Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Presidential runoff on May 22 ?
#1
Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
#2
Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
#3
I'd invalidate the ballot
#4
I'd stay home
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Author Topic: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)  (Read 288410 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #425 on: April 24, 2016, 10:06:13 AM »

Only 11% for ÖVP should be part of the answer.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #426 on: April 24, 2016, 10:08:33 AM »
The race for the 2nd runoff spot is pretty tight, but I'd give the edge to VdB over Griss because the Greens historically do well with postal ballots.

And in this case, Hofer will be elected the next President over Van der Bellen.
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jaichind
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« Reply #427 on: April 24, 2016, 10:10:30 AM »
Looks like all the anti-open border immigration vote went to Hofer. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #428 on: April 24, 2016, 10:11:24 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on April 24, 2016, 10:08:33 AM
The race for the 2nd runoff spot is pretty tight, but I'd give the edge to VdB over Griss because the Greens historically do well with postal ballots.

And in this case, Hofer will be elected the next President over Van der Bellen.

If that takes place ÖVP will be finished and FPÖ will take over as THE party of the center-right.

Hope Merkel is paying attention.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #429 on: April 24, 2016, 10:11:27 AM »
Zell am See (city), 100% counted:

40.6% Hofer (FPÖ)
16.7% VdB (Greens)
16.0% Griss (Indy)
13.4% Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
10.2% Khol (ÖVP)
  3.1% Lugner (Indy)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #430 on: April 24, 2016, 10:14:22 AM »
Damn, Hofer is virtually sweeping the county map.

VdB has only won 1 district in Vorarlberg so far, by 0.1% ... !
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #431 on: April 24, 2016, 10:15:23 AM »
More motivated electorate... this kind of thing can happen.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #432 on: April 24, 2016, 10:17:31 AM »
Looks like Austria is becoming Poland 2.0

First a right-wing President, then a right-wing government ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #433 on: April 24, 2016, 10:19:10 AM »
Look at that map:

http://orf.at/wahl/bp16/#analysis/globus/winner

Shocked
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Omega21
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« Reply #434 on: April 24, 2016, 10:20:40 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on April 24, 2016, 10:17:31 AM
Looks like Austria is becoming Poland 2.0

First a right-wing President, then a right-wing government ...

Wouldnt have happened if the goverment didnt let 90 k people just enter and stay, it just isnt sustainable..

I saw sam talk on Oe24 that if Hofer is above 35 that could really shake up the goverment, in what sense?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #435 on: April 24, 2016, 10:22:02 AM »
Cranberry's hometown voted even more for Hofer than Zell am See: 44%.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #436 on: April 24, 2016, 10:24:56 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on April 24, 2016, 10:17:31 AM
Looks like Austria is becoming Poland 2.0



Pfff. Austria never will be as cool as Poland.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #437 on: April 24, 2016, 10:33:05 AM »
I also don't understand how the polls were so bad ...
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Cranberry
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« Reply #438 on: April 24, 2016, 10:34:41 AM »
Oh my.... This is incredibly sad, even disappointing - I would have thought that the Austrian population was at least slightly less racist, slightly less stupid.
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Omega21
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« Reply #439 on: April 24, 2016, 10:36:08 AM »
Saying that 44% of your town is stupid is very rude, why dont you stop every person in your town and tell him he is stupid..
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #440 on: April 24, 2016, 10:37:20 AM »
Quote from: Cranberry on April 24, 2016, 10:34:41 AM
Oh my.... This is incredibly sad, even disappointing - I would have thought that the Austrian population was at least slightly less racist, slightly less stupid.

I mean, we could see it coming (I was posting some figures yesterday showing Hofer's momentum and crowd size etc.), but outperforming the polls by 10-15% is weird - especially for Austrian standards where polling for federal elections is usually spot on.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #441 on: April 24, 2016, 10:45:51 AM »
Hofer (a native of Burgenland), flips this arch-arch-arch-red state to the FPÖ for the first time ever ... and not by a small margin:

42.8% Hofer (FPÖ)
17.5% Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
12.8% Khol (ÖVP)
12.7% VdB (Greens)
12.2% Griss (Indy)
  2.0% Lugner (Indy)

Burgenland voted SPÖ with 40-50% in all previous elections ...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #442 on: April 24, 2016, 10:46:00 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on April 24, 2016, 10:33:05 AM
I also don't understand how the polls were so bad ...

Election for a largely symbolic post, weird set of candidates, one particular section of the electorate rather more motivated than the rest. Its horrible but not surprising.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #443 on: April 24, 2016, 10:49:30 AM »
A Hofer vs. VdB runoff has the potential not only to be ugly but to divide many Austrian families ...
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🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
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« Reply #444 on: April 24, 2016, 10:49:41 AM »
If Hofer wins, do you think Austria will have the rebuke from the EU (like when the FPO were in government last?)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #445 on: April 24, 2016, 10:59:28 AM »
Vienna (60% of the precincts counted):

32% VdB
29% Hofer
18% Griss
13% Hundstorfer
  6% Khol
  2% Lugner
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #446 on: April 24, 2016, 11:02:40 AM »
Zell am See (district) now 100% counted:

41.5 Hofer (adjusted with the postal ballots tomorrow: ca. 40%)
15.8 Griss (16%)
14.4 Khol (14%)
13.9 VdB (15%)
11.8 Hundstorfer (12%)
  2.7 Lugner (3%)

Turnout will be around 70% with the postal ballots tomorrow.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #447 on: April 24, 2016, 11:06:57 AM »
3 states now 100% counted.

Hofer wins all 3:

Vorarlberg (31%), Carinthia (40%), Burgenland (43%)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #448 on: April 24, 2016, 11:08:39 AM »
No difference between high- and low-turnout areas.

In fact, Hofer wins high-turnout states by even bigger margins than low-turnout ones.

For example, Burgenland had 80% turnout and Hofer got 43% there.
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Omega21
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« Reply #449 on: April 24, 2016, 11:09:18 AM »
How likely is it that Hofer wins the 2nd round?
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