Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[bullmoose88]

What would happen if ( and its a big if ) if the Liberals fiish 3rd in seats behind the Conservatives and the NDP, who would they support in govt ?

Well, if they did finish third, we would be looking at a Conservative majority.

You sure?

I mean thats the probable outcome...

but what if there's a much bigger swing from Lib to NDP than there is between Lib to Con (and the Con to NDP or vica versa is near 0)

[Polkergeist]

OK, let me give a scenario using the Hill and Knowlton election projection you gave the link for

Premise: 15 % swing from Liberal to NDP ( I know its a bit wild but for this exercise it will do.)

Lets say Liberal voters sick of the corruption scandal but fearful of a conservative govt vote for the NDP on the above swing this gives the following result:

Con: 29.6% 103 seats
NDP: 30.7% 82 seats
Lib: 21.7% 55 seats
BQ: 12.4 % 67 seats

So with the Liberals last they have no chance of forming a govt. Lets look at the other parties:

Conservatives: Only need one other party to form a govt but options are problematic. NDP is too left and by now is seeking its own chance in power and BQ is too left and alienates their own core supporters in Western Canada. So they approach the Liberals for cross bench support. Maybe even a coalition.

NDP: could form govt but needs both Liberal and BQ support, could form coalition with Libs to keep them tight and BQ support on crossbenches to keep them at arms length. Ultimate glue that keeps this coaltion/alliance together, fear of conservatives

BQ: No chance, can't protest against Ottawa if you are Ottawa.

So the 4 options are:

1. Conservative Minority with Liberal Support
2. Conservative-Liberal Coaltion Majority Govermment
3. NDP-Liberal Coalition Minority with BQ support
4. NDP Minority with Liberal and BQ support.

So the which is the most probable outcome ?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, an NDP government is possible in the future, but not likely for 2005. The reason I am optimistic about the future is that the poll that I helped conduct last month found about 40% of Canadians would either vote NDP or support them as their second choice. However, I would be surprised if they broke 20% this year.

However, if this is the case

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The Conservatives would attempt to govern like the Liberals are now (no coallitions) but would ultimately fail. That's what a lot of people say. 103 + 55 is a majority, so my personal prediction would be an attempt at a grand coallition like in Germany. Although, with the way the Conservatives have been at the throats of the Liberals, I am beginning to agree with others who think that we would be heading to the polls again in a few months.

[Jake]

No chance of the Bloc backing either the NDP or Conservatives?

[Hatman 🍁]

No chance of the Bloc backing either the NDP or Conservatives?

Any party would be afraid to work with the Bloc, because they a separatists, and that is not cool with a lot of voters. However, I could see the NDP working with them (not in a formal coallition though) because they are so similar policy wise (outside of separatism of course). Many people say the Tories and the Bloc would work together as well, but that makes little sense. They only really agree on provincial rights issues.

[Polkergeist]

Well, an NDP government is possible in the future, but not likely for 2005. The reason I am optimistic about the future is that the poll that I helped conduct last month found about 40% of Canadians would either vote NDP or support them as their second choice. However, I would be surprised if they broke 20% this year.

However, if this is the case

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Conservatives would attempt to govern like the Liberals are now (no coallitions) but would ultimately fail. That's what a lot of people say. 103 + 55 is a majority, so my personal prediction would be an attempt at a grand coallition like in Germany. Although, with the way the Conservatives have been at the throats of the Liberals, I am beginning to agree with others who think that we would be heading to the polls again in a few months.

This leads me to my next question. If the Liberals have to chosse between the Tories and the NDP wills this cause internal infighting between those in the Liberal Party who are into centre-left point of view and the free-marketeers who would not be to out of place within the Conservatives but for social conservatism?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, an NDP government is possible in the future, but not likely for 2005. The reason I am optimistic about the future is that the poll that I helped conduct last month found about 40% of Canadians would either vote NDP or support them as their second choice. However, I would be surprised if they broke 20% this year.

However, if this is the case

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Conservatives would attempt to govern like the Liberals are now (no coallitions) but would ultimately fail. That's what a lot of people say. 103 + 55 is a majority, so my personal prediction would be an attempt at a grand coallition like in Germany. Although, with the way the Conservatives have been at the throats of the Liberals, I am beginning to agree with others who think that we would be heading to the polls again in a few months.

This leads me to my next question. If the Liberals have to chosse between the Tories and the NDP wills this cause internal infighting between those in the Liberal Party who are into centre-left point of view and the free-marketeers who would not be to out of place within the Conservatives but for social conservatism?

Well in this parliament, the Liberals were co-operating more with the NDP than with the Conservatives. It seems the tories and the Liebrals hate eachother so much. Plus, you have to understand the people who vote Liberal do so because they are not socially Conservative. (even if they vote for a socially Conservative Liberal). They would have little tolerance of a Liberal government co-operating with the Conservatives.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Many people say the Tories and the Bloc would work together as well, but that makes little sense. They only really agree on provincial rights issues.

I think that idea comes from the fact that the BQ basically broke away from the old PC party after the collapse of Meech Lake.

[KEmperor]

So can anyone give me some good links so I can familiarize myself with this thing?  It's definately happening in January?

[Hatman 🍁]

So can anyone give me some good links so I can familiarize myself with this thing?  It's definately happening in January?

Most likely. We won't know until Monday.

Some good websites:

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election%2C_2006
* http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/
* http://www.canadawebpages.com/

[Dave from Michigan]

is it even possible for the conservative party to win a majority.

[Hatman 🍁]

is it even possible for the conservative party to win a majority.

Anything is possible, but I would say a majority is very unlikely. Especially without any support in Quebec.

[bullmoose88]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

Like Scotland, Conservatives used to do really well there but have since been just about wiped out.

According to Earl's awesome maps, PC got 84% of the seats in Quebec in the 1988 election. 

[Harry Hayfield]

is it even possible for the conservative party to win a majority.

My personal opinion (remembering a target table I constructed post 2004) the Conservatives need something like a 7% swing to get a majority of 1, and about 10% to get a working majority

[Hatman 🍁]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

Like Scotland, Conservatives used to do really well there but have since been just about wiped out.

According to Earl's awesome maps, PC got 84% of the seats in Quebec in the 1988 election. 

I guess you're talking about the one's on Wikipedia?

Anyways, the tories have always had troubles winning in Quebec, but when they do win, they win big. In the 80's, Mulroney teamed up with nationalists in Quebec in order to get his majority. However, before and after Mulroney, seats in Quebec for the tories have been few and far between. The Conservatives finished 2nd place in one riding in Quebec, so it's not out of the question. However, with Harper as leader, the Conservatives can kiss seats in Quebec goodbye.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

Like Scotland, Conservatives used to do really well there but have since been just about wiped out.

According to Earl's awesome maps, PC got 84% of the seats in Quebec in the 1988 election. 

I guess you're talking about the one's on Wikipedia?

Anyways, the tories have always had troubles winning in Quebec, but when they do win, they win big. In the 80's, Mulroney teamed up with nationalists in Quebec in order to get his majority. However, before and after Mulroney, seats in Quebec for the tories have been few and far between. The Conservatives finished 2nd place in one riding in Quebec, so it's not out of the question. However, with Harper as leader, the Conservatives can kiss seats in Quebec goodbye.

At least the PC's at their very worst got a few seats in Quebec.  CPC definately needs someone other than Stephen Harper as leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

Like Scotland, Conservatives used to do really well there but have since been just about wiped out.

According to Earl's awesome maps, PC got 84% of the seats in Quebec in the 1988 election. 

I guess you're talking about the one's on Wikipedia?

Anyways, the tories have always had troubles winning in Quebec, but when they do win, they win big. In the 80's, Mulroney teamed up with nationalists in Quebec in order to get his majority. However, before and after Mulroney, seats in Quebec for the tories have been few and far between. The Conservatives finished 2nd place in one riding in Quebec, so it's not out of the question. However, with Harper as leader, the Conservatives can kiss seats in Quebec goodbye.

At least the PC's at their very worst got a few seats in Quebec.  CPC definately needs someone other than Stephen Harper as leader.

Yeah.

On another note, before Mulroney the last previous success for the tories was Diefenbaker, a guy from Saskatchewan. Apparently he formed an alliance with Maurice Duplessis, and the Liberal leader wasn't from Quebec either. Of course, this was before the Quiet revolution, so Quebec was the opposite of what it is today. They would try to burn Andre Boisclair at the stake.

[Dave from Michigan]

whats bad about Harper

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

whats bad about Harper

He's perceived as being a bit to the right of where he ought to be, and as a former CA'er he is a liability outside western Canada.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

and as a former CA'er he is a liability outside western Canada.

...and as a carpet-bagger from Ontario he's not much use out there; especially in B.C...

[Dave from Michigan]

the Canadian Allaince and Progressive conservative parties merged a few years back right.  It was the progressive conservative party that won in the 80's.  Do people not like the merger or view the new joint conservative party as too conservative.

[bullmoose88]

What would it take for the Conservative to win in Quebec? or is that impossible...and they are basically facing the same sort of extremely uphill battle that the UK tories have in Scotland and Wales?

(In other words, is there any sort of center right bloc there?)

Like Scotland, Conservatives used to do really well there but have since been just about wiped out.

According to Earl's awesome maps, PC got 84% of the seats in Quebec in the 1988 election. 

Thing is, if I remember correctly, a lot of the Tory vote in scotland had nothing to do with conservatism and everything to do with the fact that the Tories were the "unionist" party (so much so that they were the last party to get a majority of the vote).

So now that the unionist question isn't as well...important (or at least the reason why people vote the way they do)...the left parties do much better...

I'm wondering if Quebec is just that much more leftist or something relative to the rest of canada (especially Ontario)

[bullmoose88]

I think Harper deserves another shot...if only to discredit the Western Populist Conservatives. Although, he seems eloquent enough otherwise.


I just wonder what will happen to MacKay...I'd like to see him take control...being a former PCer and all.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I think Harper deserves another shot...if only to discredit the Western Populist Conservatives. Although, he seems eloquent enough otherwise.


I just wonder what will happen to MacKay...I'd like to see him take control...being a former PCer and all.

I'd also prefer MacKay, but Jean Charest would be nice too.