan is the birth place of the NDP! They can very easily win in Saskatchewan.

[Max Power]

Can the NDP win in Saskatchewan? I hope so, but I have my doubts. They would if the ridings weren't so damn gerrymandered.

Well, Sask is to the NDP as Kansas is to the Democrats....they can be elected there, just not on the national level.

What are you smoking Casey? Saskatchewan is the birth place of the NDP! They can very easily win in Saskatchewan.

The NDP could do great at the local level in Sask, but they can't win the rural ridings. If they win anything, it will be a riding or two in the south of Sask. Kansas is competitive in local races, but not so nationally. Sask is similiar. I think it will go reliably Conservative this time. The NDP will obviously make gains in B.C., Ontario, and Edmonton. This is an American's point of view, however.

[Hatman 🍁]

Can the NDP win in Saskatchewan? I hope so, but I have my doubts. They would if the ridings weren't so damn gerrymandered.

Well, Sask is to the NDP as Kansas is to the Democrats....they can be elected there, just not on the national level.

What are you smoking Casey? Saskatchewan is the birth place of the NDP! They can very easily win in Saskatchewan.

The NDP could do great at the local level in Sask, but they can't win the rural ridings. If they win anything, it will be a riding or two in the south of Sask. Kansas is competitive in local races, but not so nationally. Sask is similiar. I think it will go reliably Conservative this time. The NDP will obviously make gains in B.C., Ontario, and Edmonton. This is an American's point of view, however.

Edmonton?

True, the NDP doesnt do well in rural Saskatchewan, but they do well in Saskatoon and Regina. Trouble is, the ridings are gerrymandered to reduce any urban influence, making many marginal ridings instead of one or two safe NDP seats in each city.

[Polkergeist]

If a Conservative Minority Govt is elected, how long will it last ?

The Tories don't seem to have no natural allies in the last parliament and no new parties seem to be entering into the new parliament. So how can they govern ?

[Siege40]

The NDP can pick up a riding here and there in Saskatchewan, if they preform well and the Conservatives badly, as many as 4 can be theirs.

My question is, is Western Arctic truely competitive?

Siege