Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Great debate so far.

VdB: "I have a multipartisan coalition behind me, from SPÖVP/NEOS etc. - like Chirac against LePen in 2002."

Hofer: "Yeah, you have the political elite on your side, I have the people on my side."

[Classic Conservative]

Who is winning in their live poll.

[Tender Branson]

Who is winning in their live poll.

I assumed there would be one because a Kurier article said so - but they actually had no poll

[Diouf]

Faymann just resigned. Both as Chancellor and SPÖ head.

[DavidB.]

Today's a better day for Tender than his birthday.

[Sozialliberal]

In yesterday's TV debate, Hofer accused Van der Bellen of being supported by Freemasons from Berlin and Brussels. LOL, what a conspiracy nut! However, it's sad to think that this guy could actually become president.

Faymann just resigned. Both as Chancellor and SPÖ head.

Finally!

[aross]

Today is a great day for Austria and, hopefully, the SPÖ.

Häupl is interim leader.

I assumed Tender had been posting about this, but it appears not. Basically, the likelihood of him resigning was seen to been growing till Friday, but Faymann was felt to have shored up his support - particularly among provincial leaders, the trade unionists had almost all deserted him - over the weekend and by this morning it was thought he could keep his job. He apparently genuinely surprised anyone by deciding to jump rather than be pushed at a later point.

I'm far too busy right now to write all I'd like to write about this, so I'll just leave this here: I think any "business" leader would be disaster. Firstly, because they wouldn't actually be businesspeople, but an apparatchik from the SPÖ's extensive empire who got a cushy job for services to the party - ie exactly the cronyism people resent the former main parties (party-cartels, as I recently saw them called) for. Secondly, not only have both the main contenders of that type (Kern and Zeiler) yet to demonstrate an ounce of political principle. but they would presumably essentially warmed-up "Faymannism" (ie ineffectual backward-looking opportunism) with a fresh face. Of course, the alternatives are hardly any better...

[Sir Mohamed]

I'd never vote for a right-wing populist.

[Tender Branson]

I assumed Tender had been posting about this, but it appears not.

I was working, so no.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how this impacts A) the Presidential runoff, because Hofer was banking on a strong anti-Faymann mood. With Faymann gone now, one big target for the FPÖ has left the stage, even though SPÖVP of course still remains deeply unpopular.

And B) how it will impact a future snap election (most likely to be held in 2017).

[Tender Branson]

Comment from the FPÖ on the Faymann-resignation:

"Norbert Hofer is already effective (... like a pill) before he's even elected President."

Meanwhile, Hofer is in hospital because of food poisoning. Whatever this means => CONSPIRACY !

[Tender Branson]

My postal ballot for the runoff has arrived today ...

I will send in my ballot for Alexander Van der Bellen tomorrow.

Van der Bellen has made a good point in the TV debate yesterday that outgoing President Fischer was able to bring about 3 billion € in business contracts to Austrian companies during his 12-year terms in office. Van der Bellen would likely continue this, while Hofer would be a problematic officeholder for many international politicians and businesspeople. This and VdB's posters with the emphasis on CONSCIENCE (I was watching part of the WW2 liberation festivities in Vienna yesterday) made me vote for him after all. Because:

I'd never vote for a right-wing populist.

[Tender Branson]

Recently, Strache was once again playing the attack dog for Hofer and gave an interview to a major Italian newspaper in which he called for reunification of South Tyrol with North Tyrol or Austria and called Italian PM Renzi an "elected official who's a major people smuggler to northern countries".

Re-unification of South Tyrol with Tyrol/Austria is mostly a fringe issue these days and basically nobody outside the die-hard FPÖ-core and the Freiheitlichen in South Tyrol cares about this issue. I doubt most people in South Tyrol and Austria even want re-unification, because autonomy worked extremely well for South Tyrol.

Even the Governors of South Tyrol and the Austrian Tyrol attacked Strache on this, calling his statements "distracting and unneccessary far-right populism". Plus: even Renzi attacked Strache.

By the media it was mostly seen as an own goal for Strache and Hofer, because attacking foreign leaders and bringing up controversial re-unification plans are not helpful if you are hunting for centrist voters.

[Tender Branson]

The 2nd of 3 runoff debates will be held at ATV on Sunday at 8:15pm - using a Kreisky vs. Taus style debate format.



No moderator, no rules, no audience (except the TV audience). The candidates are choosing their own topics and debate them for 45 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

Hofer's latest newspaper ad was quite hilarious:



The word "erhalten" has 2 very different meanings in German:

"Only he wants to preserve the cash/paper money."

or

"Only he wants to receive the cash/paper money."

[Cranberry]

My postal ballot for the runoff has arrived today ...

I will send in my ballot for Alexander Van der Bellen tomorrow.

You didn't already order your second-round ballot with the first one?

But good that you vote for VdB! I voted a few days ago (I already had my second round ballot), my choice should be obvious.

You said your family all will vote Hofer? How is your circle of friends voting?

My friends are basically 100% Van Der Bellen, which is kind of self-explainatory if you consider my and their backgrounds: young, suburban-ish, middle-class to upper middle-class, nearly all with families with a high-education background, on road to higher education themselves (currently having the Matura this week, most will go on to study at a uni).

My family is more split: my sister, her fiancée and my mother are all Green-voters, so naturally VdB. My dad is more pro-ÖVP, but he voted blank in the first round; my mum and I persuaded him to vote VdB now though, it was more of a vote against Hofer. My grandparents are all very much ÖVP (rural-ish Tyrol, so naturally), and I suspect my dad's parents will vote Hofer. I'm not sure about my maternal grandparents, they are generally very anti-FPÖ, especially grandpa, so I hope they will vote VdB, but if not, don't vote at all or vote blank.

[Tender Branson]

My postal ballot for the runoff has arrived today ...

I will send in my ballot for Alexander Van der Bellen tomorrow.

You didn't already order your second-round ballot with the first one?

But good that you vote for VdB! I voted a few days ago (I already had my second round ballot), my choice should be obvious.

You said your family all will vote Hofer? How is your circle of friends voting?

My friends are basically 100% Van Der Bellen, which is kind of self-explainatory if you consider my and their backgrounds: young, suburban-ish, middle-class to upper middle-class, nearly all with families with a high-education background, on road to higher education themselves (currently having the Matura this week, most will go on to study at a uni).

My family is more split: my sister, her fiancée and my mother are all Green-voters, so naturally VdB. My dad is more pro-ÖVP, but he voted blank in the first round; my mum and I persuaded him to vote VdB now though, it was more of a vote against Hofer. My grandparents are all very much ÖVP (rural-ish Tyrol, so naturally), and I suspect my dad's parents will vote Hofer. I'm not sure about my maternal grandparents, they are generally very anti-FPÖ, especially grandpa, so I hope they will vote VdB, but if not, don't vote at all or vote blank.

My family and relatives are very much to the opposite of yours: I'm one of the only Green voters among them. Many have voted ÖVP in the past, but are voting for Hofer over VdB now. My mum will definitely vote for Hofer, as will my oldest brother (department manager, who's living in Tyrol). My other older brother (construction worker) is pretty uninterested in politics and won't vote. My sister (a nurse) voted for Hundstorfer in the first round and I have not talked with her yet about her runoff vote. My niece has first communion on the Sunday of the runoff, so the election will be a topic anyway when we are heading for dinner/coffee after church - so I will get to know how she and the relatives of her friend are voting. My uncles are strong Hofer-voters, as are their wifes. My boss has also said he voted and votes again for Hofer, like many of my co-workers. My friends are pretty split actually with some voting VdB. I guess education has to do with it: Most in my family/relatives have made an apprenticeship (without the Matura), while most of my friends and I have the Matura in the bag. You can also see that in the exit polls: People with apprenticeships are one of the most heavily FPÖ-voting folks out there, while Hofer only got 10-15% among people with a higher education ...

[Simfan34]

Hofer's latest newspaper ad was quite hilarious:



The word "erhalten" has 2 very different meanings in German:

"Only he wants to preserve the cash/paper money."

or

"Only he wants to receive the cash/paper money."

Why would paper money need preserving? Is Austria considering abandoning paper money, as Norway has been talking about doing?

[Omega21]

My postal ballot for the runoff has arrived today ...

I will send in my ballot for Alexander Van der Bellen tomorrow.

You didn't already order your second-round ballot with the first one?

But good that you vote for VdB! I voted a few days ago (I already had my second round ballot), my choice should be obvious.

You said your family all will vote Hofer? How is your circle of friends voting?

My friends are basically 100% Van Der Bellen, which is kind of self-explainatory if you consider my and their backgrounds: young, suburban-ish, middle-class to upper middle-class, nearly all with families with a high-education background, on road to higher education themselves (currently having the Matura this week, most will go on to study at a uni).

My family is more split: my sister, her fiancée and my mother are all Green-voters, so naturally VdB. My dad is more pro-ÖVP, but he voted blank in the first round; my mum and I persuaded him to vote VdB now though, it was more of a vote against Hofer. My grandparents are all very much ÖVP (rural-ish Tyrol, so naturally), and I suspect my dad's parents will vote Hofer. I'm not sure about my maternal grandparents, they are generally very anti-FPÖ, especially grandpa, so I hope they will vote VdB, but if not, don't vote at all or vote blank.

And why is it that Middle/Upper class people usually vote extreme Left?

Are they ignoring the mass rape/violent attacks and/or killings or what?

I get it that most don't want to vote FPO, but its just Extreme Left vs Extreme Right, there is no right side really, although Hofer has been playing nice in the recent past as Tender said...

I don't know, you Austrians should be proud of your culture and you People, the amazing country your ancestors built, except for a few ugly years (Nazism) i don't get why you are importing a ton of uneducated people from totally different cultures who don't want to fit in and just form parallel societies.. And you cant tell me it is not like that, it is. Yes you should help them, but only until they country is safe, unless they fulfill the legal Immigration requirments..

A street full of women in burkas is not Austria, I live with muslims, but they are a integral part of my country, being Slavs that adopted Islam a few centuries ago. Islam's not bad, but African/Middle Eastern Wahhabism is bad.

I know you probablly don't live anywhere near these problematic areas such as Praterstern, which gone to sh**t with all the recent Muslim gangs fighting/raping there. 7 crimes a day at just Praterstern..


And this is coming from me, and both my Great Grandparents were executed in '41 for being Slavs..

Most of you will probablly call me a bigot but whatever...

[Rob Bloom]

You don't really consider VdB as extreme left, do you? He is centre-left at best and he maintains that - while everyone has a right to seek asylum - there have to be good reasons before asylum is granted.

Looking ahead to the next debates: Will there be a live stream available for those of us who can't receive Austrian TV? 

[Tender Branson]

Why would paper money need preserving? Is Austria considering abandoning paper money, as Norway has been talking about doing?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e13cec74-120e-11e6-839f-2922947098f0.html

The FPÖ wants to preserve the paper money, because they think if the notes are abolished the government or the EU will be able to confiscate all the money of citizens in their bank accounts in a major financial power grab. As long as paper money exists, people can stash it under their pillows at home, where it is safe from the evil government ...

Looking ahead to the next debates: Will there be a live stream available for those of us who can't receive Austrian TV? 

I guess there will be a live-stream on the ATV page on Sunday, but I don't know if it works abroad.

[Tender Branson]

I voted:

  

[MaxQue]

Ing?

Engineer?

[Tender Branson]

Ing?

Engineer?

Yes. Hofer has a degree in airplane engineering. He worked for a major airline before he became an MP (Lauda Air, from F1-pilot Niki Lauda).

[Tender Branson]

Finally ... a new runoff poll:

MindTake Research (n=505, May 3-9, method: CAWI)

52.3% Hofer (FPÖ)
47.7% VdB (Greens)

Men: Hofer+14 (57-43)
Women: VdB+6 (53-47)

http://www.marktmeinungmensch.at/studien/protected/study_files/801

...

Never heard of this pollster, but this is the first time Hofer has led a runoff poll.

[Cranberry]

Hofer's latest newspaper ad was quite hilarious:



The word "erhalten" has 2 very different meanings in German:

"Only he wants to preserve the cash/paper money."

or

"Only he wants to receive the cash/paper money."

Why would paper money need preserving? Is Austria considering abandoning paper money, as Norway has been talking about doing?

No, and that is the weird thing about this, even for Austrian contexts, very strange issue. No one ever said anything of that like, no one supports or has even advocated for abolishing paper money. The ECB decided to scrap the 500€ note, which is good as noone ever uses it and most stores don't even accept it, and Strache + FPÖ took that up immediately to spin a narrative of "evil EU-(jewish-freemason-)Bankers want to steal good Austrian citizens paper money, namh namh namh" and for weeks have now been talking about how they "will preserve paper money" and whatnot - while noone has ever said they are against it...

Typical FPÖ behaviour, this sadly is the level political discourse has fallen to in Austria.