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  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  LA: MRI: Edwards over 50%, leading by at least 11%
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Author Topic: LA: MRI: Edwards over 50%, leading by at least 11%  (Read 3744 times)
Miles
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« on: November 03, 2015, 01:07:53 pm »

Article.

With black turnout at 25%:

Edwards (D) - 54%
Vitter (R) - 38%

With black turnout at 20%:

Edwards - 51%
Vitter - 40%
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2015, 01:17:13 pm »

I wouldn't be surprised if Edwards won and Conway lost at this point. But, that can happen.
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2015, 01:20:35 pm »

FWIW, black turnout in the primary was 28%; I don't see why it would dip under 25%, much less down to 20%.

In the 2011 primary, which was the sleepiest Gov race in a while, it was 25.5%.

It actually increased for Landrieu in 2014 : 28.8% in the primary and up to 30.3% in the runoff.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2015, 01:21:35 pm »

Vitter is toast.
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Skye
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2015, 01:24:46 pm »

FWIW, black turnout in the primary was 28%; I don't see why it would dip under 25%, much less down to 20%.

In the 2011 primary, which was the sleepiest Gov race in a while, it was 25.5%.

It actually increased for Landrieu in 2014 : 28.8% in the primary and up to 30.3% in the runoff.
I recall seeing you rated this race as Leans R after the jungle. Do you still think that's the case?
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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2015, 01:27:19 pm »

^ Yeah, I'm feeling better Wink
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2015, 01:27:30 pm »

Hey Miles, does the media still cover the stories about Vitter's prostitute and the PI that stalked the sheriff or are they forgotten?
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Miles
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2015, 01:32:03 pm »

^ Yeah, I'm still seeing stories about it in local media. One of the popular talk show hosts, Jim Ensgter, for example, yesterday did a show with a lawyer that Vitter's PI targeted.
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Miles
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2015, 02:06:58 pm »

New Poll: Louisiana Governor by Other Source on 2015-10-28

Summary: D: 54%, R: 38%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2015, 05:52:06 pm »
« Edited: November 03, 2015, 11:51:29 pm by ElectionsGuy »

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henster
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2015, 05:56:07 pm »

I want to see a better pollster here before I start to feel more comfortable about this race.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2015, 05:57:38 pm »

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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter #ReopenAmerica
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2015, 06:37:30 pm »


I did out the map, and the Republicans still do win comfortably.  Anyway, Kentucky is very much up in the air.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2015, 10:37:26 pm »

After tonight, I have a hard time believing that Edwards can win. If Matt Bevin can easily win, so can Vitter. Candidate quality seems to be irrelevant these days.
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wifikitten
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2015, 10:38:32 pm »

I would change my rating for this race from Lean D to lean R after the slaugher of Dems all over the nation but predictions appear to be locked now.
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Cryptic
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2015, 10:39:39 pm »

After tonight, I have a hard time believing that Edwards can win. If Matt Bevin can easily win, so can Vitter. Candidate quality seems to be irrelevant these days.

Unfortunately, I agree. I'll believe an Edwards win when I see it.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2015, 12:01:30 am »

Conway was always in the margin of error. Edwards is leading by huge, significant margins. Edwards will probably win a lot more narrowly, but I say he still wins solidly, 6-8 points.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2015, 12:05:04 am »

The difference is Edwards is above 50% in these polls. Don't let what happened tonight fool you. Edwards has an advantage here.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2015, 12:05:41 am »

The problem with comparing this with Kentucky is that there are several polls showing that even if the undecideds to break towards Vitter, it still is not enough for him to win, he actually would have to flip support from Edwards. Scandal tarred candidates tend not to flip support that easily.
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2015, 12:06:19 am »

I would change my rating for this race from Lean D to lean R after the slaugher of Dems all over the nation but predictions appear to be locked now.

Except if you look outside Kentucky it wasn't really a slaughter at all... (Dems +3-4 in NJ Assembly, Dems hold all seats in VA Senate and +1 in HoD, Dems take over Public Services Commission, re-elect Jim Hood, and maintain legislative status quo in Mississippi, take over SCOPA, etc.)
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DrScholl
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« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2015, 12:11:05 am »

I would change my rating for this race from Lean D to lean R after the slaugher of Dems all over the nation but predictions appear to be locked now.

Except if you look outside Kentucky it wasn't really a slaughter at all... (Dems +3-4 in NJ Assembly, Dems hold all seats in VA Senate and +1 in HoD, Dems take over Public Services Commission, re-elect Jim Hood, and maintain legislative status quo in Mississippi, take over SCOPA, etc.)

Of course this is true, but people love to exaggerate when it comes to election results.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2015, 12:16:38 am »

Democrats also picked up a House district in Missouri while filling a vacant seat previously held by a Democrat.
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kansasdemocrat
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2015, 12:20:37 am »

Democrats also picked up a House district in Missouri while filling a vacant seat previously held by a Democrat.

So we won the seat in Independence?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2015, 12:24:57 am »

Democrats also picked up a House district in Missouri while filling a vacant seat previously held by a Democrat.

So we won the seat in Independence?
Yes.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2015, 12:35:57 am »

I would change my rating for this race from Lean D to lean R after the slaugher of Dems all over the nation but predictions appear to be locked now.

Except if you look outside Kentucky it wasn't really a slaughter at all... (Dems +3-4 in NJ Assembly, Dems hold all seats in VA Senate and +1 in HoD, Dems take over Public Services Commission, re-elect Jim Hood, and maintain legislative status quo in Mississippi, take over SCOPA, etc.)

Of course this is true, but people love to exaggerate when it comes to election results.

Tonight does basically look like a draw nationwide, but the voters Edwards needs are a cultural extension of the voters Conway needed.  Granted, he doesn't need as many of them because Kentucky doesn't have a New Orleans, but this is a legitimate bad sign for him.

One doesn't really have to do with the other. Edwards is running against a scandal tarred officeholder for an open seat, who is in turn overshadowed by an outgoing Governor who is heavily disliked and accomplished nearly nothing positive.
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