State Legislatures 2015

[Frodo]

What will be the partisan makeup of each of the following legislatures after November 3?

Here's the current make-up:

Louisiana House:

Republicans: 58
Democrats: 43
independents: 2
vacancies: 2

Louisiana Senate:

Republicans: 26
Democrats: 13
------------------------------------------------------------------

Mississippi House:

Republicans: 67
Democrats: 54
vacancies: 1

Mississippi Senate:

Republicans: 32
Democrats: 20
------------------------------------------------------------------

Virginia House:

Republicans: 67
Democrats: 33

Virginia Senate:

Republicans: 21
Democrats: 19

[Frodo]

Oh, I forgot one:

New Jersey House:

Republicans: 32
Democrats: 47
vacancies: 1

[Ebsy]

I think the Virginia Senate might flip to democratic control.

[/]

VA Senate looks like the only feasible switch, but it would still be very nice.

What the heck happened to VA House?

[Frodo]

Va. Democrats out-raise Republicans, but GOP has more cash

By Laura Vozzella
October 16

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Türkisblau]

What the heck happened to VA House?

Senate dem majority had a "gentleman's agreement" with pub House majority that both chambers had complete control over their own redistricting (ty Dick Saslaw, you f[inks]ing nonce.)

+ off-year elections

+ House dems being terrible fundraisers

[Türkisblau]

My best Virginia guesses:

Senate: Democrats are slightly favored to win the chamber 20-20 with Northam breaking the tie. This is just because Gecker is definitely favored to pickup SD-10 and Republicans are not especially strong in any other races; Edwards is going to keep his seat despite that strong left-indy bid IMO.

HoD: The money and turnout just isn't there for Democrats to do as well as they could so I'll go ahead and say 65-35. There will be a large group of close races to watch! At best, maybe three pickups for Democrats.

[smoltchanov]

Without going into too much details:

New Jersey - status quo (may be +1 seat in Assembly in any direction (specifically - in competitive LD-01 or 02))

Virginia: either 1 seat gain for Democrats in Senate or status quo again. About +2-3 seat gain for Democrats in lower chamber.

Mississippi: approximately the same numbers, but in Republican favor at the expense of white Democrats (the Democratic caucus becomes more and more "Black caucus" with every next election)

Louisiana: the most interesting because of election system. Senate - status quo (specifically - Republicans gaining SD-12 and Democrats - SD-24), probably about +2-3 Republican in House (specifically HD-41,  HD-32 and HD-39). But a lot of interesting intraparty battles, like SD-07 (long a fiefdom of  Heitmeier family despite being majority Black) and HD-72 (left open by Democratic governor candidate Edwards, also majority Black (5 Democratic candidates, no Republican), with 2 of his reported cousins running, one of which essentially runs on Republican platform, another - more centrist and more experienced)

[Türkisblau]

Virginia: either 1 seat gain for Democrats in Senate or status quo again. About +2-3 seat gain for Democrats in lower chamber.

We agree on something for once? Color me surprised!

[smoltchanov]

Virginia: either 1 seat gain for Democrats in Senate or status quo again. About +2-3 seat gain for Democrats in lower chamber.

We agree on something for once? Color me surprised!

Why? When i count - i am absolutely non-ideological. And this was a simple counting exercise. For Ph. D in pure mathematics (myself) - especially...

[Frodo]

Anyone have any final predictions they'd like to make? 

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm not going to predict exact numbers, but...

MS Senate: Republican increase, Safe R
MS House: Republican increase, Safe R

VA Senate: Democratic increase, Toss-Up (predicting Democratic control)
VA House; Democratic increase, Safe R

NJ House: Democratic increase, Safe D

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I'm not going to predict exact numbers, but...

MS Senate: Republican increase, Safe R
MS House: Republican increase, Safe R

VA Senate: Democratic increase, Toss-Up (predicting Democratic control)
VA House; Democratic increase, Safe R

NJ Senate: Democratic increase, Safe D
NJ House: Democratic increase, Safe D

Minor nitpick, NJ Senate isn't up this year (though yes, Dems would probably increase if it was)

Otherwise I agree

[Torie]

I don't think the odds of the Dems taking control of the State Senate in Virginia are very good - maybe a 1 in 3 chance at best. Sabato has a good analysis that leads me to that conclusion. It all depends on turnout of course in a low turnout election that favors the Pubs (particularly in the now Dem held NOVA seat). I suspect the Pub has a slight edge in the 10th SD that gets the most attention, and about a 50-50 chance to pick up at least one of two Dem seats.

[windjammer]

I don't think the odds of the Dems taking control of the State Senate in Virginia are very good - maybe a 1 in 3 chance at best. Sabato has a good analysis that leads me to that conclusion. It all depends on turnout of course in a low turnout election that favors the Pubs (particularly in the now Dem held NOVA seat). I suspect the Pub has a slight edge in the 10th SD that gets the most attention, and about a 50-50 chance to pick up at least one of two Dem seats.

I don't think they will pick up one of the 2 dem seats. But I agree with you that they will likely hold the toss up seat. 21-19 for the republicans after the election.

[windjammer]

I don't think the odds of the Dems taking control of the State Senate in Virginia are very good - maybe a 1 in 3 chance at best. Sabato has a good analysis that leads me to that conclusion. It all depends on turnout of course in a low turnout election that favors the Pubs (particularly in the now Dem held NOVA seat). I suspect the Pub has a slight edge in the 10th SD that gets the most attention, and about a 50-50 chance to pick up at least one of two Dem seats.

I don't think they will pick up one of the 2 dem seats. But I agree with you that they will likely hold the toss up seat. 21-19 for the republicans after the election.

Interesting.  My impression is that Gecker is favored in SD-10 but Parrish is now favored in SD-29, which would lead to R's maintaining 21/19.  In the long run, SD-29 will approach 75%D under its current lines, so hopefully it's just a one-term rental for Parrish.

Well,
For Parrish, I think he's the Monica Wehby of 2015. The seat is too dem friendly to be lost. Maybe I'm wrong but that's the feeling I get for this race.

For Gecker, people believe its a dem friendly. It isn't. It's a pure toss up, slight rep if I would say. But this will be close, but according to me the rep has a slight edge.

[Mr.Phips]

I don't think the odds of the Dems taking control of the State Senate in Virginia are very good - maybe a 1 in 3 chance at best. Sabato has a good analysis that leads me to that conclusion. It all depends on turnout of course in a low turnout election that favors the Pubs (particularly in the now Dem held NOVA seat). I suspect the Pub has a slight edge in the 10th SD that gets the most attention, and about a 50-50 chance to pick up at least one of two Dem seats.

I don't think they will pick up one of the 2 dem seats. But I agree with you that they will likely hold the toss up seat. 21-19 for the republicans after the election.

Interesting.  My impression is that Gecker is favored in SD-10 but Parrish is now favored in SD-29, which would lead to R's maintaining 21/19.  In the long run, SD-29 will approach 75%D under its current lines, so hopefully it's just a one-term rental for Parrish.

Well,
For Parrish, I think he's the Monica Wehby of 2015. The seat is too dem friendly to be lost. Maybe I'm wrong but that's the feeling I get for this race.

For Gecker, people believe its a dem friendly. It isn't. It's a pure toss up, slight rep if I would say. But this will be close, but according to me the rep has a slight edge.

In SD-29, Parrish is the better candidate, but the seat has become so Democratic.  Based on the 2012 Presidential results, it has a PVI of D+12.  Is there any Republican outside of Vermont that holds a legislative seat that Democratic? 

[Mr.Phips]

I don't think the odds of the Dems taking control of the State Senate in Virginia are very good - maybe a 1 in 3 chance at best. Sabato has a good analysis that leads me to that conclusion. It all depends on turnout of course in a low turnout election that favors the Pubs (particularly in the now Dem held NOVA seat). I suspect the Pub has a slight edge in the 10th SD that gets the most attention, and about a 50-50 chance to pick up at least one of two Dem seats.

I don't think they will pick up one of the 2 dem seats. But I agree with you that they will likely hold the toss up seat. 21-19 for the republicans after the election.

Interesting.  My impression is that Gecker is favored in SD-10 but Parrish is now favored in SD-29, which would lead to R's maintaining 21/19.  In the long run, SD-29 will approach 75%D under its current lines, so hopefully it's just a one-term rental for Parrish.

Well,
For Parrish, I think he's the Monica Wehby of 2015. The seat is too dem friendly to be lost. Maybe I'm wrong but that's the feeling I get for this race.

For Gecker, people believe its a dem friendly. It isn't. It's a pure toss up, slight rep if I would say. But this will be close, but according to me the rep has a slight edge.

In SD-29, Parrish is the better candidate, but the seat has become so Democratic.  Based on the 2012 Presidential results, it has a PVI of D+12.  Is there any Republican outside of Vermont that holds a legislative seat that Democratic? 

As of a couple years ago, there was a Republican in a >70% Obama 2008 district in Delaware.

If McPike can hold out, that would be great for VA Dems.  The west Richmond seat has been moving left about a PVI point per year over 2012-14, so I'm actually quite optimistic for Gecker and that would be a majority barring funny business with the indy in the Roanoke seat.

By the Delaware seat I assume you mean the one that Tom Horvath picked up in the special election a few weeks after Obama son in 2008.  Even that seat easily went back to Dems in the awful year of 2010. 

In SD-29, McPike just needs to get the usual Dem margins out of the PWC part of the district to offset Parrish's presumed big win in Manassas.  Again, I believe Parrish is the better candidate, but the seat has just moved too far for him to make it.  Of course, this is the same thing I said about Bob Dold last year....

[Gass3268]

Everything that I've read is that Democrats and outside groups (lots of Bloomberg money) into gotv and turnout operations tomorrow, like almost historic levels.

I'm predicting the Dems pick up the Senate and gain a few seats in the House. I could be totally wrong, too bad there hasn't been any polling. Parrish is a good candidate being the Mayor of Manassas, but he'd have to really hope for low turn out in some very Democratic areas of Dale City.

[Bojack Horseman]

Everything that I've read is that Democrats and outside groups (lots of Bloomberg money) into gotv and turnout operations tomorrow, like almost historic levels.

I'm predicting the Dems pick up the Senate and gain a few seats in the House. I could be totally wrong, too bad there hasn't been any polling. Parrish is a good candidate being the Mayor of Manassas, but he'd have to really hope for low turn out in some very Democratic areas of Dale City.

You can't beat high turnout. I'm feeling pretty confident for VA Dems today.

[mds32]

I am going to go out on a limb and say VA Senate goes 22-18 Republican.

I think the GOP holds the Richmond seat and then they take the Roanoke seat.

[Talleyrand]

Here are my predictions-

Virginia State Senate- Republicans will pick up 2 Democratic seats.
Virginia House of Delegates- Republicans will pick up 1 Democratic seat overall.

Mississippi Senate- Republicans gain about 2-3 seats.
Mississippi House- Republican supermajority

New Jersey House- Republicans win back 1 seat.

Will enter a prediction for Louisiana later.

[Gass3268]

Here are my predictions-

Virginia State Senate- Republicans will pick up 2 Democratic seats.
Virginia House of Delegates- Republicans will pick up 1 Democratic seat overall.

Mississippi Senate- Republicans gain about 2-3 seats.
Mississippi House- Republican supermajority

New Jersey House- Republicans win back 1 seat.

Will enter a prediction for Louisiana later.

Just like the Conservatives held on in Canada?

[mds32]

Here are my predictions-

Virginia State Senate- Republicans will pick up 2 Democratic seats.
Virginia House of Delegates- Republicans will pick up 1 Democratic seat overall.

Mississippi Senate- Republicans gain about 2-3 seats.
Mississippi House- Republican supermajority

New Jersey House- Republicans win back 1 seat.

Will enter a prediction for Louisiana later.

Just like the Conservatives held on in Canada?

I just think the Dems will lose the one VA state senate seat because of high GOP turnout.

[ElectionsGuy]

Here are my predictions-

Virginia State Senate- Republicans will pick up 2 Democratic seats.
Virginia House of Delegates- Republicans will pick up 1 Democratic seat overall.

Mississippi Senate- Republicans gain about 2-3 seats.
Mississippi House- Republican supermajority

New Jersey House- Republicans win back 1 seat.

Will enter a prediction for Louisiana later.

Just like the Conservatives held on in Canada?

Watch it though, Virginia Dems now have a history (2013 and 2014) of being overestimated.