Which way is your state trending?

[danwxman]

Pennsylvania is hard to tell.  I say it's trending very slowly to the right on the Presidential and staying put on the right on the state level.

In Southwest PA, you're right about the rightward trend.  However, that's not the case in the East.  If the GOP moderated their social views, I'll admit we're in trouble here, but even then I find wealthier voters in the Philly suburbs left-center to center economically because they yearn for job security, hate paying for trash and other GOP-like use taxes, and are petrified of losing the ability to pay for their mortgage.  A lot of these people are also heavily in debt, even though they have $300-500K homes. 

I agree, but the West is trending GOP faster than the East is trending Democrat.  Also, on the Presidential level, Republicans are doing slightly better every year in the T.

Montco is flying to the left, at least in terms of voting, not necessarily in party registration.  Out of the Republicans I've personally met who have identified themselves as Republicans, I bet just as many voted for Kerry as Bush.

Why has Montgomery county gone so left in the past decade?

There was an article in our local paper about the increasing migration from Philadelphia and Washington DC that is just really starting to take off....and in 25 years or so south central PA will be very similar to the Philly burbs. Hopefully in terms of voting, too.

[nini2287]

Pennsylvania is hard to tell.  I say it's trending very slowly to the right on the Presidential and staying put on the right on the state level.

In Southwest PA, you're right about the rightward trend.  However, that's not the case in the East.  If the GOP moderated their social views, I'll admit we're in trouble here, but even then I find wealthier voters in the Philly suburbs left-center to center economically because they yearn for job security, hate paying for trash and other GOP-like use taxes, and are petrified of losing the ability to pay for their mortgage.  A lot of these people are also heavily in debt, even though they have $300-500K homes. 

I agree, but the West is trending GOP faster than the East is trending Democrat.  Also, on the Presidential level, Republicans are doing slightly better every year in the T.

Montco is flying to the left, at least in terms of voting, not necessarily in party registration.  Out of the Republicans I've personally met who have identified themselves as Republicans, I bet just as many voted for Kerry as Bush.

Why has Montgomery county gone so left in the past decade?

There was an article in our local paper about the increasing migration from Philadelphia and Washington DC that is just really starting to take off....and in 25 years or so south central PA will be very similar to the Philly burbs. Hopefully in terms of voting, too.

My guess is that since we are very libertarian and the focus of elections has shifted from economics to social issues, Montco voting patterns have followed this trend (similar to NH and opposite of WV and the rest of the south)

[phk]

I think California is trending GOP.

how? why? has Gov. Arnold Schwarznegger really had that profound of an impact on California politics?  i was under the impression he was a one-time phenomenon. 

No he is irrelevant.

Take a look at the San Joaquin Valley, and its party registration figures over time along with its population increase.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Like I said, I think Oklahoma is trending ever so slightly from Right to Center-Right, especially east of I-35.  Remember, as you get farther east in Oklahoma you're getting closer to Arkansas (our next door neighbor) and have some Clinton-influence still lingering over in that part of the state in the eastern most counties. 

The DNC Chairman, Dr. Howard Dean was in Oklahoma City this past week (Friday and Saturday) encouraging our Democrats to take back our State House and strengthen their majority in the State Senate.  He also is encouraging them to retain the Governors Mansion.  Howard Dean, being the go-getter that he is, is not giving up on Oklahoma in 2008.  I personally think Elvis would have to rise from the dead in order for Oklahoma to go blue in 2008, but its nice to have dreams.

[Rob]

BushOklahoma, Bush got over 65 percent in Oklahoma last year and carried all 77 counties in the state. The Democrats certainly can't do much worse, so in that sense it will trend Democratic, especially with a populist who could run well in Little Dixie.

[MHS2002]

Virginia is trending ever so slowly but inexorably from the right to the center as the Washington metro area suburbs expand, and the suburbs nearer to DC mature and become more Democratic over time the way Fairfax County has done -this is assuming we're talking in terms of decades, and not in years. 

I would agree for the most part. I think that the Northern Virginia suburbs will move slightly to the left on the basis of social issues. However, the move to the left in Northern Virginia is offset in some respects by the move to the right in the Valley and Southwestern parts of the state. The belief that Virginia is somehow going to vote Democratic in Presidential elections in the next ten years is somewhat unfounded I think.

[Alcon]

Washington is staying put, overall moving a little bit Democrat because of growing urban areas.

I pretty much concur with this, especially considering even our newer suburbs are generally Democratic.

[Frodo]

Take a look at the San Joaquin Valley, and its party registration figures over time along with its population increase.

do you have a link i can look at? 

[phk]

Take a look at the San Joaquin Valley, and its party registration figures over time along with its population increase.

do you have a link i can look at? 

http://swdb.berkeley.edu/News_Info/ratify.htm

[A18]

I have no clue what Virginia is doing. All I know is we're supposed to be this 'very conservative' state, yet will still have both an income tax and a sales tax, and the income tax is not a flat tax.

[Smash255]

Virginia is trending ever so slowly but inexorably from the right to the center as the Washington metro area suburbs expand, and the suburbs nearer to DC mature and become more Democratic over time the way Fairfax County has done -this is assuming we're talking in terms of decades, and not in years. 

I would agree for the most part. I think that the Northern Virginia suburbs will move slightly to the left on the basis of social issues. However, the move to the left in Northern Virginia is offset in some respects by the move to the right in the Valley and Southwestern parts of the state. The belief that Virginia is somehow going to vote Democratic in Presidential elections in the next ten years is somewhat unfounded I think.

Fairfax has taken a sharp turn left the other D.C burbs may follow suit.  As far as VA going Dem.  In a landslide election, (PV by 6 or so) probably.  Other than that the Dems do have a chance of getting VA with Warner.  Warner has a lot of appeal in the rural portions of the state thare are moving right.  Warner running makes the D.C burbs fly even further to the left & offsets & possibly retratcts slightly the GOP growth in SouthwesternPA & the Valley  (obviously going against Allen dismisses this from ahappening)

[ian]

Center to right.

[AkSaber]

Alaska is staying put.

[MODU]

Virginia is trending ever so slowly but inexorably from the right to the center as the Washington metro area suburbs expand, and the suburbs nearer to DC mature and become more Democratic over time the way Fairfax County has done -this is assuming we're talking in terms of decades, and not in years. 

I would agree for the most part. I think that the Northern Virginia suburbs will move slightly to the left on the basis of social issues. However, the move to the left in Northern Virginia is offset in some respects by the move to the right in the Valley and Southwestern parts of the state. The belief that Virginia is somehow going to vote Democratic in Presidential elections in the next ten years is somewhat unfounded I think.

Fairfax has taken a sharp turn left the other D.C burbs may follow suit.  As far as VA going Dem.  In a landslide election, (PV by 6 or so) probably.  Other than that the Dems do have a chance of getting VA with Warner.  Warner has a lot of appeal in the rural portions of the state thare are moving right.  Warner running makes the D.C burbs fly even further to the left & offsets & possibly retratcts slightly the GOP growth in SouthwesternPA & the Valley  (obviously going against Allen dismisses this from ahappening)

Center to right with the ever increasing number of military and government contractors balancing out the DC sprawl.

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania is hard to tell.  I say it's trending very slowly to the right on the Presidential and staying put on the right on the state level.

In Southwest PA, you're right about the rightward trend.  However, that's not the case in the East.  If the GOP moderated their social views, I'll admit we're in trouble here, but even then I find wealthier voters in the Philly suburbs left-center to center economically because they yearn for job security, hate paying for trash and other GOP-like use taxes, and are petrified of losing the ability to pay for their mortgage.  A lot of these people are also heavily in debt, even though they have $300-500K homes. 

I agree, but the West is trending GOP faster than the East is trending Democrat.  Also, on the Presidential level, Republicans are doing slightly better every year in the T.

Montco is flying to the left, at least in terms of voting, not necessarily in party registration.  Out of the Republicans I've personally met who have identified themselves as Republicans, I bet just as many voted for Kerry as Bush.

True Dem, the East is also growing faster in population and the 9/11 effect will wear off in Bucks County.  I have suburban co-workers who are registered GOPers who outright disdain their own party and are thinking of switching to the Dems.  They are only Repub on paper because it looks better when dealing with their municipality.  That trend is dying rapidly with 2 new Dem Representatives in Montgomery County.  Phil will love this...  Yes, I am slightly worried about NE Philly, but not as much as I am western PA.  Some really nice neighborhoods are becoming racially mixed in Northeast Philly and those places shifted TOWARDS the Democrats.  Some are very tight knit and somewhat hostile towards "outsiders" those trended GOP.  Phil, I'm thinking some parts of NE Philly will become like Chestnut Hill!  <continue in PA 13 thread to avoid hostility>

[bgwah]

Washington is staying put, overall moving a little bit Democrat because of growing urban areas.

I pretty much concur with this, especially considering even our newer suburbs are generally Democratic.

Federally, at least.

The state GOP is adapting to fit Washington.

Still, there's that 43% of people who vote Democrat 100% of the time, and that 10% that votes Democrat 90% of the time, so the Republicans certainly won't have an easy time.

[Beet]

The D.C. suburbs are trending left whereas the Baltimore suburbs are trending right, to add up to an overall slight rightward trend.

[Alcon]

Washington is staying put, overall moving a little bit Democrat because of growing urban areas.

I pretty much concur with this, especially considering even our newer suburbs are generally Democratic.

Federally, at least.

The state GOP is adapting to fit Washington.

Still, there's that 43% of people who vote Democrat 100% of the time, and that 10% that votes Democrat 90% of the time, so the Republicans certainly won't have an easy time.

The state GOP is adapting to look like it is fitting Washington. Dino Rossi and his ilk were nearly elected because of weak Democratic candidates, and good personal images, as opposed to substance. The Washington GOP is still conservative - hell, even the Jefferson County GOP trumpets their strong dislike for gay marriage on the front page of their wb site.

[bgwah]

Washington is staying put, overall moving a little bit Democrat because of growing urban areas.

I pretty much concur with this, especially considering even our newer suburbs are generally Democratic.

Federally, at least.

The state GOP is adapting to fit Washington.

Still, there's that 43% of people who vote Democrat 100% of the time, and that 10% that votes Democrat 90% of the time, so the Republicans certainly won't have an easy time.

The state GOP is adapting to look like it is fitting Washington. Dino Rossi and his ilk were nearly elected because of weak Democratic candidates, and good personal images, as opposed to substance. The Washington GOP is still conservative - hell, even the Jefferson County GOP trumpets their strong dislike for gay marriage on the front page of their wb site.

Of course they aren't really moderating. Just more Republican lies. But they are trying to appear moderate.

[tarheel-leftist85]

SC (my state, for the time being) is definitely trending Republican in every aspect.  NC (my homestate) is a different story (I can hear the Republican protestations already!!!).  Pretty much everything state level is held by the Dems.  NC is one of the few places (VA, CO, NV are others) where Dems. are gaining ground.  I know most of my NC friends are Dems. (and I don't pick 'em based on politics!).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The belief that Virginia is somehow going to vote Democratic in Presidential elections in the next ten years is somewhat unfounded I think.

Unless the Democratic nominee can pull off a balancing act, that's probably accurate.

[Democratic Hawk]

Georgia is becoming increasingly safe for the GOP, especially now that they control the governorship and legislature

Dave

[WMS]

NM is staying put in the center of the left-right scale. It's more populist than libertarian - definitely - so as long as national politics breaks along the ideological cleavages we have right now, it will stay in the center. Of course, if the ideological cleavage shifts to populist-libertarian, then it isn't in the 'center' anymore.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Happily, TN is moving in the right direction.

[The Dowager Mod]

My state isn't trending anywhere.