WA-Elway: Murray leads Vance by 20 points
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  WA-Elway: Murray leads Vance by 20 points
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Author Topic: WA-Elway: Murray leads Vance by 20 points  (Read 1050 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: October 22, 2015, 07:17:55 PM »
« edited: October 22, 2015, 07:28:15 PM by TNvolunteer »

Patty Murray (D): 43%
Chris Vance (R): 23%

However:

Just 41 percent of voters surveyed gave the four-term Democrat a positive job rating, while 49 percent rated her performance “only fair” or “poor".

The Elway Poll of 500 voters was conducted Oct. 13-15.

http://www.spokesman.com/blogs/spincontrol/2015/oct/21/elway-poll-trouble-murray-2016/

>Elway
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2015, 08:35:46 PM »

Murray at only 43% against a terrible opponent...wow.

Republicans need to get McMorris Rodgers in this.
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Bigby
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2015, 08:49:26 PM »

Murray at only 43% against a terrible opponent...wow.

Republicans need to get McMorris Rodgers in this.

I want to agree, but are you sure that the Democrats won't rush home to protect Murray?
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2015, 09:30:12 PM »

Elway actually overestimated Murray noticeably in 2010, but have a decent track record at the Presidential level. I suspect this poll is a case of there being too many undecideds...even 23% is below the Republican floor here.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2015, 10:45:45 AM »
« Edited: October 23, 2015, 09:24:26 PM by xingkerui »

Weird poll, but Murray is safe, end of story. If anyone thinks a Republican other than McKenna can make this close, they're either delusional, or know nothing about the politics of Washington.
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2015, 12:10:35 PM »

Murray at only 43% against a terrible opponent...wow.

Republicans need to get McMorris Rodgers in this.

Washington state resident here.

McMorris Rodgers would have a zero percent chance of winning statewide, just like every other candidate from east of the Cascades.  The Washington State GOP strategy, and the only way that they've been competitive in gubernatorial races in the past decade, has been running "moderates" from suburban King County.  And even then they still lose, though it's probably helped them down ballot and allowed them to hold onto the State Senate.

In a federal election, like this senate race, the GOP has absolutely no chance of winning.  The national GOP brand is just too toxic in vote-rich suburban King County.  2010 was only as "close" as it was because it was a GOP wave election.  Murray has a less than zero percent chance of losing in 2016.

Now Inslee, on the other hand, might've been vulnerable if the GOP could've recruited Andy Hill of Steve Litzow.  Instead they're running some no-name joke who will probably lose by double digits. 
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bgwah
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2015, 01:09:01 PM »

-8% job performance rating? Considering Elway said Cantwell was -10% in 2011, and has laughably high numbers of undecideds in all of his polls, I can't say I'm worried.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2015, 04:17:30 PM »

30+ undecideds is pretty useless.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2015, 08:19:29 AM »

I was wishing for better, but it doesn't look like a big deal right now (especially considering the pollster).
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