Another Realignment guessing thread for '20

[bagelman]

Hint: The Republican incumbent was favored to win at first

[Kingpoleon]

Governor Blanche Lincoln(D-AR)/Senator Ann Kirkpatrick(D-AZ)
President Chris Christie(R-NJ)/Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers(D-WA)

After Vice President Rubio's assassination in late October of 2019, Christie's approval ratings soared. However, protests in Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana after he endorsed gay marriage occurred. While the majority of the public favored discussion with them, Christie sent in federal troops, refusing to back down. At the President's orders, the federal officers fired on the protesters, earning President Christie regard in the "law-and-order" cities. It would come at the loss of suburban and Southern voters, eventually leading to his defeat with 47-52 approval ratings.

President Christie goes down in history as one of the most divisive Presidents ever.

[bagelman]

Nope, that's not it at all.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A 3rd-Party candidate attracts Southern voters?

[Kingpoleon]

Nope, that's not it at all.

Hmm...

It looks like a somewhat libertarian Republican gains votes in Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Oregon, New Hampshire, Indiana, Kentucky, and Maine, while losing the South, but somehow doing extremely well in West Virginia. Almost looks like Kasich abandoned the South and picked Paul as his running-mate and promised West Virginia a slave army of Paulites.

[JonathanSwift]

Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination in 2016 against a scandal-plagued Hillary Clinton, and goes on to lose the general election in a landslide to a Republican ticket composed of Rand Paul and Shelley Moore Capito. Paul is very popular in the North and West, but alienates many Southern conservatives with his stances on foreign policy and some social issues. The Democrats, meanwhile, move to the center in response to their defeat, and in 2020 nominate Senator Mike Beebe of Arkansas and Senator Richard Carmona of Arizona (both elected in 2016). Paul is narrowly ahead until September, when a series of massive hurricanes strike Florida, Georgia and the Gulf Coast. The Paul administration's inept response to these disasters further damages him in the South and sinks his chances of re-election.

[Kingpoleon]

Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination in 2016 against a scandal-plagued Hillary Clinton, and goes on to lose the general election in a landslide to a Republican ticket composed of Rand Paul and Shelley Moore Capito. Paul is very popular in the North and West, but alienates many Southern conservatives with his stances on foreign policy and some social issues. The Democrats, meanwhile, move to the center in response to their defeat, and in 2020 nominate Senator Mike Beebe of Arkansas and Senator Richard Carmona of Arizona (both elected in 2016). Paul is narrowly ahead until September, when a series of massive hurricanes strike Florida, Georgia and the Gulf Coast. The Paul administration's inept response to these disasters further damages him in the South and sinks his chances of re-election.

It needs to hit Lousiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas too. Beebe won't just win Louisiana by bordering it.

... Maybe the New Madrid Fault hit, too?

[bagelman]

Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination in 2016 against a scandal-plagued Hillary Clinton, and goes on to lose the general election in a landslide to a Republican ticket composed of Rand Paul and Shelley Moore Capito. Paul is very popular in the North and West, but alienates many Southern conservatives with his stances on foreign policy and some social issues. The Democrats, meanwhile, move to the center in response to their defeat, and in 2020 nominate Senator Mike Beebe of Arkansas and Senator Richard Carmona of Arizona (both elected in 2016). Paul is narrowly ahead until September, when a series of massive hurricanes strike Florida, Georgia and the Gulf Coast. The Paul administration's inept response to these disasters further damages him in the South and sinks his chances of re-election.

It needs to hit Lousiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas too. Beebe won't just win Louisiana by bordering it.

... Maybe the New Madrid Fault hit, too?

This is the sort of scenario I was thinking of. Maybe 2020 is too early, and the shading implies a tea party run anyway.