Which way is your state trending?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Oklahoma in my opinion is drifting ever so slightly from the right closer to the middle.

[TomC]

Tennessee is sadly moving to the right.

[Rob]

Oregon is staying put (barring a major GOP victory nationwide), as a semi-swing state with a slight but fairly solid Democratic lean.

[jacob_101]

Minnesota is staying put.  Leans Democratic. 

[phk]

I think California is trending GOP.

[PBrunsel]

Iowa is going from Center to Center-Right. With the election of Nussle nexy year this will be assured. If Nussle some how loses, and I doubt that, i'll eat my hat.

[Erc]

New York is pretty much staying put.  Solid Democratic until Doomsday or realignment.

[True Democrat]

Pennsylvania is hard to tell.  I say it's trending very slowly to the right on the Presidential and staying put on the right on the state level.

[Ben Meyers]

Florida is trending from the center to the right on both state and national politics

[opebo]

I think California is trending GOP.

CA        DEM         GOP
2004 - 54.31% to 44.36%
2000 - 53.45% to 41.65%
1996 - 51.10% to 38.21%
1992 - 46.01% to 32.61%
1988 - 47.56% to 51.13%
1984 - 41.27% to 57.51%

Pennsylvania is hard to tell.  I say it's trending very slowly to the right on the Presidential and staying put on the right on the state level.

PA         DEM         GOP
2004 - 50.92% to 48.42%
2000 - 50.60% to 46.43%
1996 - 49.17% to 39.97%
1992 - 45.15% to 36.13%
1988 - 48.39% to 50.70%
1984 - 45.99% to 53.34%

Neither PA nor CA are moving Right or GOP.  I think it would be reasonable to claim they are static or moving slowly Democrat.

My own state, Missouri, is moving rightward, as we all know.
MO      DEM        GOP
2004 - 46.10% to 53.30%
2000 - 47.08% to 50.42%
1996 - 47.54% to 41.24%
1992 - 44.07% to 33.92%
1988 - 47.85% to 51.83%
1984 - 39.98% to 60.02%

[bgwah]

Washington is staying put, overall moving a little bit Democrat because of growing urban areas.

[opebo]

Florida is trending from the center to the right on both state and national politics

Actually I think it is a bit premature to label Florida as trending right in terms of national politics:
FL        DEM        GOP
2004 - 47.09% to 52.10%
2000 - 48.84% to 48.85%
1996 - 48.02% to 42.32%
1992 - 39.00% to 40.89%
1988 - 38.51% to 60.87%
1984 - 34.66% to 65.32%

[Jake]

And opebo falls victim to using the elections of the last twenty years as indicators of a trend.

[TomC]

And opebo falls victim to using the elections of the last twenty years as indicators of a trend.

I know! How dare he use actual DATA! Come on Opebo, spin or get off the pot!

[TheresNoMoney]

I would say that New Hampshire is trending from center to slightly left-of-center.

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania is hard to tell.  I say it's trending very slowly to the right on the Presidential and staying put on the right on the state level.

In Southwest PA, you're right about the rightward trend.  However, that's not the case in the East.  If the GOP moderated their social views, I'll admit we're in trouble here, but even then I find wealthier voters in the Philly suburbs left-center to center economically because they yearn for job security, hate paying for trash and other GOP-like use taxes, and are petrified of losing the ability to pay for their mortgage.  A lot of these people are also heavily in debt, even though they have $300-500K homes. 

[WilliamSeward]

Opebo obviously using your data beginning with 1984 will produce a "Democratic" trend no matter what. Its pathetic to resort to statistical trickery, especially when it is so obvious.

[Joe Republic]

Ohio has leaned Republican for most of the last century - only tending to vote Democratic in national landslides.  Now its moving to the center.

[MissCatholic]

Hmmm.... well at state level we are trending back to the right.

At presidential level...we are right..we will stay right and we will vote right until i get put into a box and put in the ground or i could burn!

[True Democrat]

Pennsylvania is hard to tell.  I say it's trending very slowly to the right on the Presidential and staying put on the right on the state level.

In Southwest PA, you're right about the rightward trend.  However, that's not the case in the East.  If the GOP moderated their social views, I'll admit we're in trouble here, but even then I find wealthier voters in the Philly suburbs left-center to center economically because they yearn for job security, hate paying for trash and other GOP-like use taxes, and are petrified of losing the ability to pay for their mortgage.  A lot of these people are also heavily in debt, even though they have $300-500K homes. 

I agree, but the West is trending GOP faster than the East is trending Democrat.  Also, on the Presidential level, Republicans are doing slightly better every year in the T.

[elcorazon]

Illinois is moving from center to left, but I suspect we have A one-term democratic governor in office.

[Jake]

And opebo falls victim to using the elections of the last twenty years as indicators of a trend.

I know! How dare he use actual DATA! Come on Opebo, spin or get off the pot!

Yeah, because using 3 landslide election results plus a three elections with a powerful third party isn't go to royally screw with trend lines.

Better, but still using old numbers, method.
Set the national average to fifty-fifty between the two parties, whatever the change made to get it there, add/subtract that difference to each state.

Ex: Florida

1984 - National  (R) 59 (D) 41
           State       (R) 65 (D) 35
           Adjusted (R) 56 (D) 44

1988 - National  (R) 53 (D) 46
           State       (R) 61 (D) 39
           Adjusted (R) 57 (D) 43

1992 - National  (R) 37 (D) 43
           State       (R) 41 (D) 39
           Adjusted (R) 54 (D) 46

1996 - National  (R) 41 (D) 49
           State       (R) 42 (D) 48
           Adjusted (R) 51 (D) 49

2000 - National  (R) 48 (D) 48
           State       (R) 49 (D) 49
           Adjusted (R) 50 (D) 50

2004 - National  (R) 51 (D) 48
           State       (R) 52 (D) 47
           Adjusted (R) 51 (D) 49

Opebo's model shows a thirteen point swing in the last 20 years, my model shows a slight (3-4 pt) swing from 1984-1992, but little change at all in the last 3 years. Opebo's model also shows a sharp drop from the GOP landslides of the 80s but a rise in GOP support since '92 due to Perot.
 
2004 - 47.09% to 52.10%
2000 - 48.84% to 48.85%
1996 - 48.02% to 42.32%
1992 - 39.00% to 40.89%
1988 - 38.51% to 60.87%
1984 - 34.66% to 65.32%

[nini2287]

Pennsylvania is hard to tell.  I say it's trending very slowly to the right on the Presidential and staying put on the right on the state level.

In Southwest PA, you're right about the rightward trend.  However, that's not the case in the East.  If the GOP moderated their social views, I'll admit we're in trouble here, but even then I find wealthier voters in the Philly suburbs left-center to center economically because they yearn for job security, hate paying for trash and other GOP-like use taxes, and are petrified of losing the ability to pay for their mortgage.  A lot of these people are also heavily in debt, even though they have $300-500K homes. 

I agree, but the West is trending GOP faster than the East is trending Democrat.  Also, on the Presidential level, Republicans are doing slightly better every year in the T.

Montco is flying to the left, at least in terms of voting, not necessarily in party registration.  Out of the Republicans I've personally met who have identified themselves as Republicans, I bet just as many voted for Kerry as Bush.

[Frodo]

Virginia is trending ever so slowly but inexorably from the right to the center as the Washington metro area suburbs expand, and the suburbs nearer to DC mature and become more Democratic over time the way Fairfax County has done -this is assuming we're talking in terms of decades, and not in years. 

[Frodo]

I think California is trending GOP.

how? why? has Gov. Arnold Schwarznegger really had that profound of an impact on California politics?  i was under the impression he was a one-time phenomenon.