Rabbits, Turtles, and losers

[°Leprechaun]

Based mostly on current polls but also debate performance
4 Rabbits
4 Turtles
7 losers

The Rabbits lead now, but could burn out
=Carson, Cruz, Rubio, and Trump

The Turtles trail, but could pick up support
as candidates drop out
(especially Bush, but he needs to improve a lot before March)
=Bush, Christie, Fiorina, Kasich

Carson has lukewarm support
Trump is in gradual decline in IA and other states
Cruz could pick up supporters for Carson, Huckabee and a little from Trump (if any of them drop out early on)
Rubio could be competitive if the four turtles drop out

turtles combined poll numbers = about 17%
other than Bush they are all long shots
Christie is probably toast, Fiorina and Kasich
are probably toast, but are doing better than Christie

the other seven combined from Gilmore to Huckabee
have a combined chance of near zero (opinion, obviously)

The election is still a year away and a lot of this will change.
This is just a snapshot of how things seem now.

On the Democratic side, Clinton leads and Sanders seems like a long shot.
If he wins NH, he may beat expectations, but Clinton would still probably win.

No matter who her opponent is, Clinton still seems to have the best chance,
but the election could still be close, so don't crown her yet.

NOTE: This analysis differs a little from the latest Betfair odds.

I am more interested in how other posters differ on this than in what I have to say. I suspect Trump supporters will.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Based mostly on current polls but also debate performance
4 Rabbits
4 Turtles
7 losers

The Rabbits lead now, but could burn out
=Carson, Cruz, Rubio, and Trump

The Turtles trail, but could pick up support
as candidates drop out
(especially Bush, but he needs to improve a lot before March)
=Bush, Christie, Fiorina, Kasich

Carson has lukewarm support
Trump is in gradual decline in IA and other states
Cruz could pick up supporters for Carson, Huckabee and a little from Trump (if any of them drop out early on)
Rubio could be competitive if the four turtles drop out

turtles combined poll numbers = about 17%
other than Bush they are all long shots
Christie is probably toast, Fiorina and Kasich
are probably toast, but are doing better than Christie

the other seven combined from Gilmore to Huckabee
have a combined chance of near zero (opinion, obviously)

The election is still a year away and a lot of this will change.
This is just a snapshot of how things seem now.

On the Democratic side, Clinton leads and Sanders seems like a long shot.
If he wins NH, he may beat expectations, but Clinton would still probably win.

No matter who her opponent is, Clinton still seems to have the best chance,
but the election could still be close, so don't crown her yet.

NOTE: This analysis differs a little from the latest Betfair odds.

I am more interested in how other posters differ on this than in what I have to say. I suspect Trump supporters will.

I mostly agree with you. I think Rubio is far more fragile than his current numbers indicate, and fully expect him to crash before the primaries start. If I was conspiracy-minded, I'd say that the media are deliberately building him up now, so that his crash will be all the more spectacular. (Something similar may have been going on with Trump, who then failed to crash on cue.)

Jeb is still the strongest turtle, but he's also approaching a real danger point of being not just behind, but out of the race for failing to meet expectations.

In the final analysis, I really don't know. Jeb looks weak,  and while Rubio is superficially looking good, in my opinion he has poor fundamentals. Trump and Carson refuse to collapse. Things are far more open than I thought they'd be, although I still think the that what's most likely is that everything will shake out to the mean once people start voting, and we'll all look back at this as yet another primary season where we all thought it would be far more chaotic than it actually ended up being.

[°Leprechaun]

Based mostly on current polls but also debate performance
4 Rabbits
4 Turtles
7 losers

The Rabbits lead now, but could burn out
=Carson, Cruz, Rubio, and Trump

The Turtles trail, but could pick up support
as candidates drop out
(especially Bush, but he needs to improve a lot before March)
=Bush, Christie, Fiorina, Kasich

Carson has lukewarm support
Trump is in gradual decline in IA and other states
Cruz could pick up supporters for Carson, Huckabee and a little from Trump (if any of them drop out early on)
Rubio could be competitive if the four turtles drop out

turtles combined poll numbers = about 17%
other than Bush they are all long shots
Christie is probably toast, Fiorina and Kasich
are probably toast, but are doing better than Christie

the other seven combined from Gilmore to Huckabee
have a combined chance of near zero (opinion, obviously)

The election is still a year away and a lot of this will change.
This is just a snapshot of how things seem now.

On the Democratic side, Clinton leads and Sanders seems like a long shot.
If he wins NH, he may beat expectations, but Clinton would still probably win.

No matter who her opponent is, Clinton still seems to have the best chance,
but the election could still be close, so don't crown her yet.

NOTE: This analysis differs a little from the latest Betfair odds.

I am more interested in how other posters differ on this than in what I have to say. I suspect Trump supporters will.

I mostly agree with you. I think Rubio is far more fragile than his current numbers indicate, and fully expect him to crash before the primaries start. If I was conspiracy-minded, I'd say that the media are deliberately building him up now, so that his crash will be all the more spectacular. (Something similar may have been going on with Trump, who then failed to crash on cue.)

Jeb is still the strongest turtle, but he's also approaching a real danger point of being not just behind, but out of the race for failing to meet expectations.

In the final analysis, I really don't know. Jeb looks weak,  and while Rubio is superficially looking good, in my opinion he has poor fundamentals. Trump and Carson refuse to collapse. Things are far more open than I thought they'd be, although I still think the that what's most likely is that everything will shake out to the mean once people start voting, and we'll all look back at this as yet another primary season where we all thought it would be far more chaotic than it actually ended up being.

I didn't mean to imply that Rubio will crash, but I follow your logic here.