LA: MRI: Edwards over 50%, leading by at least 11%

[Holmes]

I would change my rating for this race from Lean D to lean R after the slaugher of Dems all over the nation but predictions appear to be locked now.

Except if you look outside Kentucky it wasn't really a slaughter at all... (Dems +3-4 in NJ Assembly, Dems hold all seats in VA Senate and +1 in HoD, Dems take over Public Services Commission, re-elect Jim Hood, and maintain legislative status quo in Mississippi, take over SCOPA, etc.)

Of course this is true, but people love to exaggerate when it comes to election results.

Tonight does basically look like a draw nationwide, but the voters Edwards needs are a cultural extension of the voters Conway needed.  Granted, he doesn't need as many of them because Kentucky doesn't have a New Orleans, but this is a legitimate bad sign for him.

It may have been a "draw" last night, but Democrats picking up the Pennsylvania Supreme Court (ew, elected Supreme Court justices) and Issue 1 passing in Ohio (by a landslide) will help Democrats in the long-term.

[Holmes]

I would change my rating for this race from Lean D to lean R after the slaugher of Dems all over the nation but predictions appear to be locked now.

Except if you look outside Kentucky it wasn't really a slaughter at all... (Dems +3-4 in NJ Assembly, Dems hold all seats in VA Senate and +1 in HoD, Dems take over Public Services Commission, re-elect Jim Hood, and maintain legislative status quo in Mississippi, take over SCOPA, etc.)

Of course this is true, but people love to exaggerate when it comes to election results.

Tonight does basically look like a draw nationwide, but the voters Edwards needs are a cultural extension of the voters Conway needed.  Granted, he doesn't need as many of them because Kentucky doesn't have a New Orleans, but this is a legitimate bad sign for him.

It may have been a "draw" last night, but Democrats picking up the Pennsylvania Supreme Court (ew, elected Supreme Court justices) and Issue 1 passing in Ohio (by a landslide) will help Democrats in the long-term.

Issue 1 just means that the map has be re-gerrymandered every 4 years and places no restrictions on congressional maps.  It's a trojan horse.  PA is big, though.

Yes, Issue 1 was just for state legislature districts but it did put in place limits on how much a county can be split (so no more snakes by the lake, or carving up Cleveland to hell), and there is big incentive on the commission actually agreeing on a map (i.e. coming up with a fair one). The fact that it won so decisively is giving the same group that got in on the ballot momentum to get their congressional district version on the ballot next year.