Julian Castro is on Clinton's,shortlist for VP

[Zioneer]

I agree Becerra strictly dominates Castro as a VP choice for Clinton.  He's also the child of undocumented immigrants which would make his life story even more interesting.  Other options:

Generic Obama Coalition Dems ("Safe" picks):

Kaine: Probably the strongest in this category- early Obama endorser + history of winning VA + speaks Spanish+ D Gov to appoint successor.  He also retained greater white working class support than Obama (albeit against a weaker opponent).  He's not particularly young and there's the whole vulnerable 2017 special election thing, though.

Heinrich: Young + widely considered handsome + from a diverse former swing state + environmental activist cred.  The major downside is Martinez would get to R+1 an otherwise Likely D seat.

Hickenlooper: Only Dem governor reelected in a swing state in 2014 + passed Walker-style aggressively partisan state agenda during 2013-14 trifecta and lived to tell about it + gun control cred.  He's implemented Obama's entire 2nd term agenda in a swing state, something basically no one else has yet accomplished and retained some moderate cred while doing it.  Of course, he's also a 63 year old white guy. 

Klobuchar: mainstream left woman + landslides in lean D MN + help with midwestern swing voters + D Gov to appoint successor Downsides: not charismatic + doesn't add anything novel to ticket 

Latinos

Becerra: Proven political success + presumably already heavily vetted by former opponents + aggressive progressive + powerful life story.  Downsides: from CA + would be very polarizing + not young

Castro: Young + unique (1st mayor as VP) + background.  Downsides: very untested politically (Palin risk) + has made substantial gaffes in the past + from TX

Populists

Warren: aggressive progressive + great at fundraising + help with base turnout + woman with compelling life story.  Downsides: the whole fake Indian controversy + potentially too far left for many swing voters + from MA + R+1 in senate from normally safe D state (but veto-proof legislature could prevent this

Bullock: held conservative-trending ancestrally D state + worked with R legislature to get Medicaid expansion + considerable white working class appeal.  Downsides: The whole John Walsh thing + likely R pickup of governorship + untested outside of small, idiosyncratic electorate (some Palin risk)

Warner: repeatedly successful in VA + D Gov to appoint successor + moderate populist persona  Downsides: nearly lost in 2014 after coasting + white working class appeal may have evaporated + seat not up until 2020 if he stays in Senate + pretty much strictly dominated by Kaine now

Manchin: has uniquely strong white working class appeal + held ancestrally D right trending state during 2010/12 + tried for gun control in very inhospitable place + can retire in December to assure D appointee  Downsides: likely too conservative for national D's + very independent streak from national party (if senate was 50/50, he would probably break some ties for Republicans) + turnout risk from environmental groups

Then there's the remote possibility of a coup de grace like getting Sandoval or Martinez to switch parties after Trump clinches the nomination, but beyond that scenario, there's nothing to gain IMO from choosing a Republican/former Republican.

Becerra also doesn't look like he's 57-58.



He looks late 40s at worst, and looks pretty distinguished, so while he won't actively give off an aura of youth, he won't re-enforce the "Clinton's ticket is old" idea like Kaine, Warner, Warren, Hickenlooper, or whoever would bring up.

Though I still think Hickenlooper would be a good pick despite being an old white guy with a goofy surname. Kaine would be the boring choice, and wouldn't really add anything; I think he's overrated.

Klobuchar would be an intriguing choice if Hillary wants to double down on the "first woman ticket" thing.

Castro is of course the high-risk, high-reward Palinesque demographics choice, though I do think he's more polished than Palin ever was.

Warren, Bullock, Manchin, and Warner are unlikely for the reasons you mentioned.

[Bull Moose Base]

That's a lot of replies without anyone pointing out that there's no evidence Castro is on her shortlist or that she even has one yet.

[Zache]

I think Manchin would only be picked as a Hail Mary if she is trailing and only getting ~25% of white men in her polling.  However, the odds that she will need to Sista Souljah the social justice activists have gone up with this week's events at Yale and Mizzou.  We'll see. 

I also forgot to mention Booker and Patrick, both of whom could help assure continued Obama-level black support and turnout.  Booker probably dominates Patrick here because Patrick barely made it out of 2010 in a 60% Obama state and he now works for Bain Capital, which could get very awkward if Republicans run Obama's anti-Romney ads against Patrick.

Isn't Booker too Wall Street-friendly for the base?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think Castro would be a mistake.

[henster]

Castro is not fluent in Spanish at all. What would he add to ticket beside being brown and young? A lot of  Latinos watch Univison/Telemundo its important to be able to go on those networks and communicate your message. Xavier Becerra hands down is the better choice, there's no question about it. The real question is how Julian Castro is even in consideration?

[henster]

I think Manchin would only be picked as a Hail Mary if she is trailing and only getting ~25% of white men in her polling.  However, the odds that she will need to Sista Souljah the social justice activists have gone up with this week's events at Yale and Mizzou.  We'll see. 

I also forgot to mention Booker and Patrick, both of whom could help assure continued Obama-level black support and turnout.  Booker probably dominates Patrick here because Patrick barely made it out of 2010 in a 60% Obama state and he now works for Bain Capital, which could get very awkward if Republicans run Obama's anti-Romney ads against Patrick.

Isn't Booker too Wall Street-friendly for the base?

That would be a risk.  But if she wants a black Dem who has won outside of a VRA district, she is unfortunately down to those two options.

If she's picking a black VP then I would it should be Deval Patrick, he's a great orator and has executive experience.

[King]

Castro is a lightweight.

The answer is to go with a firebrand that would make Hillary unpalatable for assassination and excite Bernie supporters. That is not Castro.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Castro is not fluent in Spanish at all. What would he add to ticket beside being brown and young? A lot of  Latinos watch Univison/Telemundo its important to be able to go on those networks and communicate your message. Xavier Becerra hands down is the better choice, there's no question about it. The real question is how Julian Castro is even in consideration?

Most of the Gen X voters are billingual, but only use it at home. He won in an overwhelming Latino state like TX, which isnt in play. But, most Gen X voters, Latino ones in Ca, speak English.

[Kingpoleon]

Clinton-Castro legimitately scares me. Julian Castro is more inexperienced than Sarah Palin, Dan Quayle, Dick Cheney, Paul Ryan, and every other Republican vice presidential nominee Democrats love to make fun of.

This is like a Scott "Establishment is Moderate" Walker-Dave Brat Republican ticket.

Booker or Heinrich surrender a Senate seat to LoBiondo/Whitman and Allen Weh or Heather Wilson, but at least it's not inexperience. If she really wants a minority as Vice President, she should go with Jared Polis, Deval Patrick, or Eric Garcetti.

[Asian Nazi]

Booker or Heinrich surrender a Senate seat to LoBiondo/Whitman and Allen Weh or Heather Wilson, but at least it's not inexperience. If she really wants a minority as Vice President, she should go with Jared Polis, Deval Patrick, or Eric Garcetti.

Eric Garcetti is less inexperienced than Julian Castro? 

Get out, clown.

[I support Sanders]

Quoted from the article:

Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.), a Clinton backer, offered another set of criteria he hopes will guide the search. Pascrell said the Democrats should be eyeing a more moderate figure — perhaps even a Republican — who can build bridges in regions where support for the Democrats has eroded.

This would be an interesting scenario.  Go for it.

If she's going to choose a Republican, or at least a former Republican, she would need to at least choose a progressive one, like Lincoln Chafee, lest the Democratic base stay home.

[Vega]

Brian Schatz would be a great choice.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Castro is not fluent in Spanish at all. What would he add to ticket beside being brown and young? A lot of  Latinos watch Univison/Telemundo its important to be able to go on those networks and communicate your message. Xavier Becerra hands down is the better choice, there's no question about it. The real question is how Julian Castro is even in consideration?

Most of the Gen X voters are billingual, but only use it at home. He won in an overwhelming Latino state like TX, which isnt in play. But, most Gen X voters, Latino ones in Ca, speak English.

Wat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Younger Latinos arent like their parents who are monolithic and want someone that speaks to them only in aspanish. They elected Castro in an overwhelming city like San Antonio. Dems need CO, NV. TRUMKA, UNION head said he wont put full support behind Clinton if she supports Fast Track, Kaine, who speaks Spanish, supports Fast Track.

[Mr. Morden]

Thread title is wrong.  There is no short list yet.  This is just Clinton's allies on Capitol Hill talking.  Though there was a story from way back in January, which included some names being floated by Clinton advisors, and Castro was among them:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/hillary-clinton-2016-elections-114586

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But it's really early.  I wouldn't take this stuff seriously.

[eric82oslo]

I don't think there is a single Republican that would run with Clinton on her ticket.

Thinking Crumpets is right. Collin Powell would do it con gusto. The only problem is that he is 80 years old or something, and would be like 89 in January 2025. If he's still alive at that point.

[eric82oslo]

Castro would be an extremely risky VP pick for Clinton.  He could easily end up being Palin 2.0.  IMO he only makes sense as a Hail Mary pick to boost Latino turnout if Clinton is losing polls by 5-10% in August.

The whole idea of putting a latino on the ticket would be to boost latino mobilization, which was beyond laughably low in both 2008 and 2012. Though it wouldn't be a small feat to flip Arizona either as the icing on the cake. Arizona and Texas are the two states where latino mobilization has been by far the lowest. Julian should be able to appeal to latino voters in those two states, though he'd be better served to spend the next 12 months learning Spanish intensely. I hope he'll get some time for that at least. At this point I fear that even Hillary knows more Spanish words than him lol.

[Higgs]

I wonder if Clinton would win West Virginia with Manchin on the ticket. I think she would but picking Manchin would alienate some Democratic voters (not that they would vote Republican) and would confirm what a lot of Bernie supporters are saying.

I'm sorry but you're delusional if you think Clinton has any chance at winning West Virginia. It doesn't matter who her VP is, West Virginia is voting Republican

[eric82oslo]

If Castro doesn't speak Spanish then he should start learning now.

Yep. I went from only knowing a few words and sentences in Spanish to speaking it fluently and even better than I spoke English in only three months, so in all fairness, 12 months is more than enough in order to learn a new language, especially one that is extremely similar in every way to English.

[Mister Mets]

I think Manchin would only be picked as a Hail Mary if she is trailing and only getting ~25% of white men in her polling.  However, the odds that she will need to Sista Souljah the social justice activists have gone up with this week's events at Yale and Mizzou.  We'll see. 

I also forgot to mention Booker and Patrick, both of whom could help assure continued Obama-level black support and turnout.  Booker probably dominates Patrick here because Patrick barely made it out of 2010 in a 60% Obama state and he now works for Bain Capital, which could get very awkward if Republicans run Obama's anti-Romney ads against Patrick.

Isn't Booker too Wall Street-friendly for the base?

That would be a risk.  But if she wants a black Dem who has won outside of a VRA district, she is unfortunately down to those two options.

Anthony Foxx was Mayor of Charlotte, North Carolina and Obama's Secretary of Transportation. He's as qualified as Castro, but comes from a swing state.

[Asian Nazi]

Yeah, Spanish is a pretty easy language for native English speakers to master.  I don't think Castro would have too much of a problem learning it if he had to.  The bigger problem I think is the fact that he doesn't speak it already, which makes me think that he isn't very close with the predominantly Spanish-speaking recent immigrants. 

That's a pretty big red flag, since these are the voters he's supposed to be mobilizing/attracting by being on the ticket.  If the main reaction of these voters is "Julian Who?", then having him on the ticket for that reason alone probably isn't worth it.  But I think having Castro on the ticket would also generally send a message to the whole electorate (not just Hispanics) that the Democrats are diverse/tolerant/the party of tomorrow.  Hence why he was the keynote speaker at the convention three years ago.

[henster]

Yeah, Spanish is a pretty easy language for native English speakers to master.  I don't think Castro would have too much of a problem learning it if he had to.  The bigger problem I think is the fact that he doesn't speak it already, which makes me think that he isn't very close with the predominantly Spanish-speaking recent immigrants. 

That's a pretty big red flag, since these are the voters he's supposed to be mobilizing/attracting by being on the ticket.  If the main reaction of these voters is "Julian Who?", then having him on the ticket for that reason alone probably isn't worth it.  But I think having Castro on the ticket would also generally send a message to the whole electorate (not just Hispanics) that the Democrats are diverse/tolerant/the party of tomorrow.  Hence why he was the keynote speaker at the convention three years ago.

Yes I like the idea of having a Latino VP pick but it doesn't have to be Castro. There are Latinos to choose from that are far more experienced and speak fluently in the language unlike Castro. I think especially if Rubio is the nominee a Latino running mate is essential and especially one that can speak the language fluently and go on Univison/Telemundo etc. 

[I support Sanders]

I wonder if Clinton would win West Virginia with Manchin on the ticket. I think she would but picking Manchin would alienate some Democratic voters (not that they would vote Republican) and would confirm what a lot of Bernie supporters are saying.

I'm sorry but you're delusional if you think Clinton has any chance at winning West Virginia. It doesn't matter who her VP is, West Virginia is voting Republican

Clinton was extremely popular in West Virginia in 2008.

I wonder if Clinton would win West Virginia with Manchin on the ticket. I think she would but picking Manchin would alienate some Democratic voters (not that they would vote Republican) and would confirm what a lot of Bernie supporters are saying.

Manchin is too good to be Clinton's VP.

[Taco Truck 🚚]

Clinton-Castro legimitately scares me. Julian Castro is more inexperienced than Sarah Palin...

WTF?!

Geographic Region     Population
Alaska                          736,732
San Antonio               1.409 million

Castro was mayor of San Antonio for half a decade and he is currently a cabinet secretary.  Sarah Palin didn't even finish one term as governor.

[Zioneer]

Clinton-Castro legimitately scares me. Julian Castro is more inexperienced than Sarah Palin...

WTF?!

Geographic Region     Population
Alaska                          736,732
San Antonio               1.409 million

Castro was mayor of San Antonio for half a decade and he is currently a cabinet secretary.  Sarah Palin didn't even finish one term as governor.

Isn't San Antonio one of the "weak mayor, strong city council or manager" cities? Because if he had little power as mayor, that undercuts the argument of him having extensive experience.