Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[RogueBeaver]

MacKay still contemplating a bid. Believe if seen.

[RogueBeaver]

Kady O'Malley crunches fundraising numbers, concluding that Kenney and Bernier are the best fundraisers.

[RogueBeaver]

Simpson profiles Deltell, suggesting he could be a contender. I highly doubt that, but he would be an excellent Quebec lieutenant for the next leader.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I've also thought Deltell could be a strong contender. Why do you doubt it?

[DL]

I've also thought Deltell could be a strong contender. Why do you doubt it?

I could see two major reasons why Deltell would NOT be a strong contender. Number 1, he has virtually no experience in national politics. he has spent his entire life reporting and being a part of Quebec provincial politics. He also has no ties or connection in the rest of Canada. Number 2, the only possible way i could see him as a contender would be if Maxime Bernier suddenly dropped dead, in which case Deltell could run as a sort of Quebec favourite son/kingmaker - but as long as Bernier is running there is really no room for Deltell in the race

[Poirot]

Deltell has said he is not running for leader.

There was an Abacus poll on the best choice for Conservative leader among eight potential candidates. Mackay and O'Leary are the top two. 

http://abacusdata.ca/cpc-leadership-mackay-leads-oleary-has-some-appeal-but-a-polarizing-impact/

Mackay is the only potential candidate to have a positive effect of people being more inclined to vote Conservative.

[RogueBeaver]

Leitch and Bernier entering this week.

[RogueBeaver]

Ivison is so much better than cheap trolling like this.

[DC Al Fine]

Ivison is so much better than cheap trolling like this.

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Oh FFS, his column reads like a bad Atlas thread.

[DC Al Fine]

On another note, what exactly is the appeal of a Leitch candidacy? She seems very inoffensive and second choicey, but I can't really see her first choice appeal.

[RogueBeaver]

There isn't any. Reds have Raitt & maybe MacKay, we Blues have Kenney, libertarians have Bernier.

[Poirot]

Maxime Bernier has the support of Jacques Gourde, MP for Lévis-Lotbinière.

Reading the Ivison article:

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Does the party establishment really thinks a MacKay win would provoke a split? It must be early Reformers or Harper inner circle types who treat almost everyone as enemy.

[RogueBeaver]

Ivison has said on Twitter he doesn't believe it will happen, but being discussed by senior establishment types. Probably the same guys who said Harper might resign after his Israel trip 2 years ago.

[DC Al Fine]

Does the party establishment really thinks a MacKay win would provoke a split? It must be early Reformers or Harper inner circle types who treat almost everyone as enemy.

Ivison has said on Twitter he doesn't believe it will happen, but being discussed by senior establishment types. Probably the same guys who said Harper might resign after his Israel trip 2 years ago.

This talk reminds me of people saying the Democrats were going to retake the House in 2014*. Sure its possible, but people ignore how extreme conditions were historically to create the event. The conditions in the Tories today in no way resemble what led to the creation of the Reform Party. There is no equivalent to R. v Mortgentaler, or Meech Lake, or GST to tear the party up.

*I.e. make sizeable gains as an incumbent party in a midterm election. 2014 was not 1934

[Linus Van Pelt]

A split under FPTP is total crazy talk.

With certain types of changes to the electoral system, it might not be so crazy. Indeed, under preferential ranked balloting, it might actually be advantageous to have a PC party competing for Liberal second preferences.

[DL]

Its not at all clear to me what exactly this "split" between the forces behind Peter Mckay and the old Harper crowd would be over. As has been pointed out - back when the Reform Party was created in the late 80s there were clearly major issues that divided Reformers from mainstream PCs under Mulroney such as the Meech Lake/Charlottetown accords, the GST, bilingualism, immigration, abortion rights etc... none of those issues exist anymore. Seriously apart from the fact that McKay's roots are in the old PC party - I can't think of a single solitary substantive issue where he and Jason Kenney would disagree. McKay had a number of senior cabinet portfolios and he always seemed 100% in lockstep with what Harper wanted and we never even heard any rumours that he disagreed with anything.

There are clearly some old Reform party dinosaurs from Alberta who just don't like the idea of being anyone from Atlantic Canada who was ever in the PC party...but beyond that this seems like the "narcissism of small difference"

[136or142]

Its not at all clear to me what exactly this "split" between the forces behind Peter Mckay and the old Harper crowd would be over. As has been pointed out - back when the Reform Party was created in the late 80s there were clearly major issues that divided Reformers from mainstream PCs under Mulroney such as the Meech Lake/Charlottetown accords, the GST, bilingualism, immigration, abortion rights etc... none of those issues exist anymore. Seriously apart from the fact that McKay's roots are in the old PC party - I can't think of a single solitary substantive issue where he and Jason Kenney would disagree. McKay had a number of senior cabinet portfolios and he always seemed 100% in lockstep with what Harper wanted and we never even heard any rumours that he disagreed with anything.

There are clearly some old Reform party dinosaurs from Alberta who just don't like the idea of being anyone from Atlantic Canada who was ever in the PC party...but beyond that this seems like the "narcissism of small difference"

I agree totally with this.  Other than McKay was first elected as an M.P for the Progressive Conservative Party (likely just a party of convenience for him) I have no idea on what basis he is regarded as a Red Tory.  While he never held an economic portfolio, on both social and foreign policy issues he was about as conservative as a cabinet minister can be in the Canadian political context.

[Poirot]

One issue MacKay disagreed with some in the party was moving to one person one vote to select a leader instead of the points system for each riding but that is not something to predict a split over. I'm curious if there were private policy disagreements.

It might be good in the general public for a candidate to express disagreement with Harper policies to show change but probably not in courting party members. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Let us not forget that it was MacKay who turned his back on the PCs by merging the parties. He had promised David Orchard he wasn't going to do that.

[2952-0-0]

Ivson even mentioned Stephen Harper returning to leadership!! The anonymous insiders say he's the only candidate who would run away with the leadership and keep the party united.

If hypothetically he did become leader, what would be the result of the 2019 election? Liberal 60% Conservative 25% NDP 10%, with turnout at 75%? And then, assuming the electoral system has changed, the CPC disintegrates?

[DL]

Ivson even mentioned Stephen Harper returning to leadership!! The anonymous insiders say he's the only candidate who would run away with the leadership and keep the party united.

I'm not so sure about that - a lot of Conservatives thought Harper was a big liability by the end of the campaign and privately seethed at his cold nasty personality and his hyper-partisan negative tactics.

[2952-0-0]

Ivson even mentioned Stephen Harper returning to leadership!! The anonymous insiders say he's the only candidate who would run away with the leadership and keep the party united.

I'm not so sure about that - a lot of Conservatives thought Harper was a big liability by the end of the campaign and privately seethed at his cold nasty personality and his hyper-partisan negative tactics.

Did these Tories seethe because of his nastiness or because the nastiness which worked in the past was not working anymore?

If it's the latter, this means the party hasn't entirely given up on him. And given the hyperpartisan way they've behaved since the election, I'm inclined to believe the latter.

If/when MacKay launches his bid, he'll immediately be dogged by his rivals by his decision to sit out the last election. Nobody likes quitters who shirk away from tough fights. Even if he ran for re-election and lost, he still would have been respected as a fighter, and someone would have gladly resigned for him. He'll be attacked during the candidate debates (which, of course, will be recorded by Liberal HQ). And if he's elected, the Liberal attack ads (intended mostly to demoralize Reform-Tories) will start the next day.

"Peter MacKay: He didn't stand with his colleagues. Will he stand with you?"

[Poirot]

Frpm inside the party MacKay deciding not to run might be a disadvantage but an advantage outside the party in creating some distance with the Harper loss. If he had ran and lost his seat, opponents could have said "He can't even hold his seat" and have to run against MPs who were re-elected.

Forum has a poll on who would make the best leader.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/001d342a-73b4-4291-97a7-98fdb819eab5Federal%20Conservative%20Leadership%20News%20Release%20(2016%2004%2006)%20Forum%20Research.pdf

Among all voters None of the suggested names option has double the vote for MacKay who slightly leads O'Leary. Among Conservative voters O'Leary is just ahead. Among Conservative party members O'Leary has a lead and Someone else option is second (that group is only 112 respondents though).

I'm surprised Kenney is in single digit in all three categories. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Kenney is not exactly a household name yet. Though his connections with the immigrant communities make him a front runner. Also note, immigrants don't answer polls, and are not factored into weighting.

[2952-0-0]

Frpm inside the party MacKay deciding not to run might be a disadvantage but an advantage outside the party in creating some distance with the Harper loss. If he had ran and lost his seat, opponents could have said "He can't even hold his seat" and have to run against MPs who were re-elected.

Voters don't care about what-ifs. All they see is that MacKay saw a difficult fight coming and chose to duck and cover. His rivals (except the mini-me Donald Trump) will view this as a betrayal and will ost definitely bring this up in the debate. He should have a good response, but you never know (see Mulroney's "You had a choice sir").

Kenney is not exactly a household name yet. Though his connections with the immigrant communities make him a front runner. Also note, immigrants don't answer polls, and are not factored into weighting.

Given how almost all the immigrant-heavy ridings voted, they clearly rejected the nasty and divisive Conservative message. And such tactics make many immigrants who were attracted to the party for its message of low taxes and responsible social policy feel betrayed. All the festivals Kenney attended in the past decade will have gone to waste.

He isn't a household name yet, but if elected leader, he sure will be courtesy of the Liberal Party of Canada. I can already see the attack ads where his face is photoshopped into Harper's head. His Twitter feed already makes Gerald Butts feel like a kid in a candy store. Maybe the Liberals should hire the same douchebag who voice-acted the Conservative anti-Liberal attack ads.